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海洋表层温度对台风"蔷薇"路径和强度预测精度的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于中尺度大气模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model),首先对2007年3次船舶辐射通量观测进行模拟,以检验WRF对长波和短波辐射通量的模拟能力,结果表明使用中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统环流模式POM(Princeton Ocean Model)模拟的高时空分辨率的海洋表层温度能够显著改进短波辐射通量的模拟,而对长波辐射通量模拟的改进不明显。然后,将业务化运行的中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统后报的逐时海洋表面温度(SST)作为WRF底边界条件,对2008年15号强台风"蔷薇"(Jangmi)过程进行了数值后报试验。结果表明,与使用NCEP/NCAR的SST试验后报的台风中心位置偏差相比,使用高时空分辨率的SST能够较为显著地改善"蔷薇"的路径模拟,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少11%,尤其在台风减弱阶段,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少37%。台风强度在台风发展的不同阶段对下垫面SST的变化敏感性不同。台风路径附近的海表面温度下降会导致海洋向大气输送的热量减少从而减弱台风强度。 相似文献
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基于中尺度大气模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model),首先对2007年3次船舶辐射通量观测进行模拟,以检验WRF对长波和短波辐射通量的模拟能力,结果表明使用中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统环流模式POM(Princeton Ocean Model)模拟的高时空分辨率的海洋表层温度能够显著改进短波辐射通量的模拟,而对长波辐射通量模拟的改进不明显。然后,将业务化运行的中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统后报的逐时海洋表面温度(SST)作为WRF底边界条件,对2008年15号强台风"蔷薇"(Jangmi)过程进行了数值后报试验。结果表明,与使用NCEP/NCAR的SST试验后报的台风中心位置偏差相比,使用高时空分辨率的SST能够较为显著地改善"蔷薇"的路径模拟,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少11%,尤其在台风减弱阶段,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少37%。台风强度在台风发展的不同阶段对下垫面SST的变化敏感性不同。台风路径附近的海表面温度下降会导致海洋向大气输送的热量减少从而减弱台风强度。 相似文献
4.
The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low. 相似文献
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M.A. Burford D.M. Alongi A.D. McKinnon L.A. Trott 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,79(3):440-448
Tropical estuaries are under increasing pressure worldwide from human impacts, but are poorly studied compared with temperate systems. This study examined a tropical macrotidal estuary, Darwin Harbour, in northern Australia, using a combination of direct measurements and literature values to determine the main sources of primary production and the sources of nutrients supporting growth. The main source of primary production was calculated to be the extensive area of fringing mangroves and resulted in a net autotrophic system (PG:R = 2.1). Much of the carbon in the mangrove forests appears to be retained within the forests or respired, as the water column was also net autotrophic despite the carbon inputs. Phytoplankton were the second largest primary producer on a whole-of-harbour basis, with low biomass constrained by light and nutrient availability. The phytoplankton were likely to be nitrogen (N) limited, based on low N:phosphorus (P) ratios, low dissolved bioavailable N concentrations (ammonium (NH4+), nitrate (NO3−), urea), and evidence that phytoplankton growth in bioassays was stimulated by NH4+ addition. The largest new source of N to the system was from the ocean due to higher N concentrations in the incoming tides than the outgoing tides. Atmospheric inputs via N fixation on the intertidal mudflats and subtidal sediments were substantially lower. The rivers feeding into the harbour and sewage were minor N inputs. Nitrogen demand by primary producers was high relative to available N inputs, suggesting that N recycling within the water column and mangrove forests must be important processes. Darwin Harbour is adjacent to the rapidly growing urban area of Darwin city, but overall there is no evidence of anthropogenic nutrient inputs having substantial effects on primary production in Darwin Harbour. 相似文献
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用于海洋环境科学的一种新方法--影响因子分析法 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
用影响因子法对象山港海域叶绿素a与海水理化因子之间关系分析,结果表明：水温、溶解氧(DO)、气温、盐度、化学耗氧量(COD)因子为叶绿素a浓度变化的重要有效影响因子,其中水温、溶解氧因子占主导地位。由于该海域的富营养化,N、P和Si营养盐已经不再是影响浮游植物生长的有效因子。在特定海域资料有限的情况下,影响因子法比普通的相关和灰色系统分析更具有透明性,能够有效剔除无效因子,定量表达各理化因子对叶绿素a的影响程度。用影响因子法可以明确地判断出特定海域各海水理化因子对叶绿素a影响的主次程度及其有效性,从而定量确定出影响叶绿素a浓度的主要因子。 相似文献
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Yu. P. Solov'ev 《Physical Oceanography》1990,1(3):193-201
A method applied for the determination of the statistical characteristics of the wind wave envelope is considered. It is shown that the correlation function envelope for a normal random process defines the basic properties of the process envelope and it can be expressed through the spectrum width. No limitations are imposed on the form or the width of the spectrum. The model is effective for a developing and steady sea disturbance when the attenuation of the temporal correlation function can be approximated by an exponent. Numerical computations and experimental results for typical cases of sea disturbance are compared.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov. 相似文献
8.
