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1.
未来甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧的影响 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用一个耦合的大气化学-气候模式(WACCM3)研究了地表甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧变化的影响.结果表明,如果地表甲烷的排放量在2000年的基础上增加50%(达到政府间气候变化专门委员会A1B排放情景中2050年的值),平流层水汽体积分数将平均增加约0.8×10-6.南半球平流层甲烷转化为水汽的效率比北半球高.在北半球平流层中,1mol甲烷分子可以转化为约1.63mol的水汽分子,而在南半球1mol甲烷分子大概可以转化为约1.82mol的水汽分子.甲烷排放增加50%将使全球中低纬度地区以及北半球高纬度地区的臭氧柱总量增加1%-3%,使南半球高纬度地区臭氧柱总量增加近8%,而秋季(南半球春季)南极地区臭氧柱总量增加幅度可高达20%,南极臭氧的这种显着增加主要是由于甲烷增加造成的化学反馈所致.在北半球中高纬度地区,甲烷增加引起的臭氧变化主要与甲烷氧化导致的水汽增加有关.研究还表明,未来甲烷排放增加对臭氧的恢复作用其实与溴化物排放的减少一样重要. 相似文献
2.
21世纪平流层温度变化和臭氧恢复 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
温室气体增加和可能的臭氧恢复将是影响21世纪平流层温度变化的两个主要因素。温室气体增加的辐射效应将导致平流层变冷,而臭氧恢复将导致平流层变暖。为探讨平流层温度在这两种相反因素作用下的变化趋势,研究中使用了观测的臭氧和温度资料以及4个有代表性的IPCC-AR4海气耦合的全球环流模式的模拟结果(GISS-ER、GFDL-CM20、NCAR-CC-SM3和UKMO-HadCM3)。观测分析结果表明,在近10年来臭氧柱含量和平流层低层温度均有升高的趋势,平流层中层温度仍然延续20世纪后20年的变冷趋势。IPCC-AR4的模拟结果表明,单纯温室气体增加将造成平流层变冷。可是,在同时考虑温室气体增加和臭氧层恢复的情况下,模拟结果表明平流层中上层仍将维持变冷的趋势,而下层则存在变暖的趋势,但几个模式给出的变暖趋势有差别。UKMO-HadCM3给出的模拟结果是在3种温室气体排放情况下平流层低层均呈现较强的变暖趋势,变暖的层次可达40hPa;GFDL-CM20和NCAR-CCSM3给出的变暖趋势较弱一些,并且变暖主要位于60hPa以下的层次。 相似文献
3.
采用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的公共大气模式CAM5.1研究了人为气溶胶排放增加对中国东部冬季风的影响,同时通过对比中国东部地区不同人为气溶胶排放源的敏感性试验结果,探讨了人为硫酸盐、黑碳及总人为气溶胶(硫酸盐+黑碳)增加对东亚冬季风的影响。结果表明:冬季硫酸盐气溶胶排放增加的直接和第一间接效应减少了到达地表的短波辐射通量,引起了陆地地表和对流层低层降温,海平面气压升高,增加了海陆间气压梯度,使得东亚冬季风增强。其第二间接效应导致中国南部大尺度降水率减少;黑碳气溶胶排放增加导致到达地表的短波辐射通量减少和大气中短波辐射通量增加,其半直接效应部分抵消了直接效应,故地表温度变化微小且不显著。加热的对流层低层导致中国南部对流活动和对流降水率增加;总人为气溶胶排放增加导致的大气温度变化表现为弱的降温作用,引起中国北部对流和大尺度降水率减少,而南部对流降水率增加。总人为气溶胶和黑碳气溶胶排放增加是导致中国北(南)部的东亚冬季风增强(减弱)的重要因素。 相似文献
4.
利用中高层大气模式（MUAM）研究20世纪末12月平流层气候态的十年际变化,基于一组敏感性试验评估下边界条件、二氧化碳及臭氧浓度变化对平流层温度变化的分别影响,着重探讨了南北极局部增暖的机制差异。结果表明,相较于20世纪80年代,90年代12月北极中上平流层西风减速,中低层增温,这主要与下边界条件变化导致行星1波的上传显著增强（2波削弱）有关。同一时期,南极平流层低层西风加速温度降低,中上层东风减速温度升高,这主要与南极低平流层显著的臭氧损耗有关;下边界条件变化和中层局地的臭氧增加也有一定的贡献,但低层臭氧损耗所诱导的极涡加速使得波传播环境或条件有利于1～2波上传增强（1波主导）至更高高度可能是最终导致中上层增暖的主要原因。 相似文献
5.
