共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
热带气旋是危害中国最严重的天气系统,分析和认识中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动的新特征对防灾减灾具有重要意义。依据近70年气象资料,采用统计学方法,对登陆中国沿海的热带气旋特征进行分析,研究发现:在气候变化的背景下,登陆中国的热带气旋发生了明显变化。近年台风登陆频数高于往年平均,其整体强度和最大值均呈增大趋势,年台风强度的不稳定性加剧;研究还发现台风强度越高,其生成地纬度带范围越窄且越靠近赤道;建立了高强度热带气旋（STY和SUPER TY）时间和纬度的关系"φ—m"。检验了台风季长与初旋日呈负相关且不受厄尔尼诺现象影响,台风季长符合正态分布并给出概率密度公式。 相似文献
2.
Luis M. Farfán Eurico J. D’Sa Kam-biu Liu Victor H. Rivera-Monroy 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(6):1388-1402
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are large-scale natural disturbances that generate strong winds and heavy rainfall, impacting coastal and inland environments. TCs also influence biogeochemical and hydrological cycles controlling aquatic primary productivity in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystems. We assessed TC landfall activity and identified sites along the Mexican east and west coasts with high frequency in the period 1970–2010 and evaluated TCs with significant precipitation. Changes in chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations before and after storm impacts were estimated using remotely sensed ocean color. There were 1,065 named TCs with a wide diversity in tracks. Three states with the highest number of landfalls were identified: Baja California Sur and Sinaloa on the west coast and Quintana Roo on the east coast. While a relative increase in Chl-a values following TC landfalls in the Baja California and Yucatán Peninsula regions appeared to be strongly linked to TC strength, the intensity of precipitation, the spatial scales of the two peninsulas, and the relative movement of TCs appeared to have contributed to Chl-a variability. Satellite estimates of Chl-a in the nearshore coastal waters following TC passage were likely enhanced by coastal morphology and water discharge along with constituents such as suspended particulate, colored dissolved organic matter and nutrients from rivers, tributaries, and groundwater. 相似文献
3.
Tropical cyclone (TC) disasters have frequently caused casualties in the coastal areas of China. According to the statistics of dead and missing people due to TCs from 1951 to 2014, the number of fatalities has been significantly decreasing over time. However, deadly TC events have still caused great losses of life in recent years, which are characterized as significant abrupt fluctuations superimposed along the downward trend of the long-term fatality time series. The numbers of fatalities caused by TC disasters are influenced by variables such as the intensity of TC hazards, the population exposed to TCs and the vulnerability of people to TC hazards. It is thus of great significance to analyze their temporal characteristics and understand the forces driving these changes. First, the time series of the TC wind, precipitation, spatial distribution of population, fatality and disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures of China from 1951 to 2014 are reconstructed. Second, the improved power dissipation index, total precipitation, integrated intensity and index of exposed population are calculated, and the population vulnerability indices, including mean and relative fatality rates, are derived. Third, the change trend of each index is detected using the Mann–Kendall test. Finally, the main driving factors of the long-term change trend and fluctuations of the TC fatalities are analyzed by a negative binomial regression model and standard deviation statistics. It is found that the decrease in vulnerability based on the improvement in structural and non-structural measures is the main driving force of the decreases in fatalities over the past six decades. Although the total population and exposure have increased dramatically in the coastal areas of China, their contributions to the increase in the fatality risk were counteracted by the decrease in vulnerability. Abrupt and catastrophic disasters were mostly caused by TCs with hazards of high intensity that surpassed the capacity of structural measures; the lack of forecasting or early warning, as well as improper emergency response actions, may also have triggered the great loss of lives. To reduce the fatalities of future TCs, especially those that may exceed the capacity of structural measures, the enhancement of non-structural measures and the adaptation of resilience strategies should be priorities for future people-centered disaster management.
相似文献4.
