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1.
台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和路径的不确定性意味着使用集合模式来预报风暴潮。本文利用中央气象台的最优路径台风参数驱动国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的水动力学模型，开展华南沿海的风暴潮模拟，模式模拟结果与实测吻合较好。为了改进计算效率，采用CUDA Fortran 语言对模型进行了改造，改造后的模型在计算结果与原模型基本一致的基础上，计算时间缩短了99%以上。通过融合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）的50条路径与3种可能台风强度构造出了150个台风事件，并用150个台风事件驱动改进的风暴潮数值模型，计算结果可以提供集合预报产品和概率预报产品。通过“山竹”台风风暴潮过程可以发现集合平均预报结果和概率预报结果与实测吻合较好。改进的数值模型可以运行普通工作站上，非常适合风暴潮集合预报，并且可以提供更好的决策产品。  相似文献   

2.
The influence of the asymmetric structure of hurricane wind field on storm surge is studied with five types of numerical experiments using a three-dimensional storm surge model. The results from the case of Hurricane Floyd (1999) show that Floyd-induced peak surge would have been much higher had the region of maximum wind rotated 30–90° counterclockwise. The idealized cases (the hypothetical hurricanes) with a wind speed asymmetry of 20 m s?1 show that the peak (negative) surge varied from 4.7 to 6.0 m (?5 to ?5.7 m) or equivalent to ?8.8% and 16.3% (2.8% and ?10.4%) differences as compared to the control experiment. The area of flooding varied from 3552 to 3660 km2. The results from two other idealized cases of varying degree of wind speed asymmetry further show that with decreasing (increasing) asymmetry of wind fields, the variations of peak surge and peak negative surge caused by the rotation of wind fields decrease (increase) accordingly. The results suggest that in storm surge simulations forced by winds derived from balanced models, considerable uncertainty in storm surge and inundation can result from wind asymmetries. This is true even if all other storm parameters, including maximum wind speed, the radius of maximum winds (storm size), minimum central pressure, storm translation speed, drag coefficient, and model settings (domain size and resolution) are identical. Thus, when constructing ensemble and probabilistic storm surge forecasts, uncertainty in wind asymmetry should be considered in conjunction with variations in storm track, storm intensity and size.  相似文献   

3.
《Ocean Modelling》2011,39(3-4):251-266
Results are presented from an ensemble prediction study (EPS) of the East Australian Current (EAC) with a specific focus on the examination of the role of dynamical instabilities and flow dependent growing errors. The region where the EAC separates from the coast, is characterized by significant mesoscale eddy variability, meandering and is dominated by nonlinear dynamics thereby representing a severe challenge for operational forecasting. Using analyses from OceanMAPS, the Australian operational ocean forecast system, we explore the structures of flow dependent forecast errors over 7 days and examine the role of dynamical instabilities. Forecast ensemble perturbations are generated using the method of bred vectors allowing the identification of those perturbations to a given initial state that grow most rapidly. We consider a 6 month period spanning the Austral summer that corresponds to the season of maximum eddy variability. We find that the bred vector (BV) structures occur in areas of instability where forecast errors are large and in particular in regions associated with the Tasman Front and EAC extension. We also find that very few BVs are required to identify these regions of large forecast error and on that basis we expect that even a small BV ensemble would prove useful for adaptive sampling and targeted observations. The results presented also suggest that it may be beneficial to supplement the static background error covariances typically used in operational ocean data assimilation systems with flow dependent background errors calculated using a relatively cheap EPS.  相似文献   

4.
This paper investigates the performance of a small axisymmetric buoy under wave-by-wave near optimal control in surge, heave, and pitch modes in long-crested irregular waves. Wave prediction is obtained using a deterministic propagation model. The paper describes the overall formulation leading up to the derivation of the feedforward control forces in surge and heave, and the control moment in pitch. The radiation coupling between surge and pitch modes is accounted for in the model. Actuation is relative to deeply submerged reaction masses. Heave oscillations are constrained by the swept-volume limit. Oscillation constraints are also applied on the surge and pitch oscillations. The paper discusses time-domain simulations for an irregular wave input with and without the present control. Also discussed are results obtained over a range of irregular wave conditions derived for energy periods from 7 s to 17 s, and a significant wave height of 1 m. It is found that, while the gains in power capture enabled by the present control are significant, the actuation forces are also very large, given the small size of the buoy. Further, due to the small size, heave is found to be the dominant contributor to power capture, with relatively modest contributions from surge and pitch.  相似文献   