青藏高原平流层臭氧和气溶胶的变化趋势研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
通过分析SAGEⅡ资料,发现青藏高原平流层臭氧存在递减趋势,15—50 km臭氧的变化对臭氧总量变化贡献最大,其中25—50 km和15—25 km两层的贡献大致相当。通过青藏高原和中国东部地区平流层臭氧变化的对比,清楚地看出:两地臭氧总量变化的差异主要是由于在15—25 km臭氧变化不同所致。5—7月臭氧变化趋势的情况与年平均的变化类似,两地臭氧变化的差异主要在平流层低层,即15—25 km。青藏高原平流层气溶胶面密度的时间变化序列显示:大的火山喷发对青藏高原平流层气溶胶具有重要影响,其影响可持续6年左右。从1997年至今,青藏高原18—25 km气溶胶面密度增加,最大的增长出现在23 km,每年大约增长4%—5%。而在16—17 km气溶胶的面密度出现减少趋势。与此同时,在37 km以下,青藏高原的温度出现递减的趋势,而且其递减速度比中国东部地区快;在37—50 km,温度出现增加的趋势,青藏高原的增温也比中国东部地区快。青藏高原平流层低层气溶胶的增加和温度的降低都将增强该区域非均相反应的作用。 相似文献
6.
利用美国SAGE II (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II)卫星最新版（6.0版）1.020 μm通道逐日气溶胶消光系数资料，得出了对流层中上层及平流层（10 km以上高度）气溶胶光学厚度的平均分布和变化特征。结果表明:气溶胶光学厚度在低纬度大，在印度洋的岛屿上空有三个高值中心，气溶胶光学厚度高值中心与对流层中上层的上升气流的高值中心相对应。与17年(1984～2000年)年平均相比，近6年（1995～2000年）孟加拉湾至青藏高原东南部上空气溶胶光学厚度明显增加；中国东部地区上空气溶胶光学厚度增加，中西部地区则减小。气溶胶光学厚度存在三个经向的增加带和两个经向的减小带。中纬度与赤道之间的布鲁尔-多普森环流（Brewer-Dobson Circulation）带来的低层大气与对流层中上层及平流层之间的气溶胶输送是导致气溶胶这种经向一致变化的主要因素。气溶胶的这种输送产生的近地面大气污染物向中上层大气输送有可能产生重要的气候变化。 相似文献
7.
本文在充分考虑太阳紫外辐射在大气中传输的物理过程的基础上,引入局地地面气压、臭氧和地表反照率的时空变化,利用Delta-Eddington近似法计算了中国地区冬季(1月)和夏季(7月)晴天时地面太阳紫外辐射(0.290—0.400μm)和紫外B辐射(0.290—0.325μm)的分布,并进一步计算出臭氧总量减少5％、15％时紫外B的变化.结果指出,由于臭氧总量的减少,中国北部地区紫外B的增加比南部地区显著.平均而言,臭氧总量减少1％时,冬季紫外B将增加1％左右,夏季紫外B将增加0.6％—0.7％. 相似文献
8.
气溶胶气候效应的一维模式分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
本文首先采用一线辐射对流模式，分析了乡村型、城市型气溶胶和平流层气溶胶含量增加对全球地表气温的直接影响以及硫酸盐粒子含量增加对全球地表气温的间接影响。然后利用考虑了海洋热惯性作用的ＥＢＭ／ＢＤ模式，模拟了近百年来由于大气中硫酸盐粒子含量变化、火山爆发和大气温室气体浓度增加共同引起的全球地表平均气温变化。结果表明：气溶胶的气候效应在地气系统辐射收支和全球气温变化研究中起着非常重要的作用。 相似文献
9.
