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1.
An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual evapotranspiration [AET], runoff [R], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) for the past century indicates that P has been the primary driver of variability in R. Additionally, since about 2000, there have been increases in P, AET, R, and PET for most of the globe. The increases in R during 2000 through 2009 have occurred despite unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in R are the result of substantial increases in P during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases were relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months (April through September). Additionally, for the 2000 through 2009 period, the latitudinal distribution of P departures appears to co-vary with the mean P departures from 16 climate model projections of the latitudinal response of P to warming, except in the high latitudes. Finally, changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of departures from the long-term means. However, when put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water balance variable values, there appears to have been little change in any of the water-balance variables over the past century on a global or hemispheric scale. 相似文献
2.
利用NCAR_CLM4.0模式,通过有无植被冠层截留的试验对比分析,讨论了植被冠层截留对全球陆面水分和能量平衡产生的潜在影响.结果表明:就全球水分平衡而言,不考虑植被冠层截留时,全球平均土壤总含水量、表面径流和次表面径流增加,蒸散发减少.空间分布特征表明,低纬地区各水分平衡分量全年维持较高的差值分布,并随季节变化沿赤道南北振荡;北半球中高纬高值区有春季扩张、夏季极盛、秋冬季撤退的趋势.冠层截留消失后冠层蒸发的消失是蒸散发减弱的主要原因.对于能量平衡而言,不考虑冠层截留时,全球感热通量增加,冠层感热的增加明显大于地面感热的减少;潜热减少.此外,不同植被类型对不考虑冠层截留后产生的响应存在明显差异. 相似文献
3.
This paper deals with the most recent trends in meteorological and hydrological variables, which include air temperature and precipitation (P), potential and actual (ET) evapotranspiration, surface runoff (RO), water recharge into the soil (R) and water loss from the soil (L). Most hydrological variables were calculated via Palmer's algorithm. For this purpose, two rank-based statistical tests (the Mann?CKendall (MK) and a change-point analysis (CPA) approach) and the basic linear regression-based model were applied on the weekly precipitation and temperature from 17 stations all over Greece, during 1961?C2006. Only in winter, all variables except for R, which showed no clear signal, presented downward trends. The declining trends of P and L in spring and summer were counterbalanced by reductions in RO (and R in the case of summer) as opposed to increases in ET. In autumn, the declining tendencies of P and L were offset by RO reductions and R increases. Annually, the trends in water cycle components were analogous to that of spring, summer and autumn. The number of stations with statistically significant (at 95%) trends greatly varied with season and meteorological/hydrological variable. 相似文献
4.
Climate change in the Pacific Northwest and in particular, the Salmon River Basin (SRB), is expected to bring about 3–5 °C rise in temperatures and an 8 % increase in precipitation. In order to assess the impacts due to these changes at the basin scale, this study employed an improved version of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which includes a parallel version of VIC combined with a comprehensive parameter estimation technique, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) to estimate the streamflow and other water balance components. Our calibration (1955–1975) and validation (1976–1999) of the model at the outlet of the basin, White Bird, resulted in an r2 value of 0.94 which was considered satisfactory. Subsequent center of timing analysis showed that a gradual advancement of snowmelt induced-peak flow advancing by about 10 days in the future. Historically, the flows have shown a general decline in the basin, and in the future while the magnitudes might not be greatly affected, decreasing runoff of about 3 % over the next 90 years could be expected and timing of peak flow would shift by approximately 10 days. Also, a significant reduction of snow water equivalent up to 25 %, increased evapotranspiration up to 14 %, and decreased soil moisture storages of about 2 % is predicted by the model. A steady decline in SWE/P from the majority of climate model projections for the basin was also evident. Thus, the earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture and increased evapotranspiration collectively implied the potential to trigger drought in the basin and could affect the quality of aquatic habitats and their spawning and a detailed investigation on these impacts is warranted. 相似文献
5.
