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1.
Dongchuan City is highly threatened by debris-flow disasters originating from Shengou gully, a typical debris-flow gully along
Xiaojiang River in Yunnan Province (Kang et al. 2004). Shengou gully is studied, and a hazard assessment with numerical simulation is developed using ArcGIS 9.2 software. Debris-flow
numerical simulation is an important method for predicting debris-flow inundation regions, zoning debris-flow risks, and helping
in the design of debris-flow control works. Meanwhile, vulnerability measurement is essential for hazard and risk research.
Based on the self-organized map neural network method, we combine the six vulnerability indicators to create an integrated
debris-flow vulnerability map that depicts the vulnerability levels of Dongchuan City in Shengou Basin. Based on the risk
assessment (including hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment), we adopt the principal–agent theory and use the risk
degree of debris flows as an important index to build the insurance model and analyze the insurance premium of debris-flow
disasters in Dongchuan City. This paper discusses the model and mechanism of property insurance in debris-flow risk regions
and aims to provide technical support for insurance companies to participate in disaster prevention and reduction. 相似文献
2.
本文在阐述地面沉降风险基本内涵基础上,以北京市为例,介绍了地面沉降风险评价的三大要素：易发性、危险性及易损性。详细说明了地面沉降风险评价的评价体系、评价指标及评价方法及过程。以地面沉降风险评价结果为基础,结合北京市目前地面沉降防治工作体系,将地面沉降风险评价与地面沉降防治管理主体相结合,提出了各个防治区的地面沉降防治工作重点。 相似文献
3.
探讨了城市泥石流风险评价的系统方法,该方法包括泥石流扇形地危险区划、城市易损性分析和城市泥石流风险评价三个主要内容。泥石流堆积扇危险区划是基于数值模拟计算出的泥深和流速分布图进行叠合完成的。以美国高分辨率的“快鸟”卫星影像为数据源,完成了研究区的城市土地覆盖类型遥感解译,在此基础上完成了城市泥石流易损性分析,应用地理信息系统提供的统计和分析工具,完成了研究区泥石流风险评价。该风险区划图可用于指导对泥石流易泛区的不同风险地带的土地利用进行规划和决策,从而达到规避和减轻灾害的目的,也为生活在泥石流危险区的城市居民提供有关灾害风险信息,以作避难和灾害防治的依据。 相似文献
4.
平原区超采地下水引发的地面沉降地质灾害已成为影响这些地区经济可持续发展的重要因素,风险管理是实现灾害防治从被动应对向主动防御转变的标志。根据地面沉降地质灾害自身特点,从其易发性、易损性和抗风险能力三方面进行分析评价,初步构建了地面沉降风险评价指标体系,介绍了常用的数学模型方法和空间分析技术,最后以苏锡常地区为例进行了实例研究。结果表明,决定当前地面沉降区风险分布的首要因素是地区经济发展水平,就相同级别的地面沉降而言,其对经济发达地区所造成的侵害要高于经济欠发达地区;其次才是地面沉降灾害发生程度。由此建议加大抗灾投入,增强区域风险抵御能力。 相似文献
5.
昆明市东川区是我国最著名的泥石流分布区。基于社会经济发展的需要,联系泥石流研究的相关理论成果,使用泥石流危险性评价模型,结合GIS软件对昆明市东川区泥石流进行危险性评价,得出了昆明市东川区各乡镇的泥石流危险度。易损性评价是泥石流灾害风险性评价的一部分,根据每个乡镇的经济、人口等指标结合国内有关易损性的理论,建立东川区的泥石流易损性评价模型,从而对东川区以各乡镇为单位进行了易损性评价,得出了各乡镇的易损度。有了易损度和风险度,利用联合国提出的自然灾害风险表达式两项相乘得出了东川区的风险度。最后,使用ARCGIS9.0的制图输出功能,对该区域的泥石流风险性进行了分区和制图,给出了昆明市东川区泥石流风险性评价图,使该地区的泥石流风险性评价有了新的以乡镇为单元的量化指标,更好的服务于当地防灾减灾和经济社会建设。 相似文献
6.
鲁南经济带内矿产资源及地下水资源非常丰富,长期大量开采引发的环境地质问题主要有采空塌陷、岩溶塌陷、地面沉降、地下水降落漏斗及海水入侵等。选取地形地貌、岩土体特征、水文地质条件、环境工程地质问题、地质资源和人类工程经济活动等17个评价因子,利用傅勒三角形法确定各评价因子的权重,采用专家聚类法评价地质环境脆弱性。选取重点城市所在评价单元的土壤环境质量(T)、工程地质环境(G)、地质灾害危险性(Z)和地质环境承载力(C)等4个评价因子,采用栅格叠图法对重点城市适宜性进行了评价。评价结果显示,全区可划分为地质环境脆弱性极高区、高区、中等区和低区共4个区,菏泽市、临沂市处于地质环境脆弱性高区,济宁市、枣庄市及日照市位于地质环境脆弱性中等区。地质环境适宜性综合评价显示5个重点城市均为基本适宜,其中枣庄市西城区为适宜。 相似文献
7.
