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1.
For the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, the physically based model coupling the infinite slope stability
analysis with the hydrological modeling in nearly saturated soil has commonly been used due to its simplicity. However, in
that model the rainfall infiltration in unsaturated soil could not be reliably simulated because a linear diffusion-type Richards’
equation rather than the complete Richards’ equation was used. In addition, the effect of matric suction on the shear strength
of soil was not actually considered. Therefore, except the shallow landslide in saturated soil due to groundwater table rise,
the shallow landslide induced by the loss in unsaturated shear strength due to the dissipation of matric suction could not
be reliably assessed. In this study, a physically based model capable of assessing shallow landslides in variably saturated
soils is developed by adopting the complete Richards’ equation with the effect of slope angle in the rainfall infiltration
modeling and using the extended Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion to describe the unsaturated shear strength in the soil failure
modeling. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on shallow landslide is investigated using the developed model.
The result shows that the rainfall intensity and duration seem to have similar influence on shallow landslides respectively
triggered by the increase of positive pore water pressure in saturated soil and induced by the dissipation of matric suction
in unsaturated soil. The rainfall duration threshold decreases with the increase in rainfall intensity, but remains constant
for large rainfall intensity. 相似文献
2.
Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfall-induced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity-Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches. 相似文献
3.
A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.
Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.
A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].
Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.
New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism. 相似文献
4.
The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds 总被引：25，自引：0，他引：25
Mark T. J. Terlien 《Environmental Geology》1998,35(2-3):124-130
Hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds separate combinations of daily and antecedent rainfall or of rainfall intensity
and duration that triggered landslides from those that failed to trigger landslides. They are required for the development
of landslide early warning systems. When a large data set on rainfall and landslide occurrence is available, hydrological
triggering thresholds are determined in a statistical way. When the data on landslide occurrence is limited, deterministic
models have to be used. For shallow landslides directly triggered by percolating rainfall, triggering thresholds can be established
by means of one-dimensional hydrological models linked to the infinite slope model. In the case of relatively deep landslides
located in topographic hollows and triggered by a slow accumulation of water at the soil-bedrock contact, simple correlations
between landslide occurrence and rainfall can no longer be established. Therefore real-time failure probabilities have to
be determined using hydrological catchment models in combination with the infinite slope model.
Received: 15 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 相似文献
5.
Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is interrupted. These results lead to the identification of a comprehensive hydrogeomorphological model of susceptibility to initial landslides that links morphological, stratigraphical and hydrological conditions. The calculation of intensities and durations of rainfall necessary for slope instability allowed the identification of deterministic hydrological thresholds that account for uncertainty in properties and observed rainfall intensities. 相似文献
6.
A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through
a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level
of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980.
The rainfall intensity–duration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased
rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range
of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was
determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with
differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions,
the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was
obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained
global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23–27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide
operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not
available.. 相似文献
7.
A rainfall-induced shallow landslide is a major hazard in mountainous terrain, but a time-space based approach is still an unsettled issue for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards. Rain induces a rise of the groundwater level and an increase in pore water pressure that results in slope failures. In this study, an integrated infinite slope analysis model has been developed to evaluate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. Based on this new integrated infinite slope analysis model, a time-space based approach has been implemented to map the distributed landslide hazard in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and to evaluate the shallow slope failure induced by a particular rainfall event that accounts for the rainfall intensity and duration. The case study results in a comprehensive time-space landslide hazard map that illustrates the change of the safety factor and the depth of the wetting front over time. 相似文献
8.
Cheng-Yu Ku Chih-Yu Liu Yan Su Jing-En Xiao Chi-Chao Huang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(16):570
This study investigates the transient modeling of regional rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in unsaturated soil using the Richards equation. To model shallow landslides within a distributed regional-scale framework, infinite slope stability analysis coupled with the hydrological model with consideration of the fluctuation of time-dependent pore water pressure and the soil–water characteristic curve proposed by van Genuchten was developed. The validity of the proposed model is established through several test problems by comparing the numerical results with the analytical solutions. A new procedure to set up wide-range shallow landslide analysis and to integrate regional distribution variations for input data such as geology, groundwater level, hydrogeological characteristics, and rainfall intensity and duration was presented. The results obtained demonstrate that the computed distribution of the safety factor is consistent with the distribution of actual landslides. In addition, the fluctuation of pore water pressure in unsaturated soil dominates the stability of landslides during typhoons accompanied by heavy rainfall. The findings observed in this study are a fundamental contribution to environmental effects for landslides in areas with higher occurrence and vulnerability to extreme precipitation. 相似文献
9.
