共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 171 毫秒
1.
2.
3.
一个气候系统模式对小冰期外强迫变化的平衡态响应 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl, 通过设定小冰期的太阳辐射变化, 模拟了小冰期的气候平衡态, 讨论了小冰期气候变化的机理。数值试验结果表明, 由太阳辐照度变化和火山活动共同作用造成的太阳辐射减少是小冰期气候的重要成因, 模拟的小冰期表层气温变化分布与重建资料在全球大多数地区较为一致。就全球平均情况而言, 小冰期的年平均气温较之1860年偏冷0.15℃, 较之20世纪平均情况偏冷0.6℃左右。小冰期温度变化存在显著的地域和季节特征, 表现为北半球降温幅度大于南半球, 高纬地区降温幅度大于低纬地区, 夏季的降温幅度大于冬季。东亚地区小冰期温度较之1860年和20世纪分别偏冷0.3℃和0.6℃。小冰期的降水异常中心位于低纬地区, 主要表现为赤道中东太平洋降水负异常和赤道中西太平洋降水正异常, 以及位于热带印度洋的降水偶极子型。除欧洲和北美外, 全球其他地区陆地降水均减少。东亚地区小冰期夏季降水的变化最为显著, 较之1860年, 华北、 东北地区降水增加, 而长江流域以南降水则减少; 较之20世纪, 东部降水异常表现出华北地区偏多、长江流域偏少、华南地区偏多的“三极型” 分布特征。 相似文献
4.
中国东部大气温湿廓线特征及其对辐射收支计算影响的分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
辐射平衡是气候决定性因素之一, 温湿廓线对辐射计算有重要影响。利用中国东部地区1960—2008年74个探空站资料, 将SBDART（Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer）辐射传输模式自带的大气温湿廓线和探空测得的实际大气温湿廓线进行对比, 并代入SBDART模式中, 分别计算晴空条件下不同温湿廓线对辐射通量的影响。结果表明:（1）中国东部地区的大气温湿廓线有明显的区域和季节特点;（2）模式地面向下辐射通量与实际相比有较明显差异, 尤其是在东北地区的冬季、中东部地区的夏季和华南地区的冬季, 差值达20—35 W/m2, 相对误差达2.01%—3.18%;（3）在东北地区的冬季、中东部地区的冬季以及华南地区的夏、冬季, 模式计算的大气顶向上辐射通量与实际相比差值达10—22 W/m2, 相对误差可达3.67%—8.94%;（4）模式与实际辐射加热率的差值在0.03—0.29 K/d。研究表明, 模式自带的大气温湿廓线区域和季节划分并不够细致, 不足以代表中国东部地区各个区域及季节的温湿特点。建立一套中国东部地区的大气标准廓线可以为辐射模拟提供更准确的输入量。 相似文献
5.
利用连南县1965—2014年的气象资料,对连南县的气候特征进行了统计分析,并结合温湿指数、风寒指数和综合舒适度指数对连南县近50年来的旅游气候舒适度进行定量评价。结果表明:连南县旅游气候资源丰富,气候温和、热量丰富、雨量充沛、冬短夏长、春秋过渡快;山区立体气候特征明显,东部的气温明显高于北部、西南部,而中南部地区雨量最多;近50年来,连南县温湿指数呈明显的上升趋势,上升速率为0.017/年;综合舒适度指数下降趋势较明显,下降速率为-0.009/年;风寒指数变化趋势不明显;适宜旅游的月份为4、5、10和11月,其中4和10月为最佳旅游月份。 相似文献
6.
利用冰芯、树轮、石笋、湖泊沉积和历史文献等多种代用资料进行小冰期的研究已取得了较大进展。研究表明：小冰期是全球性的气候异常期，时间跨度约为500 a (1400-1900 AD)；小冰期气候变化的干（湿）/冷（暖）配置在全球存在区域性差异，其变化幅度、起讫和持续时间也因地而异。小冰期气候的形成，受到太阳、火山活动、大气环流，以及大气、海洋和陆地间相互作用的影响。综合分析小冰期在全球的时空分布特点和形成的可能原因，对小冰期研究中仍未解决的主要问题及今后研究的重点进行了展望。 相似文献
7.
