首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
卢迪  周惠成 《水文》2014,34(4):8-14
针对中长期径流预报因子的选择问题,采用互信息量方法筛选预报模型输入因子,在BP神经网络模型中,分别用均方误差和互信息量作为目标函数,衡量因子复合相关关系,优化选择最终预报因子并应用于碧流河汛期径流预报中。结果表明,基于互信息量筛选的预报因子与BP神经网络模型相结合,可有效识别多个预报因子与预报量间的复合相关性,对中长期径流预报因子的选择有很好参考价值。  相似文献   

2.
The equilibrium fractionation factors between mirabilite (Na2SO4·10H2O) and saturated sodium sulphate solution at 25°C and 0°C and between ice and 2·5 molal sodium chloride solution at ?10°C have been measured. For mirabilite, the deuterium factors are 1·017 and 1·019, and the oxygen-18 factors are 1·0014 and 1·0020 at 25°C and 0°C, respectively. For ice, the factors are 1·024 for deuterium and 1·0022 for oxygen-18 at ?10°C. These fractionation factors are used to estimate the fractionation factors between ice and mirabilite and concentrated sea water at ?10°C. It is concluded that the average binding strengths of hydrogen in ice and mirabilite are very similar.  相似文献   

3.
聂海宽  张金川 《地质学报》2012,86(2):349-361
为了研究页岩气聚集条件及含气量的影响因素、计算方法,根据页岩气聚集机理、聚集特征将页岩气聚集的因素分为内部因素和外部因素。内部因素主要包括页岩有机地球化学参数、矿物组成以及物性参数等,外部因素主要包括深度、温度、压力等。通过对四川盆地及其周缘下寒武统和上奥陶统—下志留统41块黑色页岩的有机地球化学参数、矿物组成、物性参数、深度、温度、压力等因素对页岩含气量影响作用的分析,可知反映内部因素的有机碳含量、总烃含量、石英含量、粘土矿物含量、孔隙度(裂缝)、密度、黄铁矿含量和碳酸盐含量等8个参数对页岩气聚集具有重要影响。通过对"二参数"、"六参数"、"八参数"与含气量的多元线性回归得出计算页岩含气量的计算公式,据此公式计算的含气量与实测值吻合良好,且参数越多对页岩含气量的预测越准确。本文建议在条件允许的情况下,尽可能多地利用各种参数对页岩含气量进行预测,以达到更好的预测效果。在勘探早期,建议采用简单易得到的两个最主要参数——有机碳含量和孔隙度进行页岩含气量的计算。  相似文献   

4.
页岩气含气量和页岩气地质评价综述   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
页岩气为源岩区油气聚集,属于源岩滞留气,以游离和吸附状态为主存在。富有机质页岩含气量是页岩气资源评价和有利区优选的关键参数。页岩有机质含量和地层的压力、温度、湿度等因素影响页岩的含气量。含气量的确定方法主要有解吸和测井方法。开展页岩气地质评价,除含气量参数外,还要研究地层和构造特征、岩石和矿物成分、储层厚度和埋深、储集空间类型、储集物性、岩石力学参数、有机地球化学参数、区域现今应力场特征、流体压力、储层温度、流体饱和度、流体性质等其它参数。发展有效的系统集成方法,综合分析、评价页岩气资源潜力和预测有利区,目前也在不断探索之中。  相似文献   

5.
基于等级相关的泥石流危险因子筛选与危险度评价   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
针对泥石流危险因子之间的单调性差异和主次危险因子之间的非线性关系,提出了结合散点图和Spearman等级相关评价泥石流主次危险因子相关性的方法,以散点图作为危险因子初步筛选的依据,以Spearman等级相关系数作为危险因子最终筛选和权重分配的依据。以云南省37条泥石流沟的基础数据为例,建立了泥石流危险度综合评价模型,以此计算东川市12条泥石流沟的危险度评价结果,计算结果表明,新方法比经典方法更能体现物源条件与动力条件对泥石流危险性的贡献,从而证明了新方法的合理性。  相似文献   

