共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Mehmet Özger 《Ocean Engineering》2010,37(16):1443-1451
Wave heights and periods are the significant inputs for coastal and ocean engineering applications. These applications may require to obtain information about the sea conditions in advance. This study aims to propose a forecasting scheme that enables to make forecasts up to 48 h lead time. The combination of wavelet and fuzzy logic approaches was employed as a forecasting methodology. Wavelet technique was used to separate time series into its spectral bands. Subsequently, these spectral bands were estimated individually by fuzzy logic approach. This combination of techniques is called wavelet fuzzy logic (WFL) approach. In addition to WFL method, fuzzy logic (FL), artificial neural networks (ANN), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods were employed to the same data set for comparison purposes. It is seen that WFL outperforms those methods in all cases. The superiority of the WFL in model performances becomes very clear especially in higher lead times such as 48 h. Significant wave height and average wave period series obtained from buoys located off west coast of US were used to train and test the proposed models. 相似文献
2.
Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models
A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R2 = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters. 相似文献
3.
Potential impacts of 0.5 and 1.0 m of relative sea level rise (RSLR) on hurricane surge and waves in southeast Louisiana are investigated using the numerical storm surge model ADCIRC and the nearshore spectral wave model STWAVE. The models were applied for six hypothetic hurricanes that produce approximately 100 yr water levels in southeastern Louisiana. In areas of maximum surge, the impact of RSLR on surge was generally linear (equal to the RSLR). In wetland or wetland-fronted areas of moderate peak surges (2-3 m), the surge levels were increased by as much as 1-3 m (in addition to the RSLR). The surge increase is as much as double and triple the RSLR over broad areas and as much as five times the RSLR in isolated areas. Waves increase significantly in shallow areas due to the combined increases in water depth due to RSLR and surge increases. Maximum increases in wave height for the modeled storms were 1-1.5 m. Surge propagation over broad, shallow, wetland areas is highly sensitive to RSLR. Wave heights also generally increased for all RSLR cases. These increases were significant (0.5-1.5 m for 1 m RSLR), but less dramatic than the surge increases. 相似文献
4.
Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually. 相似文献
5.
In this paper, first we introduce the wave run-up scale which describes the degree of wave run-up based on observed sea conditions near and on a coastal structure. Then, we introduce a simple method which can be used for daily forecast of wave run-up on a coastal structure. The method derives a multiple linear regression equation between wave run-up scale and offshore wind and wave parameters using long-term photographical observation of wave run-up and offshore wave forecasting model results. The derived regression equation then can be used for forecasting the run-up scale using the offshore wave forecasting model results. To test the implementation of the method, wave run-up scales were observed at four breakwaters in the East Coast of Korea for 9 consecutive months in 2008. The data for the first 6 months were used to derive multiple linear regression equations, which were then validated using the run-up scale data for the remaining 3 months and the corresponding offshore wave forecasting model results. A comparison with an engineering formula for wave run-up is also made. It is found that this method can be used for daily forecast and warning of wave run-up on a coastal structure with reasonable accuracy. 相似文献
6.
Learning from data for wind-wave forecasting 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Along with existing numerical process models describing the wind-wave interaction, the relatively recent development in the area of machine learning make the so-called data-driven models more and more popular. This paper presents a number of data-driven models for wind-wave process at the Caspian Sea. The problem associated with these models is to forecast significant wave heights for several hours ahead using buoy measurements. Models are based on artificial neural network (ANN) and instance-based learning (IBL) .To capture the wind-wave relationship at measurement sites, these models use the existing past time data describing the phenomenon in question. Three feed-forward ANN models have been built for time horizon of 1, 3 and 6 h with different inputs. The relevant inputs are selected by analyzing the average mutual information (AMI). The inputs consist of priori knowledge of wind and significant wave height. The other six models are based on IBL method for the same forecast horizons. Weighted k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) and locally weighted regression (LWR) with Gaussian kernel were used. In IBL-based models, forecast is made directly by combining instances from the training data that are close (in the input space) to the new incoming input vector. These methods are applied to two sets of data at the Caspian Sea. Experiments show that the ANNs yield slightly better agreement with the measured data than IBL. ANNs can also predict extreme wave conditions better than the other existing methods. 相似文献
7.
