共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 546 毫秒
1.
本文应用Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布各参数的概率权重矩表达式，估计Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布参数，并用该分布推算一百年一遇最大风速值，与目前国内较为流行的极值Ⅰ型和对数正态分布推算值比较接近。通过统计检验对概率权重矩法与最小二乘法和最大似然法进行比较，结果表明，虽然其拟合优度与最小二乘法和最大似然法相当，但计算过程要简单得多。 相似文献
2.
3.
根据１９６０－１９８９年南麂海洋站的实测风浪资料，分析了该海域的风浪特征，结果认为：这个海域的浪通常是混合浪，常见浪是三级波高的浪；海浪要素的均值分布比较平稳，极值具有不均匀分布的特性，本区的波高和周期的联合分布表明，波高在０．５－１．９ｍ，周期为４．０－６．９ｓ类型的浪在该海域出现频率最高，此外，引用最大熵谱方法找出了本区波高，周期和风速的主要变化周期，还讨论了台风浪的周期与最大波高的经验关系。 相似文献
4.
最大熵原理应用于海浪波高分布的研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用最大熵原理从理论上推导出波高的最大熵分布,在此基础上研究了状态参量对波高分布和波高熵的影响。影响最大熵分布的因子是平均波高和状态参量,不同海况对应的状态参量是不同的。利用波高实测资料,得出3种不同海况下的最大熵分布,通过比较发现最大熵分布很好地符合实测数据。把最大熵分布与目前广泛应用的瑞利分布作了比较,结果表明,最大熵分布有2个优点：没有对波高作出任何限制性假定和能够描述不同海况下的波高分布。 相似文献
5.
6.
利用浙江苍南近岸海域一年实测波浪资料，统计分析了波参数特征，采用最小二乘法拟合分析了波参数之间的相关关系，研究波浪平均持续时间和波高的关系，对波浪能进行估算，并分析了台风“利奇马”期间典型台风浪特征。结果表明：研究海域以谱峰周期5～9 s的轻浪为主，年平均有效波高为1.25 m,年最大波高为10.80 m,常浪向为E,强浪向为ENE。特征波高之间具有显著的线性关系，符合典型的瑞利分布。有效波高2.7 m以下的非台风、非寒潮期和4.1 m以上的台风期，波浪平均持续时间随波高的增大呈指数衰减，且有效波高在4.1 m以上的台风期的波浪衰减速率高于有效波高在2.7 m以下的非台风、非寒潮期。台风“利奇马”影响期间，最大波高、谱峰周期、谱峰密度呈现基本同步的先增大后减小的过程，最大谱峰密度为55.10 m2/Hz;台风影响前、后的波浪谱型均呈双峰谱，台风影响最显著期间的波浪谱型呈单峰谱。 相似文献
7.
8.
基于非线性Beta波面分布，采用变换ξ=lnH／γ，导出了一种仅用随机波面偏度λ3和尖度λ4两个参数表示的非线性有效波高概率分布——对数-Beta分布，发展了线性海浪有效波高的双参数对数-正态分布。对比结果表明，对数-Beta分布理论曲线与其对应的实测资料符合良好。推导出的对数-Beta分布的优点是，基本参数较少且便于确定，并可由随机波面高度资料直接推导出对应的有效波高概率密度函数。 相似文献
9.
10.
11.
XU Fumin
Ph. D. College of Harbor Waterway Coastal Engineering Hohai University Nanjing P. R. China. 《中国海洋工程》1999,(1)
—The maximum entropy principle(MEP)method and the corresponding probability evaluationmethod are introduced,and the maximum entropy probability distribution expression is deduced in mo-ment of the second order.Fully developed wave height distribution in deep water and wave height and peri-od distribution for different depths in wind wave channel experiment are obtained from the MEP method,and the results are compared with the distribution and the experimental histogram.The waveheight and period distribution for the Lianyungang port is also obtained by the MEP method,and the re-sults are compared with the Weibull distribution and the field histogram. 相似文献
12.
