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1.
GPS掩星资料三维变分同化对台风模式预报的改进试验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文尝试了GPSRO COSMIC资料在中尺度数值模式中的应用,利用COSMIC资料受云和降水影响较小,且有高数据精度、高垂直分辨率等优点,以改善模式初始场,进而提高预报准确度。模式采用中尺度气象模式WRF V3.0.1版本及其三维变分同化系统3DVAR,利用NCEP再分析资料、GTS资料和COSMIC资料对2009年第8号台风"莫拉克"登陆台湾岛前到登陆台湾岛的过程进行了模拟试验,并对温度、露点温度、对流有效位能等要素进行了诊断分析。试验结果表明:该项试验成功将COSMIC资料同化进模式,加深对"莫拉克"热力结构特征的了解,有效改善台风降水和路径预报,其中仅屏东县单点降水预报提高600 mm左右,24 h预报路径误差提高80 km以上。同时对提高台风强度预报起到积极作用。 相似文献
2.
0604号台风"碧利斯"持久不消及造成云南暴雨成因分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用常规观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°6h再分析资料对0604号台风"碧利斯"登陆后持久不消及其造成云南暴雨的成因进行分析.其结果表明:两高间强而宽广的辐合带和西南急流增强使台风低压在陆上连续5d不消,副高、西南急流在低压区形成的最大风速中心位置决定台风低压移动方向.此次云南台风暴雨是在台风减弱低压主导作用下,激发强不稳定能量释放、产生强对流,形成利于垂直运动深厚发展伴有强抽吸作用的暴雨动力结构,孟加拉湾水汽源源不断向云南上空输送,经低层强水汽辐合抬升凝结而造成的.影响云南500hPa低压干位涡涡源中心值越大地面降水越强,850hPa干、湿位涡可提前12h预示台风减弱、移动方向的信息. 相似文献
3.
基于不同背景场条件的雷达资料同化在登陆台风“桑美”中的应用研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文针对2006年登陆我国的超强台风“桑美”,分别采用美国国家环境预报中心的全球预报系统(Global Forecasting System, GFS)再分析资料和日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA)区域客观再分析资料作为背景场,利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)及其三维变分同化系统进行多普勒雷达资料同化和数值模拟试验,考察不同的背景场条件下雷达资料同化对台风初始场、内部结构及其随后确定性预报的影响。结果表明:GFS试验和JMA试验在同化了雷达资料之后分析出的台风700 hPa风场和500 hPa高度场相比其初始场均有所增强,JMA试验在3 h同化窗内的均方根误差和最小海平面气压的改进效果均比GFS试验显著,同时对台风动力和热力结构的改进效果也优于GFS试验;JMA试验对台风降水、路径、强度的预报均优于GFS试验,且能预报出台风前沿的降水,更加接近观测实况。 相似文献
4.
2018年第14号台风“摩羯”对山东造成了大范围暴雨和大风天气,基于WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式及其Hybrid-3DVAR混合同化预报系统,对Hybrid-3DVAR不同集合协方差比例和不同航空气象数据转发（aircraft meteorological data relay,以下简称AMDAR）资料同化时间窗对台风“摩羯”预报的影响进行了数值研究。结果表明：加大集合协方差比例对台风“摩羯”路径预报有较大影响和改进;当全部取来自集合体的流依赖误差协方差时,预报的台风路径最好,降水预报也最接近实况;AMDAR资料同化对于台风路径和降水预报也有正的改进作用,但加大集合协方差比例到100%时对台风路径预报影响更大;不同资料同化时间窗会影响同化的AMDAR资料数量,从而影响台风降水精细化预报;45 min同化时间窗的要素预报误差最小,对台风造成的强降水精细特征预报最接近实况;不同资料同化时间窗主要影响台风降水预报落区分布,对台风路径预报影响相对较小。 相似文献
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6.
