共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 132 毫秒
1.
2.
利用香港Kings Park探空站(站号45004)2003—2009年探空资料回归了大气加权平均温度Tm、地面温度Ts、气压es和水汽压Ps的线性公式.通过比较分析发现Tm Ts单因素回归结果和Tm Ts、es、Ps多因素回归结果没有显著差异,但基于本地化探空数据的回归公式精度比Bevis公式高;增加样本数回归分析并不能显著提高公式精度,采用最近一月探空数据回归公式即可很好地由Ts拟合下年Tm,拟合均方根误差(F RMS)为1946 K;用2003年数据回归出的经验公式Tm=11329+05 863Ts去拟合2004—2009年的数据,拟合均方根误差〖JP2〗基本没有差异,因此某地Tm Ts经验公式一次回归可长期使用．通过对全国83个国际交换站2009年探空数据回归得出我国大陆地区最新Tm Ts经验公式为Tm=〖JP〗53244+0783Ts,该一般公式拟合均方根误差与本站数据回归剩余均方根误差(RRMS)相当,可代替本地公式广泛使用． 相似文献
3.
利用1999—2009年安徽省淮河以南地区60个县市站夏季逐日降水资料和安庆市探空站逐日资料,研究了中低层不同风向配置下局地降水与大尺度降水场之间的关系,以3种不同预报对象及相应的预报因子分别采用神经网络和线性回归方法设计6种预报模型对观测资料进行逼近和优化,从而实现空间降尺度.分析对比6种预报模型46站逐日降水量的拟合和预报效果,结果表明:采取相同的预报对象及预报因子的BP神经网络模型在拟合和预报效果上均好于线性回归模型,可见夏季降水场之间以非线性相关为主;神经网络模型预报结果同常用的Cressman插值预报相比,能很好地反映出降水的基本分布及局地特征;预报对象为单站降水序列的神经网络模型在以平原、河流为主要地形的区域预报效果较好,预报对象为REOF主成分的神经网络模型则在山地和丘陵地形区域预报效果较好. 相似文献
4.
为了进一步认识闪电活动与对流层氮氧化物的关系及更准确地估算中国地区闪电产生的氮氧化物(LNOx)总量,选取人口稀疏,工业生产水平较低的青藏高原地区作为研究区域,基于LIS(Lightning Imaging Sensor)和GOME-2(The Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2)卫星探测仪资料,分析了青藏高原中部区域2009年1月至2012年2月闪电与对流层NO2垂直浓度(VCD)月均值资料的时空分布特性和相关性。在此基础上,结合Beirle et al.(2004)的LNOx估算方法,估算了中国内陆地区的LNOx产量。结果表明:青藏高原地区对流层NO2与闪电与在年际趋势、空间分布及季节变化上保持很好的一致性,闪电密度与NO2VCD的线性拟合相关系数为0.84,这表明青藏高原地区NOx受人为源影响小,是研究LNOx的理想区域。基于拟合结果,估算得到中国内陆地区LNOx的年均产量为0.15(0.03~0.38)Tg(N)a-1。这一结论进一步缩小了以往研究中中国地区LNOx产量估算的不确定范围,有助于更清楚地认识闪电在中国气候变化中的重要作用。 相似文献
5.
基于前传式网络逼近的太平洋副热带高压活动的诊断预测 总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13
基于前传式神经网络BP算法(BackpropagationNeuralNetwork)和回归模型,探讨了西太平洋副高面积指数同赤道东太平洋海温及赤道纬向风之间非线性分类和映射逼近的建模方法和效果比较.结果表明,前传式网络,特别是回归网络预报模型具有较好拟合精度和预报效果及比较实用的预报时效. 相似文献
6.
利用江西省南昌和赣州两探空站12年(1999—2010年)每日2次(08时和20时)的探空资料,运用最小二乘法建立了江西地区的加权平均温度Tm模型(江西本地化Tm模型)。基于探空资料计算得到的Tm值,对比分析了江西本地化Tm模型、武汉本地化Tm模型和GAMIT默认Tm模型的模拟结果,发现江西本地化Tm模型的模拟效果最好,武汉本地化Tm模型相对较差。利用GAMIT软件,分别采用江西本地化Tm模型、武汉本地化Tm模型和GAMIT默认Tm模型,对2010年1月至2010年12月南昌、赣州等地的GPS大气可降水量进行了解算,并与探空计算的大气可降水量作了对比分析,结果发现采用江西本地化Tm模型后解算得到的GPS大气可降水量精度最高,而采用GAMIT默认Tm模型的精度相对较差。 相似文献
7.
