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1.
Computer-based Model for Flood Evacuation Emergency Planning 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
A computerized simulation model for capturing human behavior during flood emergency evacuation is developed using a system dynamics approach. It simulates the acceptance of evacuation orders by the residents of the area under threat; number of families in the process of evacuation; and time required for all evacuees to reach safety. The model is conceptualized around the flooding conditions (physical and management) and the main set of social and mental factors that determine human behavior before and during the flood evacuation. The number of families under the flood threat, population in the process of evacuation, inundation of refuge routes, flood conditions (precipitation, river elevation, etc.), and different flood warnings and evacuation orders related variables are among the large set of variables included in the model. They are linked to the concern that leads to the danger recognition, which triggers evacuation decisions that determine the number of people being evacuated. The main purpose of the model is to assess the effectiveness of different flood emergency management procedures. Each procedure consists of the choice of flood warning method, warning consistency, timing of evacuation order, coherence of the community, upstream flooding conditions, and set of weights assigned to different warning distribution methods. Model use and effectiveness are tested through the evaluation of the effectiveness of different flood evacuation emergency options in the Red River Basin, Canada. 相似文献
2.
In urban area, popular and property is accumulated in a small area, potential risk of earthquake disaster in urban community
is great. Pre-disaster emergency evacuation zoning has become a significant topic of disaster prevention and mitigation research.
Based on the present layout of evacuation facilities and shelters as well as the evacuation demands in urban communities,
a systematical methodology for occupant evacuation against earthquakes on community scale was developed by employing spatial
analysis techniques of Geographical Information System (GIS). The methodology included the following aspects: the distribution
analysis of emergency evacuation demands, the calculation of shelter space accessibility, and the optimization of evacuation
destinations. This methodology was applied to Lujiazui Street in Pudong, a new district located in Shanghai, China. It was
found that the proposed methodology could be used to formulate pre-event planning for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation
on a community scale, especially for organizing a rapid and smooth evacuation and optimizing the location allocation of shelters. 相似文献
3.
Li Bingyao Hou Jingming Ma Yongyong Bai Ganggang Wang Tian Xu Guoxin Wu Binzhong Jiao Yongbao 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(1):607-628
Flooding is now becoming one of the most frequent and widely distributed natural hazards, with significant losses to human lives and property around the world. Evacuation of pedestrians during flooding events is a crucial factor in flood risk management, in addition to saving people’s lives and increasing time for rescue. The key objective of this work is to propose a shortest evacuation path planning algorithm by considering the evacuable areas and human instability during floods. A shortest route optimization algorithm based on cellular automata is established while using diagonal distance calculation methods in heuristic search algorithms. The Morpeth flood event that occurred in 2008 in the UK is used as a case study, and a highly accurate and efficient 2D hydrodynamic model is adopted to discuss the flood characteristics in flood plains. Two flood hazard assessment approaches [i.e., empirical and mechanics-based and experimental calibrated (M&E)] are chosen to study human instability. A comprehensive analysis shows that extreme events are better identified with mechanics-based and experimental calibration methods than with an empirical method. The result of M&E is used as the initial condition for the Morpeth evacuation scenario. Evacuation path planning in Morpeth shows that this algorithm can realize shortest route planning with multiple starting points and ending points at the microscale. These findings are of significance for flood risk management and emergency evacuation research.
相似文献4.
Spatially explicit hydrodynamic flood models can play animportant role in natural hazard risk reduction. A key element of these models that make them suitable for riskreduction is the ability to provide time-series inundation information about the onset, duration and passingof a hazard event. Such information can be critical for landuse planning, for mapping evacuation egress routes,and for locating suitable emergency shelters to name only a few risk treatments. This research contends that abarrier to effective risk reduction is providing disaster managers with access to model results in a structured andflexible framework that allows consequences of different hazard scenarios to be assessed and mapped. Toaddress these limitations, a framework has been developed that links a commercial relational databasemanagement system with a GIS-based decision support system. The framework utilises industry standard dataexchange protocols and results in efficient time-series hazard data management. A case study based in Cairns,in far-north coastal Australia is presented to illustrate how the system has been developed. Results show that theframework reduces data volumes significantly, while making pre-run modelled inundation results rapidly accessibleto disaster managers. Of note is the ability of the framework to present results in terms of risk to buildings,roads and other spatial features in urban regions, and to provide answers to relatively complex risk questions. 相似文献
5.
An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Effective flood incident management (FIM) requires successful operation of complex, interacting human and technological systems.