A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures 总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22
It is widely recognised that soil slips and debris flows are triggered by short intense storms. Owing its geologic, geomorphologic and climatic settings, the Piedmont Region (NW Italy) is highly prone to the occurrence of this kind of landslides. In the last two centuries, in fact, a total of 105 severe meteoric events which triggered shallow failures occurred and, of these, 18 events took place from 1990 to 2002. A fair number of rainfall thresholds have been proposed in the literature, defined both on empirical or on physical bases. Empirical thresholds are defined collecting rainfall data for landslide meteoric events and for events without landslides, while physical thresholds are based on numerical models that consider the relation between rainfall, pore pressure and slope stability. The main objective of this paper is the identification of the empirical triggering thresholds for the Piedmont Region. Four meteoric events were selected and analysed (November 4–5, 1994; July 7–8, 1996; April 27–30, 2000; October 13–16, 2000) because they supply a wide range of variation for both rainfall parameters (duration, intensity, cumulative rainfalls) and the number of induced landslides. In the intensity–duration plot, the critical limit is described by the equation: I=19D−0.50 (where I=rainfall intensity expressed in mm/h and D=rainfall duration expressed in hours). Such a limit is traced to envelop 90% of the points on the graph. In the NI–D diagram the triggering thresholds are given by the equations NI=0.76D−0.33 and NI=4.62D−0.79 (where NI=normalised intensity with respect to the annual precipitation, MAP, expressed in %, [(mm/h)/PMA]×100). In the article the different meaning of these thresholds is discussed. Finally, the diagram NI–NCR is proposed; the triggering threshold is given by the expression: NI=−0.09ln[NCR]+0.54 (where NCR is the normalised cumulative critical rainfall, [mm/PMA]×100). The application of the triggering thresholds as a fundamental element in a warning system dedicated to the safeguarding of population in landslide-prone areas is discussed. In detail an operating procedure which is presently being verified and tested in the studied area is described. 相似文献
10.
Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Diana Salciarini Jonathan W. Godt William Z. Savage Rex L. Baum Pietro Conversini 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):227
To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics. 相似文献
11.
降雨诱发的浅层黄土泥流规模小、流速快、冲击力强、发育范围广、难以防御、致灾频率高,近两年造成了大量人员伤亡,急需开展其形成机制与强度的研究。黄土物质组成与水敏性、坡体形态对降雨入渗—积水的响应、黄土斜坡对降水入渗的力学响应机制、富水黄土粘滞性流动特性是制约浅层黄土泥流形成的四种主要因素,分析这四种因素的对浅层黄土泥流形成的制约作用需解决斜坡降雨入渗的水文过程、非饱和土的力学效应及水土耦合的机制等前沿问题。本文对影响泥流形成的各因素研究的最新进展进行了综述,同时讨论了研究中的核心问题,并提出了相应的对策与方案,认为可从三方面开展研究:(1)定量描述泥流体积扩容特征,建立浅层黄土泥流启动与流动模式;(2)分析泥流与原状黄土物质成分、组成结构差异,开展黄土非饱和增湿力学变形试验,监测0°~60°单面坡与坡肩平缓斜坡的降雨入渗过程,研究坡体形态对雨水汇聚、入渗及基质吸力变化的控制特征,揭示泥流流体运动过程中水土响应机制;(3)对浅层黄土泥流物理力学模型进行解析,讨论泥流流动能量转化特征,建立降雨诱发泥流灾害的强度计算模型,为降雨泥流灾害危险性定量计算提供理论支撑。 相似文献
12.
Rainfall thresholds for prediction of shallow landslides around Chamoli-Joshimath region,Garhwal Himalayas,India 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Majority of landslides in the Indian sub-continent are triggered by rainfall. Several attempts in the global scenario have been made to establish rainfall thresholds in terms of intensity-duration and antecedent rainfall models on global, regional and local scales for the occurrence of landslides. However, in the context of the Indian Himalayas, the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences are not yet understood fully. Neither on regional scale nor on local scale, establishing such rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in Indian Himalayas has yet been attempted. This paper presents an attempt towards deriving local rainfall thresholds for landslides based on daily rainfall data in and around Chamoli-Joshimath region of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Around 128 landslides taken place in last 4 years from 2009 to 2012 have been studied to derive rainfall thresholds. Out of 128 landslides, however, rainfall events pertaining to 81 landslides were analysed to yield an empirical intensity–duration threshold for landslide occurrences. The rainfall threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the landslide triggering rainfall events is I?=?1.82 D ?0.23 (I?=?rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour and D?=?duration in hours). It is revealed that for rainfall events of shorter duration (≤24 h) with a rainfall intensity of 0.87 mm/h, the risk of landslide occurrence in this part of the terrain is expected to be high. Also, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was analysed by considering daily rainfall at failure and different period cumulative rainfall prior to failure considering all 128 landslides. It is observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 55 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 185 mm are required for the initiation of landslides in this area. These rainfall thresholds presented in this paper may be improved with the hourly rainfall data vis-à-vis landslide occurrences and also data of later years. However, these thresholds may be used in landslide warning systems for this particular region of the Garhwal Himalayas to guide the traffic and provide safety to the tourists travelling along this pilgrim route during monsoon seasons. 相似文献
13.