基于探空资料的雷暴潜势预报方法 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用常规探空资料计算出多种对流指数,结合高空要素和物理量场等资料,针对浙江省的3个探空站分别建立统计预报方程;对逐个探空站100 km的范围采取区域划分的方法,可以有效提高预报方程的拟合效果.最后利用2007年6～7月的独立资料进行效果检验,结果显示,预报探测率(POD)平均87.5％,虚假警报率(FAR)平均26.7... 相似文献
8.
利用典型相关分析作攀枝花市雨季开始期预报试验,选择1965～2001年的海洋特征指数、500hpa环流指数、太阳黑子数作为预报因子,建立典型回归模型.再以典型变量作为预报因子,用逐步回归和最优子集回归分别建立各站的预报模型,用2002～2004年的资料进行检验,对比试验结果表明:逐步回归和最优子集回归预报效果较好,典型回归模型效果较差. 相似文献
9.
10.
南京青奥会开幕式期间人工减雨作业对雨滴谱的影响分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文利用南京青奥会开幕式期间的OTT雨滴谱仪观测资料、探空数据和地面降雨及雷达等资料,结合火箭减雨作业的时间和地点,通过人工减雨作业对雨滴谱的影响分析来评估开幕式期间人工减雨作业的效果。首先以奥体中心为目标区域,利用探空数据分析火箭减雨作业的最佳高度和作业点与奥体中心的最佳距离,所得结果与实际作业情况一致。然后,利用实测雨滴谱拟合滴谱廓线,计算雨滴粒子平均直径、中数直径等特征直径,对比南京站点人工减雨作业前后时刻的雨滴谱变化;再拟合各时刻的雨滴粒子总数浓度、雨滴谱谱型参数γ(反映雨滴粒子尺度分布),将人工减雨作业后同时段内的南京站点与芜湖站点的雨滴谱作比较分析。结果发现人工减雨作业后,南京站点的雨滴谱较作业前谱宽变窄,直径小于1 mm的小滴粒子占比增加,大于1 mm的大滴粒子减少,雨滴粒子各特征直径均小于作业前;同时段内南京站点雨滴粒子总数浓度、质量加权平均直径在减雨作业影响时段内均小于芜湖站点,而谱型参数γ总体大于芜湖,且随时间变化趋势与芜湖站点相反。这些特征表明人工减雨作业明显改变了雨滴谱分布,有效减小了雨滴群中的大粒子,从而抑制了降雨的发展,起到减雨效果。 相似文献
11.
Analysis of the Weighted Mean Temperature of China Based on Sounding and ECMWF Reanalysis Data 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Weighted mean temperature (Tm) is one of the most important conversion parameters for calculating precipitable water vapor by the signal path wet delay in ground-based GPS meteorology. This paper first discusses the Tmregression models for Hong Kong (HK) and the associated error statistics relative to the true values of Tmfrom the numerical method. The results show that there is little difference in precision between annual and seasonal Tmregression models for HK. The Bevis Tm-Ts(surface temperature) regression model is more suitable for northeastern China and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau than the local models. For areas lack of historical sounding data, the Kriging interpolation method and the ECMWF reanalysis product ERA-interim were employed to set up local Tm-Ts models. The results indicate that the Tmderived by the ERA-interim data coincides well with that by the sounding data, and the Kriging interpolation method can successfully obtain the coefficients of local Tm-Tsmodels, suggesting that these two approaches may serve as effective ways in the acquisition and localization of Tm. 相似文献
12.
双偏振天气雷达Z_(dr)系统偏差是影响雷达数据质量的关键因素,本文利用南京信息工程大学C波段双偏振天气雷达,对90°仰角天顶扫描数据在Z_(dr)系统偏差订正中的应用进行了分析,同时增加90°仰角定点观测模式,讨论并确认了方位旋转关节对Z_(dr)测量结果的影响,在双偏振天气雷达雷达Z_(dr)系统偏差订正中加入了方位旋转关节因素。研究结果表明:选择合适的90°仰角数据,不仅可以对接收双通道不一致造成的Z_(dr)固定系统偏差进行订正,还能够进一步检测由方位旋转关节衰减不同引起的误差;利用90°仰角数据对Z_(dr)的系统偏差进行订正,稳定性和精度较高,满足双偏振天气雷达Z_(dr)精度要求。 相似文献
13.
