共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 156 毫秒
1.
To explore new operational forecasting methods of waves, a forecasting model for wave heights at three stations in the Bohai Sea has been developed. This model is based on long short-term memory(LSTM) neural network with sea surface wind and wave heights as training samples. The prediction performance of the model is evaluated,and the error analysis shows that when using the same set of numerically predicted sea surface wind as input, the prediction error produced by the proposed LSTM model at Sta. N01 is 20%, 18% and 23% lower than the conventional numerical wave models in terms of the total root mean square error(RMSE), scatter index(SI) and mean absolute error(MAE), respectively. Particularly, for significant wave height in the range of 3–5 m, the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model is improved the most remarkably, with RMSE, SI and MAE all decreasing by 24%. It is also evident that the numbers of hidden neurons, the numbers of buoys used and the time length of training samples all have impact on the prediction accuracy. However, the prediction does not necessary improve with the increase of number of hidden neurons or number of buoys used. The experiment trained by data with the longest time length is found to perform the best overall compared to other experiments with a shorter time length for training. Overall, long short-term memory neural network was proved to be a very promising method for future development and applications in wave forecasting. 相似文献
2.
基于长短时记忆神经网络的台风路径临近预报模型 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
It is of vital importance to reduce injuries and economic losses by accurate forecasts of typhoon tracks. A huge amount of typhoon observations have been accumulated by the meteorological department, however, they are yet to be adequately utilized. It is an effective method to employ machine learning to perform forecasts. A long short term memory(LSTM) neural network is trained based on the typhoon observations during 1949–2011 in China's Mainland, combined with big data and data mining technologies, and a forecast model based on machine learning for the prediction of typhoon tracks is developed. The results show that the employed algorithm produces desirable 6–24 h nowcasting of typhoon tracks with an improved precision. 相似文献
3.
《中国海洋工程》1989,(3)
ADI method is adopted to establish a two-dimensional tidal current numerical model for Beilun Harbor based on the hydrologic data and sediment data. The current conditions of the site where the second stage project is going to be carried out are described. The analysis and calculations for the deposition and erosion in the harbor basin are performed, which provides references for the construction of the harbor. The effect of the pile group on the current is simulated by increasing the sea bed roughness which can be determined with empirical equations of artificial roughness. The method is considered to be applicable after verification with field data. The test has provided experiences for future mathematical modelling to simulate the open type hydraulic structures. 相似文献
4.
In order to determine the design tide levels in the areas without measured tide level data, especially in the areas where it is difficult to measure tidal levels, a calculation method based on a numerical model of tidal current is proposed. The essentials of the method are described, and its application is illustrated with an example. The results of the application show that the design tide levels calculated by the method are close to those determined by long-time measured tide level data, and its calculation precision is high, so it is feasible to use the method to determine the design tide levels in the areas. 相似文献
5.
Conventional retrieval and neural network methods are used simultaneously to retrieve sea surface wind speed(SSWS) from HH-polarized Sentinel-1(S1) SAR images. The Polarization Ratio(PR) models combined with the CMOD5.N Geophysical Model Function(GMF) is used for SSWS retrieval from the HH-polarized SAR data. We compared different PR models developed based on previous C-band SAR data in HH-polarization for their applications to the S1 SAR data. The recently proposed CMODH, i.e., retrieving SSWS directly from the HHpolarized S1 data is also validated. The results indicate that the CMODH model performs better than results achieved using the PR models. We proposed a neural network method based on the backward propagation(BP)neural network to retrieve SSWS from the S1 HH-polarized data. The SSWS retrieved using the BP neural network model agrees better with the buoy measurements and ASCAT dataset than the results achieved using the conventional methods. Compared to the buoy measurements, the bias, root mean square error(RMSE) and scatter index(SI) of wind speed retrieved by the BP neural network model are 0.10 m/s, 1.38 m/s and 19.85%,respectively, while compared to the ASCAT dataset the three parameters of training set are –0.01 m/s, 1.33 m/s and 15.10%, respectively. It is suggested that the BP neural network model has a potential application in retrieving SSWS from Sentinel-1 images acquired at HH-polarization. 相似文献
6.
An approach based on artificial neural network (ANN) is used to develop predictive relations between hydrodynamic inline force on a vertical cylinder and some effective parameters. The data used to calibrate and validate the ANN models are obtained from an experiment. Multilayer feed-forward neural networks that are trained with the back-propagation algorithm are constructed by use of three design parameters (i.e. wave surface height, horizontal and vertical velocities) as network inputs and the ultimate inline force as the only output. A sensitivity analysis is conducted on the ANN models to investigate the generalization ability (robustness) of the developed models, and predictions from the ANN models are compared to those obtained from Morison equation which is usually used to determine inline force as a computational method. With the existing data, it is found that least square method (LSM) gives less error in determining drag and inertia coefficients of Morison equation. With regard to the predicted results agreeing with calculations achieved from Morison equation that used LSM method, neural network has high efficiency considering its convenience, simplicity and promptitude. The outcome of this study can contribute to reducing the errors in predicting hydrodynamic inline force by use of ANN and to improve the reliability of that in comparison with the more practical state of Morison equation. Therefore, this method can be applied to relevant engineering projects with satisfactory results. 相似文献
7.
