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1.
The energy efficiency of ocean-going vessels can be increased through various operational considerations, such as improved cargo arrangements and weather routing. The first step toward the goal of maximizing the energy efficiency is to analyze how the ship's powering performance changes under different operational settings and weather conditions. However, existing analytical models and empirical methods have limitations in reliably estimating the powering performance of full-scale ships in real operating conditions. In this study, machine learning techniques are employed to estimate the powering performance of a full-scale ship by constructing regression models using the ship's operational data. In order to minimize the risk of overfitting in the regression process, domain knowledge based on physical principles is combined into the regression models. Also, the uncertainty of the estimated performance is evaluated with consideration of the environmental uncertainties. The obtained regression models can be used to predict the ship speed and engine power under different operational settings and weather conditions. 相似文献
2.
The operability of marine operations, that is, the estimation of their weather downtime and duration, is traditionally determined either by means of risk analysis or Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The work presented herein establishes analytically the probability distribution and statistical parameters of the duration of individual activities of a marine project based on the theory of Markov chains. According to the proposed Markov model the distribution of the duration of an activity is associated with certain statistical properties of the return time, that is the period between two successive passages from the non-operable state. Information about individual activities is then combined according to the PNET methodology, as proposed by Ang, A. H. S., Abdelnour, J. & Chaker, A. A., Analysis of activity networks under uncertainty. J. Engng Mech. Div., ASCE, 101 (EM4) (1975) 373–387 which considers the sequence of the execution of the activities, as defined by the operations scenario of the project, in order to establish analytically the probability distribution of the duration of the project.
The statistical analysis distinguishes between activities which do not require a weather window for their execution and those which do. Policies which affect the execution of an activity are incorporated into the analysis by taking into consideration secondary tasks which are performed before or after its temporary suspension. Furthermore, performance efficiency factors are also introduced in order to reflect the influence of the prevailing sea state/vessel responses on the ability of the crew to carry out the activity.
The Markov model is applied for a range of uninterrupted durations to activities which do or do not require a weather window and the results are compared with those from a Monte Carlo simulation. Good agreement is obtained for the mean durations but significant deviation is evident for the second order moments. This behaviour is attributed to the length of the record and also to the distribution of the return times. Agreement between the results of the two models is generally better for activities of low uninterrupted duration which do not require a weather window.
Finally, the combined Markov/PNET methodology is illustrated with an example for a hypothetical project and results are compared with those from a Monte Carlo simulation. Similar conclusions to those mentioned above are drawn. 相似文献
3.
Using a mesoscale ensemble to predict forecast error and perform targeted observation 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Using NCEP short range ensemble forecast（SREF） system,demonstrated two fundamental on-going evolutions in numerical weather prediction（NWP） are through ensemble methodology.One evolution is the shift from traditional single-value deterministic forecast to flow-dependent（not statistical） probabilistic forecast to address forecast uncertainty.Another is from a one-way observation-prediction system shifting to an interactive two-way observation-prediction system to increase predictability of a weather system.In the first part,how ensemble spread from NCEP SREF predicting ensemble-mean forecast error was evaluated over a period of about a month.The result shows that the current capability of predicting forecast error by the 21-member NCEP SREF has reached to a similar or even higher level than that of current state-of-the-art NWP models in predicting precipitation,e.g.,the spatial correlation between ensemble spread and absolute forecast error has reached 0.5 or higher at 87 h（3.5 d） lead time on average for some meteorological variables.This demonstrates that the current operational ensemble system has already had preliminary capability of predicting the forecast error with usable skill,which is a remarkable achievement as of today.Given the good spread-skill relation,the probability derived from the ensemble was also statistically reliable,which is the most important feature a useful probabilistic forecast should have.The second part of this research tested an ensemble-based interactive targeting（E-BIT） method.Unlike other mathematically-calculated objective approaches,this method is subjective or human interactive based on information from an ensemble of forecasts.A numerical simulation study was performed to eight real atmospheric cases with a 10-member,bred vector-based mesoscale ensemble using the NCEP regional spectral model（RSM,a sub-component of NCEP SREF） to prove the concept of this E-BIT method.The method seems to work most effective for basic atmospheric state variables,moderately effective for convective instabilities and least effective for precipitations.Precipitation is a complex result of many factors and,therefore,a more challenging field to be improved by targeted observation. 相似文献
4.
