共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 156 毫秒
1.
基于相空间重构的西太平洋副高指数的动力随机性与复杂性 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,计算了西太平洋副热带高压脊线指数的逐候时间序列,对该时间序列进行了相空间重构,对相空间重构中最佳嵌入维数和延迟时间的选择进行了分析,画出了相应的伪相图,同时还对副高脊线指数吸引子的关联维数进行了计算,得到副高脊线指数关联维数为3.10±0.05.通过动力参数的计算和重构后相空间递归图的分析,讨论了副高活动的动力随机性和复杂性.分析结果对副高系统复杂性和可预报性的认识以及副高动力模型反演有参考意义. 相似文献
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本文采用上海16年(1970—1985年)逐日平均气压资料,用相空间延拓的方法,计算了它的关联维D和Kalmogorov熵的近似值二阶Renyi嫡K2。得到D=7.7～7.9,为分数值,K2约为0.1,是一正数值。证明我国季风区短期天气吸引子是一种浑沌运动。由K2数值直接估计可预报时间T=(1K2)约为十天,与早期动力统计学方法所得的可预报时间尺度相一致。 本文计算中,考察了相空间拓展时延滞τ的效应。计算结果表明:关联维D和K2对τ均是收敛的。对本文所用上海逐日平均气压序列,用延滞τ=5延拓的相空间,各坐标分量是相互独立的,系统动力学特征量是稳定可靠的。 相似文献
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在吸引子上演变的天气和气候变量(局地地面气压和δ_(18)O-记录),从其相空间轨迹能演绎出可预报性。可预报性可由初始彼此接近的相轨迹之散度来定义,并且可由单一变量轨迹上扩展着的点对的累积距离分布估计出来,e倍膨胀率表征了可预报性的时间尺度。作为第一估计,我们得到了天气变量的可预报性时间尺度约为两周而气候变量的则为1.0～1.5万年。 相似文献
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利用东亚地区１１个有代表性测站（１９７９－１９８８年）连续１０年的５００ｈＰａ逐日位势高度时间序列，全面计算了它们的浑沌特征量。结果表明，各测站相应的关联维数都是分数；完整的Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数谱中，不仅都有正值、零和负值，而且Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数之和都小于零。因此，从整体来看，相应于东亚地区天气尺度的吸引子是由一个有限窨支撑起来的。东亚地区的天气吸引子所显示的系统平均Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｌｏｖ熵约为０ 相似文献
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四、在天气和气候中吸引子的研究确定吸引子的Hausdorff-Besicovit-ch维数具有极其重要的意义。因为一个吸引子无论是否为分形,其维数表示在相应的动力学系统演变过程中出现的最少变量个数(亦即吸引子必须嵌入一个至少等于其自身维数的状态空间)。所以,吸引子的Haus-dotff-Besicovitch维数(亦或任何其它广义维数的问题)的测定,也就给出了预测系统演变的模式所必须满足的一些约束条件。如果给出动力学系统的数学表达式,那 相似文献
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Quantifying local predictability of the Lorenz system using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent 
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下载免费PDF全文 《大气和海洋科学快报》2017,(5)
非线性局部Lyapunov指数(NLLE)可以用来度量混沌系统的局地可预报性。本文基于NLLE方法研究了Lorenz吸引子在相空间上的局地可预报性的空间分布特征。结果表明,在吸引子两翼的内、外边缘的局地可预报性期限较高,而吸引子中部地区的局地可预报性期限则较低。然而,局地可预报性期限的分布却没有呈现有组织的均一结构,相邻两点的局地可预报性期限可能差别很大。局地可预报性的来源被认为与吸引子上的局地动力学有关,由所在位置和在当前状态的持续时间决定。 相似文献
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利用一维时间序列确定吸引子维数中存在的若干问题 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
从一些控制方程已知的微分动力系统出发，利用它们不同分量、不同时间间隔的解序列重构相空间和原本相空间两种方式所得分维结果进行了比较，发现了一些有意义的事实，并探讨了用一维时间序列重构相空间确定吸引子维数的理论，揭示出其中存在的本质问题。最后指出，只有完全搞清动力系统的单分量序列采用怎样的延滞时间τ和怎样的采样间隔Ｈ延拓后才能保证重构相空间和原本相空间的度量性质不变时，我们才能获得真实、可靠、有用的结果。 相似文献
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500hPa月平均距平场演变的宏观描述 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
近年来,采用数值方法进行长期预报和气候异常的研究有了很大的进展,但是这些研究多是沿用了中短期预报的概念和方法,由于长期天气系统是一个强迫耗散的非线性系统,而“耗散系统最终将趋向维数比原始相空间低的极限集合——吸引子,许多自由度在演变过程中成为‘无关变量’,最终剩下支撑起吸引子的少数自由度”。如果不考虑系统的极其复杂的暂态行为,我们自然可以把这些‘无关变量’去掉,从而把高维动力系统简化成低维动力系统。这个解释H.Haken称做随动原理。本文的目的旨在应用上述原理探讨长期天气异常演变的宏观描述方法。我们希望这里提出的概念和方法将有助于建立有效的长期数值预报模式。 相似文献
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提出一个对多元判据综合评估的中期天气客观相似预报模式。模式应用同中期天气过程的时间—空间尺度相适应的经过时间滤波的大气环流背景为客观判据，比较全面地评估了预报时刻前后多层次、多要素的大气环流动态变化的相似，通过定义相似指数综合评估在多元判据下样本的相似程度，从相似时域的历史样本中找到较佳相似的中期过程，预测未来l～10天的中期天气过程。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。 相似文献
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Chen Yingyi 《大气科学进展》1993,10(4):497-503
The dimensions of attractors and predictability are estimated from phase space trajectories of observed 500 hPa height over the Northern Hemisphere. As a first estimate the dimensions of attractors are about 11.5 and the doubling time of the initial error is 6 to 7 days for original data. But the former is shorter and the latter is longer for low frequency data set.To verify if the predictability estimated by this method and by general circulation model is identical, the doubling time of the initial error of a model data set by both methods is estimated. It is shown that the predictability obtained from phase space trajectories is overestimated to sufficient small initial error. But it is underestimated to the time being equal to the climatological RMS error. 相似文献
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The localized features on chaotic attractor in phase space and predictability are investigated in thepresent study.It will be suggested that the localized features in phase space have to be considered indetermining the predictability.The notions of the local instability including the finite-time and local-time instabilities which determine the growth rate of error are introduced,and the calculation methodsare discussed in detail.The results from the calculation of the 3-component Lorenz model show thatsuch instability,correspondingly the growth rate of error,varies dramatically as the trajectoriesevolve on the chaotic attractor.The region in which the growth rate of error is small is localizedconsiderably,and is separable from the region in which the growth rate is large.The localpredictability is of important interest.It is also suggested that such localized features may be the maincause for a great deal of case-to-case variability of the predictive skill in the operational forecasts. 相似文献