A two-dimensional coastal ocean model based on unstructured C-grid is built, in which the momentum equation is discretized on the faces of each cell, and the continuity equation is discretized on the cell. The model is discretized by semi-implicit finite volume method, in that the free surface is semi-implicit and the bottom friction is implicit, thereby removing stability limitations associated with the surface gravity wave and friction. The remaining terms in the momentum equations are discretized explicitly by integral finite volume method and second-order Adams-Bashforth method. Tidal flow in the polar quadrant with known analytic solution is employed to test the proposed model. Finally, the performance of the present model to simulate tidal flow in a geometrically complex domain is examined by simulation of tidal currents in the Pearl River Estuary. 相似文献
8.
The sea-surface height (SSH) signatures of internal tides extracted from the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) altimeter data along satellite tracks are fitted with superposition of several plane waves which have different wavenumber vectors. The key problem of plane wave fitting with iterative method is how to determine the initial value of wavenumber of each plane wave. The previous solving method is to analyze the internal tidal SSH signatures along each track with wavenumber spectrum. But it is found that the problem cannot be solved completely with the wavenumber spectrum analysis method only. The method based on the combination of wavenumber spectrum analysis method and the exhaustive method is proposed to determine the initial values of wavenumbers for iteration. Numerical results indicate that the proposed method is not only reasonable and feasible but also better than the previous method. The proposed method is an improvement of the previous one, which is beneficial to improving the precision of plane wave fitting of the T/P internal tidal SSH signatures and deepening the understanding of the internal tides in ocean. 相似文献
9.
LIU Xiu-quan JIANG Yong LIU Fu-lai LIU Zhao-wei CHANG Yuan-jiang CHEN Guo-ming 《中国海洋工程》2021,(1):153-158
Vortex induced vibration(VIV)is a challenge in ocean engineering.Several devices including fairings have been designed to suppress VIV.However,how to optimize the design of suppression devices is still a problem to be solved.In this paper,an optimization design methodology is presented based on data-driven models and genetic algorithm(GA).Data-driven models are introduced to substitute complex physics-based equations.GA is used to rapidly search for the optimal suppression device from all possible solutions.Taking fairings as example,VIV response database for different fairings is established based on parameterized models in which model sections of fairings are controlled by several control points and Bezier curves.Then a data-driven model,which can predict the VIV response of fairings with different sections accurately and efficiently,is trained through BP neural network.Finally,a comprehensive optimization method and process is proposed based on GA and the data-driven model.The proposed method is demonstrated by its application to a case.It turns out that the proposed method can perform the optimization design of fairings effectively.VIV can be reduced obviously through the optimization design. 相似文献
10.
A novel method for prediction of the load carrying capacity of a corroded reinforced concrete beam (CRCB) is presented in the paper. Nine reinforced concrete beams, which had been working in an aggressive environment for more than 10 years, were tested in the laboratory. Comprehensive tests, including flexural test, strength test for corroded concrete and rusty rebar, and pullout test for bond strength between concrete and rebar, were condueted. The flexural test results of CRCBs reveal that the distribution of surface cracks on the beams shows a fractal behavior. The relationship between the fractal dimensions and mechanical properties of CRCBs is then studied. A prediction model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is established by the use of the fractal dimension as the corrosion index, together with the basic intbrmation of the beam. The validity of the prediction model is demonstrated through the experimental data, and satisfactory resuits are achieved. 相似文献
11.
河口潮汐过程受上游径流、外海潮波等综合因素影响,动力机制复杂,潮位预报难度大。本文提出了一种基于非稳态调和分析（NS_TIDE）和长短时记忆（LSTM）神经网络的混合模型,对河口潮位进行12~48 h短期预报。该模型首先对河口实测潮汐数据进行非稳态调和分析,通过与实测资料对比得到分析误差的时序序列;以此作为LSTM神经网络的输入数据,通过网络学习并预测未来12~48 h潮位预报误差,据此对NS_TIDE的预测结果进行实时校正。利用该模型对2020年长江口潮位过程进行了预报检验,结果表明混合模型12 h、24 h、36 h和48 h短期水位预报的均方根误差（RMSE）相比NS_TIDE模型至多分别降低了0.16 m、0.15 m、0.14 m和0.12 m;针对2020年南京站最高水位预测,NS_TIDE模型预报误差为0.64 m,而混合模型预报误差仅为0.10 m。 相似文献
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13.
针对目前存在的海水水质受多因素影响、评价难的现状，提出了一种基于粒子群算法（PSO）优化误差反向传播（BP）神经网络的海水水质评价模型。该模型通过PSO得到BP神经网络最优的权值和阈值，结合青岛东部海域10个监测站点的数据得到水质评价结果。实验证明，该模型和单因子评价、传统的BP神经网络评价相比较，具有训练时间短、预测精度高的特点，在海水水质评价中具有良好的应用价值。 相似文献
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15.
