共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
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MASNUM海浪数值模式业务化预报与检验 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
介绍了MASNUM(Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海浪数值预报系统,并利用全球和西北太平洋的Jason-1卫星数据和NDBC浮标数据中的海浪波高观测,对该预报系统进行了自2007年8月1日-2007年12月31日5个月的24,48和72 h预报结果的比较检验.模式校验结果表明,有效波高预报与观测的绝均差在0.5 m左右,从夏季到冬季,预报精度不断提高,与风场冬季预报精度较高吻合. 相似文献
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基于背景误差分析中的观测法,利用Jason-1卫星高度计沿轨有效波高数据并结合Wave Watch Ⅲ海浪模式预报结果,进行北印度洋海域海浪背景误差分析,得到海浪场背景误差方差和各向同性假设下背景误差相关长度的时空分布特征。按经验函数拟合该海域有效波高背景误差协方差时总残差平方和最小的原则给出了更为适用于该海域的描述公式。在上述工作基础上,采用最优插值同化方法将Jason-1和Jason-2卫星高度计有效波高数据连续同化到海浪模式Wave Watch Ⅲ,按业务化标准对2013年1月北印度洋海域的海浪场进行了同化预报试验,经浮标数据检验发现同化可使海浪24 h预报得到明显改进。 相似文献
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为检验南海海浪业务化数值预报系统的预报效果,利用2010年和2011年3-11月的观测资料,通过计算预报值和观测值的绝对误差、相对误差等统计参数和线性回归分析对南海海浪业务化数值预报系统进行检验.统计结果显示有效波高和平均周期的预报误差24 h＜48 h＜72 h,有效波高的24 h、48 h、72 h预报平均绝对误差小于0.5 m,平均周期的24 h、48 h、72 h预报平均绝对误差小于0.8 s;预报误差有明显的季节变化,10月和11月的预报误差显著小于其它各月;回归分析结果显示预报值与观测值存在中度高度线性相关关系,随着预报时效的增长相关度逐渐递减,预报值较观测值偏大.总体来说,该系统的预报误差在可接受的范围之内,满足业务化预报的要求,但与欧洲气象中心等发达国家的预报系统比较来看,该系统还存在较大差距. 相似文献
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针对有效波高资料提出一种海浪谱分解与重构的资料同化方案:利用历史时段内的有效波高观测资料和模式计算波高场,采用最优插值方法得到分析波高场;在WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ模式的波浪能量密度谱和有效波高分析值之间引入一个变异系数矩阵,描述模式的误差,以此为状态向量构建卡尔曼滤波系统,对分解过的海浪谱进行修正和重构,得到同化后的海浪谱初始场。利用美国阿拉斯加湾北部海域的7个浮标站进行同化和72 h预报试验,对连续1个月的预报结果进行统计表明:采用该同化方案后24 h预报结果的有效波高均方根误差比未同化的结果降低了0.13 m;同化方案对预报效果的影响可持续36 h左右,随着预报时效延长,同化的效果减弱。 相似文献
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基于系统构建工作[1],开展北印度洋风浪流数值预报系统后报和准业务化预报,并利用2013年9月—2014年3月共6个月的资料对预报结果进行了统计检验。结果显示北印度洋风浪流数值预报业务运行稳定可靠,大气模式(WRF)72 h预报的500 hPa位势高度距平相关系数达到89%,海浪模式(SWAN)的72 h有效波高预报的相对误差低于20%,海流模式(ROMS)的72 h海表温度预报的均方根误差在0.5℃左右;同时对2013年10月期间孟加拉湾的超级气旋风暴"PHAILIN"的预报结果进行了分析。该风、浪、流预报系统能够较好地预报"PHAILIN"的移动路径、最低气压及相应的海浪和海流过程。该系统的试运行和检验分析结果,对建立新一代海洋环境数值预报系统具有一定借鉴意义。 相似文献
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数值模式与统计模型相耦合的近岸海浪预报方法 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
针对数值模式和统计模型预报近岸海浪存在的局限性,构建了数值模式和统计模型相耦合的近岸海浪预报框架,在模式计算格点和近岸预报目标点之间定义一个海浪能量密度谱传递系数,通过经验正交函数分解和卡尔曼滤波方法建立传递系数的统计预报模型并与数值模式进行耦合。经过对近岸波浪观测站1a的预报试验表明:该方法能够提高近岸海浪有效波高预报精度,有效波高的均方根误差降低了约0.16m,平均相对误差降低约9%。进一步试验和分析发现,该方法的预报有效时间小于24h,将海浪能量密度谱经过分解后得到的基本模态反映了近岸波侯的主要特征,海浪能量密度谱传递系数的变化体现了波侯的季节变化特点。 相似文献
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静态集合样本的构造及其在全球海浪滤波同化中的应用 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
本文提出一种最佳静态集合样本的构造方法,利用不同时段内海浪有效波高的模拟偏差构造静态集合样本,并将其与由模拟结果和观测资料统计的模式误差进行概率密度分布及时空相关性分析,结果表明24h间隔有效波高偏差与后者的相关性最好,称为最佳静态集合样本,可用于近似背景误差。将所构造的静态集合样本应用于滤波同化调整过程,采用MASNUM海浪模式,利用Jason-1卫星高度计数据,对2008年全球海域开展海浪同化实验,实验结果表明,基于最佳静态集合样本的海浪同化调整,可以有效地改善海浪模式的模拟效果。 相似文献
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利用TOPEX卫星高度计资料分析东中国海的风、浪场特征 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用TOPEX卫星高度计和日本气象厅浮标观测资料,对东中国海的有效波高和风速进行比较,分析了卫星高度计资料的有效性。利用有效波高和风速的3种概率密度函数分布,结合TOPEX卫星高度计资料,并采用最大似然方法对统计分布参数进行估计,结果表明,有效波高的对数-正态概率密度分布与观测资料的直方图在有效波高的整个范围内符合较好,风速的直方图与Weibul概率密度分布符合较好。同时,分析了有效波高大于4 m的巨浪在东中国海的时空分布特征,表明巨浪多出现在冬、秋两季,平均有效波高最大值出现在夏季,且主要分布在东中国海东南部。 相似文献
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Increasing wave heights and extreme value projections: The wave climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Deep-water wave buoy data offshore from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) document that the annual averages of deep-water significant wave heights (SWHs) have increased at a rate of approximately 0.015 m/yr since the mid-1970s, while averages of the five highest SWHs per year have increased at the appreciably greater rate of 0.071 m/yr. Histograms of the hourly-measured SWHs more fully document this shift toward higher values over the decades, demonstrating that both the relatively low waves of the summer and the highest SWHs generated by winter storms have increased. Wave heights associated with higher percentiles in the SWH cumulative distribution function are shown to be increasing at progressively faster rates than those associated with lower percentiles. This property is demonstrated to be a direct result of the probability distributions for