5.
The tsunami of 26 December 2004 was the largest ever recorded in the Indian Ocean, triggered by the 3rd largest earthquake in 100 years measuring 9.2 moment magnitude. The epicenter of the earthquake was off Banda Aceh on the Indian Ocean coast of the island of Sumatra in Indonesia, centered at 3.316°N, 95.854°E. A sudden upward movement of the seafloor that averaged ∼6 m occurred along almost 1300 km of the north-east Indian Ocean plate at 0059 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) and lasted 8 min. Because of the lack of preparedness and absence of warning systems in the Indian Ocean the tsunami spread silently across the ocean over a span of 8 h causing massive destruction including the deaths of over 250,000 people, with maximum damages occurring in Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and the Maldives. Moderate to low damages were recorded in the Seychelles, Socotra (Yemen) and Somalia, though in the latter a highly vulnerable town was impacted resulting in over 300 deaths. Most of eastern Africa was spared massive damages from the waves due to (a) distance from the epicenter (>6000 km), (b) the dissipation of energy of the tsunami by shallow banks in the middle of the Indian Ocean (the Seychelles banks, Saya de Malha and Cargados Carajos Shoals) and (c) at least for Kenya and Tanzania, the first and largest waves hit at low tide. In Kenya and Tanzania these factors resulted in the waves being experienced as tidal surges of 1–1.5 m amplitude lasting 5–10 min. Damages recorded for eastern Africa include 11 deaths in Tanzania and 1 in Kenya, of people walking and swimming over shallow intertidal flats being trapped by the advancing and receding tidal surges, damage to boats anchored in shallow water and inundation in Mauritius and Rodrigues. Official information, warning and response networks were nonexistent, and even when an official response was generated in Kenya the public demonstrated no faith or willingness to act on warnings from officials such as the police. Importantly, information on the tsunami and the generation of an official response was dependent on two technologies, satellite television and mobile telephony, and these should be built into future warning systems as key mechanisms and backups to official information and warning networks.  相似文献   

6.
Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions.When storm surges coincide with high tide,coastal flooding can occur.Creating storm surge prediction systems has been an important and operational task worldwide.This study developed a coupled tide and storm surge numerical model of the seas around Taiwan for operational purposes at the Central Weather Bureau.The model was calibrated and verified by using tidal records from seas around Taiwan.Model skill was assessed based on measured records,and the results are presented in details.At 3-minute resolution,tides were generally well predicted,with the root mean-square errors of less than 0.11 m and an overall correlation of more than 0.9.Storms(winds and depressions) were introduced into the model forcing by using the parameter typhoon model.Five typical typhoons that threatened Taiwan were simulated for assessment.The surges were well predicted compared with the records.  相似文献   

7.
In this study we investigated the impacts of potential changes of land cover due to sea-level rise (SLR) on storm surge (i.e., the rise of water above normal sea level, namely mean-sea level and the astronomical tide, caused by hurricane winds and pressure) response inside bays on the lower Texas coast. We applied a hydrodynamic and wave model (ADCIRC + SWAN) forced by hurricane wind and pressure fields to quantify the importance of SLR-induced land cover changes, considering its impacts by changing bottom friction and the transfer of wind momentum to the water column, on the peak surge inside coastal bays. The SLR increments considered, 0.5 m to 2.0 m, significantly impacted the surge response inside the bays. The contribution of land cover changes due to SLR to the surge response, on average, ranged from a mean surge increase of 2% (SLR of 0.5 m) to 15% (SLR of 2.0 m), in addition to the SLR increments. The increase in surge response strongly depended on storm condition, with larger increases for more intense storms, and geographical location. Although land cover changes had little impact on the surge increase for SLR increments lower than 1.0 m, intense storms resulted in surge increase of up to 10% even for SLR below 1.0 m, but in most cases, the geometry changes were the major factor impacting the surge response due to SLR. We also found a strong relationship between changes in bottom friction and the surge response intensification; demonstrating the importance of considering land cover changes in coastal regions that are highly susceptible to SLR when planning for climate change.  相似文献   

