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对快速增长的海洋经济做出可靠的预测,可以深化对海洋经济发展规律的认识,对确定海南省海洋经济增长前景和目标、制定海洋开发战略具有重要的实践和参考意义。文章在对比不同预测方法的基础上,基于现有的数据基础,遴选出灰色系统模型与时间序列模型作为预测工具,对海南省海洋生产总值进行预测。研究结果表明:①与时间序列模型相比,灰色系统模型在海南省海洋经济预测方面更为有效。②目前海南省海洋经济正处于成长期,未来10年仍将保持快速增长。③根据预测结果,到2025年海南省海洋生产总值将达到3 340亿元,年均增长率约为12.5%。 相似文献
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随着海洋经济的迅速发展,开发利用海洋资源与保护生态环境之间的矛盾日益突出,因此,评估绿色海洋经济可持续发展的态势对促进海洋经济和生态环境的协调发展意义深远。本文以江苏省为研究区,利用能值分析理论和方法,将海洋经济系统内可更新资源、不可更新资源、货币流、废物流等各类要素,通过能值转换率转换为统一标准的太阳能值,采用海域能值-货币比率、人均海域能值使用量、能值可持续发展指数、绿色海洋生产总值(绿色GOP)等指标,测度了2011—2015年江苏省绿色海洋经济可持续发展水平,旨在推进海洋经济可持续发展研究方法的应用,为江苏省海洋经济系统的综合评价及可持续发展管理提供科学依据。研究表明:(1)2011—2015年,江苏省绿色GOP持续增长,占传统GOP的比重从74.8%升至77.8%,表明江苏省在海洋经济快速增长的过程中,没有忽视对海洋资源和生态环境的保护。(2)江苏省绿色海洋经济可持续发展处于不稳定的状态:2011年可持续发展指数为12.77,2012—2015年可持续发展指数在6.87～9.70之间波动,表明江苏省海洋经济系统从经济不发达以及对海洋资源的开发利用程度不足,逐步过渡到海洋经济富有活力,发展效益好,可持续性强。 相似文献
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海洋经济是新一轮大国之间的经济较量,许多西方发达国家已经在海洋经济上遥遥领先。通过观察美国、英国等海洋大国发现,沿海国家均有一个统一的发展路径:产业结构的有效调整保证了海洋经济的高速发展。产业结构调整分为产业结构合理化和高级化两个方面,故文章将从"两化"视角来衡量我国海洋产业结构的调整情况,利用Eviews 8.0软件对2005—2015年我国海洋产业结构"两化"与海洋经济增长之间进行平稳性检验、协整检验及最小二乘法回归。由协整方程可知,海洋产业结构合理化和高级化每增长1%,会分别带动海洋经济上涨1.87%和2.96%;再由最小二乘法回归系数的方向性可知:海洋产业结构合理化、高级化会促进海洋经济的增长。根据研究结果进行分析可知,我国未来海洋产业结构调整的重点是海洋第二产业,对其未来发展提出3点建议,即基层和高端人才的培养、水产品精加工和生物医药的优先发展以及法律制度软环境的构造。 相似文献
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为科学合理评价区域海洋科技发展水平,进一步促进区域海洋经济增长,文章以东部海洋经济圈为例,采用主成分分析方法构建海洋科技发展水平综合指标,采用多元线性回归模型分析海洋科技发展等因素与海洋经济增长之间的关系,并提出建议。研究结果表明:海洋科技发展水平综合指标包括海洋科技支撑、海洋科技成果转化和海洋科技投入3个主要素及其11个指标,2006—2015年东部海洋经济圈各地海洋科技发展水平整体处于上升趋势,且差距较小;除政府支持力度外,海洋科技发展水平、海洋第三产业发展水平和工业污染程度等变量均与海洋生产总值存在显著相关关系,其中海洋科技发展水平为正相关;未来应促进海洋科技成果转化、减少区域壁垒制约以及加强海洋生态环境保护和治理。 相似文献
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文章在系统梳理海洋灾害研究进展的基础上,综述海洋灾害与海洋经济影响关系研究现状,并分析今后研究方向。现有研究大多将海洋灾害或海洋经济进行独立探讨,基础理论支撑与定量化研究都很不完善;结合灾害经济学的研究,以海洋作为研究对象,研究海洋灾害经济问题意义重大;研究角度可侧重于海洋灾害与海洋宏观经济(包括短期经济和长期经济)、海洋灾害与海洋微观经济以及构建海洋灾害经济数理模型等,具体研究内容可从海洋灾害与海洋经济相互关系的计量检验、海洋灾害对海洋经济系统影响的实证检验、海洋灾害经济的影响模型等方面展开。 相似文献
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碳排放约束下的中国海洋经济效率时空差异及影响因素分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以碳排放为非期望产出,运用非期望产出的SBM模型和Malmquist生产力指数对中国沿海11个省市区(不含港、澳、台)2006-2014年的海洋经济效率和全要素生产率进行测度,分析表明:(1)中国海洋经济平均效率在研究期内一直处于较低水平,整体上处于下降态势,但在研究期末有所回升;空间上,环渤海地区海洋经济效率值与长三角地区、泛珠三角地区效率值相比始终处于最低状态,但三大经济圈差距明显;(2)中国海洋经济全要素生产率在研究期内呈现下降趋势,年均下降0.8%,主要由于海洋经济技术效率的下降;空间上由研究期初的中部高、两端低演变为期末的全国均衡发展,但南方差异较大;(3)通过Tobit模型对影响因素做出回归分析,得出海洋经济发展水平、海洋产业结构水平和海洋科研人力资本水平是海洋经济效率的驱动因素。 相似文献
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The analysis of the structure of the cryolithozone, facies, and thicknesses of the Quaternary sediments and the results of the physicochemical mathematical modeling of the modern shelf of the western part of the Laptev Sea support the influence of the Late Pleistocene glaciations on the heat conditions and the distribution of the permafrost in the area. A ～200-m thick glacier formed under aerial conditions from atmospheric precipitation represented the metamorphosed snow