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1.
椭圆型Copulas函数在西安站干旱特征分析中的应用 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
本文研究了干旱发生的联合概率、条件概率和重现期等干旱特征.以陕西省西安站月降水为例,应用Meta-Gaussian Copula和Student t Copula构造了干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值的联合概率分布,并进行了多变量分布拟合优质评价及拟合检验,在此基础上计算了联合分布的重现期以及2变量和3变量情形下的条件概率与条件重现期.研究表明,Meta-Gaussian Copula可以描述干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值三者的联合分布.由于多元联合分布可以考虑到多个变量之间的不同组合,能够求得不同干旱历时、干旱烈度或烈度峰值下的条件概率和条件重现期,因而能够更加全面客观地反映干旱的特征. 相似文献
2.
干旱持续时间久、影响范围大,时空连续性是干旱的基本特征,以往研究大多考虑单变量或双变量。通过给定阈值识别干旱斑块和判断两相邻时间干旱的连续性,提出了时空连续的干旱事件三维识别方法,用干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱烈度、干旱强度和干旱中心位置5个特征变量对一场干旱事件进行度量;提出了基于Copula函数的干旱历时-面积-烈度三变量频率分析方法。以中国西南地区为例,采用SPI(Standard Precipitation Index)干旱指标识别了近52年发生历时等于或大于3个月的干旱事件,一共78场,其中2009年8月至2010年6月最严重干旱事件的重现期为94年一遇。通过比较概率分布函数和Copula函数,表明在干旱频率分析时需要考虑干旱历时、面积、烈度3个特征变量。 相似文献
3.
基于宜昌站1951～2014年的实测月径流资料,选用标准化径流指数(SSI),运用游程理论识别干旱,应用Copula函数构建干旱特征变量间的多维联合概率分布,进而对宜昌站的干旱特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)宜昌在1950～1980年代,干旱次数呈现交替变化,自1990年代以来,特别是进入21世纪后,宜昌干旱事件增多、持续时间增大、干旱烈度和峰值增高,干旱情势有加重的趋势;(2)Copula函数可很好地描述宜昌地区干旱特征变量间的联合概率分布,多变量的联合重现期和同现重现期可分别作为实际单变量重现期区间估计的下限和上限,用以评估宜昌地区不同干旱变量值所代表的干旱事件发生的频率;(3)宜昌站近60年出现两次严重的干旱事件,一次发生于1978年9月～1979年7月,该事件的干旱历时和干旱烈度均达到了历史极值,这两个变量的联合重现期约为32a,同现重现期约为110a;该事件的干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值三个变量的联合重现期为9a,同现重现期约为115a。另一次干旱事件发生于2006年6月～12月,其烈度峰值达到了历史极值,其重现期接近90a;该次事件的干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值三者的联合重现期只有13a左右,同现重现期则超过了231a。 相似文献
4.
单变量水文统计中一些广为接受的概念在多变量环境下尚缺乏深入分析,也易被误解,如N年内重现期大于等于T的多变量事件发生的次数与N/T的关系。实践中,多变量联合重现期与其边缘分布变量重现期的一些经验关系被发现并通过了案例验证分析,但缺乏解释和推导。基于GH Copula推导了双变量联合重现期与边缘分布变量重现期的关系以及双变量事件发生次数与其重现期、变量相关程度间的定量关系。以昆明56年的逐月SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)和SRI(Standardized Runoff Index)识别了干旱事件,采用GH Copula构建了干旱历时和烈度的联合分布函数,验证了双变量联合重现期与边缘分布变量重现期的关系以及多变量事件发生次数与其重现期的定量关系。表明不宜以“and”第1重现期是否接近于比该干旱事件的旱情更重的干旱发生的平均时间间隔来说明干旱特征值重现期分析的合理性。变量的相关性不强时,需谨慎采用边缘分布变量重现期的较大值近似代替“and”事件的第1重现期。 相似文献
5.