Seonghun Kim Kyounghoon Lee Won Duk Yoon Hyungbeen Lee Kangseok Hwang 《Ocean Science Journal》2016,51(1):59-65
Nemopilema nomurai jellyfish, which are believed to complete their development in the East China Sea, have started migrating into the Yellow Sea in recent years. We obtained biomass estimates of this species in the Yellow Sea using bottom trawl fishing gear and sighting surveys over a 5-year period. These methods are effective for obtaining N. nomurai jellyfish density estimates and information about the community distribution near the bottom or surface of the sea. To verify the vertical distributions of giant jellyfish between, we used hydroacoustic equipment, including an optical stereo camera system attached to a towed sledge and an echo counting method with scientific echosounder system. Acoustic and optical data were collected while the vessel moved at 3 knots, from which the distribution and density of N. nomurai jellyfish were analyzed. Subsequently, the camera system was towed from a 7 m mean depth to sea level, with the detection range of the acoustic system extending from an 8 m depth to the bottom surface. The optical and acoustic methods indicated the presence of vertical distribution of 0.113 (inds/m3) and 0.064 (inds/m3), respectively. However, the vertical distribution indicated that around 93% of individuals occurred at a depth range of 10–40 m; thus, a 2.4-fold greater density was estimated by acoustic echo counting compared to the optical method. 相似文献
9.
In general, neighboring vertical datums can be compared directly at one or more common points on the border between the datums. This direct method requires leveling and gravity measurements. Such a direct connection is not possible if the datums are separated by an ocean or another body of water. Then a rigorous mathematical model, an indirect approach, may be useful. In order to connect regional vertical datums, a rigorous mathematical model is derived based on a method by Rummel and Teunissen. In this study, two vertical datums are connected indirectly by means of a combination of precise geocentric positions of tide gauge sites and their geoid heights in one geocentric coordinate system and their height values in the respective height datums. This method is used to connect the Swedish and the Finnish height systems. The difference between Swedish RH70 and the Finnish N60 height systems is estimated to —12.1±2.7 cm. The results are mostly in good agreement with those of the direct approach by Sjöberg and by Ekman and the indirect approach by Pan and Sjöberg. 相似文献
10.
Comparing to single BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) Precise Point Positioning (PPP), a method which can more quicklydetermine the ambiguity parameters of BDS through applying the contribution of GPS observations is proposed and analyzed in this article. The numerical examples and analysis show that the ionosphere-free ambiguities of BDS satellites can be determined and converged more quickly because of the contribution of GPS observations. The average improvement of the convergent speed of positioning is 18.5% and its positioning accuracy in N, E, and U components are improved by 29.4, 30.3, and 34.4%, respectively, with the contribution of the a priori coordinates obtained from GPS observations. This method is useful for single BDS system positioning when there is a priori information provided by GPS or other sensors which be replaced by and can be applied at the beginning of the computation. 相似文献
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In this study, a reliability index vector formula is proposed for series system with two failure modes in term of the concept of reliability index vector and equivalent failure modes. Firstly, the reliability index vector is introduced to determine the correlation coefficient between two failure modes, and then, the reliability index vector of a series system can be obtained. Several numerical cases and an analysis on offshore platform are performed, and the results show that this scheme provided here has better computational accuracy, and its calculation process is simpler for the series systems reliability calculations compared with the other methods. Also this scheme is more convenient for the engineering applications. 相似文献
12.