6.
Global data are presented for sources of atmospheric input for 20 trace metals, and the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic sources is assessed. Interference factors are calculated as (total anthropogenic emissions/total natural emissions) × 100. For lithophile metals such as Fe and Mn, interference factors are small. In contrast, the atmophile metals, such as As, Se and Hg, exhibit large interference factors. A significant degree of correlation exists between interference factors and enrichment factors, where enrichment factor is defined as the metal/Al ratio in atmospheric particulates divided by the metal/Al ratio in soils. For many of the trace metals, enrichment factors are of the same order of magnitude at high latitudes in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and are larger at high latitude than at mid latitude.A simple mathematical model is used to calculate present-day enrichment factors in both hemispheres based on natural and anthropogenic influxes, effluxes, and transfer between hemispheres. The calculated enrichment factors are in good agreement with the observed enrichment factors for lithophile metals at both mid and high latitude, and for atmophile metals at mid latitude. However, calculated enrichment factors for atmophile metals are lower than observed enrichment factors at high latitude. To explain these results, we propose that for Hg, As and Se, and perhaps for other atmophile metals, there are significant fluxes from the sea surface to the atmosphere. If the estimated low-temperature fluxes of As, Se and Hg from the land and sea surfaces are included in the interference factor calculations for these metals, the factors are reduced to less than 100%.  相似文献   

7.
太平洋海山成矿系统与成矿作用过程   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
文中初步探讨了太平洋海山富钴结壳成矿系统的结构与成矿作用过程。海山成矿系统的控矿要素主要包括地质要素和海洋要素,地质要素主要包括海山的形成、迁移、沉降和水道的开合等,海洋要素主要包括大洋温盐环流、最低含氧带(OMZ)、文石溶跃面、碳酸盐补偿深度和海山周围海水的动力情况等。重点分析了海山漂移和沉降、水道开合、最低含氧带变化、大洋环流以及气候变化等要素对富钴结壳成矿的控制作用。海山为富钴结壳成矿提供了一个容矿空间,稳定的基岩,即长期稳定的容矿空间,是富钴结壳成矿的基本条件;海山的形成年龄、海山的迁移和水道的开合决定并改变了富钴结壳的成矿背景条件,促使海山成矿系统发生演化。最低含氧带作为富钴结壳成矿的地球化学障,是直接的矿源层;而海山周边的地形旋涡沟通了最低含氧带与富氧、富铁的深层和底层水,使得最低含氧带中的成矿金属离子得到氧化,进而发生胶体凝聚沉淀,形成富钴结壳。以西太平洋海山成矿系统为例,将该区白垩纪以来富钴结壳成矿作用过程划分为5个阶段:(1)白垩纪—始新世,(2)始新世末—晚渐新世,(3)晚渐新世—中中新世早期,(4)中中新世早期—晚中新世早期,(5)晚中新世早期—现代,其中(2)、(3)阶段有利于发育富钴结壳。  相似文献   

8.
坚硬“打滑”地层钻进一直是钻进工作的一项难题,深入分析了钻进碎岩机理,确定影响钻进速度的因素,进而提出钻头设计应考虑的因素,并通过野外试验验证了所提观点。  相似文献   

9.
滑坡危险度区划方法及其应用   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
乔建平  石莉莉 《地质通报》2009,28(8):1031-1038
在滑坡研究的基础上总结了滑坡危险度区划的研究方法。建立了综合因素分析和本底因素评价的指标体系,提出了综合因素叠加法、本底因素贡献权重叠加法和本底因素模糊判别推理法的区划模型,介绍了这些方法的应用及试验结果。还对滑坡危险度区划研究中存在的3个主要问题进行了讨论:评价指标数量选择、最佳权重确定方法和危险性等级划分的标准。  相似文献   

