共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
2.
风暴潮灾害风险是由风暴潮危险性、承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和防潮减灾能力决定的,其中承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和防潮减灾能力构成了风暴潮灾害的易损性.结合目前国内对风暴潮灾害危险性研究较为深入,而对易损性研究欠缺的现状,以青岛沿海风暴潮为例,建立了风暴潮灾害易损性风险区划模型.模型首先通过风险因子识别建立了风险评价指标体系,然后采用聚类分析将研究区域进行综合分类,再用熵值法、灰色关联分析及模糊综合评价法分别对各地区潮灾风险进行量化,最后应用熵值—灰色—模糊组合方法从主客观角度定性定量进行综合风险区划排名,将青岛九区市划分为4个不同风险等级,揭示了青岛近海地区风暴潮灾害风险的地域差异性,为因地制宜地制定防灾减灾措施与规划提供了科学依据. 相似文献
3.
为提高港口服务质量和促进港口经济发展,文章基于国内外港口气象服务的发展现状,通过降低灾害风险和延长作业时间评估宁波舟山港的港口气象服务效益,并提出定制式港口气象服务的必要性和技术路线。研究结果表明：降低灾害风险可从致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性2个方面分析,其中致灾因子危险性指数总体呈下降趋势,承灾体脆弱性指数随重现期的增大而快速上升;提供针对性港口气象服务后的港口作业时间不断延长,作业时间延长效益每年可达数亿元且会进一步提高;定制式港口气象服务须关注需求引领、专属产品、综合平台和高效机制。 相似文献
4.
5.
针对南海-印度洋海域丰富的海洋资源、重要的战略地位以及该海域的自然灾害风险和海盗活动、恐怖袭击与军事冲突等人为灾害风险,基于风险评估理论从孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性等方面选取评价指标并建立评估模型,利用地理信息系统(GIS)平台得到了该区域的自然灾害风险、人为灾害风险和综合风险区划。结果表明,冬季(1月),综合风险最高的区域为亚丁湾、孟加拉湾湾顶、马六甲海峡附近以及越南东南部近海,其次为南海东北部海域、南沙群岛西部海域、巽他海峡、望加锡海峡、科摩林角附近海域、霍尔木兹海峡及索马里近海;夏季(7月),综合风险最高的区域为亚丁湾、孟加拉湾湾顶及马六甲海峡附近,其次为索马里东北部海域、阿拉伯海中西部、斯里兰卡西南近海、吕宋岛西部近海以及巴士海峡附近。 相似文献
6.
7.
8.
近几十年来,在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,我国近岸河口海域尤其是长江口及邻近海域生态灾害频繁发生,严重影响了海洋生态系统的健康及其服务功能。本研究基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）气候变化风险理论框架,构建了河口浮游植物生态系统的气候变化综合风险评估指标体系,并利用IPCC 第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）地球系统模式数据,分别计算分析了在温室气体低（RCP 2.6）、中等（RCP 4.5）和高（RCP 8.5）浓度排放情景下未来不同时期（2030—2039、2050—2059、2090—2099年）长江口及邻近海域浮游植物生态的致灾因子危害性、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性及其综合风险。结果表明： RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5情景下,到21世纪中期,致灾因子危害性均有明显上升,其中RCP 4.5和8.5情景下,到21世纪末,还将大幅度增加,且以RCP 8.5情景最为显著,而RCP 2.6情景下则相反,有所下降;RCP 2.6情景下,高暴露度区域主要位于长江口附近,不同年代的变化差异较小;RCP 4.5和8.5情景下高暴露度区域明显大于RCP 2.6情景,尤其是后者到21世纪末期扩大至长江口邻近海域;脆弱性总体呈现近岸高远岸低的分布特征,且变化均较小;RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5情景下,综合风险均呈现近岸高远岸低,且有增加的趋势,但以RCP 8.5情景最为明显,并在21世纪末达到最大。 相似文献
9.
目前国内海岸带城市洪水淹没风险领域中较多关注单一致灾因子(风暴潮)导致的淹没,缺乏对导致海岸带洪水发生的其他致灾因子的自然属性和社会属性的综合考量。根据风险的内涵,借鉴国外综合性风险评价理念,将洪水淹没自然机理模型与概念框架模型相结合,选取能表征风险发生概率的自然过程指标以及能表征风险危害性后果的社会经济类指标,构建具有针对性的海岸带型洪水淹没风险评价指标体系,对青岛市洪水淹没风险进行综合评估。研究得出青岛市洪水淹没风险指数值为0.3240,根据我国主要海域自然灾害等级划分(表3),可知其风险等级为3,危险性属于中等水平;确定了青岛市洪水淹没风险的各类致灾体与其影响因素之间的相关性;并得出洪水淹没风险的自然因素和人为可控因素两类关键性控制指标制定短期和长期性的适应策略和行动,充分利用可调节因素,有效加强并提高防范性指标,以期到达最大程度上降低青岛市洪水淹没风险。 相似文献
10.