annual wave climates having lognormal- or Weibull-like forms in that a moderate increase in the mean SWH produces significantly greater increases in the tail of the distribution. Both the linear regressions of increasing annual averages and the evolving probability distribution of the SWH climate, demonstrating the non-stationarity of the Pacific Northwest wave climate, translate into substantial increases in extreme value projections, important in coastal engineering design and in quantifying coastal hazards. Buoy data have been analyzed to assess this response in the wave climate by employing various time-dependent extreme value models that directly compute the progressive increases in the 25- to 100-year projections. The results depend somewhat on the assumptions made in the statistical procedures, on the numbers of storm-generated SWHs included, and on the threshold value for inclusion in the analyses, but the results are consistent with the linear regressions of annual averages and the observed shifts in the histograms. 相似文献
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Saleh Abdalla 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):365-380
SARAL/AltiKa surface wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) measurements are monitored and validated against operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric and wave model results in addition to available in-situ observations to access their suitability for various applications, especially SWH data assimilation. The quality of SWH is very high while that of WS is very good except for an underestimation of high wind speeds. The impact of assimilating SWH in the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System was assessed using several numerical experiments. The results show positive impact. Operational assimilation of SWH at ECMWF model is part of the forthcoming model change. 相似文献
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南海及周边海域风浪流耦合同化精细化数值预报与信息服务系统简介 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
面向社会需求,建立覆盖南海及周边海域的高分辨率风-浪-流耦合同化数值预报与信息服务系统。系统包含耦合同化数值预报模式、海洋动力环境数据库与可视化平台两部分。其中,耦合同化数值预报模式由中尺度大气数值预报模式、海浪数值预报模式和区域海洋环流数值模式,在C-Coupler耦合器中进行耦合,引入集合调整Kalman滤波同化模块,在耦合预报前进行大气、海浪和海流的同化后报模拟,为耦合预报模式提供更为精确的初始场。预报结果经海洋动力环境数据库和可视化平台处理后,通过二维和三维可视化展示,向用户提供直观的南海及周边海域海洋环境预报产品。 相似文献
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卫星高度计实现了对全球性或区域性的海洋参量的实时监测,TOPEX卫星高度计提供了迄今为止时间序列最长、数据质量最高的全球海面风速和有效波高的同步观测资料。利用TOPEX卫星高度计资料,分析了有效波高4m以上的巨浪在台湾岛周边海域的时空分布特征,结果表明台湾岛周边海域巨浪的分布具有明显的季节特征。每年平均有效波高最大值大多数出现在夏季,春季是1a中有效波高最小的季节,而秋季和冬季是巨浪出现频率最高的季节。波高大于6m的巨浪大都出现在台湾岛东部及东北部海域,在南部海域出现较少。 相似文献
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Significant Wave Height (SWH) measurement data from the AltiKa Radar Altimeter (RA) for the first 13 cycles of satellite coverage are compared with the SWH from Wave Rider Buoys (WRB) located at nine stations along the Indian coast to assess the performance of the altimeter over the coastal region. AltiKa SWH observations within a 30-minute interval and 50 km distance from WRBs are found to be over estimated by 6%, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 0.36 m, the Scatter Index (SI) is 26%, and the correlation coefficient (r) is 0.91. Relaxing the distance criteria by 50 km leads to increase in RMSE and deterioration of r to 0.89. There is a marked difference in the statistics on the comparison pairs pooled separately for the buoys near west and east coasts, with the latter showing RMSE error 26% more than the former. The method of Cressman weights adopted to correct for the errors arising out of the temporal and spatial differences in altimeter and buoy data comparison pairs resulted in reduction of RMSE by 5% and 25%, respectively, for the 30-minute and 50 km criteria and 4% and 56% for the 30-minute and 100 km criteria. 相似文献