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J. R. Kulkarni 《大气科学进展》1991,8(3):351-356
For summer monsoon rainfall purpose India is divided into 35 subdivisions. The daily rainfall series of one such subdivision (Konkan) has been analysed using the phase space approach. Fifteen years (1959-1973) of daily rainfall data have been utilised in this study. The analysis shows that the variability is due to the existing of strange attractor of dimension about 3.8. The predictability is estimated by computing the Lyapunov characteristic exponent. The computations show that the predictability is about 8 days. 相似文献
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Extended range(10–30 d) heavy rain forecasting is difficult but performs an important function in disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper,a nonlinear cross prediction error(NCPE) algorithm that combines nonlinear dynamics and statistical methods is proposed. The method is based on phase space reconstruction of chaotic single-variable time series of precipitable water and is tested in 100 global cases of heavy rain. First,nonlinear relative dynamic error for local attractor pairs is calculated at different stages of the heavy rain process,after which the local change characteristics of the attractors are analyzed. Second,the eigen-peak is defined as a prediction indicator based on an error threshold of about 1.5,and is then used to analyze the forecasting validity period. The results reveal that the prediction indicator features regarded as eigenpeaks for heavy rain extreme weather are all reflected consistently,without failure,based on the NCPE model; the prediction validity periods for 1–2 d,3–9 d and 10–30 d are 4,22 and 74 cases,respectively,without false alarm or omission. The NCPE model developed allows accurate forecasting of heavy rain over an extended range of 10–30 d and has the potential to be used to explore the mechanisms involved in the development of heavy rain according to a segmentation scale. This novel method provides new insights into extended range forecasting and atmospheric predictability,and also allows the creation of multi-variable chaotic extreme weather prediction models based on high spatiotemporal resolution data. 相似文献
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Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A reformulation of the simple model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation introduced by Maas [Tellus 46A (1994) 671] is considered. Under a realistic range of forcing parameters, this model displays multiple attractors, corresponding to thermally direct and indirect circulations. The fixed point associated with the thermally direct circulation is unstable for a broad range of parameters, leading to limit cycles and chaotic behaviour. It is demonstrated that if weather variability is parameterised as stochastic perturbations to the mechanical and buoyancy fluxes, then the leading Lyapunov exponent of the circulation can become positive for sufficiently strong fluctuations in parameter ranges where it is deterministically zero. If the fluctuations are sufficiently small that the stochastic trajectories are not too far from the deterministic attractor, it is demonstrated that the sign of the leading Lyapunov exponent can have a substantial effect on the predictability of the system. 相似文献
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In this paper, the attractors of turbulent flows in phase space are reconstructed by the time delay technique using observed data of atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence, which include high resolution temperature, humidity andthree-dimensional wind speed measurements in Gansu province and Beijing, China. The correlation dimensions and largest Lyapunov exponents have been computed. The results indicate that all the largest Lyapunov exponents in different conditions of time, site and atmospheric stability are greater than zero. This means that the atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence system is really chaotic and has appropriate low-dimensional strange attractors whose dimension numbers range from 3 to 7 and vary with different variables (dynamical variables or non-dynamical variables) and atmospheric stability. Turbulent kinetic energy is first applied to reconstruct the attractor of turbulence, and is found to be feasible. 相似文献
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混沌系统的局域特征与可预报性 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
讨论了混沌系统的时间和空间的局域特征。首先分析了研究时间和空间局域特征的必要性。接着引进了有限时间不稳定和局域时间不稳定的概念，并对有关的计算问题进行了研究。对Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统的具体计算表明，随着轨线在混沌吸引子上的演变，局域不稳定特征有很大的变化，相应误差增长也有很大的变化。相应于误差迅速增长的轨线部分局限于很有限的相空间范围内，而且同误差增长缓慢的轨线部分占据的相空间区域截然可分。每一个例的可预报性依赖于轨线在相空间中所处的区域。混沌系统的这种局域特征可以是导致个例业务预报技巧之间有很大差别的主要原因。 相似文献
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作者介绍了分形和分维的概念、性质和意义，重点讨论了从一维时间序列中提取维数信息的方法，并给出了一些在天气和气候中的应用。 相似文献