以甘肃省陇西站月降水资料为例,应用9种3维Archimedean Copulas函数构造了干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值的联合概率分布,并进行了多变量的拟合优度评价,利用优选出的3维非对称型M12 Copula函数,计算联合分布的重现期以及不同组合下的条件概率与条件重现期。结果表明,M12Copula函数可以描述干旱历时、干旱烈度和烈度峰值间的联合分布。由于Copula函数能够用来构建不同边缘分布的联合分布,可以获得变量间不同组合下的重现期,因而能够更全面客观地反映干旱的特征,是描述干旱多变量分布的一种有效途径。 相似文献
6.
运用非参数核密度估计方法研究干旱发生的联合概率、条件概率和重现期等干旱特征,以宁夏盐池站的月降水为例,应用单变量核概率密度函数估计干旱历时D的边缘分布,进行参数方法和非参数方法的拟合效果比较。在此基础上,采用双变量核概率密度函数估计方法构建了历时D与烈度S、历时D与峰值P的两变量联合概率分布,并计算了联合分布的重现期、条件概率与条件重现期。结果表明:与参数方法相比,非参数核密度估计方法能够描述干旱历时D、烈度S和峰值P两两之间的联合分布,是研究干旱频率的另一种新途径。 相似文献
7.
8.
提出不同网格干旱等级影响下的区域干旱指数。采用copula函数,建立了区域干旱历时和干旱强度的联合分布,计算联合分布的重现期,并对实际重现期作区间估计。所提出的区域干旱指数能够反映研究区域内发生干旱的严重程度和该区内不同干旱等级所影响面积的大小,且联合分布同时考虑了干旱历时和干旱强度,更全面地反映区域的干旱状况。重庆市2006年干旱实证分析表明,区域干旱指数能够较好地描述本次干旱的发生发展过程,并计算出联合分布的重现期为118年。 相似文献
9.
为应对全球范围内日益严重的干旱问题,对区域气象干旱相对完整的评估分析模式开展了探讨。提出了从区域气象干旱识别到干旱特征值计算,再到干旱特征多变量分析的3个分析评估步骤。并以渭河流域为例,对研究区域进行了矩形干旱评估单元划分,选取了RDI（Reconnaissance Drought Index）为评估指标对区域内各单元各时段的干旱状态进行了识别,结果与历史记载的干旱年份吻合较好。分别采用了分布拟合、相关系数和Copula函数等统计学方法对区域干旱的干旱特征值（干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱强度和干旱频率）进行了特征分析,得出了一系列的单变量、双变量及多变量特征分析对比结果。通过对各类分布函数的计算和绘图,得到了渭河流域干旱事件发生的条件概率和重现期,形成了一套相对完整的区域干旱评估分析模式。 相似文献
10.
基于Copulas函数的二维干旱变量联合分布 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
通过构建干旱变量的联合分布揭示干旱演变规律,可作为干旱分析的重要手段。基于8种单参数族的Copulas函数进行新疆乌鲁木齐和石河子气象站二维干旱变量的联合分布。经拟合优度评价:Frank Copula对干旱历时和干旱烈度、干旱历时和烈度峰值的拟合度最好;Clayton Copula对于干旱烈度和烈度峰值的拟合效果最好。二维变量联合超越概率值随单变量值的减小而增大;单变量的重现期介于二维变量联合重现期与同现重现期之间。表明Copulas函数能够描述二维干旱特征变量的联合分布。 相似文献
11.