《海洋气象学报》2018,(4)
基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其3DVAR(3-Dimentional Variational)资料同化系统,采用36 km、12 km、4 km三层嵌套网格进行逐3 h资料同化和快速更新循环预报,对2011年5月8日鲁中一次局地大暴雨过程进行了资料同化敏感性试验。试验结果表明,地面观测资料同化和快速更新循环对本次降水的预报起到了关键性作用。在快速更新循环预报时不同化地面观测资料,或同化全部观测资料进行冷启动预报,模式均不能预报出山东的降水。同化地面观测资料后,显著改进了模式降水落区预报。地面观测资料同化可以影响到700 hPa高度以上温压湿风要素的变化,从而改变了大气初始场的温湿结构,导致模式预报的700 h Pa附近高空大气湿度和热力不稳定增强,700 hPa以下低层风场更强,850 h Pa鲁中以南风速较无观测资料同化的偏强2～4 m·s-1,低层风场的动力作用触发高空的不稳定大气,降水出现在山东。 相似文献
7.
多普勒雷达资料在近海强台风模拟中的同化试验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用中尺度数值模式(WRF),并同化了多普勒雷达反射率和径向速度资料以及非常规的观测资料,对近几年登陆于浙闽沿海的4例强台风进行了数值模拟。通过高时空分辨率的模拟结果对比分析表明:雷达资料的同化,对近海登陆台风路径和降水模拟以及中尺度降水特征都有进一步改进的效果;模拟较好的揭示了台风近中心螺旋云带中的强中尺度对流系统。通过模拟分析表明,在台风近中心的螺旋云带中,低层有一条强辐合线存在,它与实况多普勒雷达给出的低层平显(PPI)强度回波带有较好的对应关系,也与沿海地区中尺度暴雨系统紧密联系,并由此看到近海海域降水带和强对流区的存在。 相似文献
8.
WRF Hybrid方法同化HY-2A散射计风资料在台风“菲特”预报中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《海洋预报》2016,(1)
选取台风"菲特"(Fitow,201323)临近登陆过程为试验个例,在WRF模式基础上,采用4种不同的初始化方案,对台风"菲特"进行了72 h预报试验,并分析了模式的初始化对预报效果的影响。试验结果表明,对于台风路径的预报,使用集合平均作为初始场进行预报,预报结果相对直接使用GFS资料作为初始场进行预报的结果有明显改善,使用3DVAR同化方法,将HY-2A卫星散射计风场资料同化到集合平均的初始场中,台风路径预报进一步有所改善,而使用Hybrid同化方法将HY-2A卫星散射计风场资料同化到集合平均的初始场中,台风路径进而又有明显改善;但是在台风强度方面的预报,4种初始化方案效果不相上下。 相似文献
9.
基于中尺度数值模式WRF及其三维变分同化系统,自主构建了新的探测仪器GMI(Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager)的同化模块。本文以2014年太平洋台风季中台风“麦德姆”为例,实现了GMI资料在登陆台风中的有效应用。试验结果表明:晴空条件下GMI资料同化能够对模式背景场中的台风位置进行有效修正。与没有同化该资料的控制试验相比,同化GMI微波成像仪资料可以有效改进台风暖心结构的分析,同时使得台风涡旋环流结构增强,并进而提高了对台风路径的预报水平。 相似文献
10.
研究了TRMM/TMI海表降水率资料的四维变分同化在热带气旋(TC)数值模拟中的作用.使用中尺度气象模式MM5设计了若干数值试验模拟了TC Danas(2001)由热带低压初生到台风生成的发展过程.在满足MM5模式动力约束的前提下,将TRMM海表降水率资料直接同化进入较高分辨率(18 km)的模式初始场.结果表明,使用MM5模式的4D-VAR同化系统直接同化TRMM/TMI海表降水率资料是可行的.这种做法提高了TRMM资料的利用率,不仅在模式初始场中加入了更多实测信息,而且避免了两次同化(1DVAR+4DVAR)可能引起的误差.直接同化TRMM资料通过调整气压、温度、湿度等要素初始场,改善了模式对热带气旋结构(如暖心、涡度、散度)的描述和降水的模拟.在此基础上,同化不仅改进了对Danas强度的模拟,而且成功地模拟了热带气旋环境场的演变过程,因而改进了路径的模拟. 相似文献
11.