以富春江水库控制流域为研究区域,利用中国大气同化驱动数据集（CMADS V1.1）驱动SWAT水文模型,对富春江水库控制流域进行了逐日径流模拟,探讨了流域2008-2016年径流变化及水量平衡过程。结果表明：CMADS V1.1数据集驱动SWAT模型对研究区域的径流变化具有较好的模拟效果,在验证期,逐日模拟的效率系数大于0.70,决定系数大于0.75,达到了模型评价标准。在流域水量平衡各项中,地表径流和蒸散发为主要的输出项,分别占降水量的57.2%和36.2%,其中蒸散发量年际变化较为平稳。降水量、地表径流量、土壤对地下水补给、地下侧流量、蒸散发量最大值均出现在6月,最小值均出现在1月。流域径流量以地表径流为主,其在各个月份与月降水变化趋势基本一致。而基流量较小,且各月基流量对降水量的响应并不显著。 相似文献
6.
基于SWAT模型的汉江流域径流模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
应用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)分布式水文模型对汉江流域1971-2000年30年逐月径流进行了模拟.结果表明:模型模拟精度高于评价标准(模拟效率Ens>0.5,相关系数r 2>0.6),SWAT模型适用于汉江流域的径流模拟;水量平衡各要素中,30年月、年平均蒸散发量、地表径流量、土壤对地下水补给量、土壤含水变化量、地下水侧流量分别占降水量的55.97%、25.88%、17.64%、0.26%、0.25%,蒸散发是该流域水量的主要输出项;各月30年平均降水量变化趋势与地表径流量变化趋势较一致,而与基流量变化趋势一致性较差;30年流域降水量年变化趋势与地表径流量、基流量的变化趋势较一致;30年月、年地表径流量对降水的响应程度高于基流. 相似文献
7.
流域水文模型是区域水资源评价的重要工具,基于普林斯顿全球气象驱动数据集和澜沧江-湄公河流域（简称：澜湄流域）八个水文站实测资料,分析了澜湄流域不同区间的水文特性,采用RCCC-WBM模型（Water Balance Model developed by Research Center for Climate Change,RCCC-WBM）开展了区间径流及水量平衡模拟研究。结果表明：1）澜湄流域不同区间气候水文差异显著,上游气温低且年内变幅大,下游气温高年内变幅小;尽管不同区间降水、径流的年内分配特征总体一致,但径流的年内分布峰值大多滞后降水峰值一个时段。2）RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟出澜湄流域不同区间的径流过程,率定期和验证期的月径流模拟效率系数（Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency,NSE）均在60%以上,总量模拟误差（Relative Error,RE）也均控制在±10%以内,模型具有较好的区域适应性。3）模拟的土壤含水量都具有先衰减后增加再衰减的年内分配特征;不同季节径流和蒸发耗散的水源不同,降水是汛期水分耗散的主要来源,而土壤含水量是非汛期径流和蒸发消耗的主要水源。 相似文献
8.
Water stored as part of the land surface is lost to evapotranspiration and runoff on different time scales,and the partitioning between these time scales is important for modeling soil water in a climate model.Different time scales are imposed on evapotranspiration primarily because it is derived from different reservoirs with different storage capacities, from the very rapid evaporation of canopy stores to the slow removal by transpiration of rooting zone soil moisture. Runoff likewise ranges in time scale from rapid surface terms to the slower base-flow. The longest time scale losses of water determine the slow variation of soil moisture and hence the longer time scale effects of soil moisture on precipitation. This paper shows with a simple analysis how shifting the partitioning of evapotranspiration between the different reservoirs affects the variability of soil moisture and precipitation. In particular, it is concluded that a shift to shorter time scale reservoirs shifts the variance of precipitation from that which is potentially predictable to unpredictable. 相似文献
9.
The water balance model KAUSHA (Halldin, 1989) was applied to a 100-year-old beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forest in northern Germany. Overall, a satisfying agreement between modelled evapotranspiration values and independent micrometeorological measurements (Bowen ratio energy balance method) could be observed, although for rainy days KAUSHA showed a tendency to overestimate evapotranspiration. The model was used to predict the effects of a climate warming on the water budgets of the forest. It is shown that a temperature increase of 2°C due to a rising CO2 content of the atmosphere will not change the yearly totals of evapotranspiration significantly, but could have serious effects on the soil water balance during the vegetation period. Because under climate change conditions a higher amount of the available soil water has already been evaporated in winter and spring, soil water content will limit the transpiration of the trees from July to September much more strongly. Therefore, the yield of beech forest might also suffer from drought effects. It can be concluded that a better knowledge of the seasonal distribution of rainfall under climate change conditions is indispensable for predicting effects of rising temperatures and CO2 concentrations on ecosystems. 相似文献
10.