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Studies of offshore wave climate based on satellite altimeter significant wave height(SWH) have widespread application value. This study used a calibrated multi-altimeter SWH dataset to investigate the wave climate characteristics in the offshore areas of China. First, the SWH measurements from 28 buoys located in China's coastal seas were compared with an Ifremer calibrated altimeter SWH dataset. Although the altimeter dataset tended to slightly overestimate SWH, it was in good agreement with the in situ data in general. The correlation coefficient was 0.97 and the root-mean-square(RMS) of differences was 0.30 m. The validation results showed a slight difference in different areas. The correlation coefficient was the maximum(0.97) and the RMS difference was the minimum(0.28 m) in the area from the East China Sea to the north of the South China Sea.The correlation coefficient of approximately 0.95 was relatively low in the seas off the Changjiang(Yangtze River) Estuary. The RMS difference was the maximum(0.32 m) in the seas off the Changjiang Estuary and was0.30 m in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. Based on the above evidence, it is confirmed that the multialtimeter wave data are reliable in China's offshore areas. Then, the characteristics of the wave field, including the frequency of huge waves and the multi-year return SWH in China's offshore seas were analyzed using the23-year altimeter wave dataset. The 23-year mean SWH generally ranged from 0.6–2.2 m. The greatest SWH appeared in the southeast of the China East Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the northeast of the South China Sea.Obvious seasonal variation of SWH was found in most areas; SWH was greater in winter and autumn than in summer and spring. Extreme waves greater than 4 m in height mainly occurred in the following areas: the southeast of the East China Sea, the south of the Ryukyu Islands, the east of Taiwan-Luzon Island, and the Dongsha Islands extending to the Zhongsha Islands, and the frequency of extreme waves was 3%–6%. Extreme waves occurred most frequently in autumn and rarely in spring. The 100-year return wave height was greatest from the northwest Pacific seas extending to southeast of the Ryukyu Islands(9–12 m), and the northeast of the South China Sea and the East China Sea had the second largest wave heights(7–11 m). For inshore areas, the100-year return wave height was the greatest in the waters off the east coast of Guangdong Province and the south coast of Zhejiang Province(7–8 m), whereas it was at a minimum in the area from the Changjiang Estuary to the Bohai Sea(4–6 m). An investigation of sampling effects indicates that when using the 1°×1°grid dataset, although the combination of nine altimeters obviously enhanced the time and space coverage of sampling, the accuracy of statistical results, particularly extreme values obtained from the dataset, still suffered from undersampling problems because the time sampling percent in each 1°×1°grid cell was always less than33%. 相似文献
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Reasonably understanding of the long-term wave characteristics is very crucial for the ocean engineering. A feedforward neural network is operated for interpolating ERA5 wave reanalysis in this study, which embodies a detailed record from 1950 onwards. The spatiotemporal variability of wave parameters in the Bohai Sea, especially the significant wave height (SWH), is presented in terms of combined wave, wind wave and swell by employing the 71 years (1950–2020) of interpolated ERA5 reanalysis. Annual mean SWH decreases at ?0.12 cm/a estimated by Theil-Sen estimator and 95th percentile SWH reflecting serve sea states decreases at ?0.20 cm/a. Inter-seasonal analysis shows SWH of wind wave has steeper decreasing trend with higher slopes than that of swell, especially in summer and winter, showing the major decrease may attribute to the weakening of monsoon. The inner Bohai Sea reveals a general decreasing trend while the intersection connecting with the Yellow Sea has the lower significance derived by Mann-Kendall test. Meanwhile, 95th percentile SWH decreases at a higher rate while with a lower significance in comparison with the mean state. The frequencies of mean wave directions in sub-sector are statistically calculated to find the seasonal prevailing directions. Generally, the dominant directions in summer and winter are south and north. A similar variation concerning to SWH, the trend of the mean wave period is provided, which also shows a decrease for decades. 相似文献