L. H. Holthuijsen 《Ocean Engineering》1988,15(2)
The potential accuracy of local models is investigated to determine the mean direction of waves from the time history of locally observed significant wave height (or peak frequency) and locally observed wind. This is done by comparing results of such models with observations at a location in the southern North Sea for a period of six weeks. The model results are also compared with results of two synoptic models which require large scale wind information to estimate the local mean wave direction.For significant wave heights larger than 1.5 m the rms-error of the estimated mean wave direction was about 30° for the best performing local model and about 15° for the best performing synoptic model. 相似文献
8.
Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy logic approach 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between wind speed, previous and current wave characteristics. It is expected that such a non-linear relationship includes some uncertainties. A fuzzy inference system employing fuzzy IF–THEN rules has an ability to deal with ill-defined and uncertain systems. Compared with traditional approaches, fuzzy logic is more efficient in linking the multiple inputs to a single output in a non-linear domain. In this paper, a sophisticated intelligent model, based on Takagi–Sugeno (TS) fuzzy modeling principles, was developed to predict the changes in wave characteristics such as significant wave height and zero up-crossing period due to the wind speed. Past measurements of significant wave height values and wind speed variables are used for training the adaptive model and it is then employed to predict the significant wave height amounts for future time intervals such as 1, 3, 6 and 12 h. The verification of the proposed model is achieved through the wave characteristics time series plots and various numerical error criterias. Also the model results were compared with classical Auto Regressive Moving Average with exogenous input (ARMAX) models. For the application of the proposed approach the offshore station located in the Pacific Ocean was used. 相似文献
9.
本文应用一个经验证的全球尺度FVCOM海浪模型，模拟了2012年全球海洋海浪场的分布和演变，分析了海表面风场、海浪场与混合层深度的全球尺度分布及相关性。综合观测资料和模型结果显示，海表面10 m风速、有效波高与混合层深度的全球尺度分布随季节发生显著的变化，并且其分布态势存在明显的相似性。从相关系数的全球分布来看，海表面10 m风速在印度洋低纬度海区（纬度0°~20°）与混合层深度间有较强的相关性，相关系数大于0.5；有效波高与混合层深度间相关系数大于0.5的网格分布在北半球高纬度海区和印度洋北部。谱峰周期与混合层深度间在部分海区存在负相关关系，这些网格主要分布在低纬度海区（纬度0°~30°）。统计结果显示，有效波高、海表面10 m风速和谱峰周期与混合层深度间的平均相关系数分别为0.31、0.25和0.12。综合以上结果表明，有效波高较谱峰周期能更有效地表征波浪能对海洋上层混合的影响；相比于海表面风速，有效波高与混合层深度间存在更强的相关关系，其变化对海洋上层混合有更显著的影响。 相似文献
10.
Turbidity and sediment transport in a muddy sub-estuary 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Sub-estuaries, i.e. tidal creeks and also larger estuaries that branch off the stem of their main estuary, are commonplace in many estuarine systems. Their physical behaviour is affected not only by tributary inflows, winds and tides, but also by the properties and behaviour of their main estuary. Measurements extending over more than an annual cycle are presented for the Tavy Estuary, a sub-estuary of the Tamar Estuary, UK. Generally, waves are small in the Tavy because of the short wind fetch. A several-hour period of up-estuary winds, blowing at speeds of between 7 and 10 m s−1, generates waves with significant wave heights of 0.25 m and a wave periodicity of 1.7 s that are capable of eroding the bed over the shallow, ca. 1.5 m-deep mudflats. Waves also influence sedimentation within and near salt marsh areas. An estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) occurs in the Tavy's main channel, close to the limit of salt intrusion at HW. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations typically are less than 40 mg l−1 at HW, although concentrations can exceed 80 mg l−1 when tides and winds are strong. Flood-tide SPM inputs to the Tavy from the Tamar are greater during high runoff events in the River Tamar and also at spring tides, when the Tamar has a high-concentration ETM. Higher SPM concentrations are experienced on the mudflats following initial inundation. Without wave resuspension, this is followed by a rapid decrease in SPM for most of the tide, indicating that the mudflats are depositional at those times. SPM concentrations on the mudflats again increase sharply prior to uncovering. Peak ebb tidal speeds at 0.15 m above the mudflat bed can exceed 0.26 m s−1 at spring tides and 0.4 m s−1 following high runoff events, which are sufficient to cause resuspension. Time-series measurements of sediment bed levels show strong seasonal variability. Higher and lower freshwater flows are associated with estimated, monthly-mean sediment transport that is directed out of, or into, the upper sub-estuary, respectively. Seasonal sediment transfers between the estuary and its sub-estuary are discussed. 相似文献
11.