Jing Peng Wenjie Dong Wenping Yuan Jieming Chou Yong Zhang Juan Li 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(3-4):483-495
Numerous studies have shown that increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is one of the most important factors altering land water balance. In this study, we investigated the effects of increased CO2 on global land water balance using the dataset released by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 derived from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis second-generation Earth System Model. The results suggested that the radiative effect of CO2 was much greater than the physiological effect on the water balance. At the model experiment only integrating CO2 radiative effect, the precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff had significantly increased by 0.37, 0.12 and 0.31 mm year?2, respectively. Increases of ET and runoff caused a significant decrease of soil water storage by 0.05 mm year?2. However, the results showed increases of runoff and decreases of precipitation and ET in response to the CO2 fertilisation effect, which resulted into a small, non-significant decrease in the land water budget. In the Northern Hemisphere, especially on the coasts of Greenland, Northern Asia and Alaska, there were obvious decreases of soil water responding to the CO2 radiative effect. This trend could result from increased ice–snow melting as a consequence of warmer surface temperature. Although the evidence suggested that variations in soil moisture and snow cover and vegetation feedback made an important contribution to the variations in the land water budget, the effect of other factors, such as aerosols, should not be ignored, implying that more efforts are needed to investigate the effects of these factors on the hydrological cycle and land water balance. 相似文献
11.
The changes in hydrological processes in the Yellow River basin were simulated by using the Community Land Model(CLM,version 3.5),driven by historical climate data observed from 1951 to 2008.A comparison of modeled soil moisture and runoff with limited observations in the basin suggests a general drying trend in simulated soil moisture,runoff,and precipitation-evaporation balance(P-E) in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the observation period.Furthermore,annual soil moisture,runoff,and P-E averaged over the entire basin have declined by 3.3%,82.2%,and 32.1%,respectively.Significant drying trends in soil moisture appear in the upper and middle reaches of the basin,whereas a significant trend in declining surface runoff and P-E occurred in the middle reaches and the southeastern part of the upper reaches.The overall decreasing water availability is characterized by large spatial and temporal variability. 相似文献
12.
Abstract Second generation land surface schemes are the subject of much development activity among atmospheric modellers. This work is aimed at, among other things, improving the representation of the soil water balance in order to simulate, more properly, exchanges with the atmosphere and to permit the use of model output to generate streamflow for model validation. The Canadian development program is centred on CLASS, the Canadian Land Surface Scheme, developed at Environment Canada. This paper focuses on the improvement of hydrology in CLASS. This was accomplished by designing a two‐way interface to WATFLOOD, a distributed hydrologic model developed at the University of Waterloo. The two models share many features, which facilitated the coupling procedure. The interface retains the three‐layer vertical moisture budget representation in CLASS but adds three horizontal runoff possibilities. Runoff from the surface water follows Manning's equation for overland flow. Interflow is generated from the near‐surface soil layer using a parametrization of Richard's equation and base flow is produced by Darcian flow from the bottom of layer 3. An approximation of the internal topography of grid elements is used to supply horizontal gradients for the runoff components. Tests are in progress in four Canadian study areas. Initial results are presented for the summer of 1993 for the Saugeen River in southwestern Ontario. The new scheme produces realistic hydrographs, whereas the old scheme did not. Bare ground evaporation is reduced by about 17% as a consequence of reduced water availability in layer 1. Evapotranspiration is not affected because the rooting depth extends into layer 3, in which soil moisture does not change appreciably with the new scheme. These results suggest that the new scheme improves the representation of streamflow in WATFLOOD/CLASS and of the soil moisture budget in CLASS. Work is in progress to validate this result over basins, such as the BOREAS study watersheds, where both runoff and evapotranspiration measurements are available. 相似文献
13.