Generally, it is assumed that UV-light, high temperature or reactive molecules like O3 and OH are needed to activate gas reactions in air. In consequence, the catalytic activity on natural materials such as sand and soil on the earth's surface is assumed to be insignificant. We have measured O2-dissociation rates on natural quartz sand at 40˚C and compared these with O2-dissociation rates near 500˚C on materials with well-known catalytic activity. In terms of probabilities for dissociation of impinging O2-molecules the measured rates are in the 10−12–10−4 range. We have also measured dissociation rates of H2 and N2, water-formation from H2 and O2 mixtures, exchange of N between N2, NO
x
and a breakdown of HNO3, NO2 and CH4 on natural quartz sand at 40˚C. The measured rates together with an effective global land area have been used to estimate the impact of thermodynamically driven reactions on the earth's surface on the global atmospheric budgets of H2, NO2 and CH4. The experimental data on natural quartz sand together with data from equilibrium calculations of air suggest that an expected increase in anthropogenic supply of air pollutants, such as NO
x
or other “reactive” nitrogen compounds, hydrogen and methane, will be counter-acted by catalysis on the earth's surface. On the other hand, at Polar Regions and boreal forests where the “reactive” nitrogen concentration is below equilibrium, the same catalytic effect activates formation of bio-available nitrogen compounds from N2, O2 and H2O. 相似文献
14.
面对日益严峻的大气污染形势,针对卫星气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）资料在灰霾数值预报领域的合理有效利用问题,使用WRF-Chem（WRF coupled with Chemistry）大气化学模式以及GSI（Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation）三维变分同化系统,利用MODIS和FY-3A/MERSI AOD资料,对一次灰霾天气过程进行了同化预报试验。试验结果显示,同化卫星AOD资料有效改善了模式初始场,MODIS和MERSI同化试验分别在AOD分析场的中心强度和空间分布各具优势,且对PM2.5和PM10的后续预报改进明显;从统计分析上看,同化试验的预报效果整体上好于控制试验,同化试验中PM2.5和PM10预报值的平均值、中值、平均偏差、均方根误差等指标均明显优于控制试验,且MODIS和MERSI同化试验分别在PM2.5和PM10预报统计结果中体现出了优势;卫星AOD资料同化能明显降低污染事件的空报率和漏报率,提高预报的TS评分和ETS评分。不同卫星AOD资料的差异对分析场中AOD的分布和强度产生了相应影响,进而影响了模式的灰霾预报效果;本次试验中,MODIS和MERSI AOD同化试验分别在PM2.5和PM10预报的评分上表现更佳。结果表明,卫星AOD资料同化对数值预报产生了积极的效果。 相似文献
15.
16.
K. Slezakova M. C. Pereira M. A. Reis M. C. Alvim-Ferraz 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,58(1):55-68
Epidemiological studies initially considered the impact of total solid particles on human health, but according to the acquired
knowledge about the worse effect of smaller particles, those studies turned to consider the impact of PM10. However, for the last decade PM2.5 began to be more important, once as they are smaller they can penetrate deeper in the lungs, being possible their trapping
in alveoli and worse effects on human health. Therefore, more information on PM2.5 should be provided namely concerning the levels and elemental composition. Considering the relevance of traffic on the emission
of particles of small sizes, this work included the detailed characterization of PM10 and PM2.5, sampled at two sites directly influenced by traffic, as well as at two reference sites, aiming a further evaluation of the
influence of PM10 and PM2.5 on public health. The specific objectives were to study the influence of traffic emission on PM10 and PM2.5 characteristics, considering concentration, size distribution and elemental composition. PM10 and PM2.5 samples were collected using low-volume samplers; the element analyses were performed by particle induced X-ray emission
(PIXE). At the sites influenced by traffic emissions PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were 7–9 and 6–7 times higher than at the background sites. The presence of 17 elements (Mg, Al, Si, P, S,
Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn and Pb) was determined in both PM fractions; particle metal contents were 3–44 and
3–27 times higher for PM10 and PM2.5, respectively, than at the backgrounds sites. The elements originated mostly from anthropogenic activities (S, K, V, Mn,
Ni, Zn and Pb) were predominantly present in PM2.5, while the elements mostly originated from crust (Mg, Al, Si and Ca) predominantly occurred in PM2.5–10. The results also showed that in coastal areas sea salt spray is an important source of particles, influencing PM concentration
and distributions (PM10 increased by 46%, PM2.5/PM10 decreased by 26%), as well as PM compositions (Cl in PM10 was 11 times higher). 相似文献
17.
热带太平洋表面水中CO2对El Niño事件响应的数值模拟 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
文中用一个带生物泵的三维全球海洋碳循环模式模拟了热带太平洋表面水中CO2总量(TCO2)在ElNi 相似文献
18.