基于ROMS模式的南海SST与SSH四维变分同化研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
卫星遥感观测获得了大量高分辨率的海面实时信息，包括海面温度（SST）和海面高度（SSH）等，同化进入数值模式可有效提升模拟精度。本文基于ROMS模式与四维变分同化方法（4DVAR），使用AVHRR SST和AVISO SSH数据，开展了南海区域同化实验。为检验同化的效果，分别利用HYCOM再分析资料和Argo温盐实测数据分析了同化结果的海面高度、流场及温盐剖面的精度。对比结果表明，SST和SSH的同化能够改善ROMS的模拟结果:同化后海面高度场能够更为准确地捕捉海洋的中尺度特征，与HYCOM海面高度再分析资料相比，平均绝对偏差和均方根误差分别为0.054 m和0.066 m；与HYCOM 10 m层流场相比，东向与北向流速平均绝对偏差分别为0.12 m/s和0.11 m/s，相比未同化均提升约0.01 m/s；温盐同化结果与Argo温盐实测具有较高的一致性，温度和盐度平均绝对偏差为0.45℃、0.077，均方根误差为0.91℃、0.11，单个的温盐廓线对比说明，同化结果与HYCOM再分析资料精度相当。 相似文献
12.
Assimilation of sea surface temperature in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and its marginal seas using the ensemble Kalman filter 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Gwang-Ho Seo Byoung-Ju Choi Yang-Ki Cho Young Ho Kim Sangil Kim 《Ocean Science Journal》2010,45(4):225-242
Satellite-borne sea surface temperature (SST) data were assimilated with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in a Northwest Pacific Ocean circulation model to examine the effect of data assimilation. The model domain included the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean and its marginal seas, such as the Yellow Sea and East/Japan Sea. The performance of the data assimilation was evaluated by comparing the simulated ocean state with that observed. Spatially averaged root-mean-squared errors in the SST and sea surface height (SSH) decreased by 0.44 °C and 4 cm, respectively, by the assimilation. The results of the numerical experiments substantiated the effectiveness of the SST assimilation via the EnKF for all marginal seas, as well as the Kuroshio region. The benefit of the data assimilation depended on the characteristics of each marginal sea. The variation of the SST in the East/Japan Sea and the Kuroshio extension (KE) region were improved 34% and those in the Yellow Sea 12.5%. The variation of the SSH was improved approximately 36% in the KE region. This large improvement was achieved in the deep-water regions because assimilation of SST data corrected the separation point of the western boundary currents, such as the Kuroshio and the East Korea Warm Current, and the associated horizontal surface currents. The SST assimilation via the EnKF also improved the subsurface temperature profiles. The effectiveness of SST assimilation was seasonally dependent, with the improvement being relatively larger in winter than in summer, which was related to the seasonal variation of the vertical mixing and stratification in the ocean surface layer. 相似文献
13.
An ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation method is applied in the BCC_CSM1.1 to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilations on seasonal forecasts in an idealized twin experiment framework. Pseudo-observations of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface salinity (SSS), temperature and salinity (T/S) profiles were first generated in a free model run. Then, a series of sensitivity tests initialized with predefined bias were conducted for a one-year period; this involved a free run (CTR) and seven assimilation runs. These tests allowed us to check the analysis field accuracy against the “truth”. As expected, data assimilation improved all investigated quantities; the joint assimilation of all variables gave more improved results than assimilating them separately. One-year predictions initialized from the seven runs and CTR were then conducted and compared. The forecasts initialized from joint assimilation of surface data produced comparable SST root mean square errors to that from assimilation of T/S profiles, but the assimilation of T/S profiles is crucial to reduce subsurface deficiencies. The ocean surface currents in the tropics were better predicted when initial conditions produced by assimilating T/S profiles, while surface data assimilation became more important at higher latitudes, particularly near the western boundary currents. The predictions of ocean heat content and mixed layer depth are significantly improved initialized from the joint assimilation of all the variables. Finally, a central Pacific El Ni?o was well predicted from the joint assimilation of surface data, indicating the importance of joint assimilation of SST, SSH, and SSS for ENSO predictions. 相似文献
14.
The subsurface water beneath the summer mixed layer is important to air–sea carbon flux, while its geochemical properties are not frequently observed. A data assimilation method is applied to determine the geochemical fields in the subsurface (i.e., 100 m) from the data collected at the surface in the North Pacific. This method, in the family of the inverse methods, is constructed on a one-dimensional bulk mixed layer model. In addition to temperature and salinity, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity are also considered as model variables, whereas biological productivity is omitted. The geochemical properties increase from the fall to the winter, which is the period simulated by the model, as the mixed layer develops and entrains subsurface water rich in DIC and alkalinity. Consequently, the geochemical fields in the mixed layer must have extremely sharp north–south gradients in the western region of the North Pacific and can be reproduced only by enhancing the north–south gradients in the subsurface. The fields reconstructed by the data assimilation provide useful information about the biogeochemical cycles. It is suggested that the large difference in DIC between the surface and the subsurface in the northwestern region is produced by transporting DIC from the mixed layer to the subsurface in the summer, implying extremely high biological productivity. Furthermore, it is suggested that high DIC in the ambient water is maintained by the upwelling of lower layer water. 相似文献
15.