基于1960—2017年2 000多个气象台站逐日降水数据和中国气象局热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料集,采用客观天气图分析法(OSAT)识别得到TC降水。研究表明,中国TC降水总体呈显著下降趋势,较12年前的研究结果下降趋势变缓;TC盛期(7~9月)降水占到TC总降水的78.5%,TC盛期降水和TC非盛期降水均呈显著下降趋势。TC降水气候趋势在空间分布上以减少为主要特征,并表现出明显的地域差异,自南向北呈"减少—增多—减少"的分布型,减少趋势中心位于广东和海南。按TC影响期最大强度分级(弱TC、中等强度TC和强TC)研究不同强度TC降水的变化,结果显示,强TC降水表现出显著减少趋势,主要决定着TC总降水的影响范围和趋势等主要特征。进一步分析发现,影响TC频数在1960—2017年呈显著减少趋势,并在1995年发生突变;对1995年前后2个时期的对比研究显示,与前一时期(1960—1994年)相比,后一时期(1995—2017年)影响TC活动频次在20°N以南的海域呈现出显著的减少趋势,减少大值中心位于南海北部,而且这一特征也主要由影响TC中的强TC所决定;强TC的这一变化趋势导致了华南地区尤其是广东和海南TC降水日数的减少,进而使得TC降水减少。 相似文献
5.
Based on the daily precipitation data of more than 2 000 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2017 and the tropical cyclone (TC) best-track data of the China Meteorological Administration, the TC precipitation was identified by the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT). The research shows that the TC precipitation in China has a significant downward trend, which is slower than that of the research results 12 years ago. The TC precipitation in the peaking season (July to Sepember) accounted for 78.5% of the total TC precipitation. Both TC precipitation in peaking season and other months showed a significant downward trend. The TC precipitation climate trend is mainly characterized by reduction in spatial distribution, and shows obvious regional differences. From south to north, there is a distribution of “decreasing-increasing-decreasing”, and the decreasing trend centers are located in Guangdong and Hainan. According to the maximum intensity in the TC influence period, we classified TCs into three levels (weak TCs, medium intensity TCs and strong TCs) and studied the variations of TC precipitation in different intensities. The results show that the strong TC precipitation shows a significant decrease trend, which mainly determines the influence range and trend of TC total precipitation. Further analysis found that the frequency of affecting TC showed a significant reduction trend during the time period of 1960-2017 and an abrupt shift occurred in 1995. A comparative study of the two periods before and after 1995 showed that compared with the previous period (1960-1994), the frequency of TCs in the latter period (1995-2017) showed a significant decreasing trend in the south of 20°N. The maximum decreasing center was located in the northern part of the South China Sea, and this feature was mainly affected by the strong TC. It was decided that this trend of strong TC led to a decrease trend in the number of precipitation days in South China, especially in Guangdong and Hainan, which led to a decrease trend in TC precipitation. 相似文献
6.
Praharaj Shraddha Chen T. Donna Zahura Faria T. Behl Madhur Goodall Jonathan L. 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(3):2363-2380
Predicting tropical cyclone (TCs) tracks is a primary concern in TC forecasting. Some TCs appear to move in a direction favorable for their development, beyond the influence of the steering flow. Thus, we hypothesize that TCs move toward regions with high water-vapor content in the lower atmosphere. In this study, four numerical experiments, including a control experiment and three sensitivity experiments, were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, to analyze the relationship between water vapor distribution and the track of Severe Typhoon Hato (2017). Observations validated the features reproduced in the control experiment. The sensitivity experiments were conducted to explore variations in the TC track under different water vapor environments. Results indicate that the horizontal distribution of water-vapor content exerted a greater impact on the TC track than the steering flow when both factors were significant. Further analysis revealed that the TC’s movement vector was between the direction of the steering flow and the direction toward the peak of vorticity increasing area. The peaks of vorticity increasing area were close to the peaks of water vapor increasing area, which also proved the effect of water vapor distribution on the TC track. These results are expected to improve TC track analysis and forecasting.
相似文献7.