8.
Between November 2001 and March 2002 an Australian/Japanese collaborative study completed six passes of a transect line in the Seasonal-Ice Zone (south of 62°S) along 140°E. Zooplankton samples were collected with a NORPAC net on 22–28 November, and a Continuous Plankton Recorder on 10–15 January, 11–12 February, 19–22 February, 25–26 February, and 10–11 March. Zooplankton densities were lowest on 22–28 November (ave=61 individuals (ind) m−3), when almost the entire transect was covered by sea ice. By 10–15 January sea surface temperature had increased by ∼2 °C across the transect line, and the study area was ice-free. Total zooplankton abundance had increased to maximum levels for the season (ave=1301 ind m−3; max=1979 ind m−3), dominated by a “Peak Community” comprising Oithona similis, Ctenocalanus citer, Clausocalanus laticeps, foraminiferans, Limacina spp., appendicularians, Rhincalanus gigas and large calanoid copepodites (C1–3). Total densities declined on each subsequent transect, returning to an average of 169 ind m−3 on 10–11 March. The seasonal density decline was due to the decline in densities of “Peak Community” taxa, but coincided with the rise of Euphausia superba larvae into the surface waters, increased densities of Salpa thompsoni, and an increased contribution of C4 to adult stages to the populations of Calanoides acutus, Calanus propinquus and Calanus simillimus. The seasonal community succession appeared to be influenced by the low sea ice extent and southward projection of the ACC in this region. The relatively warm ACC waters, together with low krill biomass, favoured high densities of small grazers during the January/February bloom conditions. The persistence of relatively warm surface waters in March and the seasonal decrease in chlorophyll a biomass provided favorable conditions for salps, which were able to penetrate south of the Southern Boundary.  相似文献   

9.
A group of 30 surface drifters, launched over a 4 day period as part of a US Navy exercise in early October 2007, are used to assess the predictability of trajectories in a confined geographic region at the northwestern edge of the Kuroshio north of Taiwan. Model trajectories were computed from archives of hourly hindcast velocities from the US Navy East Asian Seas (EAS16) model with 1/16° horizontal resolution. Three metrics are defined for comparing observed and modeled trajectories. All three metrics indicated that model trajectories separated from observations by roughly 15 km after the first 24 h on average. Because of the unique launch strategy for these drifters, with six repetitions of launches from four locations, the dependence of predictability on both launch time and launch location could be assessed separately. Predictive skill displayed only modest dependence on launch time, likely influenced by the passage of a typhoon near the experiment area a few days prior to the first drifter launch. Launch location was a much more reliable indicator of predictive skill, with trajectories for launches closest to the edge of the Kuroshio typically hardest to predict, and those for launches on the shelf, where currents tended to be weaker, predicted more accurately. Comparisons of skill metric statistics for modeled trajectories from hindcasts with and without tides suggested that tidal currents have only a small impact on predictive skill. The influence of archive time and space resolution was also studied using sets of model trajectories computed from hindcast archives that were systematically subsampled separately in space and time. Coarsening by up to a factor of eight in either space or time had little impact on predictive skill. Further coarsening degraded trajectory predictions, particularly when coarsening in time leads to an archive time step too large to adequately resolve the tides. While accurate trajectory predictions remain challenging for ocean models, skill assessments like the one presented here are important for developing error estimates for users of trajectory forecasts and for gaining new insight into potential sources of model errors.  相似文献   

10.
为了改进温带气旋数值预报的精度,基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,利用GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)-EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter)系统,设计了一套温带气旋集合预报方法,其具有的2种选择方案通过滤掉质量较差的集合成员从而将集合成员数目控制在10以内,达到了大幅降低集合预报计算量的目的。针对2020年7月一次影响黄海的温带气旋个例,开展了一系列决定性预报与集合预报的数值对比试验。分析结果如下:1)不采取任何择优方案的集合预报效果就已经明显优于决定性预报,而采取择优方案使得预报效果进一步得到提升;2)预报初始时刻择优(直接择优方案)的集合预报效果远不如短时积分3 h后才进行择优(积分择优方案)的预报效果; 3)积分择优方案优于直接择优方案的原因是,初始场集合体中的成员经过短时积分后其误差得以放大而使得择优更加准确。多个例的应用结果进一步表明,本文提出的积分择优方案温带气旋集合预报方法具有较好的业务预报应用前景。  相似文献   