Dennis M. Staley Jason W. Kean Susan H. Cannon Kevin M. Schmidt Jayme L. Laber 《Landslides》2013,10(5):547-562
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds. 相似文献
14.
Landslide-prone slopes in earthquake-affected areas commonly feature heterogeneity and high permeability due to the presence of cracks and fissures that were caused by ground shaking. Landslide reactivation in heterogeneous slope may be affected by preferential flow that was commonly occurred under heavy rainfall. Current hydro-mechanical models that are based on a single-permeability model consider soil as a homogeneous continuum, which, however, cannot explicitly represent the hydraulic properties of heterogeneous soil. The present study adopted a dual-permeability model, using two Darcy-Richards equations to simulate the infiltration processes in both matrix and preferential flow domains. The hydrological results were integrated with an infinite slope stability approach, attempting to investigate the hydro-mechanical behavior. A coarse-textured unstable slope in an earthquake-affected area was chosen for conducting artificial rainfall experiment, and in the experiment slope, failure was triggered several times under heavy rainfall. The simulated hydro-mechanical results of both single- and dual-permeability model were compared with the measurements, including soil moisture content, pore water pressure, and slope stability conditions. Under high-intensity rainfall, the measured soil moisture and pore water pressure at 1-m depth showed faster hydrological response than its simulations, which can be regarded as a typical evidence of preferential flow. We found the dual-permeability model substantially improved the quantification of hydro-mechanical processes. Such improvement could assist in obtaining more reliable landslide-triggering predication. In the light of the implementation of a dual-permeability model for slope stability analysis, a more flexible and robust early warning system for shallow landslides hazard in coarse-textured slopes could be provided. 相似文献
15.
Ogbonnaya Igwe Wilfred Mode Okechukwu Nnebedum Ikenna Okonkwo Ifeanyi Oha 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(5):2465-2480
This paper analyses the dominant mechanisms of slope failures and identifies potential obstacles to landslide-hazard reduction at the Iva Valley area, Enugu, Nigeria. The landscape is replete with landslide scars and gullies of varied sizes and the slope deposits comprise unconsolidated, friable sands inter-bedded with thin units of montmorillonitic claystone. Forty-three landslide events were identified in the study area with most being shallow, short run-out movements with slip-surface depth <2 m. The study found the landslides mainly occur in the beginning of rainy season characterized by short duration, high intensity rainfall. An integrated approach comprising field mapping, laboratory tests and numerical analyses reveals that the barren nature of the slopes prior to the outset of rainy season, high rainfall intensity, erosion, overgrazing, soil characteristics and the site’s unique lithologic sequence are the main causes of instability. Shearing tests under several conditions showed that the soils strongly strain-soften until low steady-state strength is achieved. A computer code, based on this strength reduction technique, used input parameters obtained from the field and laboratory studies to simulate a landslide with similar structure, travel distance and distribution area. It is noted that urbanization has gradually increased the vulnerability of the society’s poor to landslide hazards as they now erect unplanned residence (tents and blocks) on the slopes. This work is part of a regional study aimed at finding ways of protecting the vulnerable by generating data that could be used to build future landslide susceptibility map. 相似文献
16.