This paper discusses the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) based on available data from 1951 to 2008, including the
frequency of TC generation in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and those which make landfall in China. The impacts of TCs on
both human and economic losses for the period 1983–2008 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing
trend in the generation of TCs in the WNP since the 1980s, but the number of TCs making landfall has remained constant or
shown only a slight decreasing trend. The number of casualties caused by TCs in China appears to show a slight decreasing
trend while the value of economic loss is increasing significantly. These results can be attributed to increased natural disaster
prevention and mitigation efforts by the Chinese government in recent years, and also reflect the rapid economic development
in China particularly in TC-prone areas. 相似文献
8.
Every year, Australian oceans experience the genesis of many tropical cyclones (TCs). About 40 percent of these make landfall. Because of the enormous difference in impacts between landfalling and non-landfalling TCs on coastal communities, the benefits would be enormous if it were possible to capture early the potentiality of landfall of a TC that has undergone genesis. Published literature identifies many factors such as location, warm sea surface temperature above 26 °C, conditional instability and high relative humidity in the middle troposphere and low vertical wind shear for the genesis of cyclones. Some of these factors could hold information about the potentiality of landfall while a TC is forming. An investigation into these factors actually revealed that a landfall potential index can be developed that can capture the potentiality of making a landfall. An attractive feature of this index is that it uses values at the time and location of genesis, providing a long and useful lead time. Furthermore, it is made into a dimensionless number, which makes for easy comprehension and interpretation. 相似文献
9.
The genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Indian seas comprising of Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) is highly seasonal with primary maximum in postmonsoon season (mid-September to December) and secondary maximum during premonsoon season (April and May). The present study is focused to demonstrate changes in genesis and intensity of TCs over Indian seas in warming environment. For this purpose, observational data of TCs, obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), are analyzed. The sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind speed, and potential evaporation factor (PEF), obtained from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), are also analyzed to examine the possible linkage with variations in TC activities over Indian seas. The study period has been divided into two epochs: past cooling period (PCP, period up to 1950) and current warming period (CWP, period after 1950) based on SST anomaly (became positive from 1950) over the BoB and AS. The study reveals that the number of severe cyclones (SCS) increases significantly (statistically significant at 99% confidence level) by about 41% during CWP though no such significant change is observed in cyclonic disturbances (CDs) and cyclones (CS) over Indian seas. It is also observed that the rate of dissipation of CS and SCS over Indian seas has been decreasing considerably by about 63 and 71%, respectively, during CWP. The analysis shows that the BoB contributes about 75% in each category of TCs and remaining 25% by the AS towards total of Indian seas. A detailed examination on genesis and intensity of TC over both the basins and the seasons illustrates that significant enhancement of SCS by about 65% during CWP is confined to the postmonsoon season of the BoB. Further, the BoB is sub-divided into northern, central, and southern sectors and the AS into western and eastern sectors based on genesis of TCs and SST gradient. Results show that in postmonsoon season during CWP, the number of SCS increases significantly by about 71% in southern BoB and 300% over western AS. 相似文献
10.
Suman Goyal M Mohapatra Ashish Kumar S K Dube Kushagra Rajendra P Goswami 《Journal of Earth System Science》2016,125(7):1353-1363
Indian region is severely affected by the tropical cyclones (TCs) due to the long coast line of about 7500 km. Hence, whenever any low level circulation (LLC) forms over the Indian Seas, the prediction of its intensification into a TC is very essential for the management of TC disaster. Satellite Application Centre (SAC) of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ahmedabad, has developed a technique to predict TCs based on scatterometer-derived winds from the polar orbiting satellite, QuikSCAT and Oceansat-II. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has acquired the technique and verified it for the years 2010–2013 for operational use. The model is based on the concept of analogs of the sea surface wind distribution at the stage of LLC or vortex (T1.0) as per Dvorak’s classifications, which eventually leads to cyclogenesis (T2.5). The results indicate that the developed model could predict cyclogenesis with a probability of detection of 61% and critical success index of 0.29. However, it shows high over-prediction of the model is better over the Bay of Bengal than over Arabian Sea and during post-monsoon season (September–December) than in pre-monsoon season (March–June). 相似文献
11.