11.
The three-dimensional structure of two potential mesoscale upwelling areas that are located in the external waters of the Philippine archipelago (i.e. northwest of Luzon and east of Mindanao) were constructed by analysis of historical data. A unique characteristic of both upwelling sites is that they can be identified by their anomalously cold subsurface temperatures rather than sea surface temperature distributions. As such, they cannot be observed in sea surface temperature fields derived by satellite imagery. The data used in the analysis were obtained from the National Oceanographic Data Center hydrographic database. Objective analysis was performed to produce monthly temperature fields at several standard depths within the upper 500 m of the region 0–30°N and 100–140°E with a horizontal grid resolution of 0.5°. The extent and timing of these upwelling areas are described. A review of existing hypothesis on the mechanisms for their evolution and seasonal modulation are presented. The change in heat content during the upwelling season is greater than 300 W m−2 in both areas. Based on the excursion of isotherms, vertical velocities of 83 cm day−1 and 26 cm day−1 were obtained for upwelling northwest of Luzon and east of Mindanao, respectively.  相似文献   

12.
In the southern Arabian Sea (between the Equator and 10°N), the shoaling of isotherms at subsurface levels (20 °C isotherm depth is located at ∼90 m) leads to cooling at 100 m by 2–3 °C relative to surrounding waters during the winter monsoon. The annual and interannual variations of this upwelling zone, which we call the Arabian Sea dome (ASD), are studied using results from an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model in conjunction with hydrography and TOPEX/ERS altimeter data. The ASD first appears in the southeastern Arabian Sea during September–October, maturing during November–December to extend across the entire southern Arabian Sea (along ∼5°N). It begins to weaken in January and dissipates by March in the southwestern Arabian Sea. From the analysis of heat-budget balance terms and a pair of model control experiments, it is shown that the local Ekman upwelling induced by the positive wind-stress curl of the winter monsoon generates the ASD in the southeastern Arabian Sea. The ASD decays due to the weakening of the cyclonic curl of the wind and the westward penetration of warm water from the east (Southern Arabian Sea High). The interannual variation of the ASD is governed by variations in the Ekman upwelling induced by the cyclonic wind-stress curl. Associated with the unusual winds during 1994–1995 and 1997–1998 Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) periods, the ASD failed to develop. In the absence of the ASD during the IOD events, the 20 °C isotherm depth was 20–30 m deeper than normal in the southern Arabian Sea resulting in a temperature increase at 97 m of 4–5 °C. An implication is that the SST evolution in the southern Arabian Sea during the winter monsoon is primarily controlled by advective cooling: the shoaling of isotherms associated with the ASD leads to SST cooling.  相似文献   

13.
9316号台风风暴潮数值预报和模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
本文给出了一次袭击珠江口三角洲地区强风暴潮过程的数值预报和模拟结果。结果表明模式对强台风风暴潮有相当强的预报能力，作者指出局地地形对风暴潮影响的重要性，并展望了未来数值预报技术的发展前景。  相似文献   

14.
Accurate water levels modeling and prediction is essential for safety of coastal navigation and other maritime applications. Water levels modeling and prediction is traditionally developed using the least-squares-based harmonic analysis method that estimates the harmonic constituents from the measured water levels. If long water level measurements are not obtained from the tide gauge, accurate water levels prediction cannot be estimated. To overcome the above limitations, the current state-of-the-art artificial neural network has recently been developed for water levels prediction from short water level measurements. However, a highly nonlinear and efficient wavelet network model is proposed and developed in this paper for water levels modeling and prediction using short water level measurements. Water level measurements (about one month and a week) from six different tide gauges are employed to develop the proposed model and investigate the atmospheric changes effect. It is shown that the majority of error values, the differences between water level measurements and the modeled and predicted values, fall within the −5 cm and +5 cm range and root-mean-squared (RMS) errors fall within 1–6 cm range. A comparison between the developed highly nonlinear wavelet network model and the harmonic analysis method and the artificial neural networks shows that the RMS of the developed wavelet network model when compared with the RMS of the harmonic analysis method is reduced by about 70% and when compared with the RMS of the artificial neural networks is reduced by about 22%. It is also worth noting that if the atmospheric changes effect (meteorological effect) of the air pressure, the air temperature, the relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction are considered, the performance accuracy of the developed wavelet network model is improved by about 20% (based on the estimated RMS values).  相似文献   

