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1.
华东冬季异常冷暖与大气环流和海温的关系 总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2
利用1951-2007年华东地区14个代表站冬季(12-2月)温度资料和北半球500 hPa高度及北太平洋海温资料,通过合成分析、相关分析等方法,研究了华东地区冬季气温的气候变化及其与北半球500 hPa高度场、北太平洋海温场的关系.结果表明:华东地区冬季气温具有明显的年代际气候变化特征;前期夏季北半球500 hPa高度距平场和前期春季北太平洋海温距平场分布可作为华东冬季异常冷暖年的前兆信号;夏季北太平洋中部地区500 hPa高度场变化及前期10月西太平洋副高强弱变化,对华东地区冬季气温变化具有很好的指示性;春季南赤道海流区和西风漂流区海温异常变化,对华东地区冬季气温变化也具有很好的指示意义. 相似文献
2.
夏季中国降水型的年代际变化与大气内部动力过程及外强迫因子关系 总被引：8，自引：15，他引：8
根据中国160站月平均降水、NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料以及英国气象局哈德莱中心1900～1999年全球1°×1°格点月平均海表温度距平资料，利用物理量诊断、EOF分析等方法，探讨东亚季风区大气环流内部动力过程与大气外强迫因子（海温）年代际变化及对中国夏季降水型的影响。分析发现，中国东部地区、西北地区夏季降水型有各自不同的年代际变化趋势；中国东部夏季降水型及东亚夏季风环流年代际变化趋势与大气外强迫因子北太平洋中纬度海温年代际变化（PDO）关系密切；中国西北地区夏季降水年代际变化与大气内部动力过程中纬度西风带扰动动能年代际减弱有关。 相似文献
3.
利用1961—2010年江苏省41个台站气温资料,500 hPa高度场和海温场等资料对江苏省夏季气温变化进行研究,并分析同期及前期环流场特征。结果表明:(1)江苏省夏季气温变化幅度南北差异较大,南强北弱。(2)夏季平均气温的变化幅度总是小于其他3个季节。(3)各区夏季异常低温日数在1970s以前呈现增多趋势,1970s以后呈现减少趋势;而异常高温日数在1970s以前呈现减少趋势,1970s以后呈现增多趋势。(4)冷夏年500 hPa高度上,西太平洋副热带高压强度较弱,位置偏东,而东亚大槽较深,位置偏西,环流经向性较大;暖夏年反之。(5)冷夏及冷夏前期,海温场分布具有La Nina事件特征,而在暖夏及暖夏前期,海温场分布具有El Nino事件特征。 相似文献
4.
利用1961~2006年春季(3~5月)海东和西宁气象观测资料和500hPa高度场、环流特征指数和海温距平指数等资料,采用气候诊断方法对海东和西宁春季气温及降水的年代际变化特征以及影响因子进行了分析,并组建了气温和降水的预测方程。结果表明:海东和西宁春季的平均气温呈明显的升高趋势,降水呈微弱的增多趋势,气温每10a增加0.205℃;气温和降水分别存在准11a和22a的变化周期。青藏高原与中国东部沿海地区500hPa高度距平场形成“西低东高(西高东低)“的距平分布型时,海东和西宁春季容易出现多(少)雨年。印度洋副高、极涡、西太平洋副高、西藏高原、印缅槽、北美副高、东亚槽等环流指数以及太平洋地区海温指数的变化对该地区气温、降水的变化具有很好的指示作用。 相似文献
5.
太平洋年代际涛动与云南夏季气温的年代际变化 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
云南夏季气温具有年代际变化特征,近年来一系列的云南夏季气温异常偏高事件是年代际变化的体现.其中云南夏季气温在准50年年代际变率上与春季太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)指数具有较好的正相关关系,夏季西太平洋副热带高压西伸脊点位置与前两者在年代际上都具有较好的负相关关系.分析认为,可能是由于当春季PDO进入暖(冷)位相阶段时,中东太平洋海温距平持续偏高(低),夏季西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西(东),导致云南夏季不(容)易出现云雨天气,从而进入了气温偏高(低)的年代际时期的关系.春季PDO的变化是夏季云南气温年际变化的重要背景. 相似文献
6.