Monica Laureano Bozeman Dev Niyogi S. Gopalakrishnan Frank D. Marks Jr. Xuejin Zhang Vijay Tallapragada 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(3):1543-1571
While tropical cyclones (TCs) usually decay after landfall, Tropical Storm Fay (2008) initially developed a storm central eye over South Florida by anomalous intensification overland. Unique to the Florida peninsula are Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, which may have provided a surface feedback as the TC tracked near these features around the time of peak intensity. Analysis is done with the use of an ensemble model-based approach with the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) version of the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) model using an outer domain and a storm-centered moving nest with 27- and 9-km grid spacing, respectively. Choice of land surface parameterization and small-scale surface features may influence TC structure, dictate the rate of TC decay, and even the anomalous intensification after landfall in model experiments. Results indicate that the HWRF model track and intensity forecasts are sensitive to three features in the model framework: land surface parameterization, initial boundary conditions, and the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Land surface parameterizations such as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Slab and Noah land surface models (LSMs) dominate the changes in storm track, while initial conditions and PBL schemes cause the largest changes in the TC intensity overland. Land surface heterogeneity in Florida from removing surface features in model simulations shows a small role in the forecast intensity change with no substantial alterations to TC track. 相似文献
12.
西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
热带气旋和台风是严重的突发性自然灾害之一。近20年来，对热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究成为台风领域的一个重要研究方向，并取得了显著的研究进展。通过对西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的季节、年际和年代际时间尺度变化的研究回顾，揭示了造成热带气旋和台风活动不同时间尺度变化的主要影响机制，其中包括低频振荡、季风槽和西传赤道波动、ENSO和QBO现象等，这些系统主要通过改变西北太平洋上空的环流，而影响到西北太平洋热带气旋活动以及登陆我国台风的不同时间尺度变化。还在西北太平洋海域热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展和作者最新的研究成果的基础上，展望了该领域的研究前景，并提出当前此研究领域中一些亟需研究的科学问题，主要包括了季风槽区能量交换、不同海域动力过程、赤道波动演变，以及热带气旋的季节和更长时间尺度的预测。 相似文献
13.
研究了1948-2001年南、北半球及欧亚大陆、非洲大陆、澳洲大陆、北美大陆、南美大陆、南极大陆和中国 7个大尺度区域 6～8月降水的长期趋势变化和年代际变化。结果表明，南、北半球 6～8月的降水都为负趋势，但南半球降水的负趋势在统计上不显著。在54年的时间段内，南半球 6～8月降水的递减速度为 0．12 mm／a，仅为北半球同期降水减幅（0．24 mm／a）的一半。南、北半球 6～8月降水量年代际尺度的振荡都非常明显，但是，南、北半球年代际变化的特征明显不同。目前北半球仍是在少雨时间段，而南半球处在降水量正常或多雨的时间段。分析还表明，非洲大陆 6～ 8月降水的年代际特征最明显，降水的负趋势也最为显著；欧亚大陆 6～8月降水也有着明显的年代际变化与明显的负趋势变化；澳洲大陆 6～8月降水的年际变化明显，年代际变化相对来说要小得多；北美大陆 6～8月降水的年际变化明显，但无明显的趋势变化。此外，分析了大尺度区域 6～ 8月降水之间的相关关系，发现部分区域大尺度降水量之间有明显的联系；分析了中国夏季降水的长期变化，发现中国夏季降水的年代际变化明显，但无明显的趋势变化。 相似文献
14.
One very specific operational requirement of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Programme of the Regional Specialized Meteorological
Centre, New Delhi is to provide 12-hourly forecasts valid up to 48 h (preferably 72 h) on the intensity of cyclones over the
southern Indian Seas. In this paper, a simple empirical model for predicting the intensity of TCs occurring in the Bay of
Bengal is proposed. The model parameter has been determined from a database assembled on 30 recent cyclones, and the model
itself is based on the assumption that a TC intensifies exponentially. A method for correcting the forecast during subsequent
observation hours (6- or 12-h intervals) is also presented. The results show that the forecast skill for forecasts of up to
48 h is reasonably good. The absolute mean errors are less than 12 knots for 48-h forecasts, with the forecast skill decreasing
with time. With the incorporation of a correction procedure based on the latest observations, some improvement in the forecast
skill can be obtained. The model is expected to be useful to operational forecasters. 相似文献
15.
