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1.
Interannual Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northern Indian Ocean Associated with ENSO and IOD 
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下载免费PDF全文 The Northern Indian Ocean(NIO) sea surface temperature(SST) warming,associated with the El Ni o/Southern Oscillations(ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) mode,is investigated using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) monthly data for the period 1979 2010.Statistical analyses are used to identify respective contribution from ENSO and IOD.The results indicate that the first NIO SST warming in September November is associated with an IOD event,while the second NIO SST warming in spring-summer following the mature phase of ENSO is associated with an ENSO event.In the year that IOD co-occurred with ENSO,NIO SST warms twice,rising in the ENSO developing year and decay year.Both shortwave radiation and latent heat flux contribute to the NIO SST variation.The change in shortwave radiation is due to the change in cloudiness.A cloud-SST feedback plays an important role in NIO SST warming.The latent heat flux is related to the change in monsoonal wind.In the first NIO warming,the SST anomaly is mainly due to the change in the latent heat flux.In the second NIO warming,both factors are important. 相似文献
2.
The energy budget of the two versions of the GOALS model (GOALS-1.1 and GOALS-2) is described and compared to observational estimates.The results illustrate that the simulated surface net shortwave radiation flux is underestimated in the high-latitude regions while the surface net longwave radiation flux is substantially overestimated in that region,which results in the lower surface air temperature (SAT) of the polar region and the stronger negative sensible heat flux in high latitudes.The overestimated sensible heat flux from surface to atmosphere in the continents causes the much warmer SAT centers,which may be the reason for the bias of the model SAT. The bias that the simulated precipitation is less than observation in most regions is closely related to the underestimated latent heat flux over most of the Eurasian Continent and the oceans, especially over the subtropical oceans.It can be seen that the bias in the OLR of the two models lies in low and middle latitudes,where the absorbed solar shortwave radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere is comparable to the NCEP reanalysis,but much less than ERBE data.This indicates that the improvement of cloud-radiation parameterization scheme in low and middle latitudes is of critical importance to the simulation of global energy budget.The simulated cloud cover from the GOALS-2 model with diagnosed cloud scheme is generally less except at equatorial areas, especially in the mid-latitude areas,which causes the large bias of energy budget there.It is suggested that the refinement of cloud parameterization is one of the most important tasks in the model's future development. 相似文献
3.
Various ocean reanalysis data reveal that the subarctic Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) has been cooling during the twentieth century. A similar cooling pattern is found in the doubling CO2 experiment obtained from the CMIP3 (coupled model intercomparison project third phase) compared to the pre-industrial experiment. Here, in order to investigate the main driver of this cooling, we perform the heat budget analysis on the subarctic Atlantic upper ocean temperature. The net surface heat flux associated with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases heats the subarctic ocean surface. In the most of models, the longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux exert a warming effect, and the shortwave radiation exerts a cooling effect. On the other hand, the thermal advection by the meridional current reduces the subarctic upper ocean temperature in all models. This cold advection is attributed to the weakening of the meridional overturning circulation, which is related to the reduction in the ocean surface density. In particular, greater warming of the surface air than of the sea surface results in the reduction of surface evaporation and thereby enhanced freshening of the ocean surface water, while precipitation change was smaller than evaporation change. The thermal advections by both the wind-driven Ekman current and the density-driven geostrophic current contribute to cooling in most of the models, where the heat transport by the geostrophic current tends to be larger than that by the Ekman current. 相似文献
4.
Using a non-linear statistical analysis called “self-organizing maps”, the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations
in the southern Indian Ocean are investigated. The SST anomalies during austral summer from 1951 to 2006 are classified into
nine types with differences in the position of positive and negative SST anomaly poles. To investigate the evolution of these
SST anomaly poles, heat budget analysis of mixed-layer using outputs from an ocean general circulation model is conducted.
The warming of the mixed-layer by the climatological shortwave radiation is enhanced (suppressed) as a result of negative
(positive) mixed-layer thickness anomaly over the positive (negative) SST anomaly pole. This contribution from shortwave radiation
is most dominant in the growth of SST anomalies. In contrast to the results reported so far, the contribution from latent
heat flux anomaly is not so important. The discrepancy in the analysis is explained by the modulation in the contribution
from the climatological heat flux by the interannual mixed-layer depth anomaly that was neglected in the past studies. 相似文献
5.