Garnet–melt trace element partitioning experiments were performed in the system FeO–CaO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2 (FCMAS) at 3 GPa and 1540°C, aimed specifically at studying the effect of garnet Fe2+ content on partition coefficients (DGrt/Melt). DGrt/Melt, measured by SIMS, for trivalent elements entering the garnet X-site show a small but significant dependence on garnet almandine content. This dependence is rationalised using the lattice strain model of Blundy and Wood [Blundy, J.D., Wood, B.J., 1994. Prediction of crystal–melt partition coefficients from elastic moduli. Nature 372, 452–454], which describes partitioning of an element i with radius ri and valency Z in terms of three parameters: the effective radius of the site r0(Z), the strain-free partition coefficient D0(Z) for a cation with radius r0(Z), and the apparent compressibility of the garnet X-site given by its Young's modulus EX(Z). Combination of these results with data in Fe-free systems [Van Westrenen, W., Blundy, J.D., Wood, B.J., 1999. Crystal-chemical controls on trace element partitioning between garnet and anhydrous silicate melt. Am. Mineral. 84, 838–847] and crystal structure data for spessartine, andradite, and uvarovite, leads to the following equations for r0(3+) and EX(3+) as a function of garnet composition (X) and pressure (P):Accuracy of these equations is shown by application to the existing garnet–melt partitioning database, covering a wide range of P and T conditions (1.8 GPa<P<5.0 GPa; 975°C<T<1640°C). DGrt/Melt for all 3+ elements entering the X-site (REE, Sc and Y) are predicted to within 10–40% at given P, T, and X, when DGrt/Melt for just one of these elements is known. In the absence of such knowledge, relative element fractionation (e.g. DSmGrt/Melt/DNdGrt/Melt) can be predicted. As an example, we predict that during partial melting of garnet peridotite, group A eclogite, and garnet pyroxenite, r0(3+) for garnets ranges from 0.939±0.005 to 0.953±0.009 Å. These values are consistently smaller than the ionic radius of the heaviest REE, Lu. The above equations quantify the crystal-chemical controls on garnet–melt partitioning for the REE, Y and Sc. As such, they represent a major advance en route to predicting DGrt/Melt for these elements as a function of P, T and X. 相似文献
r0(3+) [Å]=0.930XPy+0.993XGr+0.916XAlm+0.946XSpes+1.05(XAnd+XUv)−0.005(P [GPa]−3.0)(±0.005 Å)
EX(3+) [GPa]=3.5×1012(1.38+r0(3+) [Å])−26.7(±30 GPa)
12.
Runoff, which is a key component in the hydrological cycle, is mainly controlled by climate factors and land-surface elements in non-humid regions. The impacts of climate and vegetation changes on runoff based on Budyko hypothesis in the middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin was analyzed in this article. First, the temporal trend of variables in the study area during 1981-2013 was examined by using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening. Second, the relationship of the parameter n in Fu's equation with factors of climate and vegetation coverage was built to reveal the time-variation process of n. Finally, the effects of climatic factors and vegetation coverage on runoff were assessed by analyzing the sensitivity of runoff to each variable. It is found that average temperature (T), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) in the study area present an increasing trend while runoff (Q), precipitation (P), wind speed (u2) and relative humid (RH) present decreasing trend. The parameter n in Fu's equation is significantly related to both climatic factors (including precipitation (P), average temperature (T), relative humid (RH), sunshine duration (S), wind speed (u2)) and vegetation coverage index (NDVI). In terms of sensitivity of Runoff (Q) to the variation of each climatic factors and NDVI in the middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin, precipitation (P) and NDVI have the highest sensitivity, followed by other climatic factors. Additionally, the precipitation (P) reduction is the main driving factor to the decline in runoff, while vegetation coverage is another important factor. In general, climate change affects runoff not only by changing the hydrological inputs (precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (PET) but also by altering the watershed characteristics as represented by the parameter n, while the impacts of vegetation coverage on runoff are exerted mainly through the alteration of the watershed characteristics. 相似文献
13.