A dynamic agent-based model of FIM processes has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy analysis
and other practical applications. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks
with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. The multiagent simulation has been coupled with
a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence
breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. A case study in the coastal town of Towyn in the United Kingdom
has demonstrated the capacity of the model to analyse the risks of flooding to people, support flood emergency planning and
appraise the benefits of flood incident management measures. 相似文献
6.
José Manuel Marrero Alicia García Angeles Llinares Servando De la Cruz-Reyna Silvia Ramos Ramón Ortiz 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(2):955-980
Decision making regarding massive evacuation of a population threatened by a probable volcanic eruption is a major problem in crisis management. Such a decision is general on the number of people to be evacuated, available resources and infrastructure, quantity and quality of the escape routes and shelters, and the economic, social and political costs involved in the operation, coupled with the updated information provided by scientists about the forecast of future activity and probable eruption scenarios. Knowing time-lapse between the evacuation decision-making time and the time in which the evacuation is completed is another critical issue that must be carefully considered in densely populated areas. In such areas, it is really important to estimate in advance this time-lapse, as the forecast must be released with enough time to complete all the evacuation process before the destructive manifestations of the eruption begin. In this context, evacuation planning is a crucial component of emergency management. It is common for Emergency Plans to include pre-established strategies. However, an evacuation procedure should be flexible, depending on the above-mentioned timing, and on the decisions, evacuation schemes, environmental characteristics and other factors. In this work, several hazard models such as a lava flow model based on a Monte Carlo algorithm, a pyroclastic density current based on energy cone model, a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of ash deposits, and all available information about the El Chión volcano have been used to obtain the area that should be evacuated in case of an eruption. Then, multiple evacuation strategies at El Chichón volcano have been designed, considering not only the characteristics of the eruption forecast, but also environmental factors (e.g., weather conditions) and social factors (e.g., tourism and farming seasons). The variable scale evacuation model has been used to estimate the evacuation time. In the paper, those virtual tools are briefly described as well as the information obtained from the drill of 2009. In addition to the optimization of evacuation under variable conditions and situations, one of the main objectives of this work is to provide a reliable estimation of the mitigation action time, for an Emergency Plan. 相似文献
7.
A DEM-based evaluation of potential flood risk to enhance decision support system for safe evacuation 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
A practical, DEM-based practical method is proposed to enhance flood risk management in fluvial areas by quantifying relative
risk as a function of vulnerability to inland and evacuation difficulty. Both measures are based mainly on the topography
of the region, so the method does not require detailed data on the physical characteristics of the land. First, we use the
deterministic 8-node method on a digital elevation map (DEM) to trace storm waterways. Second, we repeat the process on a
reversed DEM to trace evacuation routes that avoid the waterways and zones dangerously close to the rivers. Finally, on the
basis of such two flow lines of evacuee and storm water, we proposed the protocol to evaluate the flood risk at every point
on the map taking into account both the minimum time required for floodwater to arrive and duration of an evacuation from
that location. The time that must be allocated for safe evacuation is defined as the potential flood risk of evacuation (PFRE).
The method is demonstrated on a fluvial area of the Kaki River in Nagaoka city, Japan. In addition, we illustrated the application
of the PFRE map to divide the region into areas of greater or lesser evacuation urgency. 相似文献
8.
MCDM (multi-criteria decision making) techniques are used to choose the best alternative among the relevant ones and rank the others. In this research, MCDM techniques were used to choose and rank the best places for constructing storage dams in Iran. To achieve this goal, the relevant information and data about dam construction situations were collected. Then, the recommended places for constructing storage dams were ranked by using MCDM techniques and according to the most suitable criteria which have been chosen based on experts’ opinions. To rank dam constructing project, three MCDM techniques, i.e., TOPSIS, AHP, and DEMATEL, were used. The results showed that the application of MCDM models by putting emphasis on economic, social, political, and technical criteria enables government and watershed managers to choose the best alternative(s) for constructing a storage dam. 相似文献
9.
Recent emergency flood situations at European rivers have revealed the demand for better and in-time information for citizens
in flood prone areas about flood development, as well as better coordination of resources and actions during pre-flood phases
and its critical stage. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has a large potential to improve the situation. Decisions
may be supported by information about resources available at the region and national level, by information about means and
access to critical locations at the prevention as well as the evacuation phases, and by including citizens as well as managers
into one common information and communication process. The paper outlines the potential of ICT for these aspects. 相似文献
10.