A methodology for the correction of systematic errors in a simplified atmospheric general‐circulation model is proposed. First, a method for estimating initial tendency model errors is developed, based on a 4‐dimensional variational assimilation of a long‐analysed dataset of observations in a simple quasi‐geostrophic baroclinic model. Then, a time variable potential vorticity source term is added as a forcing to the same model, in order to parameterize subgrid‐scale processes and unrepresented physical phenomena. This forcing term consists in a (large‐scale) flow dependent parametrization of the initial tendency model error computed by the variational assimilation. The flow dependency is given by an analogues technique which relies on the analysis dataset. Such empirical driving causes a substantial improvement of the model climatology, reducing its systematic error and improving its high frequency variability. Low‐frequency variability is also more realistic and the model shows a better reproduction of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes. A link between the large‐scale flow and the model error is found only in the Euro‐Atlantic sector, other mechanisms being probably the origin of model error in other areas of the globe. 相似文献
5.
This paper presents a general approach for the development of a ship weather routing algorithm for determining optimal route which is taken here as the minimum-time route. The optimization model is based on a form of Dijkstra's algorithm. The developed algorithm is versatile and is capable of considering nearly all realistic practical constraints that a ship faces during her voyage. The ‘weight’ functions and the routes are determined by considering both involuntary and voluntary speed reduction. The algorithm is investigated using various realistic wave data for the North Indian Ocean region obtained from a 3rd generation WAM model. Illustrative examples of minimum-time sea routes on Arabian Sea and Bay-of-Bengal have been determined and presented to demonstrate the capability of the algorithm in handling many practical constraints within its framework. 相似文献
6.
Conventional weather routing is defined as determining the optimum route for a merchant ship such that distance or duration of the voyage and fuel consumption are minimized. If the purpose of a voyage is offshore transfer, the term “optimum” includes aspects of operational safety such as towing tension and six-degree motion response of tow. This paper presents the development of a weather routing method for determining the optimal route, which is defined here as the route with minimum average towing tension with a restricted time of arrival and significant motion response. A genetic algorithm is applied to solve optimization problems. Optimized routes of this research have an advantage in towing tension and satisfy motion constraints. The result of this study can contribute to safe and effective planning for offshore transport. 相似文献
7.
As a popular solution for mooring an FPSO （Floating Production, Storage and Offloading） permanently in shallow water, the soft yoke mooring system has been widely used in ocean oil production activities in the Bohai Bay of China. In order to simulate the interaction mechanism and conduct dynamic analysis of the soft yoke mooring system, a theoretical model with basic dynamic equations is established. A numerical iteration algorithm based on error estimation is developed to solve the equations and calculate the dynanfic response of the mooring system due to FPSO motions. Validation is conducted by wave basin experimentation. It is shown that the numerical simulation takes only a few iteration times and the final errors are small. Furthermore, the calculated results of both the static and dynamic responses agree well with those ones obtained by the model test. It indicates that the efficiency, the precision, the reliability and the validity of the developed numerical algorithm and program are rather good. It is proposed to develop a real-time monitoring system to further monitor the dynamic performance of the FPSO with a soft yoke mooring system under various real sea environments. 相似文献
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9.
Surface currents measured by high frequency （HF） radar arrays are assimilated into a regional ocean model over Qingdao coastal waters based on Kalman filter method. A series of numerical experiments are per- formed to evaluate the performance of the data assimilation schemes. In order to optimize the analysis pro- cedure in the traditional ensemble Kalman filter （ENKF）, a different analysis scheme called quasiensemble Kaman filter （QENKF） is proposed. The comparisons between the ENKF and the QENKF suggest that both them can improve the simulated error and the spatial structure. The estimations of the background error covariance （BEC） are also assessed by comparing three different methods： Monte Carlo method; Canadian quick covariance （CQC） method and data uncertainty engine （DUE） method. A significant reduction of the root-mean-square （RMS） errors between model results and the observations shows that the CQC method is able to better reproduce the error statistics for this coastal ocean model and the corresponding external forcing. In addition, the sensibility of the data assimilation system to the ensemble size is also analyzed by means of different scales of the ensemble size used in the experiments. It is found that given the balance of the computational cost and the forecasting accuracy, the ensemble size of 50 will be an appropriate choice in the Qingdao coastal waters. 相似文献
10.