Status report on stability of K-rich phases at mantle conditions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Experimental research on K-rich phases and observations from diamond inclusions, UHP metamorphic rocks, and xenoliths provide insights about the hosts for potassium at mantle conditions. K-rich clinopyroxene (Kcpx–KM3+Si2O6) can be an important component in clinopyroxenes at P>4 GPa, dependent upon coexisting K-bearing phases (solid or liquid) but not, apparently, upon temperature. Maximum Kcpx content can reach 25 mol%, with 17 mol% the highest reported in nature. Partitioning (K)D(cpx/liquid) above 7 GPa=0.1–0.2 require ultrapotassic liquids to form highly potassic cpx or critical solid reactions, e.g., between Kspar and Di. Phlogopite can be stable to about 8 GPa at 1250 °C where either amphibole or liquid forms. When fluorine is present, it generally increases in Phl upon increasing P (and probably T) to about 6 GPa, but reactions forming amphibole and/or KMgF3 limit F content between 6 and 8 GPa. The perovskite KMgF3 is stable up to 10 GPa and 1400 °C as subsolidus breakdown products of phlogopite upon increasing P. (M4)K-substituted potassic richterite (ideally K(KCa)Mg5Si8O22(OH,F)2) is produced in K-rich peridotites above 6 GPa and in Di+Phl from 6 to 13 GPa. K content of amphibole is positively correlated with P; Al and F content decrease with P. In the system 1Kspar+1H2O K-cymrite (hydrous hexasanidine–KAlSi3O8·nH2O–Kcym) is stable from 2.5 GPa at 400 to 1200 °C and 9 GPa; Kcym can be a supersolidus phase. Formation of Kcym is sensitive to water content, not forming within experiments with H2O2O>Kspar. Phase X, a potassium di-magnesium acid disilicate ((K1−x−n)2(Mg1−nMn3+)2Si2O7H2x), forms in mafic compositions at T=1150–1400 °C and P=9–17 GPa and is a potential host for K and H2O at mantle conditions with a low-T geotherm or in subducting slabs. The composition of phase-X is not fixed but actually represents a solid solution in the stoichiometries □2Mg2Si2O7H2–(K□)Mg2Si2O7H–K2Mg2Si2O7 (□=vacancy), apparently stable only near the central composition. K-hollandite, KAlSi3O8, is possibly the most important K-rich phase at very high pressure, as it appears to be stable to conditions near the core–mantle boundary, 95 GPa and 2300 °C. Other K-rich phases are considered. 相似文献
14.
基于区域地震台网的数字化波形资料，使用ISOLA方法对2019年5月18日吉林松原M5.1地震进行矩张量反演，研究地震的震源机制，并且收集了地震序列中ML2.5以上地震的震源机制解，采用FMSI（focal mechanism stress inversion）方法反演震中区构造应力场。结果显示：松原M5.1地震的矩震级为4.9，矩心深度为6 km，双力偶分量为91.5%，主压应力P轴方位角、倾角分别为76°和3°，主张应力T轴方位角、倾角分别为166°和16°，震源机制解显示典型的构造地震特征；震中区构造应力场理论应力轴σ1方位角、倾伏角分别为88.0°和0.9°，σ2方位角、倾伏角分别为178.2°和9.6°，σ3方位角、倾伏角分别为352.5°和80.4°，这一结果与区域构造应力场一致。推断认为区域构造应力场触发了2019年松原M5.1地震活动，地震震源机制解的北西向节面与震中区附近的第二松花江断裂现今活动性质完全一致，认为第二松花断裂可能是松原M5.1地震的发震断层。 相似文献
15.
隧道TBM开挖过程中经常会遇到复合岩层,在这种地质环境下,隧道掘进机（tunnel boring machine,简称TBM）开挖过程中的隧道围岩强度很难估计,隧道开挖掌子面和围岩容易发生坍塌。为了提高隧道掘进效率、预防事故发生,对开挖隧道围岩强度进行实时估算方面的研究很有必要。在重庆轨道九号线隧道TBM施工中,通过室内试验和现场实测数据发现,TBM推力FN与岩石强度成正比、TBM扭矩推力比T/FN（T为扭矩）与贯入度p0.5成正比例关系。针对砂质泥岩、砂岩和灰岩组成的复合岩层,提出了一种利用现场实测推力FN和扭矩T的值来快速估算开挖隧道围岩强度的方法,进一步对TBM实测数据进行线性拟合,从而得到估算公式中两个常数α1、α2的取值方法,并在10多个隧道实际工程中得到验证。结果表明,对于这种复合岩层地质环境,两个常数α1、α2的值与滚刀数量n和滚刀直径d相关。该研究成果为实时快速估算开挖隧道围岩强度提供了一种新的切实可行的思路,能提高隧道TBM施工的可靠性和安全性,具有重要的应用价值。 相似文献
16.