响水近岸海域波浪特性研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
基于响水波浪站累计一整年的现场观测资料，分析了波高和波周期的年内变化特性，研究了波浪的统计特性和波谱特性，并总结归纳了该海域各特征波要素之间以及各波谱参数之间的转换关系。结果显示:响水海域全年有效波高的变化幅度在0.10~2.80 m之间，年平均值为0.56 m；最大波高的变化幅度在0.15~5.58 m之间，年平均值为0.93 m；平均波周期的变化范围为1.91~9.02 s，年平均值为3.90 s。夏季大波高发生频率明显要小于冬、春季节，波浪季节性变化较为显著。就波高和波周期分布而言，通过拟合得出的Weibull分布较为适合本海域实测波高分布和波周期分布。波谱特性方面，本海域双峰谱占到总数的62.5%，且低频谱峰值普遍高于高频谱峰值，其中低频谱峰出现在0.04 Hz左右，高频谱峰则出现在0.15~0.20 Hz之间，分别为本海域涌浪和风浪所集中的频率区间。采用回归分析方法进一步分析了各特征波要素之间以及各波谱参数之间的关系，发现多数波参数之间存在显著的相关性，但受波浪浅水变形影响，各参数之间的比值与理论深水关系有所区别。本文的研究成果可为沿海建筑物的设计以及防灾减灾提供参考和依据。 相似文献
13.
The new distributions of the statistics of wave groups based on the maximum entropy principle are presented.The maximum entropy distributions appear to be superior to conventional distributions when applied to a limited amount of information.Its applications to the wave group properties show the effectiveness of the maximum entropy distribution.FFT filtering method is employed to obtain the wave envelope fast and efficiently.Comparisons of both the maximum entropy distribution and the distribution of Longuet-Higgins(1984) with the laboratory wind-wave data show that the former gives a better fit 相似文献
14.
Based on the Vine copula theory, a trivariate statistical model of significant wave height, characterized wave period and mean wave direction was constructed. To maintain the properties of the different types of variables, a special copula function was derived from the model developed by Johnson and Wehrly based on the maximum entropy principle. It was then combined with the Archimedean copulas to construct the proposed model. An effective algorithm for generating corresponding joint pseudo-random numbers was also developed. Statistical analysis of hindcast data for the significant wave height, mean wave period, and direction, which were collected from an observation point in the North Atlantic every three hours from 1997 to 2001, was performed. The marginal distributions of the significant wave height and mean wave period were fitted by a modified maximum entropy distribution, and the mean wave direction was fitted by a mixture of von Mises distributions. It was shown that the proposed model is a good fit for the data. The seasonal wave energy resources in the target area were assessed using the model estimates. Histograms of the directional wave energy, wave energy roses, and scatter and energy diagrams were presented. 相似文献
15.
Calibration coefficients incorporated in the modified Weibull distribution are more effective for maximum wave height simulation. The parametric relations are derived there from to estimate various wave height statistics including extreme wave heights. The characteristic function of the Weibull distribution is derived. The Weibull distribution is suggested for the newly defined significant wave height simulation by the method of characteristic function. The statistical tools suggested and developed here for predicting the required wave height statistics are validated against the wave data (both deep and shallow) of eastern Arabian Sea comprising rough monsoon conditions also, giving reasonable accuracy. 相似文献
16.
分析波高与周期的联合分布特征对于海洋平台设计、海洋工程建筑等有着重要的意义。基于SWAN模型模拟的波浪后报数据对渤海和黄海北部1999~2018年的波浪特征进行了统计分析。分别对20年的波高和周期数据进行了统计分析,得到了研究区域20年有效波高和波周期的季平均值和最大值的区域分布特征。然后以散布图的形式刻画了整个区域20年波高和周期的联合分布特征。为了更深入地研究波高和周期的联合分布规律,选择了两个研究点A1和A2,A1在渤海内部相对近岸,A2在黄海北部深海区。统计结果表明,在A1和A2,波高与周期的联合分布特征较为相似,均呈现斜三角形的分布特征,然而大波高大周期的波浪却呈现不同的分布特征。最后,利用20年的波浪后报数据,在A1和A2点构建了有效波高和谱峰周期的联合概率模型,并采用IFORM法得到了50年、100年和200年重现周期的环境等值线,为研究海域海上结构物的可靠性设计提供了参考。 相似文献
17.
A probabilistic framework is presented to select the design significant wave height and design transverse rotation for typical barges used in the Gulf of Mexico for marine transportation of structural elements and/or systems. The selection of design transverse rotation is based on optimization procedure that trade-off between the performance of the barge subjected to a meteorological-oceanographic (metocean) hazard along the route and losses by structural damage. For this purpose probabilistic models to estimate the metocean hazard for marine transportation are shown. Afterwards, the design rotation is linked to the design of significant wave height and to the return period associated with such wave conditions. The formulation is applied to an offshore transportation route in the Gulf of Mexico. 相似文献