Zh. A. Balonishnikova O. I. Krestovskii V. A. Shutov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2010,35(12):832-841
Results of detecting water balance components of experimental watersheds from long-term observations at the Valdai Affiliation
of the SHI are presented. Methods of measurements, calculations, and corrections of precipitation amount, measurement of evaporation
from the land, changes in the soil moisture reserves and ground water reserves are considered. All components of the water
balance of watersheds are measured independently which allows estimating quantitatively the residuals and measurement and
calculation errors. A preliminary analysis is performed of seasonal values of the water balance components and their changes
in the period of most intensive observations (1952–1985) which is of a great value for studying the conditions of the river
runoff formation in small watersheds. 相似文献
14.
Sensitivity of Runoff, Soil Moisture and Reservoir Design to Climate Change in Central Indian River Basins 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
R. Mehrotra 《Climatic change》1999,42(4):725-757
Climate change due to a doubling of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its possible impacts on the hydrological cycle are a matter of growing concern. Hydrologists are specifically interested in an assessment of the impacts on the occurrence and magnitude of runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture and their temporal and spatial redistribution. Such impacts become all the more important as they may also affect the water availability in the storage reservoirs. This paper examines the regional effects of climate change on various components of the hydrologic cycle viz., surface runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration for three drainage basins of central India. Plausible hypothetical scenarios of precipitation and temperature changes are used as input in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. The influences of climate change on flood, drought, and agriculture are highlighted. The response of hypothetical reservoirs in these drainage basins to climate variations has also been studied. Results indicate that the basin located in a comparatively drier region is more sensitive to climatic changes. The high probability of a significant effect of climate change on reservoir storage, especially for drier scenarios, necessitates the need of a further, more critical analysis of these effects. 相似文献
15.
黄河源区径流减少的原因探讨 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
分析了黄河源区1960~2000年气候变化特点,对蒸发进行了估算,并分析了植被和冻土的变化,对径流在20世纪90年代后明显减少的原因进行了探讨。结果表明,黄河源区气温在20世纪80年代中期后明显增加,降水在90年代偏少,气候向暖干方向发展,但蒸发变化不大,径流减少的直接原因是降水的减少;在90年代后降水强度的减弱也可能是径流减少的重要原因;归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据显示植被在90年代后期呈现退化的趋势,冻土在80年代以后表现出的明显的退化趋势,植被冻土的退化可以使得冻结层上水位下移,土壤水向土壤下层的渗漏增加,也会造成径流的减少。 相似文献
16.
Summary Water stored in the soil serves as a reservoir for the evapotranspiration (ET) process on land surfaces, therefore knowledge of the soil moisture content is important for partitioning the incoming solar radiation into latent and sensible heat components. There is no remote sensing technique which directly observes the amount of water in this reservoir, however microwave remote sensing at long wavelengths (>10 cm) can give estimates of the moisture stored in the surface 5-cm layer of the soil. This approach is based on the large dielectric contrast between water and dry soil, resulting in emissivity changes from 0.96 for a dry smooth soil to less than 0.6.In this paper, basic relationships between soil moisture and emissivity are described using both theory and observations from various platforms. The ability of the approach to be extended to large regions has been demonstrated in several aircraft mapping experiments, e.g., FIFE, Monsoon 90, Washita 92 and HAPEX Sahel. Some results from Monsoon 90 are presented here. Applications of these soil moisture maps in runoff prediction, rainfall estimation, determining the direct evaporation from the soil surface and serving as a boundary condition for soil profile models are presented.With 10 Figures 相似文献
17.
We evaluate water budget components—namely, soil moisture, runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage (TWS)—simulated by the Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) in China, a large geographic domain challenging for hydrological modeling due to poor observational data and a lack of one single parameterization that can fit for complex hydrological processes. By comparing the model simulations with multi-source reference data, we show that Noah-MP can generally reproduce the overall spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and evapotranspiration over six major river basins, with the annual correlation coefficients generally greater than 0.8 and the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient exceeding 0.5. Among the six basins evaluated, the best model performance is seen over the Huaihe River basin. The temporal trend of the modeled TWS anomalies agrees well with GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) observations, capturing major flood and drought events in different basins. Experiments with 12 selected physical parameterization options show that the runoff parameterization has a stronger impact on the simulated soil moisture–runoff–evapotranspiration relationships than the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance schemes, a result consistent with previous studies. Overall, Noah-MP driven by GLDAS forcing simulates the hydrological variables well, except for the Songliao basin in northeastern China, likely because this is a transitional region with extensive freeze–thaw activity, while representations of human activities may also help improve the model performance. 相似文献
18.