15.
Using NCEP short range ensemble forecast（SREF） system,demonstrated two fundamental on-going evolutions in numerical weather prediction（NWP） are through ensemble methodology.One evolution is the shift from traditional single-value deterministic forecast to flow-dependent（not statistical） probabilistic forecast to address forecast uncertainty.Another is from a one-way observation-prediction system shifting to an interactive two-way observation-prediction system to increase predictability of a weather system.In the first part,how ensemble spread from NCEP SREF predicting ensemble-mean forecast error was evaluated over a period of about a month.The result shows that the current capability of predicting forecast error by the 21-member NCEP SREF has reached to a similar or even higher level than that of current state-of-the-art NWP models in predicting precipitation,e.g.,the spatial correlation between ensemble spread and absolute forecast error has reached 0.5 or higher at 87 h（3.5 d） lead time on average for some meteorological variables.This demonstrates that the current operational ensemble system has already had preliminary capability of predicting the forecast error with usable skill,which is a remarkable achievement as of today.Given the good spread-skill relation,the probability derived from the ensemble was also statistically reliable,which is the most important feature a useful probabilistic forecast should have.The second part of this research tested an ensemble-based interactive targeting（E-BIT） method.Unlike other mathematically-calculated objective approaches,this method is subjective or human interactive based on information from an ensemble of forecasts.A numerical simulation study was performed to eight real atmospheric cases with a 10-member,bred vector-based mesoscale ensemble using the NCEP regional spectral model（RSM,a sub-component of NCEP SREF） to prove the concept of this E-BIT method.The method seems to work most effective for basic atmospheric state variables,moderately effective for convective instabilities and least effective for precipitations.Precipitation is a complex result of many factors and,therefore,a more challenging field to be improved by targeted observation.  相似文献   

16.
Long-period oscillations of moored ships whose periods are about 1 or 2 min cause many troubles in many ports and harbours. It is necessary to investigate these phenomena and verify their causes and countermeasures in each case because they are strongly dependent on the environment of each port and harbour. From this point of view, long-period oscillations of moored ships in the Port of Shibushi in Japan were investigated by means of wave observations, the image processing of moored ship motions using the video camera and motion-capture software and numerical simulations. From observation results, the relationship between offshore long-period waves and long-period oscillations of moored ships was recognized and surge and heave amplitudes were quantified by using wave data in order to forecast moored ship motions. Furthermore, from observation and numerical results, it was revealed that long-period waves with the peak period of 120 s from the offshore typhoon kept or exaggerated the local harbour oscillation of 60–70 s and it caused long-period oscillations of moored ships. Numerical results in case of reducing the reflection coefficient of the target berth implied that it ceased the local harbour oscillation and it would give an effective countermeasure to reduce long-period oscillations of moored ships in the Port of Shibushi.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper we present a process-based numerical model for the prediction of storm hydrodynamics and hydrology on gravel beaches. The model comprises an extension of an existing open-source storm-impact model for sandy coasts (XBeach), through the application of (1) a non-hydrostatic pressure correction term that allows wave-by-wave modelling of the surface elevation and depth-averaged flow, and (2) a groundwater model that allows infiltration and exfiltration through the permeable gravel bed to be simulated, and is referred to as XBeach-G. Although the model contains validated sediment transport relations for sandy environments, transport relations for gravel in the model are currently under development and unvalidated. Consequently, all simulations in this paper are carried out without morphodynamic feedback. Modelled hydrodynamics are validated using data collected during a large-scale physical model experiment and detailed in-situ field data collected at Loe Bar, Cornwall, UK, as well as remote-sensed data collected at four gravel beach locations along the UK coast during the 2012–2013 storm season. Validation results show that the model has good skill in predicting wave transformation (overall SCI 0.14–0.21), run-up levels (SCI < 0.12; median error < 10%) and initial wave overtopping (85–90% prediction rate at barrier crest), indicating that the model can be applied to estimate potential storm impact on gravel beaches. The inclusion of the non-hydrostatic pressure correction term and groundwater model is shown to significantly improve the prediction and evolution of overtopping events.  相似文献   