根据63站无线电探空网资料,应用线性回归方法对1960—85、1965—85、1970—85、1975—85年时段内两半球极地、温带、亚热带、赤道地区以及热带的地表面、对流层(1.5—9km)、对流层顶层(9—16km)和平流层低层(16—20km)的年、季温度变化进行了估计。在过去的25年中,几乎所有气候区的地表和对流层都增暖,而对流层顶层和平流层低层冷却,即递减率增大。低层增暖和高层冷却的现象南半球比北半球更明显。从半球范围看,增暖率和冷却率增加不明显。但就各个气候区而言是显著的。例如南极平流层低层冷却的增加,尤其是春季。也许,这与这个地区春季总的臭氧含量低(或减小)有关。在北半球,地表增暖冬季最明显;在南半球,增温最大的是在秋季和冬季。就全球而言,地表和对流层以9、10、11月增温最少。在两半球的对流层顶层9、10、11和12、1、2月冷却最大。 El chichon火山爆发对平流层低层降温的影响也进行了估计,并得到了平流层低层冷却有随高度增加的迹象。这种实测到的温度变化图象被认为是来自CO_2和一些痕量气体的增加。 相似文献
10.
平流层臭氧季节变化的动力和光化学作用之比较 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
1992年到2005年的HALOE资料显示, 在臭氧光化损耗中, ClOx 和NOx 的贡献大小和作用位置有所差异。SOCRATES3模式模拟表明, 两半球夏季高纬极区的臭氧减少, 主要是NOx的化学贡献; 北极春季和南极冬季副极地臭氧的变化, 主要是动力输送引起。南、北极春季臭氧减少的化学机制也有所不同, 南极春季的臭氧耗损包括极区内ClOx 的异相化学作用和副极区NOx的化学作用; 北极春季的臭氧耗损主要以NOx 和ClOx 的气相化学作用为主, 其中NOx 的作用更大。动力和光化学在臭氧变化中的贡献表明, 整个中低平流层及低纬平流层高层的动力输送贡献可达到45%, 而高纬平流层中上层, 化学作用贡献在65%以上。 相似文献
11.
VOLKER GREWE MARTIN DAMERIS RALF HEIN ROBERT SAUSEN BENEDIKT STEIL 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2001,53(2):103-121
The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition is investigated with respect to NO y and O3 by means of the off‐line coupled dynamic‐chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO x and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO x and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamical parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, diabatic circulation, stratosphere‐troposphere‐exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate‐chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major rôle for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change (B and C) has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO y and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. 相似文献
12.
Abstract We describe a one‐dimensional (1‐D) numerical model developed to simulate the chemistry of minor constituents in the stratosphere. The model incorporates most of the chemical species presently found in the upper atmosphere and has been used to investigate the effect of increasing chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions on ozone (O3). Our calculations confirm previous results that O3 depletions in the 20–25 km region, the region of the O3 maximum, are very sensitive to the relative abundances of Clx and NOy in the lower stratosphere for high Clx amounts. The individual abundances of lower stratospheric Clx and NOy amounts are very sensitive to upper tropospheric mixing ratios, which, in turn, are determined largely by surface input fluxes and heterogeneous loss processes. Thus the behaviour of column O3 depletions at high Clx levels is greatly affected, albeit indirectly, by tropospheric processes. For high Clx levels the Ox flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere is dramatically reduced, leading to a large reduction in tropospheric O3. Some of the variation between different published 1‐D model results is most likely due to this critical dependence of O3 depletion on NOy‐Clx ratios. Model simulations of time‐dependent CFC effects on ozone indicate that if CFCs were to remain at constant 1980 emission rates while N2O increased at 0.25% a?1 and CH4 increased at 1% a?1, we could expect a 2.2% decrease in total column O3 (relative to the 1980 atmosphere) by the year 2000. However, if CFC emission rates were to increase by 3% a?1 (current estimates are 5–6% a?1), we would predict a depletion of 2.7% by the year 2000. The calculations for times beyond the year 2000 suggest that the effects on total O3 will begin to accelerate. If methyl chloroform emissions are added at 7% a?1 (current estimates are 7–9% a?1) to the above CFC‐N2O‐CH4 scenario we calculate total O3 depletions by the year 2000 that are 41% larger than those calculated without. This suggests that if the emissions of methyl chloroform continue to increase at their present rate then methyl chloroform could have a significant effect upon total O3. 相似文献
13.