D. F. Hamamin R. A. Qadir S. S. Ali A. P. Bosch 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2018,15(1):173-184
Fresh groundwater from intergranular and carbonate aquifers are considered as the valuable resources for domestic, agricultural and industrial water supplies of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. A comprehensive approach to groundwater protection using the intrinsic vulnerability, hazard and risk intensity mapping was proposed by the European COST Action 620. The current article applied all the components of the above mentioned Pan-European approach to assess the risk harmfulness in the Sulaimani sub-basin by combining hydrogeological parameters using the DRASTIC system and the hazard components by taking the product of the weighted hazard value (HI), the ranking factor (Qn) and the reduction factor (Rf). The hazard map was constructed from twenty-six hazard feature types of the point, line and polygon. Their distributions, extents and of harmfulness degrees vary sharply from one place to another. Results of the risk intensity map divided the area into five classes as “no or very low, low, moderate, high and very high” risk zones. Fortunately, the majority of the area of interest is classified as very low to low contamination potential due to the limited impact of hazards as well as low groundwater vulnerabilities. The zones with moderate-risk potentials clustered in industrialized areas. 相似文献
8.
基于地下水模型的岩溶塌陷风险性评价方法在临沂市城区的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
岩溶塌陷是山东省临沂市区最重要的地质灾害类型,一旦发生,会带来较大的经济和财产损失,因此对岩溶塌陷的风险评价十分必要。风险评价包括现状评价和预测评价,主要分3个步骤来完成：危险性评价,易损性评价和期望损失评价。利用地下水流模型确定调采方案下的相关评价因子,预测了岩溶塌陷的风险性。通过比较发现,经过地下水调采后,原岩溶塌陷高风险区范围大为缩小。地下水流数值模型和风险评价方法结合,可以确定合理的岩溶水规划开采方案,对于指导和防治岩溶塌陷具有重要意义。 相似文献
9.
地质灾害风险评估对地质灾害的防治与管理具有重要意义。绥德县城区地处陕北黄土高原腹地, 沟壑纵横, 地形切割强烈, 地质灾害多发。为了评估绥德县城区地质灾害风险, 将城区周边斜坡地带共划分为1050个斜坡单元, 计算每个斜坡单元在不同含水量工况下的稳定性, 并结合土体含水量监测数据评估斜坡单元危险性。在此基础上, 利用1︰1万遥感数据识别斜坡单元内的承灾体, 并进行易损性分析和危害性评估。根据危险性和危害性评估结果, 完成绥德县城区及周边地区基于斜坡单元的地质灾害风险评估。评估结果表明, 绥德县城区及周边地区很高风险区面积2.27 km2, 包含斜坡段106个; 高风险区面积3.03 km2, 包含斜坡段114个; 中风险区面积10.40 km2, 包含斜坡段362个; 低风险区面积12.81 km2, 包含斜坡段468个。 相似文献
10.
Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping of the Hajeb-jelma aquifer (Central Tunisia) using a GIS-based DRASTIC model 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
The aim of this study is to elaborate a synthetic document for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution in the Hajeb-Jelma aquifer. The specific object is to incorporate the Geographical Information System (GIS) to generate groundwater vulnerability and risk maps with DRASTIC model. Indeed, GIS could help to make the results of a complicated model more clear through visual representation, providing an applicable tool for decision makers. The vulnerability map of Hajeb-Jelma watershed shows three classes: moderate, high and very high depending on the intrinsic properties. The risk map shows a very high risk dependant on hydrogeological characteristics, land use and human impacts in major part of the Hajeb-Jelma region. These maps could serve as a scientific basis for sustainable land use planning and groundwater management in the Hajeb-Jelma region. 相似文献
11.
The Alburni massif (1742m a.s.l.) stretches NW–SE, about 23km long and 9–10km wide, covering 246km2 with an average elevation of about 940m a.s.l. This massif, with more than 500 caves, is the most important karst area in southern Italy. The karst channel network is hierarchically organized: some channels feed a major spring (1m3/s) with a very short transit time while others communicate directly with the basal water table related to other springs (Q > 3m3/s).There are several dolines and swallow holes just above the basal water table and in the urbanized areas; for years a swallow hole directly transferred pollutants into the aquifer. The contamination vulnerability map shows that the prevalent vulnerability degree ranges from high to very high, due to the widespread karstification of the area and to the presence, on the plateau, of large vegetated areas with gentle slopes favouring fast infiltration.Hence it is important to ascertain the human impact on the area and the consequent contamination risk of the aquifer of the Alburni karst area. Three main layers were created to assess groundwater contamination risk: the vulnerability map, the hazard map, and the value map.The groundwater contamination risk map stresses the importance in a park area of aquifer vulnerability, which strongly influences the risk: indeed, the prevalent moderate degree of risk in the final map depends on the high vulnerability and the low hazard degree. However, in the future it is crucial to take into account the nature of the agricultural land use allowed in the park, which could increase the hazard degree and consequently the risk degree. 相似文献
12.