A.J.H.M. Reniers M.J. Groenewegen K.C. Ewans S. Masterton G.S. Stelling J. Meek 《Coastal Engineering》2010
The accuracy of nearshore infragravity wave height model predictions has been investigated using a combination of the spectral short wave evolution model SWAN and a linear 1D SurfBeat model (IDSB). Data recorded by a wave rider located approximately 3.5 km from the coast at 18 m water depth have been used to construct the short wave frequency-directional spectra that are subsequently translated to approximately 8 m water depth with the third generation short wave model SWAN. Next the SWAN-computed frequency-directional spectra are used as input for IDSB to compute the infragravity response in the 0.01 Hz–0.05 Hz frequency range, generated by the transformation of the grouped short waves through the surf zone including bound long waves, leaky waves and edge waves at this depth. Comparison of the computed and measured infragravity waves in 8 m water depth shows an average skill of approximately 80%. Using data from a directional buoy located approximately 70 km offshore as input for the SWAN model results in an average infragravity prediction skill of 47%. This difference in skill is in a large part related to the under prediction of the short wave directional spreading by SWAN. Accounting for the spreading mismatch increases the skill to 70%. Directional analyses of the infragravity waves shows that outgoing infragravity wave heights at 8 m depth are generally over predicted during storm conditions suggesting that dissipation mechanisms in addition to bottom friction such as non-linear energy transfer and long wave breaking may be important. Provided that the infragravity wave reflection at the beach is close to unity and tidal water level modulations are modest, a relatively small computational effort allows for the generation of long-term infragravity data sets at intermediate water depths. These data can subsequently be analyzed to establish infragravity wave height design criteria for engineering facilities exposed to the open ocean, such as nearshore tanker offloading terminals at coastal locations. 相似文献
12.
S. Ponce de León 《Ocean Engineering》2010,37(7):603-610
The sheltering effect of the Balearic Islands in the hindcast wave field was studied for typical Mediterranean wave situations of Llevant, Tramuntana and Mestral and for mild conditions such as the Garbí and Ponent winds. For this purpose, a third generation wave model was applied to the Mediterranean Sea and different patterns of the sheltered areas were found for the various representative situations depending on the wind variability and on the magnitude of the wind speed. From the analysis it was concluded that the sheltered zones created during storms generally persist for short periods of time of the order of 6 h, possibly reaching a maximum of 12 h. In contrast with earlier results obtained for swell dominated ocean areas, it was observed that in this area, due to the short fetches the sea states are mainly local wind seas and thus the wave field behind the islands depends on the local wind. 相似文献
13.
海浪直接影响海上活动和航行安全,同时也蕴藏着巨大的可再生能源,对海浪核心参数之一波高预测至关重要。基于2015年7月～2022年6月山东小麦岛(36°N,120.6°E)站点实测的波高数据,利用反向传播神经网络(back-propagation neural network,BPNN)、长短记忆网络(long short-term memory, LSTM)和支持向量机回归(support vector regression, SVR)三种机器学习模型对波高进行预测,并分析了瑞利参数的引入对预测结果的影响。结果显示,模型输入项引入瑞利参数后,对1 h和6 h波高预测提升效果有限,预测值与测试集的相关性提升不超过0.02,均方根误差的降低不超过0.01 m;在12h和24h的预测中,BPNN和LSTM模型预测结果相关性提升0.03～0.07,均方根误差降低0.02～0.03m,而SVR模型预测结果变化不显著。说明瑞利参数有助改善BPNN和LSTM模型中长期海浪预报。此外,特征扰动方法(机器学习中特征重要性的计算方法之一)验证了瑞利参数在波高预测中的重要性,瑞利参数的引入为波高的机器学习预... 相似文献
14.