18.
The lithogenic flux of sediment trap material was analyzed from a three year time series (February 2002–March 2005) at 2000 m depth in the Northeast Atlantic (Kiel 276, 33°N, 22°W) with regards to the seasonal and interannual variability of flux intensity and mineralogy—by applying an automated particle SEM-EDX analysis (scanning electron microscope-energy dispersive X-ray analysis). The lithogenic flux shows strong interannual variations with highest lithogenic flux rates occurring during January–February and April–March coupled to the total particle flux. Mean lithogenic flux rates for the sample years are 7.1 (2002–2003), 5.1 (2003–2004) and 16.1 mg m?2 d?1 (2004–2005). Mineral assemblages from the three sample years reveal distinct major minerals related to specific source regions. Clay minerals dominate the lithogenic fraction within the years 2002 and 2004 with illite (2002–2003) and palygorskite (2003–2004) being the major clay minerals. During the year 2004–2005, quartz is the major lithogenic mineral accompanied by smectite. The mineral assemblages hint to a mixture of North African source areas with dominant sources in Mauritania and north western parts of NW Africa for the years 2002–2004 and central Sahara (Algeria–Mali) within the year 2004–2005.  相似文献   

19.
Ten-month time series of mean volume backscattering strength (MVBS) and vertical velocity obtained from three moored acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) deployed from February until December 2005 at 64°S, 66.5°S and 69°S along the Greenwich Meridian were used to analyse the diel vertical zooplankton migration (DVM) and its seasonality and regional variability in the Lazarev Sea. The estimated MVBS exhibited distinct patterns of DVM at all three mooring sites. Between February and October, the timing of the DVM and the residence time of zooplankton at depth were clearly governed by the day–night rhythm. Mean daily cycles of the ADCP-derived vertical velocity were calculated for successive months and showed maximum ascent and descent velocities of 16 and –15 mm s?1. However, a change of the MVBS pattern occurred in late spring/early austral summer (October/November), when the zooplankton communities ceased their synchronous vertical migration at all three mooring sites. Elevated MVBS values were then concentrated in the uppermost layers (<50 m) at 66.5°S. This period coincided with the decay of sea ice coverage at 64°S and 66.5°S between early November and mid-December. Elevated chlorophyll concentrations, which were measured at the end of the deployment, extended from 67°S to 65°S and indicated a phytoplankton bloom in the upper 50 m. Thus, we propose that the increased food supply associated with an ice edge bloom caused the zooplankton communities to cease their DVM in favour of feeding.  相似文献   

20.
《Ocean Modelling》2011,36(4):314-331
Hurricane-induced storm surge, waves, and coastal inundation in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico region during Hurricane Ivan in 2004 are simulated using a fine grid coastal surge model CH3D (Curvilinear-grid Hydrodynamics in 3D) coupled to a coastal wave model SWAN, with open boundary conditions provided by a basin-scale surge model ADCIRC (Advanced CIRCulation) and a basin-scale wave model WW3 (WaveWatch-III). The H1wind, a reanalysis 10-m wind produced by the NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and a relatively simple analytical wind model are used, incorporating the effect of land dissipation on hurricane wind. Detailed comparison shows good agreement between the simulated and measured wind, waves, surge, and high water marks. Coastal storm surge along the coast is around 2–3 m, while peak surge on the order of 3.5 m is found near Pensacola, which is slightly to the east of the landfall location on Dauphin Island. Wind waves reach 20 m at the Mobile South station (National Data Buoy Center buoy 42040) on the shelf and 2 m inside the Pensacola/Escambia Bay. Model results show that wave-induced surge (total surge subtracted by the meteorologically-induced surge due to wind and pressure) accounts for 20–30% of the peak surge, while errors of the simulated surge and waves are generally within 10% of measured data. The extent of the simulated inundation region is increased when the effects of waves are included. Surge elevations simulated by the 3D model are generally up to 15% higher than that by the 2D model, and the effects of waves are more pronounced in the 3D results. The 3D model results inside the Pensacola/Escambia Bay show significant vertical variation in the horizontal currents. While the estuary has little impact on the surge elevation along the open coastal water, surge at the head of Escambia Bay is more than 50% higher than that at the open coast with 1.5 h delay.  相似文献   

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