M. Ikeda 《Journal of Oceanography》1993,49(6):697-718
A sequential updating method for assimilating Geosat altimeter data into an eddyresolving, quasi-geostrophic model is examined using simulated data of mesoscale features taken from a control run solution. The upper-layer streamfunction in the model is updated by the altimeter data on satellite tracks (at 110 km intervals) at times of observations (with 17-day cycles). To evaluate data suitability, the correlation between the data and the assimilation solution just before update is compared with the correlation between the two data with a 1-cycle separation: i.e., predictability is compared with persistence. The assimilation method is tested on mesoscale features such as linear Rossby waves, unstable mesoscale meanders in a jet and dipole eddies over realistic deep ocean topography. The assimilation method is successful for reconstructing the mesoscale features that evolve gradually or extend over more than one track. Assimilation is degraded by quick evolution of smaller scale features; i.e the unstable meanders that have short wavelengths and are not well captured by the altimeter with the low cross-track resolution, and the mesoscale features, whose lower layer component receives effects of bottom topography in the data but is underestimated due to inefficient downward transfer of the surface data in the assimilation. 相似文献
16.
“暖池”表层对大气局地强迫的响应特征 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
利用湍流动能垂直混合模式和ＴＯＧＡ－ＣＯＡＲＥ加强观测期的观测资料,对“暖池”上混合层的垂直混合过程进行数值试验和数值模拟,分析表层温度、盐度的变化特征。结果表明：ＴＫＥ模式可以较好地模拟混层,尤其是表层温度、盐度对大气局地强迫的响应;太阳辐射是热源,感热、潜热通量等会造成“暖池”上混合层的温度降低,“暖池”对大气释放热量;降水有利于“淡水盖”形成和维持,从则使层结稳定,ＳＳＴ升高。但在气温低于海 相似文献
17.
渤海、黄海、东海冬季海流场温度场数值模拟和同化技术 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用NASA高分辨率的卫星遥感资料SST,采用Nudging同化来模拟渤海、黄海、东海的三维温度场,减小用热通量作上边界条件所带来的误差.结果表明,模拟的海流场能较好地反映渤海、黄海、东海的环流特征.数据同化后的温度场优于未经同化的温度场.3个选择站点的同化值与实测值的均方根误差分别为1.307,0.526,0.744,用热通量资料模拟的水温与实测值的均方根误差分别为2.160,0.979,1.330.尽管只同化了海表温度,但数据同化对三维温度场结构都有影响. 相似文献
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19.
《Ocean Modelling》2009,26(3-4):173-188
We present the background, development, and preparation of a state-of-the-art 4D variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an application in the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS). This initial application with a coarse model shows the efficacy of the 4DVAR methodology for use within complex ocean environments, and serves as preparation for deploying an operational, real-time assimilation system onboard the Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines ship Explorer of the Seas. Assimilating satellite sea surface height and temperature observations with in situ data from the ship in 14 day cycles over 2 years from January 2005 through March 2007, reduces the observation-model misfit by over 75%. Using measures of the Loop Current dynamics, we show that the assimilated solution is consistent with observed statistics. 相似文献
20.
4DVAR data assimilation in the Intra-Americas Sea with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
B.S. Powell H.G. Arango A.M. Moore E. Di Lorenzo R.F. Milliff D. Foley 《Ocean Modelling》2008,23(3-4):130-145
We present the background, development, and preparation of a state-of-the-art 4D variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an application in the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS). This initial application with a coarse model shows the efficacy of the 4DVAR methodology for use within complex ocean environments, and serves as preparation for deploying an operational, real-time assimilation system onboard the Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines ship Explorer of the Seas. Assimilating satellite sea surface height and temperature observations with in situ data from the ship in 14 day cycles over 2 years from January 2005 through March 2007, reduces the observation-model misfit by over 75%. Using measures of the Loop Current dynamics, we show that the assimilated solution is consistent with observed statistics. 相似文献