海岸带位于海陆交互地带,其独特的地理、地质和环境条件导致其灾害地质现象发育,地质灾害易发性和危险性高。考虑到海岸带的重要经济和社会属性,开展海岸带的地质灾害风险评价显得极为重要。本文首先建立了基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地质灾害风险评价模型,结合网络层次分析法(ANP)确定模糊贝叶斯网络的条件概率,并简化了贝叶斯网络的结构图谱。在此基础上,以辽东半岛东部海岸带作为研究区,以崩塌、滑坡、地面塌陷、海岸侵蚀和海水入侵等5个主要地质灾害类型作为评价对象,开展了基于ANP-模糊贝叶斯网络模型的地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险性评价,并编制了综合地质灾害风险分布图;结果显示,区内高、较高风险区主要分布于研究区的西南部海岸带,面积为249km2,约占全区面积的9.1%。研究成果可为海岸带国土资源开发、经济建设规划、防灾减灾救灾等提供重要参考,对同类地区的海岸带地质灾害风险评价具有一定借鉴意义。 相似文献
13.
Ratiranjan Jena Biswajeet Pradhan Ghassan Beydoun Nizamuddin Ardiansyah Hizir Sofyan Muzailin Affan 《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,(2):613-634
Catastrophic natural hazards,such as earthquake,pose serious threats to properties and human lives in urban areas.Therefore,earthquake risk assessment(ERA)is indispensable in disaster management.ERA is an integration of the extent of probability and vulnerability of assets.This study develops an integrated model by using the artificial neural network–analytic hierarchy process(ANN–AHP)model for constructing the ERA map.The aim of the study is to quantify urban population risk that may be caused by impending earthquakes.The model is applied to the city of Banda Aceh in Indonesia,a seismically active zone of Aceh province frequently affected by devastating earthquakes.ANN is used for probability mapping,whereas AHP is used to assess urban vulnerability after the hazard map is created with the aid of earthquake intensity variation thematic layering.The risk map is subsequently created by combining the probability,hazard,and vulnerability maps.Then,the risk levels of various zones are obtained.The validation process reveals that the proposed model can map the earthquake probability based on historical events with an accuracy of 84%.Furthermore,results show that the central and southeastern regions of the city have moderate to very high risk classifications,whereas the other parts of the city fall under low to very low earthquake risk classifications.The findings of this research are useful for government agencies and decision makers,particularly in estimating risk dimensions in urban areas and for the future studies to project the preparedness strategies for Banda Aceh. 相似文献
14.
GIS-based assessment of risk due to salt mining activities at Tuzla (Bosnia and Herzegovina) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ground subsidence triggered by salt mining from deposits located beneath the city of Tuzla (Bosnia and Herzegovina) is one of the major dangers acting on a very densely urbanized area since 1950, when the salt deposit exploitation by means of boreholes began. As demonstrated in this paper, subsidence induced several hazard factors such as severe ground deformations, the arising of deep and superficial fractures and a very fast water table rise, connected with the brine extraction, now affecting several districts. The above mentioned factors have been quantified by the use of geomatic methodologies, including field surveys and analysis of geographical data. In order to estimate the historical sinking rates, authors processed the large (and never before processed) amount of topographical data collected during two periods; from 1956 to 1991, and from 1992 to 2003, with only poor data collected. Afterward, traditional surveys were completely and definitively stopped. The analysis reveals a cumulative subsidence as high as 12 m during the whole period, causing damage to buildings and infrastructures within an area that includes a large portion of the historical town, at present almost entirely destroyed. Modern sinking rates have been monitored with static GPS whereas the presence of superficial fractures monitored with kinematic GPS. Factors related to the presence of deep fractures and water table rise have been evaluated by curvature analysis techniques and piezometric data respectively. Finally, hazard factors have been combined in a risk map using the GIS (Geographical Information System) map algebra capabilities and a simple multicriteria decision analysis (MDA). In order to do that, a vulnerability map has been derived on the basis of information reported on a couple of recently sensed high resolution satellite imageries. The final risk, arisen from the combination of single hazard factors and vulnerability map, highlights critical scenarios and unsuspected threatening that are under consideration by the local decision makers and urban planners. In particular, as highlighted in the final risk map, the present-day water table rise, triggered by the decrease in brine pumping, is seriously posing a threat to a portion of the city which is not the most involved in ground deformations. 相似文献
15.