副热带东南太平洋海温对东北夏季降水的影响及可能机制 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
诊断分析表明,前期副热带东南太平洋海温尤其是前春海温与东北夏季降水存在持续稳定的负相关关系。无论是在年际时间尺度还是年代际尺度上,冬、春、夏季海温演变趋势与降水均呈反位相。尺度分离结果显示,关键区海温与降水的显著负相关主要依赖于其年代际分量,但年际分量也起到较重要贡献。相关分析和合成分析结果都发现,当副热带东南太平洋海温偏低时,其上空可激发出反气旋式距平风场,而在关键区海域西北部激发出气旋式距平环流。同时在所罗门群岛和菲律宾南部分别出现反气旋式和气旋式距平环流。西太平洋副热带高压(副高)位置较常年偏西,副高区为反气旋式距平环流。在东北地区西侧则为气旋式距平环流。在这样的环流背景下,副高西侧的南风加强了源自南海和西太平洋的暖湿气流和北方冷空气在东北地区的交汇,从而使东北夏季多雨。反之,当东南太平洋海温偏高时,其激发的气旋及反气旋距平中心和偏低年刚好相反,副高位置偏东,其西侧的南方水汽输送偏弱,同时东北冷涡也偏弱,冷暖空气汇合形成的低空辐合弱,东北降水因此偏少。这表明,副热带东南太平洋海温异常时确实能激发出一个从关键海区到东北地区的跨越南北半球的气旋-反气旋交替波列,引发北半球中高纬度大气环流异常,从而影响东北夏季降水。 相似文献
7.
8.
1990年代末东亚北部地区夏季水汽输送年代际变化特征及其影响机制 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用1983～2011年降水量、环流和海温的再分析资料,探讨了东亚北部地区夏季水汽输送的年代际变化特征,并分析了前冬北大西洋海温对东亚北部地区夏季水汽输送与大气环流的可能影响。研究结果表明,20世纪90年代末期东亚北部地区夏季整层水汽与降水年代际的变化特征相一致,整层水汽通量的年代际变化主要是由于纬向水汽输送异常作用的结果。东亚北部地区（35°～55°N,90°～145°E）西边界的水汽输送通量由多变少,东边界的水汽输送通量由少变多特征则直接导致了该地区降水由偏多转为偏少的年代际变化。就外强迫海温角度来说,前冬北大西洋海温跟东亚北部地区夏季500 hPa高度场、850 hPa风场和850 hPa比湿均显著相关。同时,在20世纪90年代中后期前冬北大西洋海温也表现出由偏低向偏高转变的年代际变化特征,且由于海温自身的记忆性前冬的海温异常一直延续到夏季。并在夏季激发出横跨北大西洋和欧亚大陆中高纬度地区的大西洋-欧亚（AEA）遥相关结构,并进一步影响东亚北部地区夏季水汽输送。 相似文献
9.
在工业革命以来全球长期增暖趋势背景下,全球平均表面气温还同时表现出年代际变化特征,二者叠加在一起使得全球平均气温在某些年份增暖相对停滞(如1999～2008年)或者增暖相对较快(如1980～1998年).利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的耦合气候模式FGOALS-s2历史气候和典型路径浓度(RCPs)模拟试验结果研究了可能造成全球增暖的年代际停滞及加速现象的原因,特别是海洋环流对全球变暖趋势的调制作用.该模式模拟的全球平均气温与观测类似,即在长期增暖趋势之上,还叠加了显著的年代际变化.对全球平均能量收支分析表明,模拟的气温年代际变化与大气顶净辐射通量无关,意味着年代际表面气温变化可能与能量在气候系统内部的重新分配有关.通过对全球增暖加速和停滞时期大气和海洋环流变化的合成分析及回归分析,发现全球表面气温与大部分海区海表温度(SST)均表现出几乎一致的变化特征.在增暖停滞时期,SST降低,更多热量进入海洋次表层和深层,使其温度增加;而在增暖加速时期,更多热量停留在表层,使得大部分海区SST显著增加,次表层海水和深海相对冷却.进一步分析表明,热带太平洋表层和次表层海温年代际变化主要是由于副热带—热带经圈环流(STC)的年代际变化所致,然后热带太平洋海温异常可以通过风应力和热通量强迫作用引起印度洋、大西洋海温的年代际变化.在此过程中,海洋环流变化起到了重要作用,例如印度尼西亚贯穿流(ITF)年代际异常对南印度洋次表层海温变化起到关键作用,而大西洋经圈翻转环流(AMOC)则能直接影响到北大西洋深层海温变化. 相似文献
10.