The experimental investigation of unidirectional random wave slamming on the three-dimensional structure in the splash zone is presented. The experiment is conducted in the marine environment channel in the State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology. The test wave is unidirectional irregular wave. The experiments are carried out with perpendicular random waves (β=0°) and oblique random waves (β=15°, 30°, 45°), the significant wave heights H1/3 ranging from 7.5 to 20 cm with 2.5 cm increment, the peak wave periods Tp ranging from 0.75 to 2.0 s with 0.25 s increment, and the clearance of the model with respect to the significant wave height s/H1/3 ranging from 0.0 to 0.5 with 0.1 increment. The statistical analysis results of different test cases are presented. The statistical distribution characteristics of the perpendicular irregular wave impact pressures are compared with that of the oblique irregular wave on the underside of the structure. The effect of the wave direction β on the wave impact forces on the underside of the structure is determined. The relation between the impact forces and the parameters such as the significant wave height, the relative structure width and the relative clearance of the structure is also discussed. 相似文献
15.
《Applied Ocean Research》2005,27(4-5):235-250
The present study describes an experimental investigation of breaking criteria of deepwater wind waves under strong wind action. In a wind wave flume, waves were generated using different wind speeds and measured at different locations to obtain wave trains of no, intermittent, or frequent breaking. Water particle movement and free surface elevation were measured simultaneously using a PIV system and a wave gauge, respectively. For wind waves, not all the waves measured at a fixed location are breaking waves, and the breaking of a larger wave is not guaranteed. However, the larger the wave height, the larger the probability of breaking. In order to take as many breaking waves as possible for the cases of frequent breaking, we used the waves whose heights were close to the highest one-tenth wave height. The experimental results showed that the geometric or kinematic breaking criteria could not explain the occurrence of breaking of wind waves. On the other hand, the vertical acceleration beneath the wave crest was close to the previously suggested limit value, −0.5g, when frequent breaking of large waves occurred, indicating that the dynamic breaking criterion would be good for discriminating breaking waves under a strong wind action. 相似文献
16.
Akira Masuda Tadao Kusaba Kenji Marubayashi Michiyoshi Ishibashi 《Journal of Oceanography》1999,55(2):289-305
The variability of the sea surface wind and wind waves in the coastal area of the Eastern Tsushima Strait was investigated
based on the hourly data from 1990 to 1997 obtained at a station 2 km off Tsuyazaki, Fukuoka. The annual mean wind speed was
4.84 m s−1, with strong northwesterly monsoon in winter and weak southwesterly wind in summer. Significant wave heights and wave periods
showed similar sinusoidal seasonal cycles around their annual means of 0.608 m and 4.77 s, respectively. The seasonal variability
relative to the annual mean is maximum for wave heights, medium for wind speeds, and minimum for wave periods. Significant
wave heights off Tsuyazaki turned out to be bounded by a criterion, which is proportional to the square of the significant
wave period corresponding to a constant steepness, irrespective of the season or the wind speed. For terms shorter than a
month, the significant wave height and the wave period were found to have the same spectral form as the inshore wind velocity:
white for frequencies less than 0.2 day−1 and proportional to the frequency to the −5/3 power for higher frequencies, where the latter corresponds to the inertial
subrange of turbulence. The spectral levels of wave heights and wave periods in that inertial range were also correlated with those of the inshore wind velocity, though the scatter was large.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
17.
The literature on ocean wave forecasting falls into two categories, physics-based models and statistical methods. Since these two approaches have evolved independently, it is of interest to determine which approach can predict more accurately, and over what time horizons. This paper runs a comparative analysis of a well-known physics-based model for simulating waves near shore, SWAN, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regression and a frequency domain algorithm. Forecasts are run for the significant wave height, over horizons ranging from the current period (i.e., the analysis time) to 15 h. Seven data sets, four from the Pacific Ocean and three from the Gulf of Mexico, are used to evaluate the forecasts. The statistical models do extremely well at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1–5 hour range. The SWAN model is superior at longer horizons. The crossover point, at which the forecast error from the two methods converges, is in the area of 6 h. Based on these results, the choice of statistical versus physics-based models will depend on the uses to which the forecasts will be put. Utilities operating wave farms, which need to forecast at very short horizons, may prefer statistical techniques. Navies or shipping companies interested in oceanic conditions over longer horizons will prefer physics-based models. 相似文献
18.