Differences in atmospheric and oceanic environments which affect the tropical cyclone (TC) activity between the late twenty-first century (2071?C2100, A1B) and the late twentieth century (1971?C2000, 20C3M) are analyzed using multi-model ensemble from 15 general circulation models. Six factors (vertical wind shear, 700?hPa relative humidity, 850?hPa relative vorticity, outgoing longwave radiation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature) related to TC genesis predicts that more TCs in the future will occur than in the present. The result of maximum potential intensity analysis shows the frequency of occurrence and influence of stronger TCs will increase over the western North Pacific in the future. Anomalous northerly in the mid-latitudes of East Asia due to the strengthening of west-high and east-low pressure system pattern in the future plays an important role in blocking TC from moving toward mid-latitudes of East Asia. The multiple linear regression model (MLRM) developed using six predictors (independent variables) analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data predicts that total TC genesis frequency during July to October (JASO), which predicted using data of 20C3M, will have more (2?C3) TCs than in the present. 相似文献
16.
《China Geology》2022,5(3):411-420
A large number of antibiotics have been discharged into rivers by human activities, posing a threat to aquatic ecosystems. The surface water of the Yellow River Basin also suffers antibiotic pollution, which hinders the improvement in the aquatic ecological environment. This study investigated and analyzed the characteristics and assessed the ecological risks of antibiotic pollution in surface water bodies such as canals, rivers and fish ponds in Kaifeng, Henan Province, which is a key city along the lower reaches of the Yellow River. The test results are as follows. A total of 15 types of antibiotics were detected in the surface water. They had a total antibiotic concentration of 12.2–249.9 μg/L, of which tetracyclines (TCs) and quinolones accounted for the highest percentages. Six types of quinolones had detection rates of up to 100%, and doxycycline (DC) and oxytetracycline (OTC) had average concentrations of 29.52 μg/L1 and 13.71 μg/L, respectively. The major canals with water diverted from the Yellow River had total concentrations of quinolones and TCs of 22. 0 μg/L and 14.9 μg/L, respectively, which were higher than those in previous studies. This phenomenon may be related to the decrease in the water flow of the Yellow River during the dry season and the increase in the antibiotic consumption of residents in the context of the Covid-19 outbreak. The upper reaches of the Huiji River in the Xiangfu District had higher antibiotic content than other districts in Kaifeng. Specifically, TCs accounted for 72.38%–91.84% of all antibiotics, and the DC and OTC concentrations were significantly higher than other antibiotics in the upper reaches. As indicated by the ecological risk assessment results, TCs had the highest ecological risks to green algae. Among them, DC had medium-high risks; TC, OTC, and chlortetracycline (CTC) had medium-high risks; trimethoprim (TMP) and lomefloxacin (LOM) had low risks; other TC antibiotics had no risk. Compared with green algae, most antibiotics showed higher ecological risks to daphnia and lower ecological risks to fish. DC and OTC dominate antibiotic pollutants in the surface water in Kaifeng City, and especially in Xiangfu District, where DC and OTC have medium-high risks. The TCs in the major Yellow River showed medium risks to both green algae and daphnia. It can be speculated that the antibiotic pollution in the Yellow River might pose a certain threat to the ecological security of water in Kaifeng City.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office. 相似文献
17.
Natural Hazards - Tropical cyclones (TCs) of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) cause catastrophic loss over the coasts at the time of landfall in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. To strengthen... 相似文献
18.