开展海冰灾害风险评估和区划,有助于指导结冰海区沿岸各级政府制定和优化海冰防灾减灾决策,以最大限度地减轻海冰灾害造成的损失。本研究选取冰厚、密集度及冰期和各类承灾体密度、规模等作为评估指标,将河北省沿海县级行政区所辖海域作为基本评估单元,利用权重分析等方法,对河北省的海冰灾害风险进行综合评估。在此基础上,结合海冰防灾减灾的实际需求对河北省的海冰灾害风险进行空间区域的等级划分,并绘制风险等级分布图。所得结果较为真实地揭示了海冰灾害风险在河北省所辖海域的分布状况,可为河北省的海冰灾害风险管理等提供依据。 相似文献
11.
In this study, we applied the edge-detection method of oil-spill monitoring to extract oil-spill features observed by the ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) images over the coastal waters of Hong Kong and vicinity in northern South China Sea. Two examples in 2007 and 2008 over the coastal waters of the study area show that oil spills can be successfully detected by ASAR images at wind speeds around 4～ 6 m/s independent of wind direction. The study also shows that it could be helpful for evaluating the potential impacts of oil spills on the coastal environment in Hong Kong and vicinity. 相似文献
12.
In many coastal regions, oil spills can be considered as one of the most important and certainly the most noticeable forms of marine pollution. Efficient contingency management responding to oil spills on waters, which aims at minimizing pollution effects on coastal resources, turns out to be critically important. Such a decision making highly depends on the importance attributed to different coastal economic and ecological resources. Economic uses can, in principal, be addressed by standard measures such as value added. However, there is a missing of market in the real world for natural goods. Coastal resources such as waters and beach cannot be directly measured in money terms, which increases the risk of being neglected in a decision making process. This paper evaluates these natural goods of coastal environment in a hypothetical market by employing stated choice experiments. Oil spill management practice in German North Sea is used as an example. Results from a pilot survey show that during a combat process, beach and eider ducks are of key concerns for households. An environmental friendly combat option has to be a minor cost for households. Moreover, households with less children, higher monthly income and a membership of environmental organization are more likely to state that they are willing to pay for combat option to prevent coastal resources from an oil pollution. Despite that choice experiments require knowledge of designing questionnaire and statistical skills to deal with discrete choices and conducting a survey is time consumed, the results have important implications for oil spill contingency management. Overall, such a stated preference method can offer useful information for decision makers to consider coastal resources into a decision making process and can further contribute to finding a cost-effective oil preventive measure, also has a wide application potential in the field of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). 相似文献
13.
The Sea Prince accident was the first VLCC accident in Korea and a shock to the general public and government. Before the accident, any oil-spill management plan, such as National contingency plan (NCP) and regional contingency plans (RCPs), was not available and the resources for oil spills were lacking for the Sea Prince accident. About 5000 tons of oil spilled, polluting large areas of southern coastal waters, damaging the fisheries, including aquaculture. After the Sea Prince accident, Korea's government established various alternatives for dealing with oil spills, such as the NCP, RCPs, Typhoon Refuge Management Plan, and resources for oil-spill response. However, port safety management in emergency situations such as typhoons has not been solved. 相似文献
14.
15.
为加强沿海石化园区海洋环境风险区划的科学管理和决策,降低相关区域的海洋环境综合风险,文章根据海洋环境风险源和污染源排查,海洋敏感区、易受损区分布和环境现状调查以及园区风险管理和应急制度核查等的结果,基于PSR模型,从海洋环境风险指数、海洋环境敏感指数和海洋环境风险防控能力指数3个方面,构建沿海石化园区海洋环境风险区划评估框架;分别选取突发性环境风险和累积性环境风险、自然风险和社会风险以及政府和企业等各项相关指标,制订评估方案;通过确定评估指标权重,计算海洋环境综合风险值,并将风险等级划分为5级。以大连市沿海某石化园区为例进行评估,评估结果表明:该石化园区所在海域总体处于低风险等级,无极高风险和高风险区;在保持现有海洋环境风险防控能力的基础上,通过大力改善区域海洋生态环境,可进一步降低园区海洋环境综合风险。 相似文献
16.
Arthur Wieczorek Dimas Dias-Brito Joo Carlos Carvalho Milanelli 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2007,50(11-12):872-886
This study presents an environmental oil spill sensitivity map of Cardoso Island State Park, located in São Paulo state, Brazil, including some of its surrounding areas. This map was designed following the procedures determined by the Brazilian Federal Environment Organ (Ministry of the Environment), which separates coastal habitats in different littoral sensitivity indexes (LSI) to oil spills. We have also analysed some seasonal variations in morphologic and textural parameters at the local marine beaches that could affect their sensitivity, having found that they are more sensitive during summer due to a wider foreshore zone during these periods. Local most sensitive habitats are estuarine mangroves (LSI 10) and estuarine mud banks (LSI 9). Marine beaches were ranked LSI 3, and littoral rocky shores were subdivided in exposed flat rocky shores (LSI 1), boulder rocky shores (LSI 6) and sheltered rocky shores (LSI 8). Due to the elevated sensitivity of an estuarine system in the area, we considered necessary the installation of an Environmental Emergency Centre and the design of an emergency plan for the region in case of an accident resulting in oil spills within its vicinities. 相似文献
17.