cover. According to the modeling, the long-living (from 60?50 to 10?4 ky) glacier reduced the thickness of the permafrost rocks in the reviewed shelf area for 280–360 m. The Holocene marine transgression additionally decreased the thickness from 50–140 m on the inner shelf to 220–350 m on the outer shelf. The modern submarine cryolithozone 450-0 m thick is wide-spread in the studied region from the coast to the shelf boundary (isobaths of 130–140 m), where it pinches out at a distance of ～380 km from the coast at a depth of ～250 m above the sea level. 相似文献
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We analyze the components of the carbon system of the Sevastopol bay waters and the balance of main sediment-forming substances
using the data of field investigations in 1998–2008. The interannual variations of total inorganic carbon and the equilibrium
partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the bay water are noted. An increase in the flux of carbon dioxide into the bay and
in the content of organic carbon in bottom sediments is revealed, and an explanation of this phenomenon is given. The priority
accumulation of organic carbon in the sediments of the bay is established. We assess the interannual variation in the relative
abundances of organic and inorganic carbon as an index of the carbon cycle stability. 相似文献
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We generalize and analyze the state of investigations of the influence of river waters on the hydrologic structure of the
Black Sea. Specific features of the water, regime and hydrography of rivers flowing into the sea, data on the discharge of
rivers, and intrayear and interyear variability of the discharge are presented. We discuss and analyze works studying the
transformation of river waters, routes of desalinized sea waters, and their influence on the thermohaline structure and dynamic
regime of the sea.
Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev 相似文献
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V. A. Ivanov S. P. Lyubartseva N. Mikhailova N. B. Shapiro 《Physical Oceanography》2001,11(6):509-524
We analyze the results of numerical calculations performed according to the three-dimensional interdisciplinary model of an
ecological system of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube. The complete system of equations of hydrothermodynamics
is solved together with transport equations of the advection-diffusion-reaction type used to describe the transformation of
a substance (nitrogen) between the components of the characteristic vectors of the ecosystem: plankton, detritus, and biogenic
elements (nitrates). We describe the distinctive features of the circumcontinental distribution of components obtained as
a result of numerical experiments and present arguments for the conclusion that the ecosystem of the Danube estuary water
area plays the role of a buffer zone between the press of the Danubian biogenic pollutions and the neighbouring areas of the
shelf zone and open sea.
Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev 相似文献
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Ten years of semistationary studies of the interaction of the ice cover and the coastal relief of the Kandalakhsa Gulf in the White Sea allowed us to reveal the peculiarities of these processes in the warm and cold years and the mechanisms of the origination of ice forms, including ice tents, which govern the character of the tidal flats. Three dynamic fast ice zones are distinguished by their geomorphological location, morphology, and ice dynamics. The dependence of the mechanisms and volumes of the enrichment of the fast ice in the sediments on the coastal zone??s relief was established. At the coast of the Kindo Peninsula (Velikaya Salma Strait), the ice mostly contains fine-sandy sediments. Coarser sediments, including boulders, are occasional and frozen into the ice at the contact of the fast ice and the bottom. At the expense of the ice??s spreading by 4?C6 times in the warm years and 2?C4 times in the cold years, several thousand tons of sediments mostly from the tidal flat??s surface (100?C700 m3 from 1 km of coast in the wide tidal flats and <50 m3 on the steep coasts) are delivered to the water area. 相似文献
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Relationship between the path of the Kuroshio in the south of Japan and the path of the Kuroshio Extension in the east 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A relationship between paths of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension (KE) is investigated, using the satellite-derived altimetry
dataset of 1993–2008. When the Kuroshio takes the nearshore nonlarge meander path or typical large meander path and resultantly
goes through the deeper channel (about 2500 m) of the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge, the KE path adopts a relatively stable state with
the two quasi-stationary meanders. On the other hand, when the Kuroshio takes the offshore nonlarge meander path and then
passes over the shallower part of the Ridge (about 1000 m), the KE path tends to be convoluted, i.e., an unstable state. 相似文献
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I. E. Timchenko A. A. Primalenny V. D. Yarin E. F. Vasechkina E. M. Igumnova 《Physical Oceanography》2001,11(4):367-378
We use many-year archival observations of hydrologic and hydrobiologic state of the Sea of Azov for the identification of
the structure of a model of its ecosystem. The ecosystem model, supplemented with expert estimates of bioresource consumption
(fish reserve), contamination level, and possible ecologic fines for violation of the sea natural state, is formalized by
the method of system dynamics. Hereat, the major part of influence functions is found in terms of observational data with
application of self-organization algorithms. We also present the results of simulated experiments with the model of the ecosystem,
which enable us to analyse scenarios of its behaviour under the influence of various external factors (wind, river discharge,
water exchange with the Black Sea, etc.).
Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev 相似文献
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I. G. Ostrovskaya 《Physical Oceanography》1992,3(5):397-403
Three mathematical models are considered: a two-dimensional model for calculating the concentration fields of the ecosystem components on the shelf of the Republic of Guinea, a pointwise model for the annual variation of the components, and a two predators-prey model. These models are used to study the effect of hydrodynamic conditions on the state of the shelf ecosystem and for research into the causes which distort the balance between marketable and unmarketable fish.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov. 相似文献
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Al. A. Shreider 《Oceanology》2007,47(1):91-103
The first data on the temporal evolution of the slope of the buried depression of the Black Sea are obtained. The sharp change in the rate of the decrease in the slope steepness that occurred in the Late Miocene-Pliocene time reflects a reorientation of the vector of mutual movement and a related intensification of the collision between the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates. 相似文献
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The study of the sedimentary body of the Bransfield Strait has made it possible to identify several sedimentary complexes, to construct the first electronic charts for the acoustic basement, and to establish four stages of the evolution of its floor, which updates the previous knowledge about the formation of the strait. At the first stage, there was an increase in tension stresses that were accompanied by the local splits of the continental crust at the periphery of the Antarctic Peninsula. At the second stage, a graben-like structure filled with the Lower stratigraphic complex was formed northward of the Antarctic Peninsula. At the third stage, the continuing processes of extension led to intensive explosive activity of the growing volcanic structures and filling of the graben with sediments of the Middle seismostratigraphic complex. The fourth stage, which has continued until recently, is characterized by quasi-linear localization of the major centers of volcanic activity in the band closer to the South-Shetland Islands and the formation of the Upper seismostratigraphic sedimentary complex. The evolution of the floor of the Bransfield Strait reflects the process of penetration of the American-Antarctic ridge to the continental lithosphere of the Antarctic Peninsula for the last million years. 相似文献