10.
Probabilistic landslide susceptibility and factor effect analysis   总被引:18,自引:0,他引:18  
The susceptibility of landslides and the effect of landslide-related factors at Penang in Malaysia using the geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data have been evaluated. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and from field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. The factors chosen that influence landslide occurrence were: topographic slope, topographic aspect, topographic curvature and distance from drainage, all from the topographic database; lithology and distance from lineament, taken from the geologic database; land use from Landsat Thermatic Mapper (TM) satellite images; and the vegetation index value from SPOT HRV (High-Resolution Visible) satellite images. Landslide hazardous areas were analyzed and mapped using the landslide-occurrence factors employing the probability–frequency ratio method using the all factors. To assess the effect of these factors, each factor was excluded from the analysis, and its effect verified using the landslide location data. As a result, all factors had relatively positive effects, except lithology, on the landslide susceptibility maps in the study area.  相似文献   

11.
在通过对长江三峡某地区库岸稳定性的影响因素分析,概括、总结了塌岸影响因素的类型和作用特点,并运用数值模拟对因素的影响程度进行了模拟分析,得出各因素的影响规律,并通过正交设计分析得到各因素的敏感性,为三峡库区类似地质条件的地质灾害治理提供了可靠依据。  相似文献   

12.
兴文地质公园小岩湾天坑地貌地质成因分析及其发展预测   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
兴文地质公园小岩湾天坑是喀斯特作用形成的塌陷天坑地貌。天坑可视为一个完整的耗散结构系统,从物质与能量输入输出的角度,运用层次分析法定量分析天坑地质成因的各项因素,能计算出各因素对天坑成因的相对重要性。经分析,小岩湾天坑形成的主要因素有岩层岩性、构造运动、气候、生物和水文地质条件。其中厚层石灰岩和构造裂隙是天坑喀斯特地貌形成的物质基础;温度、气压、降水和生物作用对天坑系统进行物质输入,水的运动和新构造运动对天坑系统进行物质与能量输出,根据层次分析法得出目前天坑系统以输出为主、天坑后期地貌为溶蚀盆地。  相似文献   

13.
松嫩平原第四纪以来生态环境演化的影响因素   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
松嫩平原第四纪以来的生态环境发生了多次变迁,在地质历史时期受控于自然因素新构造运动和冰期气候旋回共同制约着第四纪生态环境演变的历史,新构造运动使平原隆起、拗陷、水系变迁和地貌重塑;东亚季风等气候因素在生态环境演化的过程中起着重要作用?并且新构造运动与气候演变具有准同步性。随着人类社会的发展,社会因素的影响逐步加强,已构成现代生态环境恶化的决定怀因素。  相似文献   

14.
Ecological-geological conditions are considered to be an environment created by a set of contemporary morphologically expressed geological factors that influence specific features of the functioning of the biota, including human beings, within the framework of the ecological-geological system. The paper discusses factors (components) of ecological-geological conditions, factors of the formation of ecological-geological conditions, and the role of anthropogenic (technogenic) impacts in the transformation of ecological-geological conditions.  相似文献   

15.
利用物性数据分析、铸体薄片鉴定、扫描电镜观察、图像分析技术等手段,探讨了临南洼陷沙三段砂岩储层孔隙度控制因素,并运用灰色关联等研究方法量化各因素的影响程度,最终建立储层孔隙度综合预测模型。结果表明,控制临南洼陷沙三段砂岩储层孔隙度的因素包括与沉积相关的粒度因素和分选因素,以及与成岩相关的压实因素、胶结因素和溶蚀因素。在限定压实条件下,孔隙随埋深的变化和岩石粒度、分选系数具相关性;粒度较粗的储集层物性相对较好,且分选性对原始物性的影响要大于粒级的影响;碳酸盐岩胶结物质体积分数大于5%时,孔隙度与碳酸盐岩体积分数呈负相关;以长石颗粒溶蚀为主的溶蚀作用具有明显的增孔效应;随着黏土矿物含量增高,孔隙度逐渐降低。运用灰色关联法量化各项地质参数对储层孔隙度的影响,进而在设定现今储层孔隙度为正常埋藏压实保存孔隙度与其他成岩作用对孔隙度贡献的叠加的前提下,建立了孔隙度综合预测的数学模型。经17组数据的验证,该预测方法的准确率可达90.5%。  相似文献   

