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1.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province. 相似文献
2.
海上丝绸之路海啸灾害危险分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
海上丝绸之路不仅是商业和贸易的通道， 也是东西方文化友谊的道路。2004年印度洋海啸对丝路沿线的多个沿海国家造成了重大破坏。因此需要对海啸发生规律和危害进行分析， 以确保海上丝绸之路上经济和文化交流的安全。为探索和识别海上丝绸之路上的海啸灾害， 本文给出了历史海啸事件的特征和规律。从震源震级、震源深度和水深等震源参数中发现了一些历史海啸数据背后的有用信息。本文还探讨了不同震级引起海啸的概率问题。分析结果表明：海上丝绸之路上的海啸主要发生在8个主要构造断层， 每个断层都有不同的海啸发生规律。在统计分析的基础上， 本文采用数值模型模拟了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸，计算结果展示了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸灾害程度。本文的研究成果有助于海啸灾害预警， 能够为保证海上丝绸之路贸易交流的安全提供科学参考。 相似文献
3.
基于Okada模型和非线性浅水波模型，结合高精度多层嵌套网格针对我国浙江沿海的温州和台州地区建立了越洋–近海–局部的精细化地震海啸波流实时预警系统，近岸的分辨率为900 m。该预警系统包括了并行化的数值计算模块，基于Python 2D绘图库的计算结果可视化处理模块，以及通过Python语言将所有经过数值计算的图形与动画产品集成在一个网页上的产品集成模块。一旦地震发生，该系统可根据地震的震源参数信息在10 min内完成数值计算、可视化处理，以及产品集成。选取2011年日本东北9.0级地震海啸结合实测数值对该系统进行模拟验证，进一步应用该系统模拟计算了日本南海海槽和琉球海沟潜在极端海啸的影响规律。结果表明，该预警系统可有效地提高地震海啸实时预警的时效性和准确度，为海啸的预警、减灾，以及辅助决策提供科学依据。 相似文献
4.
A numerical model based on the mild-slope equation is applied to reproduce the propagation of small-amplitude transient waves. The model makes use of the Fourier Transform to convert the time-dependent hyperbolic equation into a set of elliptic equations in the frequency domain. The results of two available experimental studies on tsunamis generated by landslides are used to validate the model, which appears to be able of carefully reproducing the effects of the frequency dispersion. An example application of tsunamis propagating around the Stromboli island is also presented to show the applicability of the present approach to real life scenarios. It is finally discussed how this model could be applied as support to a tsunami early warning system. 相似文献
5.
基于线性长波方程和缓变地形近岸波幅格林公式建立了覆盖整个太平洋区域的准实时地震海啸波幅预报系统。系统利用了GPU并行加速技术，可在90 s之内完成太平洋区域32 h的海啸传播计算和中国沿海城市岸段的波幅特征值预报。筛选了自2006年以来的9次发生在太平洋区域，矩震级（Mw）超过8.0且资料丰富的历史地震海啸事件，对预报系统进行了后报检验。结果表明，线性长波模型能够很好的模拟海啸在大洋中的传播过程；格林公式能够较为准确的估算缓变水深和开阔地形条件下的近岸海啸最大波幅，波幅预警准确率可达80%，基本满足海啸预警需求。以2011年日本Mw9.0地震海啸为例，评估了该系统对中国城市岸段的波幅预警能力，结论基本合理。需要注意的是，利用该系统计算对海啸源特别敏感的近场海啸波幅可能产生较大偏差。提出了若要进一步提高定量海啸波幅预警的准确率，可从以下两个方面加强研究和业务实践:一是采用多数据联合反演方法提升海啸源的精度；二是提高格林公式的适用性，或者构建高效的近岸精细化海啸数值预报系统。 相似文献
6.
The catastrophic tsunami of December 26, 2004 in Southeast Asia revealed the necessity of creating tsunami early warning systems
in the regions of the World Ocean where these systems are still absent but the potential hazard of tsunami generation exists.
The Black Sea is one of these regions. We present the general characteristic of the tsunami hazard in the Black-Sea region
and describe the most probable zones of tsunami generation, the specific features of tsunami propagation, and the parameters
of tsunamis according to the data of observations and the results of numerical simulations. We also discuss the possibility
of tsunami early warning on the basis of the operative data provided by the network of hydrometeorological and seismological
observation stations existing in this region.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 57–66, September–October, 2008. 相似文献
7.
The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runnp in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea. 相似文献
8.