溃坝撤离技术理论对编制撤离预案和指导撤离行动至关重要,目前研究主要集中在影响因素分析、溃坝洪水-人流-路径叠加分析、人员死亡数量规律统计等方面,但溃坝撤离基础数据不足,环境-地物-人群三元耦合过程中主要因素互馈机制不清,预警时间研究不深,相关理论发展受限。对近几十年溃坝撤离技术理论研究和实践进行综述,总结了国内外溃坝撤离实践和溃坝撤离影响因素、过程模拟、预案评价等主要成果,研究了预警时间和临界预警时间概念,展望了今后主要发展方向。应还原典型溃坝案例撤离过程,基于人类行为和社会组织机制揭示溃坝撤离系统动力学特征,探索临界预警时间与溃坝生命损失之间的定量关系,促进溃坝撤离技术理论与应用发展。 相似文献
11.
Risk Assessment,Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood,Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts.In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants. 相似文献
12.
Industrial sites are key factors in urban and regional land use planning. Therefore, determining the location of industrial areas is a critical and complex process for development and success. Industrial site selection aims in identifying the most suitable sites for industry creation, considering a set of influential criteria. Therefore, site selection generally and industrial site selection specifically can be categorised as a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem that requires detailed evaluation of various dimensions. This study developed a set of clusters containing 10 selection criteria for industrial site selection in Isfahan metropolitan area, Iran. The relationships between the criteria and clusters were modelled and analysed using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP). AHP and ANP agree in finding distance to water bodies and distance to other industries as the most and least important selection criteria. Four patches have been identified as suitable alternatives for industrial construction. While AHP found Borkhar Patch 1 as the most appropriate alternative, ANP demonstrated the superiority of Ardestan Patch over others. Conducting a sensitivity analysis for the models confirmed both models robustness in industrial site selection decisions. 相似文献
13.
Watershed urbanization and changing flood behavior across the Los Angeles metropolitan region 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
This article examines the effects of watershed urbanization on stream flood behavior in the Los Angeles metropolitan region.
Stream gauge data, spatially distributed rainfall data, land use/land cover, and census population data were used to quantify
change in flood behavior and urbanization in multiple watersheds. Increase in flood discharge started at the very early stage
of the urbanization when the population density was relatively low but the rate of increase of flood discharge varied across
watersheds depending on the distribution of the imperviousness surface and flood mitigation practices. This spatial variability
in rainfall–runoff indices and the increasing flood risk across the metropolitan region has posed a challenge to the conventional
flood emergency management, which usually responds to flood damages rather than being concerned with the broader issues of
land use, land cover, and planning. This study pointed out that alternative land use planning and flood management practices
could be mitigating the urban flood implemented hazard. 相似文献
14.
In this study, an agent-based model is proposed in order to provide new insights into the policy analysis and strategy assessment of city-scale evacuation management. The proposed model is suitable for assessment of the influence of different departure times and communications among peer evacuees on the number of residents at risk who arrive at official shelters. A case study is applied to build a simulation model for the coastal city of Brisbane in Australia. The Brisbane River catchment experiences regular flooding almost every year; the second severest flood since the twentieth century occurred in 2011. During that event, over 15,000 properties were inundated and around 3600 households evacuated in metropolitan Brisbane alone. Making use of high-performance computing clusters, the evacuation simulation was coupled with results from a validated hydrodynamic model to test a variety of escaping scenarios based on the 2011 flood situation. This case study demonstrates the proposed model’s capacity to represent the dynamic evacuation process and also shows that the model is able to help develop flood emergency plans and evaluate response measures through exploring key elements in a range of scenarios. 相似文献
15.
Tsunami hazard in coastal areas susceptible to flooding, although reduced (in terms of probability of occurrence), may pose a high risk. Therefore, in these areas, a detailed evacuation planning of the affected population is required as a risk mitigation measure. The knowledge and enforcement of evacuation routes may reduce the population vulnerability, making it more resilient and reducing risk. This paper presents a GIS approach for modelling evacuation routes based on the optimal path search problem, of the graph theory, which is implemented on ArcCasper tool. The methodology proposed considers the elements involved in the evacuation process, the worst credible tsunami inundation scenario (hazard extent and travel time), the number of people that needs to be evacuated in different time scenarios, the safe areas or destination points of the evacuation routes, the roads network characteristics and finally the time available to evacuate. The knowledge of those elements allows predicting some possible outcomes of the evacuation, such as the arrival time of the evacuees to a shelter and the identification of congestion hot spots resulting from the application of a flocking model which simulates the path to be used by evacuees avoiding obstacles. The municipality of Cascais was used to test the methodology proposed in this study. Cascais is one of the largest urban centres located about 25 km west of Lisbon, Portugal, with a high density of infrastructure along the coastline whereby most of the population and economic activities are exposed to a tsunami. The results, presented in the form of maps, allow identifying the optimal evacuation routes as well as the unfeasible routes. This crucial information could be used to the evacuation optimization regarding the location of meeting points and vertical shelters as well as to improve the accessibility of the areas to be evacuated. 相似文献
16.