南京地区蛋鸡生产热应激影响的特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对南京地区夏季高温高湿的气候特征，分别分析了温度、湿度及温湿综合因子（温湿指数）对蛋鸡生产的影响，确定了该地区热应激发生的时间及强度特征。结果表明：该地区热应激发生于６、７、８月，严重热应激主要集中在７月中旬￣８月上旬，尤其在７月下旬。 相似文献
8.
1951-2005年中国区域气候变化与干旱化趋势 总被引：27，自引：0，他引：27
摘 要：利用1951-2006年中国区域160个站的月降水及月平均气温资料,对中国区域近56 a气候要素的变化及其与干旱化联系的事实进行了分析。结果表明：降水减少的地区主要位于我国北方的西北东部、华北及东北;在南方,西南的降水减少趋势与上述地区具有类似特征。气温基本为增温趋势,而西北东部及西南地区气温也在20世纪80年代发生转折性变化,由80年代中期以前的降温趋势转为其后的增温趋势。地表湿润指数分析的结果指出：我国西北东部、华北、东北及西南地区当前正处于一个干旱化过程,但不同地区干湿变化特征及干旱化的持续时间和位相却有差别。 相似文献
9.
2000年以来中国区域植被变化及其对气候变化的响应 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
气候是植被变化的主要驱动因子,研究全球增暖背景下中国区域植被变化及其对气候的响应对于国家开展重大生态恢复评估和未来植被保护政策制定具有重要意义。利用2000-2016年MODIS植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)数据集,运用统计分析方法,从平均态、线性趋势、时间序列、相关性等方面系统分析了2000年以来中国区域植被变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:中国区域NDVI在平均态上呈现从东南向西北递减的空间分布,受降水生长季的影响,东部地区植被指数明显较大;我国大部分地区NDVI呈现增加的趋势,其中湿润半湿润地区NDVI增长幅度为0.037·(10a)-1,而在干旱半干旱地区变化较小[0.013·(10a)-1]。NDVI的变化与气候驱动因素的相关性存在一定的区域差异,其中:NDVI与气温变化在东南沿海、东北东部以及青藏高原北部等地区呈现出显著正相关,而在青藏高原南部等地区呈现微弱的负相关;除青藏高原、塔里木盆地和东北北部等地区外,NDVI与降水量在全国大多数地区呈正相关。从全国平均来看,温度和降水变化对NDVI的贡献分别为7.5%和9.1%,其中温度对NDVI变化的贡献主要体现在湿润半湿润地区(9.3%),而降水的贡献则在干旱半干旱地区(12.2%)。植被变化对气候要素驱动的响应也呈现出明显的区域差异性,在我国东南沿海、云贵高原东部、四川盆地等南方地区以及黄河中下游、东北东部等部分地区,NDVI变化对气温的敏感性最强;而在中国北方干旱半干旱大部分地区,NDVI变化则是对降水驱动具有很显著的响应特征。总体而言,气温是驱动南方地区植被变化的主导因子,而降水则调控着北方地区植被生长变化。 相似文献
10.
采用正交小波分解研究了近2 ka来青藏高原古里雅冰芯记录的气温和冰川积累量演变多尺度特征,得到了与构成序列中主要气候事件对应的尺度分量。用130 a尺度以上分量几乎可以重建冰芯记录中的主要冷暖或干湿气候事件。平均而言,温度和冰川积累量配置在大多数时间尺度上都呈正相关,即暖湿/冷干配置,但在130 a尺度上是负相关,即冷湿/暖干配置。20世纪以来的快速增暖增湿发生在260 a尺度上。线性增暖趋势和千年尺度分量都是暖湿/冷干配置并占有较大的方差,它们在很大程度上左右着百年尺度上的温湿配置。二者的结合直接导致千年尺度上温湿配置在8世纪出现由冷湿/暖干向暖湿/冷干气候型的转变。 相似文献
11.
We review here proxy records of temperature and precipitation in China during the Holocene, especially the last two millennia. The quality of proxy data, methodology of reconstruction, and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperature and precipitation reconstruction and clarifying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene. The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet. The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP, whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.0-5.0 cal ka BP. There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes. During past two millennia, a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected, but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene. Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age （AD 1400-AD 1900）, but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period （AD 900-AD 1300） was not distinct in China, especially west China. The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China, especially east China. The modern warm period has lasted 20 years from 1987 to 2006. Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium. 相似文献
12.