越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
简要介绍了地震海啸产生的物理机制、海啸波在大洋中的传播特性以及海啸所具有的超强破坏力可能引发的巨大灾害;概述了全球地震海啸发生的频率和太平洋区域历史海啸的时空分布;整理分析了我国沿海发生海啸的频次和空间分布。针对越洋海啸传播的特点,采用基于波浪追逐原理和自适应网格加密技术的海啸数值模型对1960智利海啸进行了数值模拟,将模拟的结果与历史记录进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性。通过对数值模拟结果的分析,初步讨论了我国沿海地区越洋海啸的危险性,并定量阐述了越洋海啸对我国各海区的影响。 相似文献
9.
A. Hayir B. Seseogullari İ. Kilinc A. Erturk H.K. Cigizoglu M.S. Kabdasli O. Yagci K. Day 《Coastal Engineering》2008
In this paper the tsunamis resulting from a submarine mass failure such as slides and slumps triggered by earthquakes or other environmental effects, which is settled at the bottom of the north eastern Sea of Marmara are examined in one sample region. As the solution method, one hybrid method is developed. The main objective of this method is to combine an analytical solution presenting near-field tsunami amplitudes above the submarine mass failure with a numerical solution indicating the tsunami amplitudes in the coastal regions. For this purpose, one common linear boundary between analytical and numerical solution domains is defined. Movements of Submarine Mass Failures (SMF) are modeled using one simple kinematics source model and the amplitudes of the tsunamis at the region that are closer to the landslide are computed by using the analytical method. SMF is modeled approximately from the bottom geometry, and an average depth is used. Scenarios of SMF are established depending on the velocities and thicknesses of the failure, and near-field tsunami amplitudes are obtained in the open sea during the source time. After the source times, the solutions are found in the numerical region using TELEMAC-2D software system with the mentioned boundary above. In this boundary, the output of the analytical solutions is taken as the boundary conditions or the disturbances for the numerical method. With these disturbances, the numerical method is performed and the amplitudes are calculated in the coastal area. The generation, propagation and coastal amplifications of the tsunamis are illustrated at some certain points and regions both in the open sea and near the coast line. The results have been visualized and discussed. 相似文献
10.
马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计Mw 7.5、Mw 8.1和Mw 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, Mw 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; Mw 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; Mw 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构... 相似文献
11.
The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low. 相似文献
12.
海啸是自然灾害中对人类生命财产安全有严重威胁的灾难之一。随着全球气候变化和全球化贸易日益增强,越来越多的人口和经济暴露于海啸灾害。历史海啸灾害的时空分异分析可以帮助我们认识海啸灾害的演变规律,为灾害预警、灾害防控等提供有益参考。本文通过提取具有完整性和同质性的数据（爬高高度（RH））进行全球海啸的时空分异规律研究,结果表明:（1）对于0.1 m≤RH<0.5 m、0.5 m≤RH<1 m、1 m≤RH<5 m、5 m≤RH<10 m、10 m≤RH<20 m和20 m≤RH的间隔,海啸目录分别自1963年、1940年、1950年、1946年、1922年和1885年以来可以被认为是完整的;（2）全球海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,大约每年会多观测到7次波浪爬高事件。在0.1 m≤RH<5 m区间内,海啸发生呈现一定的周期性。当RH大于5 m时,表现出明显的增加趋势;（3）西北太平洋区域、南太平洋区域、东南太平洋区域、印度洋区域海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,而在北美区域则呈减少趋势,东北大西洋区域无显著变化;（4）除北美区域外,其他区域的海啸发生遵循一定的自组织临界行为,相比来说,东北大西洋区域更容易发生小的海啸事件,而西北太平洋区域和印度洋区域更容易发生各种强度的海啸事件。 相似文献
13.
本文利用数值模拟技术重现了1707年宝永地震海啸的传播过程,定量分析了我国东海沿岸海啸时空分布特征。计算结果表明,地震发生2.5小时后海啸波传至东海陆架,震后6小时浙江沿海地区遭到海啸的袭击,沿岸最大海啸波高为0.8米。通过海啸波在东海大陆架传播时海底地形与波幅的关系,研究分析了东海陆架缓变地形下海啸放大效应,为及时判断沿海可能的海啸强度和受灾程度提供了便捷的估算方法。此外,本文还评估了南海海槽发生极端地震时,中国东海沿岸的海啸危险性,为东海区域针对日本南海海槽进行海啸预警和减灾评估提供定量科学的参考。 相似文献
14.
基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。 相似文献
15.
Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation. 相似文献
16.
V. K. Gusiakov 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(5):435-444
We consider the problems of assessing tsunami danger for sea coasts taking into account the risk of the strongest tsunamis of seismic origin. We identify a class of particularly dangerous transoceanic events characterized by extremely high runups (up to 40–50 m) at extended coastal areas (up to 500–1000 km). In most cases these transoceanic tsunamis are caused by underwater mega-earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or more occurring with a period between 200–300 and 1000–1200 years in some areas of subduction zones. The possibility of these earthquakes in subduction zones directly threatening a given coast should be taken into account in creating maps of tsunami zoning of any scale. 相似文献
17.