In the present study from the southern margin of the Central Indian Tectonic Zone, it is demonstrated how the metamorphic P–T path of ultrahigh-temperature granulite terranes can be reconstructed using the metamorphic transition in corundum granulites from early biotite melting to later FMAS solid–solid reaction. The extreme metamorphism in these rocks caused two-stage biotite melting, resulting in initial porphyroblastic garnet1 and later sapphirine–spinel1 incongruent solid mineral assemblages. During this process, the leucocratic and melanocratic layers in the corundum granulites evolved from an initial silica-oversaturated to a later silica-undersaturated domain. In the melanocratic layer, this allowed localized concentration of sapphirine-spinel1 and residual sillimanite1, producing an extremely restitic assemblage, at the culmination of peak metamorphism, BM1. BM1 is constrained at 1000 °C at relatively deep crustal levels (P 9 kbar) from the stability of ferroaugite in a co-metamorphosed Iron Formation granulite. During subsequent metamorphism (BM2), the reaction path and history in the corundum granulites shifted to the restitic domain allowing reacting sapphirine, spinel1 and sillimanite to produce coronal garnet2–corundum assemblage via a FMAS univariant reaction. In the final stages of reaction history, biotite2–sillimanite2–spinel2 assemblage was produced after garnet2–corundum due to localized melt–crystal interaction. The metamorphic sequence, when interpreted with the help of a newly constructed, qualitative KFMASH petrogenetic grid, reveals successive stages of heating, increasing pressure and cooling around the KFMASH invariant point, [Opx,Crd], which is consistent with a counterclockwise metamorphic P–T path. The near isobaric nature of post-peak cooling (ΔT 250–300 °C) is also evident from multistage pyroxene exsolution and by the appearance of lamellar and coronal garnets in the Iron Formation granulites. This study provides the first tight constraint for ultrahigh-T metamorphism along a counter clockwise P–T trajectory in the Central Indian Tectonic zone, and has important bearing for terrane correlations in this part of East Gondwanaland. In addition, the new KFMASH grid allows evaluation of metamorphic phase relations in ultrahigh-T, corundum-bearing and corundum-absent aluminous granulites. 相似文献
17.
The seismic characteristic of Hindukush–Pamir–Himalaya (HPH) and its vicinity is very peculiar and has experienced many widely distributed large earthquakes. Recent work on the time-dependent seismicity in the Hindukush–Pamir–Himalayas is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”, which is expressed by the relation log T=cMp+a, where T is the inter-event time between two successive main shocks of a region and Mp is the magnitude of the preceded main shock. Parameter a is a function of the magnitude of the minimum earthquake considered and of the tectonic loading and c is positive (0.3) constant. In 90% of the cases with sufficient data, parameter c was found to be positive, which strongly supports the validity of the model. In the present study, a different approach, which assumes no prior regionalization of the area, is attempted to check the validity of the model. Nine seismic sources were defined within the considered region and the inter-event time of strong shallow main shock were determined and used for each source in an attempt at long-term prediction, which show the clustering and occurrence of at least three earthquakes of magnitude 5.5≤Ms≤7.5 giving two repeat times, satisfying the necessary and sufficient conditions of time-predictable model (TP model). Further, using the global applicability of the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, the following relations have been obtained: log Tt=0.19 Mmin+0.52Mp+0.29 log m0−10.63 and Mf=1.31Mmin−0.60Mp−0.72 log m0+21.01, where Tt is the inter-event time, measured in years; Mmin the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main shock considered; Mp the magnitude of preceding main shock; Mf the magnitude of the following main shock; and m0 the moment rate in each source per year.
