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1.
影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟。本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险。通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发海啸过程的模拟。该方法将数量庞大的地震海啸情景转化为有限的单位源水位扰动的传播计算,利用单位扰动源的传播演进数据库,计算目标位置的水位波动过程,可以很大程度上降低大规模情景模拟的计算负担。基于大规模情景模拟,结合各情景出现的概率,客观地给出了南海主要岛礁的海啸波高重现期,为海岛防灾减灾提供参考。研究结果表明,大多数目标岛礁处百年一遇的海啸波高不超过0.4 m。南海内不同位置处的海啸风险有较大差异,东沙群岛附近百年一遇的海啸波高超过0.6 m,而西沙的永乐群岛和南沙群岛的海啸波高显著低于其他区域。 相似文献
2.
A. B. Rabinovich 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(5):445-458
Deep-sea tsunami measurements play a major role in understanding the physics of tsunami wave generation and propagation, and in the creation of an effective tsunami warning system. The paper provides an overview of the history of tsunami recording in the open ocean from the beginning (about 50 years ago) to the present day. It describes modern tsunami monitoring systems, including the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART), innovative Japanese bottom cable projects, and the NEPTUNE-Canada geophysical bottom observatory. The specific peculiarities of seafloor longwave observations in the deep ocean are discussed and compared with those recorded in coastal regions. Tsunami detection in bottom presure observations is exemplified based on analysis of distant (22000 km) records of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the northeastern Pacific. 相似文献
3.
《中国海洋工程》2016,(1)
At 13:46 on March 11, 2011(Beijing time), an earthquake of Mw=9.0 occurred in Japan. By comparing the tsunami data from Guanhekou marine station with other tsunami wave observation gathered from southeast coastal area of China, it was evident that, only in Guanhekou, the position of the maximum wave height appeared in the middle part rather than in the front of the tsunami wave train. A numerical model of tsunami propagation based on 2-D nonlinear shallow water equations was built to study the impact range and main causes of the special tsunami waveform discovered in Jiangsu coastal area. The results showed that nearly three-quarters of the Jiangsu coastal area, mainly comprised the part north of the radial sand ridges, reached its maximum tsunami wave height in the middle part of the wave train. The main cause of the special waveform was the special underwater topography condition of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea area, which influenced the tsunami propagation and waveform significantly. Although land boundary reflection brought an effect on the position of the maximum wave height to a certain extent, as the limits of the incident waveform and distances between the observation points and shore, it was not the dominant influence factor of the special waveform. Coriolis force's impact on the tsunami waves was so weak that it was not the main cause for the special phenomenon in Jiangsu coastal area. The study reminds us that the most destructive wave might not appear in the first one in tsunami wave train. 相似文献
4.
By measuring the maximum water level of the traces attained by the Japan Sea Tsunami on 26 May 1983, we obtained the distribution along the west coast of the northeast Japan. The level reaches a maximum at the coast eastward of the epicenter and decreases with the relationship 8.6e
–0.017x
(m) with distancex (km) measured from the coast nearest to the epicenter. A small increase of levels was observed at coasts to the south of the tsunami source having distance larger than 200 km. With the aid of tide gauge records we revealed an excitation of edge wave which brought about the small increase of levels at the southern coast. In comparison with the decrease with distance obtained on the coasts of the main islands of Japan, some noticeable peaks were observed at several small islands. It is suggested that the reason why a short period component is predominant for the initial wave motion of tsunami is that the source region has depth of 3, 000 meters. The feature of wave period is discussed in comparison with that of the 1964 Niigata Tsunami. 相似文献
5.
E. A. Kulikov I. V. Fine O. I. Yakovenko 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(5):498-507
The March 11, 2011, megaquake caused a catastrophic tsunami recorded throughout the Pacific. This paper presents an analysis of the sea-level records obtained from deep-water tsunami meters (DART and NEPTUNE). To evaluate the effect of the sea-level oscillations’ decay, a statistical analysis of observations and numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation have been conducted. The main goal is to uncover physical mechanisms of the tsunami wave field formation and evolution at scales up to tens of thousands of kilometers in space and a few days in time. It is shown that the tsunami lifetime is related to the wave-energy diffusion and dissipation processes. The decay time of the variance of the tsunami-generated level oscillations is about 1 day. Multiple reflections and scattering by irregularities of the bottom topography make the field of the secondary tsunami waves stochastic and incoherent: the distribution of the wave energy in the ocean reaches a statistical equilibrium in accordance with the Rayleigh-Jeans law of equipartition of the wave energy per degree of freedom. After the tsunami front has passed, the secondary-wave energy density turns out to be inversely proportional to the water depth. 相似文献
6.