Estimation and analysis of the uncertainty introduced by using a numerical model for the investigation and study of any type of flow problem have become common industry practice. Through understanding and evaluation of the uncertainty introduced by a numerical model, the accuracy and applicability of the model itself are evaluated. In this paper, the numerical uncertainty of a CFD-methodology developed to analyse the hydrodynamic performance of a collective and cyclic pitch propeller (CCPP) is estimated and analysed. The CCPP is a novel propulsion and manoeuvring concept for autonomous underwater vehicles, aimed to generate both propulsion and manoeuvring forces through advanced control of the propeller's blade pitch. The numerical uncertainty is established for three performance parameters, the generated propulsive force, the side-force magnitude, and the side-force orientation, by conducting a grid and time-step refinement study over three operational conditions. Additionally, the influence of the oscillatory uncertainty, introduced by the periodic nature of the problem, is investigated although shown to have a minimal effect when properly monitored. Based on a least-squares regression analysis of the refined simulation results, the numerical uncertainty is proven to be dominated by the introduced discretisation errors. In the case of the propulsive and side-force magnitude, the total uncertainty is dictated by the time discretisation uncertainty under bollard pull conditions, while the total uncertainty of the captive cases is mainly a result of the spatial discretisation uncertainty. The total uncertainty in the side-force orientation is observed to be primarily a consequence of the time discretisation uncertainty for all simulated cases. Overall, the total uncertainty for captive cases can be considered satisfactory for all three performance parameters, while further work is needed to reduce the observed uncertainty of the simulations under bollard pull conditions. 相似文献
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12.
The results from an investigation of an analytically based method for determining the performance of echo classifiers are presented. In particular, the problem of classifying echo waveforms reflected from objects that are composed of multiple scatterers is considered. The time delays between the multiple echo returns from the individual scattering centers that characterize an object are investigated as features. A generic stochastic point scatterer model is developed for representing the classes of reflecting objects which are of interest. The model allows for uncertainty in prior knowledge about the exact relative location of the individual component scatterers or uncertainty in the delay measurements. A classifier decision algorithm, in the form of a general optimum Bayesian binary classification decision rule suitable for a large variety of classification problems, is derived for the case when the orientation of the reflecting object is known. The case of unknown aspect angle is addressed through the numerical implementation and analysis of two classifiers. The associated performance for all three classifiers is obtained in terms of the probability of error and tied to standard sonar equation parameters. Example binary classification problems are presented and analyzed and some general observations made. A pragmatic framework is established within which complex echo classification issues can be further examined 相似文献
13.
Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) are typically derived from direct measurements of the sound speed profile (SSP) and they are orthogonal in regard to the statistics of the SSP uncertainty. Viewed from the output end of a particular sonar system, however, the effect of an error in one EOF is usually coupled with the effect of the error in another due to the strongly nonlinear relation between the SSP parameters and the system response. In this paper, a new set of basis functions, orthogonal in regard to sonar performance measure, is developed to characterize SSP perturbations. The performance measure used is the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) for SSP expansion coefficients derived from a full-field random Gaussian signal model; a closed-form, analytical solution is obtained for both the range-independent and adiabatically range-dependent environments. The derived functions make the CRB matrix diagonal, decoupling the errors in the estimation of the expansion coefficients. Compared to the EOFs, the new set of basis functions depends on both the statistics of the sound speed uncertainty and the sound waveguide propagation property; it incorporates the measurement noise as well. The development makes possible the investigation of the relative significance of the individual basis functions in system response; it also provides a novel framework for optimum acoustic parameterization in adaptive rapid environmental assessment. 相似文献
14.