These relations may be used for seismic hazard assessment in the region. Based on these relations and taking into account the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the last main shock in each seismogenic source, time-dependent conditional probabilities for the occurrence of the next large (Ms≥5.5) shallow main shocks during the next 20 years as well as the magnitudes of the expected main shocks are determined. 相似文献
18.
Alexandra Guedes Fernando Noronha Marie-Christine Boiron David A. Banks 《Chemical Geology》2002,190(1-4):273-289
In order to identify and characterise fluids associated with metamorphic rocks from the Chaves region (North Portugal), fluid inclusions were studied in quartz veinlets, concordant with the main foliation, in graphitic-rich and nongraphitic-rich lithologies from areas with distinct metamorphic grade. The study indicates multiple fluid circulation events with a variety of compositions, broadly within the C–H–O–N–salt system. Primary fluid inclusions in quartz contain low salinity aqueous–carbonic, H2O–CH4–N2–NaCl fluids that were trapped near the peak of regional metamorphism, which occurred during or immediately after D2. The calculated P–T conditions for the western area of Chaves (CW) is P=300–350 MPa and T500 °C, and for the eastern area (CE), P=200–250 MPa and T=400–450 °C. A first generation of secondary fluid inclusions is restricted to discrete cracks at the grain boundaries of quartz and consists of low salinity aqueous–carbonic, H2O–CO2–CH4–N2–NaCl fluids. P–T conditions from the fluid inclusions indicate that they were trapped during a thermal event, probably related with the emplacement of the two-mica granites.
A second generation of secondary inclusions occurs in intergranular fractures and is characterised by two types of aqueous inclusions. One type is a low salinity, H2O–NaCl fluid and the second consists of a high salinity, H2O–NaCl–CaCl2 fluid. These fluid inclusions are not related to the metamorphic process and have been trapped after D3 at relatively low P (hydrostatic)–T conditions (P<100 MPa and T<300 °C).
Both the early H2O–CH4–N2–NaCl fluids in quartz from the graphitic-rich lithologies and the later H2O–CO2–CH4–N2–NaCl carbonic fluid in quartz from graphitic-rich and nongraphitic-rich lithologies seem to have a common origin and evolution. They have low salinity, probably resulting from connate waters that were diluted by the water released from mineral dehydration during metamorphism. Their main component is water, but the early H2O–CH4–N2–NaCl fluids are enriched in CH4 due to interaction with the C-rich host rocks.
From the early H2O–CH4–N2–NaCl to the later aqueous–carbonic H2O–CO2–CH4–N2–NaCl fluids, there is an enrichment in CO2 that is more significant for the fluids associated with nongraphitic-rich lithologies.
The aqueous–carbonic fluids, enriched in H2O and CH4, are primarily associated with graphitic-rich lithologies. However, the aqueous–carbonic CO2-rich fluids were found in both graphitic and nongraphitic-rich units from both the CW and CE studied areas, which are of medium and low metamorphic grade, respectively. 相似文献
19.
渤海海域中生界火山岩岩石类型复杂多样,且同一岩性受岩石成分、结构差异的影响,因此岩石物理响应特征存在较大差异,为岩性识别增加了难度。本文通过对研究区大量取心资料、壁心资料以及薄片资料的岩电分析,优选出对岩性响应敏感的自然伽马(GR)、补偿中子(CNL)、密度(DEN)、声波时差(AC)以及原状地层电阻率(Rd)等5条曲线。基于主成分分析法,构建了F_1—F_5共5个综合变量,其中F_1和F_2方差贡献率占总贡献率的81.4%,可作为两个主成分有效地反映5个变量的信息。针对主成分信息,利用Bayes判别法,构建了不同岩性的定量解释模型,对研究区9种火山岩进行了岩性识别。对取心井段的回判结果显示,基于主成分分析与Bayes判别的联合识别方法较常规交会图法在岩石成分及结构的识别精度方面均有较大程度的提高。该方法的提出对研究区成像测井、元素测井资料缺少井段的火山岩岩性识别具有重要借鉴作用。 相似文献