高原夏季风指数的定义及其特征分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
基于1958~2002年ECMWF再分析资料,我国160个台站降水和气温资料,从夏季高原季风环流系统特点出发,定义了能较好表征高原夏季风环流变化的特征指数,分析了高原夏季风年际、年代际变化特征,并揭示了高原夏季风强弱异常时的环流特征及其与中国夏季降水和气温的关系,主要结论为:(1)用6~8月600hPa (27.5~30°N,80~100°E)范围内平均的西风分量距平与(35~37.5°N,80~100°E)范围内平均的东风分量距平差定义了高原夏季风指数(PM I)。该指数计算简单,意义清楚,代表性好。(2)1958~2002年高原夏季风整体呈增强趋势,在20世纪60年代中期之前是高原夏季风的强盛期,之后是高原夏季风弱期,在80年代以后又转为季风强期。(3)高原夏季风与中国夏季降水和气温相关很好。将该指数与之前汤懋苍定义的指数进行性能综合比较后,发现该指数对川渝地区的夏季降水及气温有更好的指示意义。 相似文献
11.
E. Xoplaki J. González-Rouco D. Gyalistras J. Luterbacher R. Rickli H. Wanner 《Climate Dynamics》2003,20(5):537-554
The interannual and decadal variability of summer (June to September) air temperature in the northeastern Mediterranean is analysed for the period 1950 to 1999. Extremely hot and cool summers are illustrated by means of composite analysis. The combined influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and thermic predictors on local temperature is assessed by means of an objective approach based on empirical orthogonal functions and canonical correlation analysis. Monthly values of sea level pressure, geopotential heights, atmospheric thickness and Mediterranean sea surface temperatures are used as predictor fields and air temperature from 24 observational sites spread over Greece and western Turkey constitute the predictand variable. Results indicate that more than 50% of the total summer temperature variability can be explained linearly by the combination of eight large-scale predictor fields on two canonical correlation modes. The first canonical mode is related to a more meridional circulation at the upper tropospheric levels, which favours local land-sea contrasts in the associated local temperature pattern. Variations of this mode are found to be responsible for the occurrence of extreme events and decadal trends in regional temperature, the latter being characterized by a cooling in the early 1960s and a warming in the early 1990s. The second canonical mode pictures variations in the intensity of the zonal circulation over the Atlantic area that drive temperature anomalies affecting mainly the Aegean Sea and the west of Greece. Our results suggest the potential of statistical downscaling for Greek summer temperature with reliable climate forecasts for planetary-scale anomalies. 相似文献
12.
ENSO 循环各阶段东亚夏季风特征的诊断研究 总被引：2，自引：6，他引：2
利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料和NCAR海温资料及中国测站地温资料，对ENSO循环不同阶段东亚夏季风强弱变化进行了分析．并从此期间的海陆热力差异和季风低压变化来探讨海温异常对东亚夏季风的影响，结果表明：东亚夏季风指数有明显的年际变化和年代际变化，且与赤道东太平洋SST有较好的负相关关系，其中又以与三个月前的海温变化关系最好．在Ninol 2区为冷、暖水之后的三个月中，冷水期对应的东亚夏季风指数大于暖水期对应的东亚夏季风指数，东亚夏季风比暖水期强。赤道东太平洋SST变化期间亚洲大陆的地面温度和地面气压也有明显变化，这是引起ENSO不同阶段东亚夏季风变化的主要原因。 相似文献
13.
Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important research focus of the CLIVAR Program and has been paid more attention. Over recent years, a lot of studies in relation to interdecadal climate variations have been also completed by Chinese scientists. This paper presents an overview of some advances in the study of decadal/interdecadal variations of the ocean temperature and its climate impacts, which includes interdecadal climate variability in China, the interdecadal modes of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific, and in particular, the impacts of interdecadal SST variations on the Asian monsoon rainfall. As summarized in this paper, some results have been achieved by using climate diagnostic studies of historical climatic datasets. Two fundamental interdecadal SST variability modes (7– 10-years mode and 25–35-years mode) have been identified over the North Pacific associated with different anomalous patterns of atmospheric circulation. The southern Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) shows a major feature of interdecadal variation, with a positive (negative) phase favoring a weakened (enhanced) Asian summer monsoon in the following summer. It is also found that the China monsoon rainfall exhibits interdecadal variations with more wet (dry) monsoon years in the Yangtze River (South China and North China) before 1976, but vice versa after 1976. The weakened relationship between the Indian summer rainfall and ENSO is a feature of interdecadal variations, suggesting an important role of the interdecadal variation of the SIOD in the climate over the south Asia and southeast Asia. In addition, evidence indicates that the climate shift in the 1960s may be related to the anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). Overall, the present research has improved our understanding of the decadal/interdecadal variations of SST and their impacts on the Asian monsoon rainfall. However, the research also highlights a number of problems for future research, in particular the mechanisms responsible for the monsoon long-term predictability, which is a great challenge in climate research. 相似文献
14.
The correlation between Sahel rainfall and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the northern summer has been varying for the last fifty years. We propose that the existence of periods of weak or strong relationship could result from an interaction with the global decadal scale sea surface temperature (SST) background. The main modes of SST variability have been extracted through a principal component analysis with Varimax rotation. The correlations between a July-September Sahel rainfall index and these SST modes have been computed on a 20-year running window between 1945 and 1993. The correlations with the interannual ENSO-SST mode are negative, not significant in the 1960s during the transition period from the wet climate phasis to the long-running drought in the Sahel, but then were significant since 1976. During the former period, the correlations between the Sahel rainfall index and the other SST modes (expressing mostly on quasi and multi-decadal scales) are the highest, in particular correlations with the tropical Atlantic “dipole”. Correlations between Sahel and Guinea Coast rainfall are also significantly negative. After 1970, the Sahel-Guinea Coast rainfall correlations are no longer significant, and the ENSO-SST mode becomes the only one significantly correlated with Sahel rainfall, especially due to the impact of warm events. The partial correlations between the ENSO-SST mode and the Sahel rainfall index, when the influence of the other SST modes are eliminated, are significant over all the 20-year running periods between 1945 and 1993, suggesting that this summer teleconnection could be modulated by the decadal scale SST background. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses reproduce accurately the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation after 1968. In particular a regional West African Monsoon Index (WAMI), combining wind speed anomalies at 925 and 200?hPa, is highly correlated with the July-September Sahel rainfall index. A warm ENSO event is associated both with an eastward mean sea level pressure gradient between the eastern tropical Pacific and the tropical Atlantic and with a northward pressure gradient along the western coast of West Africa. This pattern leads to enhanced trade winds over the tropical Atlantic and to weaker moisture advection over West Africa, consistent with a weaker monsoon system strength and a weaker Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses do not reproduce accurately the decadal variability of the atmospheric circulation over West Africa because of artifical biases. Therefore the impact of the decadal scale pattern of the atmospheric circulation has been investigated with atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) sensitivity experiments, by forcing the ARPEGE-Climat model with different combinations of an El Niño-like SST pattern with the pattern of the main mode of decadal scale SST variability where the hightest weights are located in the Pacific and Indian basins. AGCM outputs show that the decadal scale SST variations weakly affect Sahel rainfall variability but that they do induce an indirect effect on Sahel rainfall by enhancing the impact of the warm ENSO phases after 1980, through an increase in the fill-in of the monsoon trough and a moisture advection deficit over West Africa. 相似文献
15.
