排序方式： 共有7条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1
1.
IPCC A1B情景下中国西南地区气候变化的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM 全球海气耦合模式模拟的当代(1986-2000 年)和IPCC A1B情景下未来(2011-2025 年)2×15a 的模拟输出格点场资料,驱动20 km高水平分辨率区域气候模式RegCM3 进行西南地区气候变化的数值模拟,主要分析未来地面温度和降水的可能变化。结果表明：①通过与32 个地面气象站观测资料和CRU资料对比分析,RegCM3 能够很好的模拟研究区基准时段地面温度和降水的局地分布特征。②A1B情景下未来西南地区年、四季平均温度均明显增加,北部温度变化幅度大于南部。③最高/最低温度一致升高,冬季最高/最低温度变化幅度大于夏季;年、秋冬季降水有所增加,冬季降水增加明显,而春夏季降水略有减少。④研究区未来春夏季温度升高、降水减少的趋势可能导致局部地区高温、干旱等极端天气的可能性增大;同时冬季降水增加,可能加重局部地区洪涝灾害的风险。 相似文献
2.
冰封期水动力水质模型在松花江水污染事件中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据研究流域特点建立了冰封期水动力水质模型,结合冰封期水位测量的特点,对水位模拟结果进行了修正,分别利用2006和2007年水文监测数据对模型进行了率定和验证,利用模型对2005年松花江硝基苯水污染事件进行模拟。计算结果表明:建立的冰封期水动力水质模型能够很好地适用于该地区,部分断面硝基苯质量浓度峰值的相对误差为5%~13%,峰值出现时间的绝对误差为2~3 h。利用模型预测了上游边界流量增加20%及减少5%对水质的影响,结果表明:流量增加导致污染团峰值提前22 h到达摆渡河断面,硝基苯质量浓度峰值降低了15%,流量减少导致峰值延迟6 h到达摆渡河断面,质量浓度峰值升高了4.6%。 相似文献
3.
为应对全球范围内日益严重的干旱问题,对区域气象干旱相对完整的评估分析模式开展了探讨。提出了从区域气象干旱识别到干旱特征值计算,再到干旱特征多变量分析的3个分析评估步骤。并以渭河流域为例,对研究区域进行了矩形干旱评估单元划分,选取了RDI（Reconnaissance Drought Index）为评估指标对区域内各单元各时段的干旱状态进行了识别,结果与历史记载的干旱年份吻合较好。分别采用了分布拟合、相关系数和Copula函数等统计学方法对区域干旱的干旱特征值（干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱强度和干旱频率）进行了特征分析,得出了一系列的单变量、双变量及多变量特征分析对比结果。通过对各类分布函数的计算和绘图,得到了渭河流域干旱事件发生的条件概率和重现期,形成了一套相对完整的区域干旱评估分析模式。 相似文献
4.
围绕中国在全球变化及应对领域多学科交叉研究能力提升和维护国家利益两大重大实践需求,本研究将以全球变化背景下大气-陆面-水文过程演变为主线,融合气象与气候学、水文及水资源学、系统工程学等多学科理论与技术,采用高密度原型观测、多尺度机理实验、数值模拟与仿真、地理信息技术等多方法相结合的途径,发挥云平台的存储、计算和管理等功能与优势,按照“机理识别-规律揭示-形势诊断”的总体思路开展陆地水循环演变及其在全球变化中的作用研究,将发布过去60年全球陆地广义水资源及水循环通量与干旱事件、1级至4级河流径流性水资源与洪涝事件的成果数据;将为中国参与全球气候谈判、国际气候治理和“一带一路”等国家战略的实施提供直接支撑,潜在的经济社会效益显著。 相似文献
5.