We review here proxy records of temperatare and precipitation in China during the Holocene,especially the last two millennia.The quality of proxy data,methodology of reconstruction,and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperatare and precipitation reconstruction and clarilying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene.The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet.The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP,whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.O-5.0 cal ka BP.There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes.During past two millennia,a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected,but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene.Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-AD 1900),but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period(AD 900-AD 1300)was not distinct in China,especially west China.The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China,especially east China.The modern warm period has lasted 20、years from 1987 to 2006.Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium. 相似文献
13.
14.
Kira Rehfeld Norbert Marwan Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach Jürgen Kurths 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(1):3-19
Internal variability of the Asian monsoon system and the relationship amongst its sub-systems, the Indian and East Asian Summer Monsoon, are not sufficiently understood to predict its responses to a future warming climate. Past environmental variability is recorded in Palaeoclimate proxy data. In the Asian monsoon domain many records are available, e.g. from stalagmites, tree-rings or sediment cores. They have to be interpreted in the context of each other, but visual comparison is insufficient. Heterogeneous growth rates lead to uneven temporal sampling. Therefore, computing correlation values is difficult because standard methods require co-eval observation times, and sampling-dependent bias effects may occur. Climate networks are tools to extract system dynamics from observed time series, and to investigate Earth system dynamics in a spatio-temporal context. We establish paleoclimate networks to compare paleoclimate records within a spatially extended domain. Our approach is based on adapted linear and nonlinear association measures that are more efficient than interpolation-based measures in the presence of inter-sampling time variability. Based on this new method we investigate Asian Summer Monsoon dynamics for the late Holocene, focusing on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the recent period of warming in East Asia. We find a strong Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) influence on the East Asian Summer Monsoon during the MWP. During the cold LIA, the ISM circulation was weaker and did not extend as far east. The most recent period of warming yields network results that could indicate a currently ongoing transition phase towards a stronger ISM penetration into China. We find that we could not have come to these conclusions using visual comparison of the data and conclude that paleoclimate networks have great potential to study the variability of climate subsystems in space and time. 相似文献
15.
J.M. Grove 《Climatic change》2001,48(1):53-82
The "Little Ice Age" was the most recent period during which glaciers extended globally, their fronts oscillating about advanced positions. It is frequently taken as having started in the sixteenth or seventeenth century and ending somewhere between 1850 and 1890, but Porter (1981) pointed out that the "Little Ice Age" may 'have begun at least three centuries earlier in the North Atlantic region than is generally inferred'. The glacial fluctuations of the last millennium have been traced in the greatest detail in the Swiss Alps, where the "Little Ice Age" is now seen as starting with advances in the thirteenth century, and reaching an initial culmination in the fourteenth century. In the discussion here, evidence from Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen and Scandinavia is compared with that from Switzerland. Such comparisons have been facilitated by improved methods of calibrating radiocarbon dates to calendar dates and by increasing availability of evidence revealed during the current retreat phase. It is concluded that the "Little Ice Age" was initiated before the early fourteenth century in regions surrounding the North Atlantic. 相似文献
16.
Tree rings and climate for the last 680 years in Wulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
A 680-year ring-width chronology of Sabina przewalskii Kom. was developed for Wulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. Response function and correlation analyses
showed that spring precipitation (May–June) is the critical limiting factor for tree-ring growth, and temperature in prior
November may also play a role in affecting tree-ring growth. Excessive spring precipitation occurred during AD 1380s–1390s,
1410s–1420s, 1520s–1560s and 1938 to present. Dry springs occurred during AD 1430s–1510s, 1640s–1730s and 1780s–1890s most
of which generally coincided with cold intervals of the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the plateau, suggesting that the LIA climate
on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau might be characterized by three episodes of dry spring and cold autumn. The relatively
driest spring and probably coldest autumn occurred in AD 1710s–1720s, 1787–1797, 1815–1824, 1869–1879 and 1891–1895. The extreme
drought in AD 1787–1797 might result from little monsoon precipitation due to the failure of Asian monsoon in this period.
The tree-ring data produced in this study contribute to the spatial expansion of proxy climate records for the Qinghai-Tibetan
Plateau. 相似文献
17.