Future changes and uncertainties in temperature and precipitation over China based on CMIP5 models 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Climate changes in future 21 st century China and their uncertainties are evaluated based on 22 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5). By 2081–2100, the annual mean surface air temperature(SAT) is predicted to increase by 1.3℃± 0.7℃, 2.6℃± 0.8℃ and 5.2℃± 1.2℃ under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, relative to 1986–2005, respectively. The future change in SAT averaged over China increases the most in autumn/winter and the least in spring, while the uncertainty shows little seasonal variation.Spatially, the annual and seasonal mean SAT both show a homogeneous warming pattern across China, with a warming rate increasing from southeastern China to the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, invariant with time and emissions scenario.The associated uncertainty in SAT decreases from northern to southern China. Meanwhile, by 2081–2100, the annual mean precipitation increases by 5% ± 5%, 8% ± 6% and 12% ± 8% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The national average precipitation anomaly percentage, largest in spring and smallest in winter, and its uncertainty, largest in winter and smallest in autumn, show visible seasonal variations. Although at a low confidence level, a homogeneous wetting pattern is projected across China on the annual mean scale, with a larger increasing percentage in northern China and a weak drying in southern China in the early 21 st century. The associated uncertainty is also generally larger in northern China and smaller in southwestern China. In addition, both SAT and precipitation usually show larger seasonal variability on the sub-regional scale compared with the national average. 相似文献
6.
A region of low sea surface temperature (SST) extends southward in the central part of southern South China Sea during boreal winter, which is called the South China Sea cold tongue (SCS CT). The present study investigates the factors of interannual variation of SST in the SCS CT region and explores the individual and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on the SCS CT intensity. During years with ENSO alone or with co-existing ENSO and anomalous EAWM, shortwave radiation and ocean horizontal advection play major roles in the interannual variation of the SCS CT intensity. Ocean advection contributes largely to the SST change in the region southeast of Vietnam. In strong CT years with anomalous EAWM alone, surface wind-related latent heat flux has a major role and shortwave radiation is secondary to the EAWM-induced change of the SCS CT intensity, whereas the role of ocean horizontal advection is relatively small. The above differences in the roles of ocean advection and latent heat flux are associated with the distribution of low level wind anomalies. In anomalous CT years with ENSO, low level anomalous cyclone/anticyclone-related wind speed change leads to latent heat flux anomalies with effects opposite to shortwave radiation. In strong CT years with anomalous EAWM alone, surface wind-related latent heat flux anomalies are large as anomalous winds are aligned with climatological winds.
相似文献7.
成里京 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(2):172-181
工业革命以来,大气中温室气体不断增加,驱动了全球变暖。IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)指出,人类排放的温室气体导致的地球系统能量增加中90%以上都被海洋吸收,使得海洋增暖,海洋热含量增加。IPCC最新发布的《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)发现：自1970年以来,几乎确定海洋上层2000 m在持续增暖。1993—2017年间的增暖速率至少为1969—1993年的2倍,体现出显著的变暖增强趋势。此外,在20世纪90年代以后,2000 m以下的深海也已观测到了变暖信号,尤其是在南大洋(30°S以南)。在1970—2017年间,南大洋上层2000 m储存了全球海洋约35%~43%的热量,在2005—2017年期间增加到45%~62%。基于耦合气候模型预估,几乎可确定海洋将在21世纪持续增暖,2018—2100年间海洋热含量上升幅度可能是1970—2017年间的5~7倍(RCP8.5情景)或2~4倍(RCP2.6情景)。变暖导致的热膨胀效应贡献了1993年以来全球海平面上升的约43%。 相似文献
8.
利用1979—2017年TropFlux海气热通量资料、ERA5再分析资料及HadISST资料,分析了冬季北大西洋涛动（North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO）与同期热带印度洋海气热通量的关系。结果表明,NAO指数与热带印度洋海气净热通量整体上呈负相关,意味着NAO为正位相时,海洋向大气输送热量,其显著区域主要位于热带西印度洋（50°～70°E,10°S～10°N）。净热通量的变化主要依赖于潜热通量和短波辐射的变化;潜热通量和短波辐射在NAO正（负）位相事件期间的贡献率分别为72.96％和61.48％（71.72％和57.06％）。NAO可通过Rossby波列影响印度洋地区局地大气环流,进而影响海气热通量;当NAO为正位相时,波列沿中低纬路径传播至印度洋地区,在阿拉伯海北部对流层高层触发异常反气旋环流。该异常反气旋性环流加强了阿拉伯高压,使得北印度洋偏北风及越赤道气流加强。伴随风速的加强,海面蒸发增强,同时加强的越赤道气流导致热带辐合带强度偏强,深对流加强引起对流层水汽和云量增多,进而引起海表下行短波辐射减少。 相似文献
9.