In recent years,more and more attention has been paid to the problem of the cryosphere changes on the Tibetan Plateau,and it has gradually become a hot issue for scholars. Known as the“water tower of Asia”,the Tibetan Plateau is the source of many major rivers in Asia. Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,water resources on the Tibetan Plateau have undergone profound changes,especially soil water,as an important component of water resources,which plays an important role in regulating vegetation and crop growth,rainfall and runoff. However,global warming leads to the degradation of permafrost and seasonal⁃ ly frozen soil,which affects the original water cycle process and the spatial and temporal pattern of water re⁃ sources by changing the properties of soil water storage and water transport. In the Tibetan Plateau,where there are few data,it is difficult to directly study the soil water cycle process under freezing-thawing by using original data. Therefore,it is an important means to simulate the variation characteristics of soil water and temperature under freezing-thawing in seasonally frozen soil regions of the Tibetan Plateau by using coupling model of soil water and heat. Aiming at the key problem of the difference of soil temperature and moisture characteristics in typical seasonally frozen soil regions under different meteorological conditions,this paper simulated the charac⁃ teristics of soil moisture and temperature change in Maqu,Naqu（Nagqu）and Shiquanhe from 2017 to 2018 by using SHAW（Simultaneous Heat and Water）model and three soil moisture characteristic curve models. The simulation effect and variation characteristics of soil moisture and temperature under different meteorological conditions were analyzed,and the influence of soil moisture characteristic curve model on the simulation effect was studied. The results show that SHAW model can well simulate the temporal variation and vertical distribu⁃ tion of soil temperature and moisture under different meteorological conditions. The simulation effect of soil tem⁃ perature is better than that of soil moisture. The average NSE,R2 and RMSE of soil temperature are 0. 88,0. 96 and 2. 20 ℃,respectively. The mean NSE,R2 and RMSE of soil moisture are 0. 60,0. 72 and 0. 03 m3·m-3,respec⁃ tively. In terms of different meteorological conditions,the simulation effect of soil temperature in relatively dry region was significantly better than that in humid region,while the simulation effect of soil water in relatively hu⁃ mid region was significantly better than that in arid region. From different depths in soil,the simulation effect of soil temperature decreases gradually with the increase of depth,while the simulation effect of soil moisture in the middle and lower layers is better than that in the surface layer. From the view of different soil moisture character⁃ istic curve models,different soil water characteristic curve models have no significant effect on soil temperature simulation effect,but there are significant differences in soil moisture simulation effect. In addition,there are great differences and uncertainties in simulating soil temperature and moisture in different freezing-thawing stag⁃ es. With the increasing trend of climate warming,permafrost and seasonally frozen soil on the Tibetan Plateau may continue to degrade,may change the current water resources pattern,resulting in frequent extreme weather events. Therefore,from the perspective of numerical simulation,this paper verified the applicability of soil moisture and heat coupling model in soil temperature and moisture simulation under different meteorological con⁃ ditions,revealed the influence of precipitation and temperature on soil temperature and moisture simulation at different depths in seasonally frozen soil regions,and analyzed the differences in simulation effects of different soil moisture characteristic curve models. The results provide reference for the study of soil water resources vari⁃ ation under freezing-thawing conditions. © 2023 Chinese Journal of General Practitioners. All rights reserved. 相似文献
6.
地下水数值计算是研究分析地下水各种问题的重要手段。文中对近年来地下水数值模拟计算相关方法研究进展、地下水数值模拟工作程序的方法论、地下水数值模拟的参数反演方法、国际流行的地下水数值模型及软件平台、目前国内地下水数值模型的相关应用等几个方面进行了综述,力图从相对全面的角度认识当前地下水计算技术的发展。在回顾地下水以上研究进展的基础上,对现代信息技术在地下水数值计算技术中的积极促进作用、地下水更深入和复杂规律的研究、地下水研究与其他学科之间的综合集成和协同互补等发展趋势进行了探讨,为相关研究人员提供一定的参考。 相似文献
7.
内陆水体环境遥感监测研究评述 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
应用遥感技术进行水质监测较常规监测具有巨大优势,能快速、大尺度、低成本的监测水质参数在时空上的变化状况。本文首先简要阐述了内陆水体环境遥感监测的基本原理;其次,介绍了常用水质参数的遥感监测研究现状,包括叶绿素a(Chl-a)、悬浮物(SS)、有色可溶性有机物(CDOM)以及总磷(TN)、总氮(TP)等其他水质参数,并将其划分为经验模型和生物光学模型两种监测方法;再次,对常用的遥感数据源进行了介绍和优缺点的评述;最后,讨论了内陆水体环境遥感监测误差来源,并对今后内陆水体环境遥感监测研究重点进行了展望。 相似文献
1