基于粗糙集理论的船舶"三漏"故障诊断 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
故障诊断是与有效决策密切相关的复杂问题。粗糙集理论可以有效地分析、处理不完备信息。应用粗糙集理论挖掘工具,对故障信息系统“约简”,在故障诊断系统中提取最小诊断条件集,可为设备维护人员提供快捷、有效的诊断依据。对“三漏”问题中机械装配不当故障诊断作了实例分析。 相似文献
13.
In this study, a reliability index vector formula is proposed for series system with two failure modes in term of the concept of reliability index vector and equivalent failure modes. Firstly, the reliability index vector is introduced to determine the correlation coefficient between two failure modes, and then, the reliability index vector of a series system can be obtained. Several numerical cases and an analysis on offshore platform are performed, and the results show that this scheme provided here has better computational accuracy, and its calculation process is simpler for the series systems reliability calculations compared with the other methods. Also this scheme is more convenient for the engineering applications. 相似文献
14.
Rachel Marie Wilson Jeffrey Chanton Graham Lewis Douglas Nowacek 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009
Stable isotope analyses were conducted on fish and crabs in Apalachicola Bay, Florida (USA) to determine whether δ15N values are correlated with length within these species. Our objective was to define the smallest trophic unit of the system as a prelude to further isotopic evaluations of consumer trophic level in Apalachicola Bay. In some cases, the smallest trophic unit is the individual species; however, previous gut content analysis on organisms in this system indicated that subdivision by size class within species might be required. However, over the size ranges observed, there was no systematic change in the δ15N values of individual consumers. Analysis of the δ13C and δ34S values of these species reveal no obvious shifts in the utilization of organic matter sources with length that could be obscuring a trend in the δ15N signal. We find no isotopic evidence for a systematic trophic level increase within the species examined over the size ranges observed in this estuary. These results indicate that species rather than size class is the best predictor of trophic habit among these Apalachicola Bay consumers. 相似文献
15.
P. J. Wingham 《Ocean Engineering》1977,4(2):57-74
The relationship between the depth and trail attained by a towed submerged vehicle and the magnitude and direction of the forces on it has been examined theoretically, for cases involving faired cables.It is shown that when the body force is varied the body in equilibrium moves on an almost circular path as if the cable were straight, and that depth changes depend primarily upon the change in the component of the body force that acts at right angles to the line joining the top and bottom of the cable.Examples are given which demonstrate that for bodies towed at large depression angles the use of water brakes is more effective in changing depth than the use of lifting wings.The data is presented so that a rapid preliminary assessment can be made of any proposed system to obtain the best combination of speed and scope for achieving a given depth with a body having known lift and drag coefficients. 相似文献
16.
A numerical model for coastal water wave motion that includes an effective method for treatment of non-reflecting boundaries is presented. The second-order one-way wave equation to approximate the non-reflecting boundary condition is found to be excellent and it ensures a very low level of reflection for waves approaching the boundary at a fairly wide range of the incidence angle. If the Newman approximation is adopted, the resulting boundary condition has a unique property to allow the free propagation of wave components along the boundary. The study is also based on a newly derived mild-slope wave equation system that can be easily made compatible to the one-way wave equation. The equation system is theoretically more accurate than the previous equations in terms of the mild-slope assumption. The finite difference method defined on a staggered grid is employed to solve the basic equations and to implement the non-reflecting boundary condition. For verification, the numerical model is then applied to three coastal water wave problems including the classical problem of plane wave diffraction by a vertical circular cylinder, the problem of combined wave diffraction and refraction over a submerged hump in the open sea, and the wave deformation around a detached breakwater. In all cases, the numerical results are demonstrated to agree very well with the relevant analytical solutions or with experimental data. It is thus concluded that the numerical model proposed in this study is effective and advantageous. 相似文献
17.