A ten-year data set for fetch- and depth-limited wave growth 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper presents the key results from a ten-year data set for Lake IJssel and Lake Sloten in The Netherlands, containing information on wind, storm surges and waves, supplemented with SWAN 40.51 wave model results. The wind speeds U10, effective fetches x and water depths d for the data set ranged from 0–24 m s− 1, 0.8–25 km and 1.2–6 m respectively. For locations with non-sloping bottoms, the range in non-dimensional fetch x? ( = gxU10− 2) was about 25–80,000, while the range in dimensionless depth d? ( = g d U10− 2) was about 0.03–1.7. Land–water wind speed differences were much smaller than the roughness differences would suggest. Part of this seems due to thermal stability effects, which even play a role during near-gale force winds. For storm surges, a spectral response analysis showed that Lake IJssel has several resonant peaks at time scales of order 1 h. As for the waves, wave steepnesses and dimensionless wave heights H? ( = gHm0U10− 2) agreed reasonably well with parametric growth curves, although there is no single curve to which the present data fit best for all cases. For strongly depth-limited waves, the extreme values of d? (0.03) and Hm0 / d (0.44) at the 1.7 m deep Lake Sloten were very close to the extremes found in Lake George, Australia. For the 5 m deep Lake IJssel, values of Hm0 / d were higher than the depth-limited asymptotes of parametric wave growth curves. The wave model test cases of this study demonstrated that SWAN underestimates Hm0 for depth-limited waves and that spectral details (enhanced peak, secondary humps) were not well reproduced from Hm0 / d = 0.2–0.3 on. SWAN also underestimated the quick wave response (within 0.3–1 h) to sudden wind increases. For the remaining cases, the new [Van der Westhuysen, A.J., Zijlema, M., and Battjes, J.A., 2007. Nonlinear saturation-based whitecapping dissipation in SWAN for deep and shallow water, Coast. Eng., 54, 151–170] SWAN physics yielded better results than the standard physics of Komen, G.J., Hasselmann, S., Hasselmann, K., 1984. On the existence of a fully developed wind-sea spectrum. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 14, 1271–1285, except for persistent overestimations that were found for short fetches. The present data set contains many interesting cases for detailed model validation and for further studies into the evolution of wind waves in shallow lakes. 相似文献
19.
通过数值试验验证卫星高度计波高数据同化对西北太平洋3 d海浪预报的改进效果。驱动海浪模式的强迫场采用国家海洋环境预报中心基于MM5模式预报的风场,波高数据同化使用的观测数据是Jason-1卫星高度计有效波高。用最优插值数据同化方法获得海浪有效波高的最优估计并重构相应的海浪方向谱,以此为初始场进行为期3 d的数值预报试验。与没有同化的预报进行了比较和分析,结果表明卫星高度计海浪数据同化对0~72 h预报有不同程度的明显改善,改进程度随预报时效的增加而减少。 相似文献
20.
Real-time wave forecasting using genetic programming 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
The forecasting of ocean waves on real-time or online basis is necessary while carrying out any operational activity in the ocean. In order to obtain forecasts that are station-specific a time-series-based approach like stochastic modeling or artificial neural network was attempted by some investigators in the past. This paper presents an application of a relatively new soft computing tool called genetic programming for this purpose. Genetic programming is an extension of genetic algorithm and it is suited to explore dependency between input and output data sets. The wave rider buoy measurements available at two locations in the Gulf of Mexico are analyzed. The forecasts of significant wave heights are made over lead times of 3, 6, 12 and 24 h. The sample size belonged to a period of 15 years and it included an extensive testing period of 5 years. The forecasts made by the approach of genetic programming indicated that it can be regarded as a promising tool for future applications to ocean predictions. 相似文献