滑坡危险性定量评估是滑坡风险评估中的关键和难点,也是当前国际风险管理研究中的热点问题.以滑坡密集分布的黑方台南塬为研究区,以32处典型滑坡为研究对象,依据多期三维数字高程模型(DEM),提出了一种基于强度的滑坡危险性定量评估技术方法.根据多期三维地形信息的解译及野外调查,编制多期滑坡分布图,计算滑坡活动的频率.利用GIS技术,利用滑坡体积与速度的乘积计算滑坡强度.将滑坡危险性定义为滑坡频率和滑坡强度的乘积,同时调查和分析了黑方台地区各类承灾体的类型、价值及其在相应滑坡强度下的易损性,在此基础上开展了单体滑坡风险评估和黑方台南塬滑坡风险区划. 相似文献
16.
Landslide vulnerability and risk assessment for multi-hazard scenarios using airborne laser scanning data (LiDAR) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Landslide hazard, vulnerability, and risk-zoning maps are considered in the decision-making process that involves land use/land cover (LULC) planning in disaster-prone areas. The accuracy of these analyses is directly related to the quality of spatial data needed and methods employed to obtain such data. In this study, we produced a landslide inventory map that depicts 164 landslide locations using high-resolution airborne laser scanning data. The landslide inventory data were randomly divided into a training dataset: 70 % for training the models and 30 % for validation. In the initial step, a susceptibility map was developed using logistic regression approach in which weights were assigned to every conditioning factor. A high-resolution airborne laser scanning data (LiDAR) was used to derive the landslide conditioning factors for the spatial prediction of landslide hazard areas. The resultant susceptibility was validated using the area under the curve method. The validation result showed 86.22 and 84.87 % success and prediction rates, respectively. In the second stage, a landslide hazard map was produced using precipitation data for 15 years. The precipitation maps were subsequently prepared and show two main categories (two temporal probabilities) for the study area (the average for any day in a year and abnormal intensity recorded in any day for 15 years) and three return periods (15-, 10-, and 5-year periods). Hazard assessment was performed for the entire study area. In the third step, an element at risk map was prepared using LULC, which was considered in the vulnerability assessment. A vulnerability map was derived according to the following criteria: cost, time required for reconstruction, relative risk of landslide, risk to population, and general effect to certain damage. These criteria were applied only on the LULC of the study area because of lack of data on the population and building footprint and types. Finally, risk maps were produced using the derived vulnerability and hazard information. Thereafter, a risk analysis was conducted. The LULC map was cross-matched with the results of the hazard maps for the return period, and the losses were aggregated for the LULC. Then, the losses were calculated for the three return periods. The map of the risk areas may assist planners in overall landslide hazard management. 相似文献
17.
Suburban areas have become rapid development zones during China’s current urbanization. Generally, these areas are also regional precipitation centers that are prone to flood disasters. Therefore, it is important to assess the flood risk in suburban areas. In this study, flood risk was defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability based on disaster risk theory. A risk assessment index system was established, and the analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the index weight. The Fangshan District in Beijing, China, which is an example of a typical suburban area undergoing rapid urbanization, was selected for this study. Six factors were considered in relation to hazard, and three factors were considered for vulnerability. Each indicator was discretized, standardized, weighted, and then combined to obtain the final flood risk map in a geographical information system environment. The results showed that the high and very high risk zones in the Fangshan District were primarily concentrated on Yingfeng Street, Xingcheng Street, Xincheng Street, and Chengguanzhen Street. The comparison to an actual flood disaster suggested that the method was effective and practical. The method can quantitatively reflect the relative magnitude and spatial distribution patterns of flood risk in a region. The method can be applied easily to most suburban areas in China for land use planning and flood risk management. 相似文献
18.
19.
J. Zeng Z. Y. Zhu J. L. Zhang T. P. Ouyang S. F. Qiu Y. Zou T. Zeng 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(1):173-182
Social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards aims to identify vulnerable populations and provide decision makers with
scientific basis for their disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. A new method based on remote sensing is presented
here to establish a model of social vulnerability for county-scale regions that lack of relative data. To calculate population
density, which is the most important indicator in social vulnerability assessment, first, a statistical model is established
to estimate the population on village level. Then a new concept defined as “population density based on land use” is created
to replace the arithmetic population density. The former has taken the dynamic human distribution related to land use into
account; thus, it can map the population distribution more realistically. The other two indicators are age structure and distance
to hospital. The application of this method to the Luogang District of Guangzhou, South China demonstrated its capability
of providing high spatial resolution and reasonable social vulnerability for social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards. 相似文献
20.
Beibei Hu Jun Zhou Shiyuan Xu Zhenlou Chen Jun Wang Dongqi Wang Lei Wang Jifa Guo Weiqing Meng 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):873-886
Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area. 相似文献