Veterinary antibiotics contamination in water, sediment, and soil near a swine manure composting facility 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Yasser M. Awad Sung-Chul Kim Samy A. M. Abd El-Azeem Kye-Hoon Kim Kwon-Rae Kim Kangjoo Kim Choong Jeon Sang Soo Lee Yong Sik Ok 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(3):1433-1440
Antibiotics have been commonly used to prevent animal diseases and promote livestock productivity. However, its release into the surrounding environments leads to ecological disturbance and risks to human health. This study was conducted to monitor the occurrence and seasonal variations of antibiotics in water, sediment, and soil close to a swine manure composting facility, Korea. Various types of antibiotics such as tetracyclines (TCs) including tetracycline, chlortetracycline, and oxytetracycline, and sulfonamides (SAs) including sulfamethazine, sulfamethoxazole, and sulfathiazole were measured by the high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry via a solid-phase extraction. In the results it was identified that the variations of measured antibiotics’ concentrations in water, sediment, and soil are depending on the season. The observed concentration levels of TCs were higher in winter than in summer season, indicating that the low temperature is a parameter attributing to interruption of its degradation in water, sediment, and soil. The concentration levels of SAs were significantly higher than those of TCs and in general, all measured antibiotics’ concentrations were also in general higher in Korea when compared to those in other countries. The long-term monitoring of antibiotics’ residues in aquatic and terrestrial environments is necessary. 相似文献
19.
全球土壤湿度的记忆性及其气候效应 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
利用1948-2010年全球GPCC月平均降水,GHCN_CAMS月平均气温资料,GLDAS-NOAH月平均、3h土壤湿度和降水资料以及观测资料,分析了土壤湿度与降水和气温之间的关系。结果表明：全球土壤湿度记忆性的时间尺度在20~110d不等,干旱地区浅层（0~10cm）土壤湿度记忆性较短,中深层（10~200cm）较长,湿润区及高山地区土壤湿度记忆性均较长,北半球春季土壤湿度记忆性最长,南半球夏季土壤湿度记忆性最长;降水和气温对同期土壤湿度在不同地区的作用不同,北半球夏、秋季降水是土壤湿度的主要来源,除非洲干旱区以外的中低纬度地区及南半球,土壤湿度随降水的增加而增加,随气温的升高而减小;浅层土壤湿度受同期降水和气温的影响最为显著;前期降水和气温对土壤湿度的影响存在着较大的空间差异,北半球中高纬度地区,当年的夏、秋季降水是次年春季土壤湿度的主要来源,中层土壤（10~100cm）是降水的主要存储层。浅层土壤受外界影响较大,对前期气候信息的存贮有限。中低纬度地区及南半球,中深层土壤更多地是存储前一个季节的气温和降水信息,对跨季节气候信息的存储并不明显;低纬度地区春季土壤湿度的增加可能有利于后期降水的增多,高纬度地区春季土壤湿度的增加可能使后期降水减少,在季节尺度上中层土壤湿度对后期的降水影响较明显,在月至日尺度上浅层土壤湿度对后期降水的影响更重要;春季干旱区尤其是中层土壤湿度的增加可能有利于夏季气温的降低。 相似文献
20.
Crucial to most landslide early warning system (EWS) is the precise prediction of rainfall in space and time. Researchers are aware of the importance of the spatial variability of rainfall in landslide studies. Commonly, however, it is neglected by implementing simplified approaches (e.g. representative rain gauges for an entire area). With spatially differentiated rainfall information, real-time comparison with rainfall thresholds or the implementation in process-based approaches might form the basis for improved landslide warnings. This study suggests an automated workflow from the hourly, web-based collection of rain gauge data to the generation of spatially differentiated rainfall predictions based on deterministic and geostatistical methods. With kriging usually being a labour-intensive, manual task, a simplified variogram modelling routine was applied for the automated processing of up-to-date point information data. Validation showed quite satisfactory results, yet it also revealed the drawbacks that are associated with univariate geostatistical interpolation techniques which solely rely on rain gauges (e.g. smoothing of data, difficulties in resolving small-scale, highly intermittent rainfall). In the perspective, the potential use of citizen scientific data is highlighted for the improvement of studies on landslide EWS. 相似文献