Kun Yang Baisheng Ye Degang Zhou Bingyi Wu Thomas Foken Jun Qin Zhaoye Zhou 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):517-534
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) surfaces have been experiencing an overall rapid warming and wetting while wind speed and solar radiation have been declining in the last three decades. This study investigated how climate changes influenced the hydrological cycle on the TP during 1984??2006. To facilitate the analysis, a land surface model was used to simulate surface water budget at all CMA (China Meteorological Administration) stations on the TP. The simulated results were first validated against observed ground temperature and observation-derived heat flux on the western TP and observed discharge trends on the eastern TP. The response of evaporation and runoff to the climate changes was then analyzed. Major finding are as follows. (1) Surface water balance has been changed in recent decades. Observed precipitation shows insignificant increasing trends in central TP and decreasing trends along the TP periphery while evaporation shows overall increasing trends, leading to decreased discharge at major TP water resource areas (semi-humid and humid zones in the eastern and southern TP). (2) At the annual scale, evaporation is water-limited in dry areas and energy-limited (radiation and air temperature) in wet areas; these constraints can be interpreted by the Budyko-curve. Evaporation in autumns and winters was strongly controlled by soil water storage in summers, weakening the dependence of evaporation on precipitation at seasonal scales. (3) There is a complementary effect between the simulated actual evaporation and potential evaporation, but this complementary relationship may deviate from Bouchet??s hypothesis when vapor pressure deficit (or air temperature) is too low, which suppresses the power of vapor transfer. 相似文献
19.
H. Soegaard B. Hasholt T. Friborg C. Nordstroem 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2001,70(1-4):35-51
Summary Within the framework of the European LAPP-project (Land Arctic Physical Processes) and as part of the Danish Research Council’s
Polar Programme, studies on water- and surface energy balance in NE Greenland were conducted in 1996 and 1997. Eddy correlation
measurements of water vapour and sensible heat fluxes above the three dominant vegetation types: fen, willow snowbed, and
heath were conducted for the entire growing season. This was supplemented by measurements of evaporation from snow covered
areas and from a small pond. The evapotranspiration was found to be relatively high with the maximum from the fen (≈86 mm
per season). For the two other vegetation types the evapotranspiration was less, for heath 61 mm per season, while willow
snowbed had evaporation rates on intermediate level. By use of the Penman-Monteith equation it was possible to estimate the
altitude dependence of the evapotranspiration and calculate the annual evaporation for the whole area to 80 mm per year. By
applying a bucket model the evaporation was found to be in accordance with changes in soil moisture as monitored with TDR.
The observed surface water balance was compared to river discharge, which shows a glacio-nival regime with an early spring
flow (June), determined by the snow melt in the main valley and an July–August maximum determined by melt on higher plateau
areas. When balancing the individual hydrological components an annual deficit of 180 mm was observed, but it was found that
this deficit could be reduced by correcting for aerodynamic and altitude effects on the precipitation. Finally some of the
possible consequences of a global warming is discussed in relation to the water and energy balance in the high-arctic ecosystem.
Received November 1, 1999 Revised May 15, 2000 相似文献
20.
冬小麦农田日蒸散量的计算 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
本文从小气候观测资料着手，采用彭曼法、能量平衡法、波温比法和空气动力学等方法，对处于抽穗至乳熟期的冬小麦农田日蒸散量做了尝试性计算。着重考虑了彭曼公式的修正，并以水量平衡法为标准，对以上各方法的精度做了评价与误差分析。结果表明，订正后的彭曼公式可较为准确地计算各种能量、水分供应条件下有作物覆盖农田的日蒸散量，其它方法则存在较明显的不确定性误差。 相似文献