R. Krishna Rao Vupputuri 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):214-236
A mean meridional circulation model of the stratosphere, incorporating radiative heating and photochemistry of the oxygen‐hydrogen‐nitrogen atmosphere, is used to simulate the meridional distributions of O3, HOX, N2O,NOX, temperature and the three components of mean motion for the summer and winter seasons under steady‐state conditions. The results are generally in good agreement with the available observations in the normal stratosphere. The model has been applied to assess the effects of water vapour and nitrogen oxide perturbations resulting from aircraft emissions in the stratosphere. It is found that a fleet of 500 Boeing‐type sst's, flying at 20 km and 45°N in the summer hemisphere and inserting NOx at a rate of 1.8 megatons per year, has the effect of reducing the global total ozone by 14.7%. Similar calculations for 342 Concorde/TU‐114's, cruising at 17 km and injecting NOx at a rate of 0.35 megatons per year, show a global‐average total‐ozone reduction of 1.85%. Although water vapour is considered important, because of its ability to convert NO2 into HNO3, the direct effect on global‐average total‐ozone reduction resulting from the 100% increase in the stratospheric water content is less than 1%. The changes in the chemical structure (HO^NO^), temperature, and mean motions associated with the ozone reduction are also investigated in the case of the 1.8‐megaton‐per‐year NOX perturbation. It is shown that the reduced meridional temperature gradient in the middle and upper stratosphere resulting from the NOx perturbation leads to the weakening of the tropical easterly jet in the summer hemisphere and mid‐latitude westerlies in the winter season. The sensitivity of the model solutions to an alternate choice of input parameters (diffusion coefficients and solar photodissociation data) is tested and the main deficiency of the model is pointed out. 相似文献
14.
A one-dimensional coupled climate and chemistry model has been developed to estimate past and possible future changes in atmospheric temperatures and chemical composition due to human activities. The model takes into account heat flux into the oceans and uses a new tropospheric temperature lapse rate formulation. As found in other studies, we estimate that the combined greenhouse effect of CH4, O3, CF2Cl2, CFCl3 and N2O in the future will be about as large as that of CO2. Our model calculates an increase in average global surface temperatures by about 0.6°C since the start of the industrial era and predicts for A.D. 2050 a twice as large additional rise. Substantial depletions of ozone in the upper stratosphere by between 25% and 55% are calculated, depending on scenario. Accompanying temperature changes are between 15°C and 25°C. Bromine compounds are found to be important, if no rigid international regulations on CFC emissions are effective. Our model may, however, concivably underestimate possible effects of CFCl3, CF2Cl2, C2F3Cl3 and other CFC and organic bromine emissions on lower stratospheric ozone, because it can not simulate the rapid breakdown of ozone which is now being observed worldwide. An uncertainty study regarding the photochemistry of stratospheric ozone, especially in the region below about 25 km, is included. We propose a reaction, involving excited molecular oxygen formation from ozone photolysis, as a possible solution to the problem of ozone concentrations calculated to be too low above 45 km. We also estimate that tropospheric ozone concentrations have grown strongly in the northern hemisphere since pre-industrial times and that further large increases may take place, especially if global emissions of NOx from fossil fuel and biomass burning were to continue to increase. Growing NOx emissions from aircraft may play an important role in ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere and low stratosphere. 相似文献
15.
利用2014年6月-2017年9月的秒级探空资料,选取四川地区5个代表性站点研究重力波在对流层（2~10 km）和平流层（18~25 km）的时空特征。选取结果表明:重力波能量在四川地区各个高度均存在明显的季节变化,冬季强,夏季弱;在对流层由于地形影响,川西和川北高原地区的能量小于其他地区。垂直波长没有明显的时空变化,在对流层和平流层分别集中分布于1.5~3 km和1.5~3.5 km;水平波长则差别较大,分别分布于0~300 km和100~700 km,平均值分别为100 km和350 km。重力波固有频率在对流层有较大的区域差异,表现为在四川西北部的高原地区固有频率平均值为3f（f为地转参数）,其他地区则仅为2.4f;平流层则没有明显的差异存在,均约为2f。四川地区重力波的垂直传播方向特征基本相同,在对流层约有50%的波动向上传播,平流层则有90%以上的波动向上传播。水平传播则存在明显的不确定性,特别是对流层;平流层水平传播方向存在明显的季节变化,表现为夏季重力波多向偏东方向传播,而其他季节则向偏西方向传播。 相似文献
16.