J. Pey N. Prez S. Castillo M. Viana T. Moreno M. Pandolfi J.M. Lpez-Sebastin A. Alastuey X. Querol 《Atmospheric Research》2009,94(3):422-435
The chemical composition of regional background aerosols, and the time variability and sources in the Western Mediterranean are interpreted in this study. To this end 2002–2007 PM speciation data from an European Supersite for Atmospheric Aerosol Research (Montseny, MSY, located 40 km NNE of Barcelona in NE Spain) were evaluated, with these data being considered representative of regional background aerosols in the Western Mediterranean Basin. The mean PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 levels at MSY during 2002–2007 were 16, 14 and 11 µg/m3, respectively. After compiling data on regional background PM speciation from Europe to compare our data, it is evidenced that the Western Mediterranean aerosol is characterised by higher concentrations of crustal material but lower levels of OM + EC and ammonium nitrate than at central European sites. Relatively high PM2.5 concentrations due to the transport of anthropogenic aerosols (mostly carbonaceous and sulphate) from populated coastal areas were recorded, especially during winter anticyclonic episodes and summer midday PM highs (the latter associated with the transport of the breeze and the expansion of the mixing layer). Source apportionment analyses indicated that the major contributors to PM2.5 and PM10 were secondary sulphate, secondary nitrate and crustal material, whereas the higher load of the anthropogenic component in PM2.5 reflects the influence of regional (traffic and industrial) emissions. Levels of mineral, sulphate, sea spray and carbonaceous aerosols were higher in summer, whereas nitrate levels and Cl/Na were higher in winter. A considerably high OC/EC ratio (14 in summer, 10 in winter) was detected, which could be due to a combination of high biogenic emissions of secondary organic aerosol, SOA precursors, ozone levels and insolation, and intensive recirculation of aged air masses. Compared with more locally derived crustal geological dusts, African dust intrusions introduce relatively quartz-poor but clay mineral-rich silicate PM, with more kaolinitic clays from central North Africa in summer, and more smectitic clays from NW Africa in spring. 相似文献
19.
Particle composition and size distributions in and around a deep-pit swine operation,Ames, IA 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Randal S. Martin Philip J. Silva Kori Moore Mark Erupe Vishal S. Doshi 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2008,59(2):135-150
The contribution of emissions from agricultural facilities is rapidly becoming a major concern for local and regional air
quality. Characterization of particle properties such as physical size distribution and chemical composition can be valuable
in understanding the processes contributing to emissions and ultimate fate of particulate matter from agricultural facilities.
A measurement campaign was conducted at an Iowa, deep-pit, three-barn swine finishing facility to characterize near-source
ambient particulate matter. Size-specific mass concentrations were determined using minivol samplers, with additional size
distribution information obtain using optical particle counters. Particulate composition was determined via ion chromatographic
analysis of the collected filters. A thermal-CO2 elemental/organic carbon analyzer measured particulate carbon. The chemical composition and size distribution of sub-micron
particles were determined via real-time aerosol mass spectrometry. Primary particulate was not found to be a major emission
from the examined facility, with filter-based impactor samples showing average near-source increases (~15–50 m) in ambient
PM10 of 5.8 ± 2.9 μg m−3 above background levels. PM2.5 also showed contribution attributable to the facility (1.7 ± 1.1 μg m−3). Optical particle counter analysis of the numerical size distributions showed bimodal distributions for both the upwind
and downwind conditions, with maximums around 2.5 μm and below the minimum quantified diameter of 0.3 μm. The distributions
showed increased numbers of coarse particles (PM10) during periods when wind transport came from the barns, but the differences were not statistically significant at the 95%
confidence level. The PM10 aerosols showed statistically increased concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, calcium, organic carbon, and elemental
carbon when the samplers were downwind from the pig barns. Organic carbon was the major constituent of the barn-impacted particulate
matter in both sub-micron (54%) and coarse size (20%) ranges. The AMS PM1 chemical speciation showed similar species increases, with the exception of and Ca+2, the latter not quantified by the AMS. 相似文献
20.
本文利用2014年全年北京市12个空气质量监测站的逐小时PM_(2.5)地面观测资料,以及Terra卫星和Aqua卫星的MODIS 3 km气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品,分析了地面PM_(2.5)和两颗卫星AOD的时空分布特征,并在时空匹配的基础上,建立了AOD与PM_(2.5)浓度之间的回归模型。结果表明:PM_(2.5)浓度在城区高、郊区低,最低值位于定陵站,城区站和郊区站的逐时PM_(2.5)浓度的日变化分别呈"双峰型"和"单峰型";两颗卫星AOD数值也均是城区高、郊区低,沿山区的边界有明显的AOD梯度,且城区上午Terra卫星的AOD高于下午Aqua卫星的AOD,而郊区上、下午的AOD基本相同;Aqua卫星AOD与PM_(2.5)的确定系数(R2)较Terra卫星AOD与PM_(2.5)的确定系数平均高0.11,且城区站点两颗卫星AOD与PM_(2.5)相关性均较郊区站点AOD与PM_(2.5)相关性偏高;综合来看,Aqua卫星的AOD与城区的PM_(2.5)相关系数最高,即Aqua卫星的AOD更适于监测和反演城区地面的PM_(2.5)。 相似文献