海-陆-气全球耦合模式能量收支的误差 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
通过分析GOALS模式两个版本GOALS 1.1和GOALS 2的能量收支 ,并与观测对比 ,结果表明 :模式模拟的地表净短波辐射通量在高纬地区偏低 ,而净长波辐射通量又偏高 ,导致极地表面温度偏低 ,感热通量在高纬地区为很高的负值。而在陆地上感热加热作用显著偏强 ,使地表有较大的向上净能量给大气 ,引起陆地上有些暖中心也偏强 ,这也解释了模式模拟地表面空气温度场的误差原因。海洋上潜热通量偏低 ,特别是在副热带洋面上偏少更明显。陆地上的欧亚和北美大陆大部分地区潜热通量仍偏低。这也是模式降水在大部分地区偏少的重要原因。两模式大气顶OLR偏低的模拟主要是在中低纬度 ,大气顶净短波辐射通量的模拟在中低纬度虽然与NCEP结果接近 ,但与地球辐射收支试验ERBE资料比较仍偏小较多 ,说明改进中低纬度云 辐射参数化方案对改进全球能量收支的模拟有重要意义。GOALS 2模式中诊断云方案模拟的云量除赤道地区外普遍偏小 ,尤以中纬度为甚 ,造成那里能量收支出现大的误差 ,这表明了更好的云参数化方案的引入是今后模式发展的重要任务之一 相似文献
10.
表层积雪的能量收支特征对积雪物理特性变化和融雪等过程具有重要影响。本研究利用2010年融雪期在中国科学院天山积雪雪崩研究站内的雪层密度、含水率、雪层温度以及热通量等观测数据,分析在距雪表40 cm范围内雪层能量收支的时空变化特征。结果表明:表层积雪的能量交换主要发生在距雪表20 cm范围内,短波穿透辐射是表层积雪最重要的能量来源。热传导、短波穿透辐射和潜热均随时间逐渐增加。在过渡期和融雪前期,表层积雪的平均总能量为负,融雪主要发生在积雪表层。由于夜晚潜热影响使得融雪后期表层积雪总能量为正值。融雪能影响整个雪层。 相似文献
11.
南海夏季风爆发前后海-气界面热交换特征 总被引：20，自引：1，他引：20
文中利用 2 0 0 0与 2 0 0 2年二次南海海 气通量观测资料和同期西沙站资料 ,研究了南海夏季风爆发前后海洋表面热收支变化特征。研究表明 :南海夏季风爆发前后 ,影响海面热收支变化的主要分量是净短波辐射通量和潜热通量 ,在季风爆发前后不同阶段 ,二个分量的变化有不同表现形式 ,但不论二者如何变化 ,季风爆发与活跃期 ,海面热收入减小或为净支出 ;季风爆发前及中断期间 ,海面热收入逐渐增加 ;由于大的热惯性 ,海温变化落后于海面热收支的变化 ,海温的这种滞后效应通过影响潜热通量调节海面热收支的变化 ,又反过来影响自身的变化 ,形成短期振荡过程 ,这种振荡过程与季风的活跃、中断过程相对应。 相似文献
12.
We assess the effects of the North Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (NASST) on North East Asian (NEA) surface temperature. We use a set of sensitivity experiments, performed with MetUM-GOML2, an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a multi-level ocean mixed layer model, to mimic warming and cooling over the North Atlantic Ocean. Results show that a warming of the NASST is associated with a significant warming over NEA. Two mechanisms are pointed out to explain the NASST—North East Asia surface temperature relationship. First, the warming of the NASST is associated with a modulation of the northern hemisphere circulation, due to the propagation of a Rossby wave (i.e. the circumglobal teleconnection). The change in the atmosphere circulation is associated with advections of heat from the Pacific Ocean to NEA and with an increase in net surface shortwave radiation over NEA, both acting to increase NEA surface temperature. Second, the warming of the NASST is associated with a cooling (warming) over the eastern (western) Pacific Ocean, which modulates the circulation over the western Pacific Ocean and NEA. Additional simulations, in which Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are kept constant, show that the modulation of the circumglobal teleconnection is key to explaining impacts of the NASST on NEA surface temperature.
相似文献13.
The epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of El Niño induced tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming in the context of mid-1970s regime shift is investigated in this study. El Niño induced warming is delayed by one season in the northern TIO during epoch-2 (post mid-1970) and southern TIO during epoch-1 (pre mid-1970). Significant spatiotemporal changes in TIO (especially in the north) warming are apparent during the developing phase of El Niño. The ocean dynamics is the major driver in the basin wide warming during epoch-2 whereas heat fluxes are the dominant processes during epoch-1. Strong coupling between thermocline and sea surface temperature (SST) in epoch-2 indicates that El Niño induced oceanic changes are very significant in the seasonal evolution of basin-wide warming. The thermocline-SST coupling is strengthened by the upward propagating subsurface warming in epoch-2. The westward propagating barrier layer over southern TIO supports persistence of warm SST (over southwest TIO in epoch-2), which in turn induce spring asymmetric mode in winds and precipitation. The asymmetric wind pattern and persistent subsidence over maritime continent are primarily responsible for stronger spring warming in epoch-2. The strong east equatorial Indian Ocean cooling in epoch-2 is mainly driven by coastal upwelling over Java–Sumatra coast, whereas in epoch-1 the weak cooling is controlled by the latent heat flux. The spatiotemporal changes in TIO SST warming and their evolution have strong impact on atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution over the Indian Oceanic rim through local air–sea interaction. 相似文献
14.
This study aims to explore the relative role of oceanic dynamics and surface heat fluxes in the warming of southern Arabian Sea and southwest Indian Ocean during the development of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events by using National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) daily reanalysis data and Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) monthly mean ocean reanalysis data from 1982 to 2013, based on regression analysis, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and combined with a 2? layer dynamic upper-ocean model. The results show that during the initial stage of IOD events, warm downwelling Rossby waves excited by an anomalous anticyclone over the west Indian Peninsula, southwest Indian Ocean and southeast Indian Ocean lead to the warming of the mixed layer by reducing entrainment cooling. An anomalous anticyclone over the west Indian Peninsula weakens the wind over the Arabian Sea and Somali coast, which helps decrease the sea surface heat loss and shallow the surface mixed layer, and also contributes to the sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the southern Arabian Sea by inhibiting entrainment. The weakened winds increase the SST along the Somali coast by inhibiting upwelling and zonal advection. The wind and net sea surface heat flux anomalies are not significant over the southwest Indian Ocean. During the antecedent stage of IOD events, the warming of the southern Arabian Sea is closely connected with the reduction of entrainment cooling caused by the Rossby waves and the weakened wind. With the appearance of an equatorial easterly wind anomaly, the warming of the southwest Indian Ocean is not only driven by weaker entrainment cooling caused by the Rossby waves, but also by the meridional heat transport carried by Ekman flow. The anomalous sea surface heat flux plays a key role to damp the warming of the west pole of the IOD. 相似文献
15.
为了研究和揭示宁夏南部地气能量传输过程及特点并进一步评估退耕还林还草的生态效应, 利用Landsat-7 ETM+卫星遥感资料所求取的地表特征参数, 将地表分成水体、裸地、半裸地、草地、林地5类地表覆盖类型, 结合常规气象观测资料, 分别计算得出宁夏南部地表辐射和热量平衡各量的区域分布, 并给出各量的分布图和直方图, 分类别讨论了地表辐射和热量平衡各量分布特征, 使得对宁夏南部区域地表辐射和热量平衡区域分布有一个直观、综合的了解和认识。研究表明, 植被分布对地表辐射和热量平衡各量影响很大。 相似文献
16.
Zhangwei Ding Zhiping Wen Renguang Wu Zhenchao Li Jianjun Zhu Weibiao Li Maoqiu Jian 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):349-363
The land surface energy exchange depends highly on the surface properties. Little is known of the energy balance over a typical banana plantation of humid tropics. In this study, we examine the characteristics of surface energy exchange over a typical banana field in South China during the period of May 2010 to April 2011 by using the eddy covariance and micrometeorological tower. The results showed that the diurnal and seasonal variations in surface latent heat flux were larger compared with those over the nearby grassland. The dominant energy partitioning varies with season. The latent heat flux was the main consumer of net radiation in summer, whereas the sensible heat flux was the main consumer in winter. The increasing cloud coverage and rain appear to control the surface energy balance with the development of the monsoon. Due to increased afternoon convective cloud systems in the monsoon active period, downward shortwave radiation was dramatically diminished around 14:00?pm. The annual mean Bowen ratio was 0.69, which fell within the range of other vegetated surfaces. The observed surface energy components were not closed, and the ratio of turbulent fluxes to the available energy was about 77 % in October–January and about 85 % in the other months after considering soil heat and air heat storage. 相似文献
17.