Edier Aristizábal Jaime Ignacio Vélez Hernán Eduardo Martínez Michel Jaboyedoff 《Landslides》2016,13(3):497-517
Landslides are a main cause of human and economic losses worldwide. For this reason, landslide hazard assessment and the capacity to predict this phenomenon have been topics of great interest within the scientific community for the implementation of early warning systems. Although several models have been proposed to forecast shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, few models have incorporated geotechnical factors into a complete hydrological model of a basin that can simulate the storage and movement of rainwater through the soil profile. These basin and full hydrological models have adopted a physically based approach. This paper develops a conceptual and physically based model called open and distributed hydrological simulation and landslides—SHIA_Landslide (Simulación HIdrológica Abierta, or SHIA, in Spanish)—that is supported by geotechnical and hydrological features occurring on a basin-wide scale in tropical and mountainous terrains. SHIA_Landslide is an original and significant contribution that offers a new perspective with which to analyse shallow landslide processes by incorporating a comprehensive distributed hydrological tank model that includes water storage in the soil coupled with a classical analysis of infinite slope stability under saturated conditions. SHIA_Landslide can be distinguished by the following: (i) its capacity to capture surface topography and effects concerning the subsurface flow; (ii) its use of digital terrain model (DTM) to establish the relationships among cells, geomorphological parameters, slope angle, direction, etc.; (iii) its continuous simulation of rainfall data over long periods and event simulations of specific storms; (iv) its consideration of the effects of horizontal and vertical flow; and (vi) its inclusion of a hydrologically complete water process that allows for hydrological calibration. SHIA_Landslide can be combined with real-time rainfall data and implemented in early warning systems. 相似文献
17.
Giacomo D’Amato Avanzi Francesco Falaschi Roberto Giannecchini Alberto Puccinelli 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(3):591-603
This study aims at contributing to the soil slip susceptibility assessment in a typical basin of the southern Apuan Alps,
Italy. On June 1996, this basin (Cardoso Torrent, 13 km2 large) was hit by an extremely heavy rainstorm (maximum intensity of about 160 mm/h), which caused many landslides (debris
slide–debris flows) and valley bottom flows (hyperconcentrated flows), destruction and deaths. Detailed surveys provided the
characterization of the main factors (geological, geomorphologic, hydrological, hydrogeological and geotechnical) which contributed
in triggering landslides. In order to evaluate the soil slip susceptibility in this area, a physically based model was applied
and a GIS analysis of digital elevation model was performed. This approach couples a mechanical model based on an infinite
slope form of the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, and a steady-state hydrological one (a modified version of Shalstab, which
considers the cohesion of the debris material potentially involved in landsliding). GIS techniques allowed evaluating the
effects of topographic convergence and drainage area on slope failure. In this way, based on the infiltration rate, the triggering
of the June 1996 landslides was simulated and the critical rainfall thresholds assessed at about 200–250 mm/24 h. 相似文献
18.
Apip Kaoru Takara Yosuke Yamashiki Kyoji Sassa Agung Bagiawan Ibrahim Hiroshi Fukuoka 《Landslides》2010,7(3):237-258
This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall
estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating
a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced
by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines
the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment:
(1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is
divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the
effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked
with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement
in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The
stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability.
A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is
the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment
(2,310 km2), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of
documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model
can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables
that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids
over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability
of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings. 相似文献
19.
The common slope stability analysis is incapable of accurately forecasting shallow slides where suction pressures play a critical role. This realization is used for elaborate stability analyses which include soil suction to better predict rainfall-induced slides at railway embankment at Malda where three known cases of slope failures and train derailments occurred after heavy rainfall. The relationship between the soil–water content and the matric suction is established for the embankment soil. It is then used in the coupled analyses of seepage and slope stability to estimate performances of the embankment at different intensity and duration of rainfall. The numerical simulations are performed with the FE code Geo-Studio. The numerical results show significant reduction in the factor of safety of the railway embankment with the increase in the intensity and duration of rainfall. The effectiveness of the proposed mitigation measures including placement of 2 m-wide free draining rockfill across the slopes and drilling 5-m-long sheet pile wall at the toe of the embankment is studied numerically. The study confirms that the proposed mitigation measures effectively increase the factor of safety of the embankment and stabilizing it even in case of a heavy rainfall of 25 mm/h over 12 h. 相似文献
20.
降雨条件下浅层滑坡稳定性探讨 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
降雨条件下浅层滑坡是一种常见、多发的地质灾害现象,为了解边坡稳定性随降雨入渗过程的变化情况,以Green-Ampt入渗模型为基础,并考虑了动水压力的作用,建立了降雨入渗条件下浅层滑坡的概念模型,分别推导了降雨前有、无地下水位条件下的边坡安全系数与降雨时间的关系表达式。从分析结果中可以看出,对于这两种情况下边坡稳定性发生突变的主要原因归结于：前者为在湿润锋与地下水位面接触的短时间内,滑带处的孔隙水压力迅速增高;后者为滑带在浸水饱和情况下,岩土体的强度迅速降低。在此基础上,根据降雨过程中边坡是否达到饱和,提出边坡饱和临界时间的概念,考虑了初始降雨强度小于土壤入渗能力的情况。这个时间可以作为一个参数指标用于浅层滑坡的预警。 相似文献