海岸带化工园区化学品泄漏的环境风险问题已经成为威胁我国海洋生态资源的重要因素之一。对海上化学品泄漏的生态环境风险损失进行先期评估,并将价值评估信息纳入到海洋环境管理中,可为海岸带开发以及海岸带管理经济刺激手段的制定提供决策依据。本文选择厦门市海沧化工园区为典型案例区,进行海岸带化工园区化学品泄漏事故的风险生态效应识别与影响预测,评估环境风险的生态损害价值,从而为基于环境风险分析的海洋生态资源生态补偿的研究与实践提供借鉴。 相似文献
18.
《Ocean & Coastal Management》2007,50(1-2):24-34
This study, which was carried out during 1999–2002, deals with the identification of the environmental sensitivity of the Mediterranean coastline of Israel to marine oil spills. It includes GIS sensitivity mapping and an analysis of the environmental vulnerability of Israel's shoreline resources.The study analyses the main sources of risk for maritime accidents in the southeastern Mediterranean and develops scenarios for possible oil spills incidents, including an analysis of the priorities for protection of the various coastal ecosystems, in an event of a large spill. It describes the morphology of the coastline of Israel, as well as the main hydrographic and meteorological patterns that dominate and control the dynamics of the shorelines, and of potential major oil spills. The study also discusses the different ways in which oil spills may affect natural ecosystems and socio-economic resources along the coastline of Israel.The basic research question of the study was how different geomorphic and land-use types of the Mediterranean shoreline would be affected by large quantities of spilled oil washing ashore from the sea. The study aims at determining the relative sensitivity of different types of shoreline and ‘prioritizing’ the different types of shoreline and coastal resources to be protected following a large oil spill. The study also aims at presenting the data collected and analyzed to both the scientific and environmental communities, and to the operational national authorities responsible for oil spill preparedness and response, in a clear and useful way.One of the main conclusions of the study is that generally, the sensitivity of the Israeli Mediterranean coastline to oil spills could be considered moderate, compared with other fragile ecosystems. This is mainly because of the morphology of the sandy beaches and the high exposure of most types of beaches to energetic natural cleanup processes. Still, along the southeastern Mediterranean coastline there are ecosystems, habitats, shoreline types and coastal resources that are sensitive to oil spills. 相似文献
19.
《Marine Policy》1999,23(4-5):289-306
The recent Haven, Braer, Aegean Sea and Sea Empress incidents have highlighted the need for protective measures against the risks posed by the shipping industry to the UK coast. This is particularly the case in the vicinity of environmentally sensitive areas. The principal objectives of this paper are to investigate the state of environmental management of tanker traffic in the UK by putting the geography of shipping into its environmental context. Regional traffic levels, accident rates, oil spills, and their potential consequences upon the environment have been summarised via a risk assessment which also considers coastal sensitivity. An assessment of measures available at international level then sets the scene for a review of marine traffic management schemes in operation around the UK. The state of management and its approaches are also discussed and a number of recommendations put forward during marine conferences in the last welve months are considered. 相似文献
20.
Integrating economy, ecology and uncertainty in an oil-spill DSS: The Prestige accident in Spain, 2002 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Major accidental oil spills still affect sensitive marine areas and shorelines around the world, constituting a challenge for operational as well as strategic contingency management. As a rationale basis for addressing both issues we here propose a Decision Support System (DSS) consisting of a combination of modelling and evaluation methods which in particular assesses various impacts on habitats and local economies. By integrating the state-of-the-art oil spill contingency simulation system OSCAR with wind and current forecasts, environmental GIS data and multi-criteria analysis techniques, the DSS is able to rank different response actions to a chemical or oil spill. In this study, the usefulness of the approach is tested by hindcasting the Prestige accident off the coast of Spain in 2002. In particular, the short- to mid-term economic and ecological consequences of different mitigation measures are estimated. We identified clearly one worst option matching the actual decision taken by the responsible parties and one or two almost equally well performing routes. Two procedures of including uncertainty at various stages of the DSS are tested. The first method averages ensembles of outcomes between each modelling/evaluation stage, while the second one preserves the entire degree of freedom till the final ranking procedure. Results in the Prestige case turned out to be rather insensitive against both ways to account for uncertainties. The robustness as well as clarity of the DSS has the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision making even in politically sensitive situations. Limitations as well as ongoing improvements of the system are highlighted, in particular emphasizing linkages to environmental economics. 相似文献