The South Atlantic dipole and variations in the characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model simulations 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This study investigates relationships between Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the variability of the characteristics of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), such as the onset dates and total precipitation over central eastern Brazil. The observed onset and total summer monsoon precipitation are estimated for the period 1979?C2007. SST patterns are obtained from the Empirical Orthogonal Function. It is shown that variations in SST on interannual timescales over the South Atlantic Ocean play an important role in the total summer monsoon precipitation. Negative (positive) SST anomalies over the topical South Atlantic along with positive (negative) SST anomalies over the extratropical South Atlantic are associated with early (late) onsets and wet (dry) summers over southeastern Brazil and late (early) onset and dry (wet) summers over northeastern Brazil. Simulations from Phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) are assessed for the 20th century climate scenario (1971?C2000). Most CMIP3 coupled models reproduce the main modes of variability of the South Atlantic Ocean. GFDL2.0 and MIROC-M are the models that best represent the SST variability over the South Atlantic. On the other hand, these models do not succeed in representing the relationship between SST and SAMS variability. 相似文献
16.
年际及年代际时间变率是当代气候研究的重要问题之一 ,通过对近百年热带太平洋海温资料做子波分析发现 ,2 0世纪 50年代以来的海温升高及频繁发生的 ENSO事件伴随着海温年代际时间尺度背景场的明显改变 ,同时还研究了其年代际及年际时间尺度时间变率特征。 相似文献
17.
Boreal summer continental monsoon rainfall and hydroclimate anomalies associated with the Asian-Pacific Oscillation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
With the twentieth century analysis data (1901–2002) for atmospheric circulation, precipitation, Palmer drought severity index, and sea surface temperature (SST), we show that the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) during boreal summer is a major mode of the earth climate variation linking to global atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate anomalies, especially the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer land monsoon. Associated with a positive APO phase are the warm troposphere over the Eurasian land and the relatively cool troposphere over the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean. Such an amplified land–ocean thermal contrast between the Eurasian land and its adjacent oceans signifies a stronger than normal NH summer monsoon, with the strengthened southerly or southwesterly monsoon prevailing over tropical Africa, South Asia, and East Asia. A positive APO implies an enhanced summer monsoon rainfall over all major NH land monsoon regions: West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Mexico. Thus, APO is a sensible measure of the NH land monsoon rainfall intensity. Meanwhile, reduced precipitation appears over the arid and semiarid regions of northern Africa, the Middle East, and West Asia, manifesting the monsoon-desert coupling. On the other hand, surrounded by the cool troposphere over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, the extratropical North America has weakened low-level continental low and upper-level ridge, hence a deficient summer rainfall. Corresponding to a high APO index, the African and South Asian monsoon regions are wet and cool, the East Asian monsoon region is wet and hot, and the extratropical North America is dry and hot. Wet and dry climates correspond to wet and dry soil conditions, respectively. The APO is also associated with significant variations of SST in the entire Pacific and the extratropical North Atlantic during boreal summer, which resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in SST. Of note is that the Pacific SST anomalies are not present throughout the year, rather, mainly occur in late spring, peak at late summer, and are nearly absent during boreal winter. The season-dependent APO–SST relationship and the origin of the APO remain elusive. 相似文献
18.
Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer 
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下载免费PDF全文 The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific–Japan or East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer. 相似文献
19.
虽然中国降水以年际变化为主,但可利用奇异谱分析辨析出10—20 a、20—50 a 年代际变化的显著性区域以及>50 a 的长期趋势的显著性区域。本研究通过奇异值分解、多元线性回归等方法探究了1934—2018年不同海洋模态对6—8月（夏季）和12月—翌年2月（冬季）中国陆地降水趋势以及年代际振荡的相对贡献。通过对中国降水及中低纬度地区海温进行奇异值分解发现,不论冬夏,影响中国降水的主要模态是全球变暖,其次是太平洋年代际振荡。利用多元线性回归模型定量评估全球变暖、太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋多年代际振荡对中国不同区域降水的方差贡献及各因子的相对贡献,结果表明:夏季,三者可以解释西北和华北大约30%的年代际降水,其中全球变暖的相对贡献最大、太平洋年代际振荡次之;冬季,三者可以解释东北42%、西北和华北30%左右的年代际降水,东北和西北以全球变暖的相对贡献为主、大西洋多年代际振荡为辅,华北仍以全球变暖的影响为主、太平洋年代际振荡为辅。 相似文献