This study was conducted to determine the stability of a quay wall under the combined action of an earthquake and tsunami. Adopting the limit equilibrium method, the stability of the quay wall was assessed for both the sliding and overturning modes under passive and active conditions. The variation in the stability of the quay wall was determined by parametric studies, including those for the tsunami wave height, seismic acceleration coefficient, internal friction angle of soil, wall friction angle, and pore water pressure ratio. The stability of the wall was also compared with the case of no earthquake and tsunami forces. When the earthquake and tsunami were considered simultaneously, the stability of the wall under the passive condition decreased significantly. The critical mode of the quay wall under the earthquake and tsunami forces was found to be that of the overturning mode. In the active condition, the safety factors for sliding and overturning increased, because the tsunami acted as a resisting force. However, it should be noted that, if a tsunami wave spills over the quay wall and then flows backward to the wall active condition, the tsunami no longer acts as a resisting force. 相似文献
7.
浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。 相似文献
8.
9.
Tsunamis propagating in the open ocean have associated horizontal particle velocities that do not change with depth — yet the limiting water depth where a tsunami of given characteristics will initiate sediment motion remains unknown. Based upon linear wave theory and a parametrization of the Shields curve, equations are derived and solved, using an iterative scheme, to address the topic of grain movement by tsunami waves as a function of water depth and wave amplitude. The focus is on waves in deep water where tsunami waves behave linearly and on non-cohesive sediment grains. Furthermore, the question is addressed of which grain sizes are picked up on a sloping beach as the wave shoals. According to the results, even the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004 was incapable of moving fine sand in water deeper than 985 m in the Bay of Bengal and 335 m in the Indian and Pacific oceans. The results suggest that tectonic tsunamis of size equal to or smaller than the Boxing Day tsunami cannot initiate motion of deep-water cohesionless sediments that can be correlated on an oceanic basin-wide scale. 相似文献
10.
On September 16, 2015, an earthquake with magnitude of M_w 8.3 occurred 46 km offshore from Illapel, Chile,generating a 4.4-m local tsunami measured at Coquimbo. In this study, the characteristics of tsunami are presented by a combination of analysis of observations and numerical simulation based on sources of USGS and NOAA. The records of 16 DART buoys in deep water, ten tidal gauges along coasts of near-field, and ten coastal gauges in the far-field are studied by applying Fourier analyses. The numerical simulation based on nonlinear shallow water equations and nested grids is carried out to provide overall tsunami propagation scenarios, and the results match well with the observations in deep water and but not well in coasts closed to the epicenter. Due to the short distance to the epicenter and the shelf resonance of southern Peru and Chile, the maximum amplitude ranged from 0.1 m to 2 m, except for Coquimbo. In deep water, the maximum amplitude of buoys decayed from9.8 cm to 0.8 cm, suggesting a centimeter-scale Pacific-wide tsunami, while the governing period was 13–17 min and 32 min. Whereas in the far-field coastal region, the tsunami wave amplified to be around 0.2 m to 0.8 m,mostly as a result of run-up effect and resonance from coast reflection. Although the tsunami was relatively moderate in deep water, it still produced non-negligible tsunami hazards in local region and the coasts of farfield. 相似文献
11.
12.
Shigehisa Nakamura 《Marine Geodesy》2005,28(4):305-312
A note is presented on tsunami bore front. This tsunami bore front is an old dynamical problem but also a new problem to be understood. The tsunami event on 2004 December 26 has raised this is an urgent problem. The author introduces here a model in order to see a hydrodynamical specific property of the tsunami bore front. This modeling gives us a new understanding about what mechanics is for the interested tsunami bore front, especially, around a coastal zone. This work adds a new understanding about mechanics of water motions as the tsunamis generated by the earthquake undersea at a distant area from the coast. The model in this work points out a specific transitional pattern as a function of time and space of tsunami bore front. This modeling gives what is essential at considering tsunami bore front. 相似文献
13.
Shigehisa Nakamura 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(4):305-312
A note is presented on tsunami bore front. This tsunami bore front is an old dynamical problem but also a new problem to be understood. The tsunami event on 2004 December 26 has raised this is an urgent problem. The author introduces here a model in order to see a hydrodynamical specific property of the tsunami bore front. This modeling gives us a new understanding about what mechanics is for the interested tsunami bore front, especially, around a coastal zone. This work adds a new understanding about mechanics of water motions as the tsunamis generated by the earthquake undersea at a distant area from the coast. The model in this work points out a specific transitional pattern as a function of time and space of tsunami bore front. This modeling gives what is essential at considering tsunami bore front. 相似文献
14.
Peitao Wang Zhiyuan Ren Lining Sun Jingming Hou Zongchen Wang Ye Yuan Fujiang Yu 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(11):11-30
The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase (LNP) were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel, Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations. The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min (approximately 1.7％ of the total travel time) relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami. The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time. It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise, but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean. We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min, which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source. Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40％, with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude. We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model, which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility, self-attraction and loading (SAL) of the earth, and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms. We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP, and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event. The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model. Taking all of these effects into consideration, our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms. We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP, which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently. The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to <8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished. The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78％ of the travel time delay correction, with seawater density stratification, SAL, and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39％, 21％, and 18％, respectively. The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event. In contrast, the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed, whereas the earth's elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations. This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival, and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami. These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies. 相似文献
15.