17.
It is necessary for China to establish a feasible method to verify whether an emergency evacuation plan (EEP) provides timely evacuation under the threat of flooding as a result of dam failure. Based on simulating the inundation area resulting from failure of the Huaxi Dam, this paper puts forward a quantitative approach to assess the effectiveness of an EEP by estimating the evacuation clearance times. Differences between urban and rural areas are considered, and two transportation modes are selected. Total evacuation clearance times in rural and urban areas are 135 and 80?min, respectively. Results show that total evacuation clearance times are longer than the time it takes for the flood wave to reach some communities in the area. The paper also makes some suggestions on how to decrease the total clearance time and thus enhance the effectiveness of the EEP for the Huaxi Dam. 相似文献
18.
为解决矿井水灾事故应急快速反应、高效决策的现场需求,针对矿井水灾事故的不确定性、复杂性和紧迫性等特点,运用多案例分析法,解析了11起典型矿井水灾事故,提出了判别“情景”和事故“情景”两个关键概念,定义了集合{突水水源,突水通道,采掘方式,出水量,淹没范围,生存空间}为矿井水灾事故的情景,并运用AHP分析法计算了6个情景要素各自的权重。确立了“情景-应对”应用在矿井水灾应急决策领域的实现途径,详细阐述了构建情景库、案例库、对策库的方法以及“情景-应对”型矿井水灾应急决策方案的生成过程,并提出了以“黄金72小时” “8天8夜”为时间节点的多阶段矿井水灾事故应急决策机制,案例推演应用表明,该应急决策机制不仅规范了事故应急流程,而且实现了精准、快速、高效的目标。 相似文献
19.
Deng-Hua Yan Jing Feng Chuan-Zhe Li Tian-Ling Qin Bai-Sha Weng Xin Jin 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(1):577-592
This paper focused on the development of a framework for collective water resources management in China to meet the change of drought and flood. Based on the observational data of drought and flood from 1950 to 2009 and the precipitation from 1961 to 2010, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, the evolutionary characteristic of drought and flood was analyzed. The results showed that drought and flood occurred frequently, simultaneous occurrences of drought and flood and the rapid shift between the two were increasing. The framework for collective strategies responding to drought and flood under this ever-changing environment was presented. A series of potential mitigation, prevention, and adaptation strategies were discussed. These included both planning and implementation side strategies. In regard to planning, the strategies for dealing with drought and flood should be shifted from crisis management to collective management, unifying normal and emergency management. Combination risk zoning of drought and flood should be conducted and collective emergency planning should be formulated. Moreover, the regulation capability of water conservancy projects group should be optimized to the highest possible level. In regard to implementation, based on the water resources collective management, rational water allocation for both normal and extreme value processes should be implemented. The water conservancy project groups for the extreme value process should work together, and the flood limit water level of reservoirs should be controlled dynamically. 相似文献
20.
I. Alberico P. Petrosino G. Maglione L. Bruno F. S. Capaldo A. Dal Piaz L. Lirer S. Mazzola 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1823-1854
Over the past few decades, intense urban expansion has occurred over the Campi Flegrei territorial system without considering the volcanic risk. In this active volcanic area, where a short period evacuation could be necessary, the emergency management cannot be based solely on hazard-related information. The territorial and social features must also be considered. In this framework, the main purpose of this research is to point out the seriousness of the present setting of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case an evacuation is necessary. Following the concept of regional evacuation, the zone to be involved in emergency planning was identified as the whole of the area threatened by the volcanic events of the past 10?ka. Inside this area the spatial relation between the resident distribution and the outflows of roads, railway stations and harbours, to facilitate evacuation, was investigated. A spatial relational GIS-based procedure was used to draw the territorial system vulnerability map, depicting the zones with different capabilities to support the evacuation of residents in case of volcanic activity. Based on the concept that people could leave the dangerous area by the means of transport supplied by Civil Protection, and using the threshold value of over-crowding of 0.70 people/m2, we identified the collection areas for residents to be immediately evacuated in case of volcanic unrest, and five macrozones displaying different capabilities to cope with an emergency phase. 相似文献