Against a background of climate change, Macau is very exposed to sea level rise(SLR) because of its low elevation,small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macau, both historical and, especially,possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macau is now rising at an accelerated rate: 1.35 mm yr-1over 1925–2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr-1over 1970–2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macau contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macau will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8–12, 22–51 and 35–118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the +8.5 W m-2Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP8.5) scenario the increase in sea level by2100 will reach 65–118 cm—double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21 st century but begin to diverge thereafter. 相似文献
18.
利用近三十年逐月的OISST和ERSST资料、NCEP2表面风场等资料和数据分析了南印度洋偶极子的形成原因、结构特征.结果表明：南印度洋偶极子形态的年际SST异常出现在10-12月,有两个明显的冷暖中心,达到极值是在次年的2月份,然后在4-5月份消亡;南印度洋偶极子的形成主要是风场、潜热通量起作用,另外,短波辐射通量也对其有重要的影响;SIOD在北半球春冬季出现,达到盛期是在次年的二月份或三月份,超前ENSO9-10个月,且具有季节锁相特征,在70年代中期的年代际气候突变后,SIOD与ENSO的关系显著增强. 相似文献
19.
BCC_CSM1.1对10年尺度全球及区域温度的预测研究 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
近期10～30年时间尺度的年代际预测是第五次耦合模式国际比较计划(CMIP5)重要内容之一。按照CMIP5试验要求, 国家气候中心利用气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1完成并提交了年代际试验结果。本文评估了该模式年代际试验对10年尺度全球及区域地表温度的预测能力, 并通过与20世纪历史气候模拟试验的对比分析, 研究模式模拟对海洋初始观测状态的依赖程度。分析结果表明:(1)在有、无海洋初始化条件下, 模式均能模拟出1960～2005年间全球10年平均实测地表温度的变暖趋势, 但在有海洋初始化条件下, 可以明显减小BCC_CSM1.1模式模拟的全球升温趋势, 使得年代际试验比历史试验的结果更接近观测值。这一特点在观测资料相对丰富的南北纬50°以内地区更为显著。(2)在年代际试验预测前期, 通过Nudging方法, 利用SODA再分析海洋温度资料对模式进行初始化, 经过前期8～12月的协调后, 模式预测的第1年南北纬50°范围海洋、陆面的平均地表气温接近于观测值(CRUTEM3, HadSST2)。由于模式初值SODA再分析SST资料与HadSST2观测值存在明显的全球大洋系统暖偏差以及模式本身系统偏差的影响, 年代际试验模拟的地表气温在2～7年之内, 从观测SST状态逐渐恢复到模式系统本身状态。在同组Decadal试验中, 陆面和海洋恢复调整的时间长度几乎一致。(3) 从10年平均气候异常在区域尺度上的预报技巧来看, 有、无海洋初始同化对预测结果影响不大, 高预测技巧区主要分布在南半球印度洋中高纬度、热带西太平洋以及热带大西洋区域。(4)SST变化与下垫面热通量密切相关, 在热带和副热带海洋区域, 长波辐射和感热通量是影响10年时间尺度SST变化较大的物理量, 在中高纬度海洋, 洋面温度变化主要受潜热通量的影响相对较大。 相似文献
20.
本文选择2012年8月16~17日降水个例,利用WRFV3.5天气模式模拟研究青藏高原东坡的地形坡度、坡向及覆盖短波辐射效应(Effect of Slope,Aspect and Shading,ESAS)。结果显示,ESAS产生的短波辐射强迫(强迫)空间分布与坡度大小一致,表现为坡度大时强迫大,坡度小时强迫小;朝西坡向为负强迫,坡向朝东为正强迫,正负强迫分别超过20和32W m-2。地形覆盖使得坡度和坡向在青藏高原东坡(高原东坡)上产生的地面短波辐射通量变化(辐射通量变化)整体向东南移入盆地,位移后的辐射通量增减仍然和高原东坡的坡度、坡向分布一致。地表热通量、地表温度在白天的变化和辐射通量变化分布一致,均在四川盆地内有一条高值带,且形状类似高原东坡和盆地的衔接线;EASA对地面各热通量的影响可以延续到夜间,使得夜间地表热通量变化和高值区位置与白天相似,但变化幅度减小。水汽混合比和风场的变化均具有与潜热变化相似的空间形态,在夜间尤其明显。潜热的增加(减小)可能引起风速增减加(减小),并最终导致降水的改变。 相似文献