基于中国东部地区（30°—40°N,105°E以东）19个代表站1470—2019年旱涝等级序列、古气候代用资料定量重建的北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡指数以及Nino3.4指数,通过经验正交函数分解、小波分析和集合经验模态分解方法分析了中国东部旱涝年代际变化特征及其与太平洋海温的关系。结果表明,（1）1470年以来中国东部旱涝变化的主模态为全区一致型（方差贡献率为25.2%）,变率中心主要位于黄河中下游,其时间系数的小波分析和集合经验模态分解揭示出全区旱涝存在10—30 a的准周期;该模态长期趋势揭示17—18世纪中国东部整体偏涝,而19世纪以后出现干旱化趋势。（2）寒冷背景下中国东部旱涝一致变化更明显,在17世纪前、中期和19世纪中、后期的小冰期寒冷期全区一致型模态的方差贡献率为35%—40%,且这两个时段10—30 a的年代际变化信号尤为显著;而旱涝的变率中心则表现出冷期偏北,暖期偏南或偏西的特征。（3）中国东部旱涝的年代际变化与北太平洋和赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常有关,表现为偏涝（旱）气候对应于北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡的冷（暖）相位,以及年代际尺度上的冬季Nino3.4区海表温度的异常偏低（高）;在小冰期的寒冷期,旱涝的年代际变化可能与Nino3.4区海表温度异常关系更密切。 相似文献
18.
利用2008—2014年全国高垂直分辨率的L波段探空资料,统计分析了东亚夏季风爆发前后我国不同区域对流层顶高度变化特征。研究表明:夏季风爆发后,对流层顶高值区向北推进,最大值位于青藏高原南部及其东南部地区;对流层顶高度的向南梯度和向东梯度大值区均由爆发前的30°~40°N北移至40°~50°N;受地面加热和垂直运动的影响,中国东北部和中东部在夏季风爆发后对流层升温,平流层-对流层过渡层降温,大气温度梯度增加,对流层顶上升,其中中国东北部在夏季风爆发前,大气温度廓线为双峰结构,易出现双对流层顶,第一对流层顶较低;中国南部整层大气温度廓线在夏季风爆发后略有增加,对流层顶有所下降。 相似文献
19.
Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Anomalies for 30-yr Warm Periods in China During the Past 2000 Years 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies during five 30-yr warm periods of 691-720, 1231-1260, 1741-1770, 1921-1950, and 1981-2000 were investigated using a dryness/wetness grading dataset covering 48 stations from Chinese historical documents and 22 precipitation proxy series from natural archives. It was found that the North China Plain (approximately 35 -40 N, east of 105 E) was dry in four warm periods within the centennial warm epochs of 600-750, the Medieval Warm Period (about 900-1300) and after 1900. A wet condition prevailed over most of China during 1741-1770, a 30-yr warm peak that occurred during the Little Ice Age (about 1650-1850). The spatial pattern of the precipitation anomaly in 1981-2000 over East China (25 -40 N, east of 105 E) is roughly consistent with that in 1231-1260, but a difference in the precipitation anomaly appeared over the Tibetan Plateau. The spatial patterns of the precipitation anomalies over China varied between all five 30-yr warm periods, which implies that the matching pattern between temperature and precipitation change is multiform, and the precipitation anomaly could be positive or negative when a decadal warm climate occurs in different climate epochs. This result may provide a primary reference for the mechanism detection and climate simulation of the precipitation anomaly of the future warm climate. 相似文献
20.
A 1053-year reconstruction of spring rainfall (March-June) was developed for the southeastern United States, based on three tree-ring reconstructions of statewide rainfall from North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. This regional reconstruction is highly correlated with the instrumental record of spring rainfall (r = +0.80; 1887–1982), and accurately reproduces the decade-scale departures in spring rainfall amount and variance witnessed over the Southeast during the past century. No large-magnitude centuries-long trends in spring rainfall amounts were reconstructed over the past 1053 years, but large changes in the interannual variability of spring rainfall were reconstructed during portions of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and the 20th century. Dry conditions persisted at the end of the 12th century, but appear to have been exceeded by a reconstructed drought in the mid-18th century. High interannual variability, including five extremely wet years were reconstructed for a 20-yr period during the late 16th and early 17th centuries, and may reflect amplified atmospheric circulation over eastern North America during what appears to have been one of the most widespread cold episodes of the Little Ice Age. 相似文献