海洋环境中平台钢腐蚀速率的三层BP 神经网络预测 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用三层BP神经网络预测海洋环境因素对材料的腐蚀速率的影响。结合实测的pH值、温度、溶解氧、盐度、生物附着等影响因素,分析了上述环境因素对平台钢腐蚀的影响,建立环境因素与腐蚀速率之间的映射关系,预测了平台钢在海洋环境中的腐蚀速率。结果表明,全浸区腐蚀速率预测误差为6.95%,潮差带腐蚀速率预测误差为4.2%,预测精度较高。说明利用三层BP神经网络预测钢在海水中腐蚀速率技术可行,具有较高的预测精度和应用价值。 相似文献
16.
西北太平洋柔鱼中长期预测方法研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
为了能更好预测西北太平洋柔鱼的资源量, 选择合适的预测方法及开发相应的预测系统颇为重要。利用相关性分析, 筛选出在产卵区显著影响西北太平洋柔鱼资源量的关键网格点, 并采用这些网格点的海表温度、产卵区适宜温度所占面积的比例和单位努力捕获量等数据组织样本, 然后利用线性回归、BP 神经网络、RBF 神经网络和支持向量机等预测方法进行实验。结果表明: 在西北太平洋柔鱼中长期预测中, BP 神经网络要优于其他方法。以相关性分析和BP 神经网络为基础建立的西北太平洋柔鱼资源量预测系统是有效可行的。 相似文献
17.
基于调和分析法与ANFIS系统的综合潮汐预报模型 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
港口沿岸地区以及河流入海口等地区的精确潮汐预报对于各种海洋工程作业有着非常重要的意义。潮汐水位的变化受到众多复杂因素的影响,而且这些复杂的因素往往有着较强的实变性和非线性。为了进一步提高沿岸港口码头等水域的潮汐水位的预测精度,本文提出了一种基于调和分析模型与自适应神经模糊推理系统相结合的模块化潮汐水位预测模型;并采用相关分析确定整个预测模型的输入维数;模块化将潮汐分解为两部分：由天体引潮力形成的天文潮部分和由各种天气以及环境因素引起非天文潮部分。其中调和分析法用于天文潮部分的预测,ANFIS用于预测具有较强非线性的非文潮部分。模块化综合了两种方法的优势,即调和分析法能够实现长期、稳定的天文潮预报,ANFIS能够以较高的精度实现潮汐非线性拟合与预测。模型使用ANFIS模型和调和分析模型分别对潮汐的非天文潮和天文潮部分进行仿真预测,然后将两部分的预测结果综合形成最终的潮汐预测值。此外,本文选用三种不同的模糊规则生成方法（grid partition （GP）,fuzzy c-means （FCM） and sub-clustering （SC））生成完整的ANFIS系统,并使用实测数据进行验证用以选取最优的ANFIS预测模型。最后将最优的ANFIS模型与调和分析模型相结合进行潮汐水位的最终预报。仿真实验选用Fort Pulaski潮汐观测站的实测潮汐值数据进行预报的仿真实验,仿真结果验证了该模型的可行性与有效性并取得了良好的效果,具有较高的预报精度。 相似文献
18.
长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnusalalunga)是主要的经济性金枪鱼鱼种之一,其空间分布与环境因子存在着密切联系。利用2012—2019年印度洋长鳍金枪鱼生产数据和海洋环境数据,包括海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、叶绿素浓度(chlorophyll a, chl a)和海表面盐度(sea surface salinity, SSS)构建印度洋长鳍金枪鱼时空分布神经网络模型。以空间(经度,纬度)、环境因子(SST, chl a, SSS)为解释变量,局部渔获量为因变量,变化隐含层节点数,构建了18个BP空间分布模型,并采用10×10交叉验证模型稳定性,以均方误差(meansquareerror,MSE)、平均相对方差(averagerelativevariance,ARV)以及拟合优度(R~2)作为不同模型精度与稳定性的评判标准,最终选取5-18-1(隐含层节点18)模型为最佳模型,其平均MSE值为0.02232,平均ARV值为0.511。利用最优模型预测结果与同期实际捕捞产量进行叠加对比发现两者具有一致性。环境因子敏感性分析表明海表温度显著影响印度洋长鳍金枪鱼渔场分布,其贡献率达到0.2。印度洋长鳍金枪鱼高精度BP神经网络时空分布模型为其资源的可持续开发与动态管理提供了一种新思路。 相似文献
19.
Application of artificial neural networks in tide-forecasting 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
An accurate tidal forecast is an important task in determining constructions and human activities in ocean environments. Conventional tidal forecasting has been based on harmonic analysis using the least squares method to determine harmonic parameters. However, a large number of parameters are required for the prediction of a long-term tidal level with harmonic analysis. Unlike conventional harmonic analysis, this paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) model for forecasting the tidal-level using the short term measuring data. The ANN model can easily decide the unknown parameters by learning the input–output interrelation of the short-term tidal records. Three field data with three types of tides will be used to test the performance of the proposed ANN model. The numerical results indicate that the hourly tidal levels over a long duration can be predicted using a short-term hourly tidal record. 相似文献