To plan for proper mitigation measures, one should have an advanced knowledge of the phenomenon of tsunami propagation from the deep ocean to coastal waters. There are a few methods to predict tsunamis in the ocean waters; one method is the effective use of data buoy measurements. Although data buoys have been used along the Indian waters there has been a tremendous growth in the number of buoy deployment recently. Under the National Data Buoy Programme (NDBP) of India, the 2.2 m diameter discus data buoys were deployed along the east and west coasts of India for measuring meteorological and ocean parameters. It would be advantageous if these buoys could be efficiently used to measure rare events such as tsunamis. Understanding the dynamic behavior of the buoy is of prime importance if a tsunami warning system is to be successful. This may be accomplished through experimental or numerical studies. A comprehensive experimental study has been conducted to understand the dynamic behavior of a wave rider buoy exposed to a variety of waves. It is common that tsunami waves are represented in terms of shallow water waves, namely solitary and cnoidal waves. Hence, in the present study, the discus type data buoy is scale modeled and tested under the action of solitary and cnoidal waves in the laboratory. The time histories of wave elevations, as well as heave and pitch motions of the buoy model, were analyzed through a spectral approach as well as through wavelet transformations. The wavelet approach gives more detailed insight into the spectral characteristics of the buoy motion in the time scale. The harmonic analyses were performed for the cnoidal wave elevations and subsequent motion characteristics that give an insight into the energy variations. The details of the model, instrumentation, testing conditions and the results are presented in this paper. 相似文献
18.
T. S. Murty 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1):73-102
The dynamics of tsunamis can be divided, for convenience, into three parts: tsunami generation, tsunami propagation, and the coastal problems. Out of these three, the problem of tsunami propagation is probably better understood than the other two. One of the main hindrances to the quantitative prediction of tsunami amplitudes at various coastal locations is a lack of detailed knowledge about the deep water signature of a tsunami. Here, the present understanding of this problem is discussed. 相似文献
19.
数值模拟作为海啸预报的主要研究方法在海啸预警中起着关键作用。本文采用Godunov格式的有限体积方法,使用MUSCL-Hancock格式,并利用HLLC Riemann近似求解器计算单元界面上的流体通量,建立了球坐标系下二阶精度的海啸数值模型。模型所基于的全和谐型浅水方程保证了数值的稳定性,而地形重构方法实现了干湿边界的精准模拟。本文模拟了2015年9月16日智利Mw8.3级地震海啸,通过与智利近岸14个测站和环太平洋20个DART浮标实测数据比较,验证了模型对实际越洋海啸模拟预报的能力。 相似文献
20.
海啸波传播的线性和非线性特征及近海陆架效应影响的数值研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
浅水方程被广泛应用于海啸预警报业务及研究,而针对线性浅水方程与非线性浅水方程在不同海区水深地形条件下的适用范围、计算效率问题是海啸研究人员急需了解的。本文应用基于浅水方程的海啸数值预报模型就海啸波在南海、东海传播的线性、非线性特征以及陆架对其传播之影响进行了数值分析研究。海啸波在深水的传播表征为强线性特征,此时线性系统对海啸波幅的模拟计算具有较高的精度和效率,而弱的非线性特征及弱的色散特征对海啸波幅的预报影响甚微,可以忽略不计。海啸波传播至浅水大陆架后受海底坡度变化、海底粗糙度等因素影响,波动的非线性效应迅速传播、积累,与线性浅水方程计算的海啸波相比表现出较大差异,主要表现为:在南海区,水深小于100m时,海啸波首波以后的系列波动非线性特征比较明显,两者波幅差别较大,但首波波幅的区别不大,因此对于该区域在不考虑海啸爬高的情况下,应用线性系统计算得到的海啸波幅也可满足海啸预警报的要求;在东海区由于陆架影响,海啸波非线性特征明显增强,水深小于100m区域,首波及其后系列波波幅均差异较大,故在该区域必须考虑海啸波非线性作用。本文就底摩擦项对海啸波首波波幅的影响进行了数值对比分析,结果表明:底摩擦作用对海啸波首波波幅影响仅作用于小于100m水深。最后,该文通过敏感性试验,初步分析了陆架宽度及陆架边缘深度对海啸波波幅的影响,得出海啸波经陆架传播共振、变形后,海啸波幅的放大或减小与陆架的宽度及陆架边缘水深有关。 相似文献