Alexey V. Eliseev Alexandr V. Chernokulsky Andrey A. Karpenko Igor I. Mokhov 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,101(1-2):67-81
An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860–2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50°N and 70°N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000–2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4–14 TgS/year (2–7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air temperature may grow with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted employing a globally averaged energy–balance climate model. With the latter model, an analytical estimate for sulphate aerosol emissions in the stratosphere required climate mitigation is obtained. It is shown that effective vertical localisation of the imposed radiative forcing is important for geoengineering efficiency. 相似文献
17.
To analyze the mechanism by which water vapor increase leads to cooling in the stratosphere, the effects of water-vapor increases on temperature in the stratosphere were simulated using the two-dimensional, interactive chemical dynamical radiative model (SOCRATES) of NCAR. The results indicate that increases in stratospheric water vapor lead to stratospheric cooling, with the extent of cooling increasing with height, and that cooling in the middle stratosphere is stronger in Arctic regions. Analysis of the radiation process showed that infrared radiative cooling by water vapor is a pivotal factor in middle-lower stratospheric cooling. However, in the upper stratosphere (above 45 km), infrared radiation is not a factor in cooling; there, cooling is caused by the decreased solar radiative heating rate resulting from ozone decrease due to increased stratospheric water vapor. Dynamical cooling is important in the middle-upper stratosphere, and dynamical feedback to temperature change is more distinct in the Northern Hemisphere middle-high latitudes than in other regions and signiffcantly affects temperature and ozone in winter over Arctic regions. Increasing stratospheric water vapor will strengthen ozone depletion through the chemical process. However, ozone will increase in the middle stratosphere. The change in ozone due to increasing water vapor has an important effect on the stratospheric temperature change. 相似文献
18.
This paper describes a diagnostic study of the feedback mechanism in greenhouse effects of increased CO_2 and oth-er trace gases(CH_4,N_2O and CFCs),simulated by general circulation model.The study is based on two sensitivity exper-iments for doubled CO_2 and the inclusion of other trace gases,respectively,using version one of the community climatemodel(CCM1)developed at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research.A one-dimensional(1-D)and atwo-dimensional(2-D)radiative-convective models are used to diagnose the feedback effect.It shows that thefeedback factors in global and annual mean conditions are in the sequence of surface albedo,water vapor amount,watervapor distribution,cloud height,critical lapse rate and cloud cover,while in zonal and annual mean conditions in thetropical region the above sequence does not change except the two water vapor terms being the largest feedback compo-nents.Among the feedback components,the total water vapor feedback is the largest(about 50%).The diagnosis alsogives a very small feedback of either the cloud cover or the lapse rate,which is substantially different from the 1-Dfeedback analysis by Hansen et al.(1984).The small lapse rate feedback is considered to be partly caused by theconvective adjustment scheme adopted by CCM1 model.The feedback effect for doubled CO_2 is very different from that of the addition of other trace gases because of theirdifferent vertical distributions of radiative forcing although the non-feedback responses of surface air temperature forboth cases are almost the same.For instance,the larger forcing at surface by the addition of other trace gases can causestronger surface albedo feedback than by doubled CO_2.Besides,because of the negative forcing of doubled CO_2 in thestratosphere,cloud height feedback is more intense.The larger surface forcing in the case of other trace gases can also in-fluence atmospheric water vapor amount as well as the water vapor distribution,which will in turn have strongerfeedback effects.All these indicate that it is incorrect to use“effective CO_2”to replace other trace gases in the generalcirculation model. 相似文献
19.
热带平流层臭氧准两年周期振荡的特征及数值模拟 总被引：19，自引：1，他引：19
利用HALOE的观测资料、对热带地区平流层臭氧垂直分布的年际变化及其准两年周期振荡（QBO）进行研究，并同赤道上空平均的纬向风场的准两年周期振荡进行了模拟研究。资料分析结果表明，平流层臭氧浓度高值区的位置在南北方向上和垂直方向上的有明显的准两年周期，臭氧浓度高值中心的南北移动和上下移动又引起局地臭氧总量的周期性变化和准两年周期振荡南北半球不对称。而臭氧浓度中心位置的准两年周期变化与赤道上空平均纬向风的准两年周期振荡密切相关。资料分析还表明，赤道上空平流层中臭氧浓度QBO的位相随高度变化多次。模拟试验表明，纬向风QBO引起垂直经圈环流的变化，在平流层有三对余差环流圈。它们对O3在不同纬度和高度的输送是引起O3准两年周期振荡的重要动力原因。其中，余差环流在平流层中层（25－35km)的环流圈起着重要的作用。 相似文献