Abstract Joint probabilities of runup height due to astronomical tides and tsunamis are calculated for five bays on the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. Runup heights equaled or exceeded on the average of once per 100 years, and once per 200 years, for those bays, are evaluated. Calculations are based on wave height probabilities obtained from sets of harmonic constituents and tsunami heights recorded during the last 28 years at tidal stations on each location. Extension of potential tsunami terrestrial flooding for populated coastal zones around those bays can be determined from the previous results. One case is illustrated showing endangered features in the hazardous zones, and recommendations to prevent casualties and property damages are given. 相似文献
16.
N. G. Razzhigaeva L. A. Ganzei T. A. Grebennikova A. A. Kharlamov A. Ya. Il’ev V. M. Kaistrenko 《Oceanology》2007,47(4):579-587
This paper describes the results of the grain-size and mineralogical studies of the deposits of the tsunami of 1994 on Shikotan, Tanfil’ev, and Kunashir islands. The studies were carried out within the portions of the coast with different configurations, geomorphologic structures, lithodynamical environments, and character of the tsunami manifestation. The composition of the tsunami deposits is shown to be controlled mainly by erosion-accumulative processes during the tsunami events and is in many respects inherited from the matter sources. The tsunami deposits contain marine diatom species, whose richest assemblages were found within the areas where the material from the underwater coastal slope was redeposited. The data concerning the deposits of earlier historical tsunamis encountered in the same cross sections are discussed too. Their examination points to a similar development of the erosional-accumulative processes during tsunami events with the same intensity and an entrainment of the matter from the same sources. 相似文献
17.
Tsunami run-up height is a significant parameter for dimemsions of coastal structures.In the present study,tsunami run-up heights are estimated by three different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models,i.e.Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP),Radial Basis Functions (RBF) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN).As the input for the ANN configuration,the wave height (H) values are employed.It is shown that the tsunami run-up height values are closely approximated with all of the applied ANN methods.The ANN estimations are slightly superior to those of the empirical equation.It can he seen that the ANN applications are especially significant in the absence of adequate number of laboratory experiments.The restdts also prove that the available experiment data set can he extended with ANN simulations.This may be helpful to decrease the burden of the experimental studies and to supply results for comparisons. 相似文献
18.
深圳海域潮汐海啸波耦合数值研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
以COMCOT海啸模式和TPXO7.1全球潮汐模式为基础,采用三层嵌套网格,建立了南海海啸与潮汐耦合计算模型,分析深圳海域海啸和潮汐相互作用。潮汐计算结果与实测数据吻合较好,高、低潮位平均误差小于15 cm,20 cm;在潮汐验证的基础上,以马尼拉海沟潜在地震海啸源为案例,进行8.0,9.0级地震海啸与潮汐耦合情景模拟计算,计算结果表明,9级地震海啸在深圳海域外海波高为140~150 cm,如先行波为正波发生在高潮时将产生异常高潮位,负波发生在低潮时将产生异常低潮位,线性叠加计算结果偏大,在25.0 cm之内,到达时间差异小于6 min。 相似文献
19.
本文基于TELEMAC-2D模型建立太平洋区域海啸传播模型,模拟2011年日本“3·11”海啸事件下海啸波的传播。使用实测数据对该模型进行验证,在模型验证良好的基础上分析日本“3·11”海啸事件对乐清湾的影响。通过频谱分析得到“3·11”海啸激发的乐清湾内240、180和103 min这3个主导模态的幅值及其相位。通过白噪声实验对乐清湾的固有共振特征进行估算,进一步支持了乐清湾在上述3个模态发生共振这一结论。白噪声实验还表明,海啸等海洋灾害发生时会在乐清湾湾顶及湾口处产生较大的增水,该结论对乐清湾内海洋灾害风险防范具有指导意义。 相似文献
20.
海啸波对近岸岛礁影响的数值模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于Okada有限断层模型和非线性浅水波方程,结合高精度嵌套网格建立了越洋（中国近海）-局部-近岸岛礁的海啸生成与传播的数值模型。以三亚凤凰岛为例,首先针对2011日本地震海啸,模拟分析了海啸波沿中国沿海大陆架的传播特征及对凤凰岛的影响规律。在取得验证结果的基础上,进一步讨论了中国近海的马尼拉海沟和琉球海沟的潜在海啸源,以及环太平洋的21个潜在特大越洋海啸对凤凰岛的影响特征。依据海啸波在抵达凤凰岛的波浪特征,结合傅里叶频谱分析方法,探索了近岸岛礁对海啸波的放大效应。结果表明,中国近海一般震级的海啸和特大越洋海啸对凤凰岛存在一定影响,最大波幅接近1 m,传播时间从3 h到27 h不等。受三亚东南半岛的影响,琉球海沟激发的海啸和越洋海啸在凤凰岛的放大效应相对于马尼拉海沟较小,其频率集中在0.8×10-4~2×10-4 Hz。马尼拉海沟产生的海啸波在凤凰岛产生了较为显著的放大效应,对于凤凰岛是值得关注的高风险海啸源。 相似文献