为给海湾扇贝的细胞免疫学研究提供基本依据,同时采用光镜和电镜技术观察海湾扇贝血细胞的形态特征,并进行血细胞酸性磷酸酶活性的初步分析.结果表明,海湾扇贝的血细胞可分为透明细胞和颗粒细胞2种类型.与透明细胞相比,颗粒细胞数目多,酸性磷酸酶活性高,细胞核呈肾形或卵圆形,核质比低,细胞质内颗粒状物质丰富,颗粒大小不一,可明显分为大颗粒细胞和小颗粒细胞2类.这些特征表明,海湾扇贝颗粒细胞和透明细胞的免疫学功能是明显不同的. 相似文献
18.
基于微控制器(MCU)设计了一个通用的四维混沌系统数字硬件实验电路,由此实现了9×7网格涡卷的混沌和超混沌吸引子的生成.本文基于由Colpitts振荡器模型延伸出的四维多涡卷超混沌系统,通过引入单位锯齿波函数替换原系统中的三角波函数,构建了一个便于MCU数字硬件实现的新的网格涡卷超混沌系统,并对新系统网格涡卷吸引子的形成机理进行了分析和数值仿真.通过采用Euler算法对新系统进行离散化,在实验电路的有效动态范围内可以生成比原系统更多网格涡卷数量的吸引子.实验结果有效验证了本文基于MCU实现的网格涡卷超混沌 相似文献
19.
Lars H&#;ggmark Karl&#;Ivar Ivarsson Stefan Gollvik Per&#;Olof Olofsson 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2000,52(1):2-20
A system for mesoscale analyses of selected variables has been developed. The analysed parameters are of general interest in operational weather forecasting, but normally not available from NWP systems, or available, but with a significantly lower quality than achieved by the mesoscale analysis system. A supplementary objective is to produce initial information to be used for now-casting techniques. Examples of parameters are precipitation, temperature, humidity, visibility, wind and clouds. The basis of the analysis system is the optimal interpolation technique (OI). The use of observations from automatic stations, radars and satellites have been investigated. The investigation indicates that a dense network of ordinary precipitation gauge measurements can produce more accurate analyses than more elaborate systems like radar that suffers from anomalous echoes and other errors. 相似文献
20.
The vertical structure of the atmospheric boundary layer over the central Arctic Ocean 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The tropopause height and the atmospheric boundarylayer （PBL） height as well as the variation of inversion layer above the floating ice surface are presented using GPS （global position system ） radiosonde sounding data and relevant data obtained by Chinas fourth arctic scientific expedition team over the central Arctic Ocean （86°-88°N, 144°-170°W） during the summer of 2010. The tropopause height is from 9.8 to 10.5 km, with a temperature range between -52.2 and -54.10C in the central Arctic Ocean. Two zones of maximum wind （over 12 m/s） are found in the wind profile, namely, low- and upper-level jets, located in the middle troposphere and the tropopause, respectively. The wind direction has a marked variation point in the two jets from the southeast to the southwest. The average PBL height determined by two methods is 341 and 453 m respectively. These two methods can both be used when the inversion layer is very low, but the results vary significantly when the inversion layer is very high. A significant logarithmic relationship exists between the PBL height and the inversion intensity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.66, indicating that the more intense the temperature inversion is, the lower the boundary layer will be. The observation results obviously differ from those of the third arctic expedition zone （800-85° N）. The PBL height and the inversion layer thickness are much lower than those at 870-88° N, but the inversion temperature is more intense, meaning a strong ice- atmosphere interaction in the sea near the North Pole. The PBL structure is related to the weather system and the sea ice concentration, which affects the observation station. 相似文献