With the accelerated warming of the world, the safety and use of Arctic passages is receiving more attention.Predicting visibility in the Arctic has been a hot topic in recent years because of navigation risks and opening of ice-free northern passages. Numerical weather prediction and statistical prediction are two methods for predicting visibility. As microphysical parameterization schemes for visibility are so sophisticated, visibility prediction using numerical weather prediction models inclu... 相似文献
15.
A method is described for the estimation of geoacoustic model parameters by the inversion of acoustic field data using a nonlinear optimization procedure based on simulated annealing. The cost function used by the algorithm is the Bartlett matched-field processor (MFP), which related the measured acoustic field with replica fields calculated by the SAFARI fast field program. Model parameters are perturbed randomly, and the algorithm searches the multidimensional parameter space of geoacoustic models to determine the parameter set that optimizes the output of the MFP. Convergence is driven by adaptively guiding the search to regions of the parameter space associated with above-average values of the MFP. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated for a vertical line array in a shallow water enviornment where the bottom consists of homogeneous elastic solid layers. Simulated data are used to determine the limits on estimation performance due to error in experimental geometry and to noise contamination. The results indicate that reasonable estimates are obtained for moderate conditions of noise and uncertainty in experimental geometry 相似文献
16.
针对源自经典Stokes边值理论的大地水准面计算模型适用性问题,提出了3种实用化的Stokes积分模型分阶段改化方法,分析讨论了数据截断误差和观测噪声对大地水准面计算结果的影响,设计了改化计算模型的数值检验方案,使用超高阶位模型EGM2008作为数值模拟标准场,对3种改化计算模型进行了数值计算实验和精度检核,同时开展了数据观测噪声影响评估检验,得出了一些有参考和实际应用价值的研究结论。在一定条件下,使用改化Stokes方法计算大地水准面可获得1 cm的内符合度。 相似文献
17.
This paper analyzes the hydrodynamic performance of a planing craft with a fixed hydrofoil in regular waves. Numerical simulations are carried out based on a RANS-VOF solver to study the hydrodynamic performance of the planing craft and the influence of the fixed hydrofoil on its seakeeping. To validate the numerical method, a series of hydrodynamic experiments of a bare planing craft without the hydrofoil were carried out, from which the seakeeping performance of the planing craft was recorded, the numerical method based on overset grid was compared with the experiment and verified reliable. Eight hydrofoil design cases were then studied, whereby, their seakeeping performance in regular wave conditions were predicted through the numerical method which has been verified reliable and compared with each other. Effects of hydrofoil parameters, such as angle of attack and installation height, on the seakeeping performance were investigated. Finally, the suitable installation parameters which can optimize the performance of hydrofoil and reduce the negative influence are verified. The influence of the speed on the effect of the hydrofoil and the flow field around the planing craft are also investigated. 相似文献
18.
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19.
城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性与可预报性 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
主要综述了数据误差、随机误差和模式物理误差所造成的城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性,简要介绍分析预报不确定性的统计方法。并对由内在随机性和外在误差引起的可预报性问题进行了分析讨论 相似文献
20.
This paper describes an effort to develop a predictive tool for the design of a new promising marine transport — the WIG craft. The presented mathematical model of the WIG craft is capable of modeling the aerodynamics of a WIG system including the ground effect, the hydrodynamics of a stepped planing hull with a hydrofoil and also the simulation of motion for the craft. Based on extensive experience using the model, it is shown that the most important and necessary features of WIG aero- and hydrodynamics are taken into account. The results of simulations have been validated through comparison with other theoretical approaches and also with model experiments. The mathematical model is applied to investigate the dynamics of the small manually piloted WIG craft: “Hydrowing VT01”. The numerical study resulted in recommendations allowing the pilot to overcome the pitch-up tendency and also to perform the take-off manoeuvre smoothly. The stability of the WIG with a hydrofoil and also the dynamic properties of anti-collision manoeuvres have been studied and are presented. 相似文献