16.
Spatial and temporal changes in flooding and the affecting factors in China   总被引:5,自引:3,他引:2  
Spatial and temporal changes in flood events in China are becoming increasingly important due to the rapid climate warming that is occurring. This study was conducted to consider changes in flood events and the factors affecting such changes. To accomplish this, China was divided into natural and social-economic flood regions: north China, northwest China, northeast China, southwest China, central China, east China, south China, and Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau. Spatial and temporal changes in flood patterns were rebuilt during 1980?C2009, and Fast Fourier Transform Filtering was then employed to stimulate the changes in floods during this period. The factors affecting flooding were then analyzed quantitatively. The results showed that, based on the time series for China as a whole, flooding was more serious during 1990?C1999 than 1980?C1989 and 2000?C2009. However, in different regions, the trends in flooding differed greatly. Based on spatial changes, the areas hardest hit by floods were northeast China in the 1980s, northeast China, central China and east China in the 1990s, and central China after 2000. In China, the main flood-affecting factors were meteorological, ecological, population, water conservation facilities, and policy factors. However, the main affecting factors differed by region. Overall, the complex spatial and temporal features of flood variations and various affecting factors demand proper national and regional governmental action in the face of the changing flood patterns in China. The results of the present study provide valuable information to flood policymakers and flood disaster researchers.  相似文献   

17.
 R-mode factor analysis of the recently acquired data on water and sediment chemistry has been performed. Basic chemical parameters have been merged together which aid in interpreting a few empirical geochemical factors controlling the chemical nature of water and sediments of the Gomti River, a major Himalayan tributary of the Ganges drainage basin. Water chemistry seems to be controlled by three factors: bicarbonate, rainfall and silicate and phosphate factors. Sediment chemistry is largely controlled by the following four factors: clay, adsorption/desorption, Fe-Mn hydroxide and mercury factors. These factors show spatial and temporal variability in terms of their R-scores. Received: 8 September 1997 · Accepted: 15 December 1997  相似文献   

18.
随机森林与GIS的泥石流易发性及可靠性   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
张书豪  吴光 《地球科学》2019,44(9):3115-3134
目前基于GIS的泥石流易发性(简称DFS)评价模型中,统计类型模型的因子须保证独立性,且权重受区间划分控制;线性机器学习难以处理非线性问题、而常用非线性模型调试效率低.鉴于随机森林(RF)能有效克服常用模型的诸多不足,且在DFS评价中的应用极少,首先展开基于RF的DFS评价,采用线性、RBF支持向量机、二次判别分析、RF等经贝叶斯优化的模型和26种泥石流影响因子;然后,分别以RF的相对权重排序和蒙特卡洛方法研究因子组合和建模样本变化下DFS评价的可靠性.结果表明:RF不易发和较易发区中有21个因子可指示泥石流孕育环境差异;RF的相对权重排序能有效确定易发模型的局部最优因子组合;随机样本划分导致的评价不确定性在中易发区最大,应通过提高建模样本比例和改善模型降低;RF的预测能力指标AUC为0.86、全局预测精度为0.79、F1分数为0.66、brier分数为0.14,以及它们的可靠度最优,可作为DFS定量评估的优先选择.   相似文献   

19.
Based on the historical records of natural disasters and human wars of the final 35 years in the late Ming Dynasty (1610–1644 AD) obtained using different spatial scales, a set of grading systems were established to classify, grade and present these records and their spatiotemporal characteristics. From natural and human perspectives to quantitative analyses of the direct causes of the collapse of the Ming Dynasty, the author draws conclusion regarding a total of six immediate factors, which were, according to the rate of contribution from high to low, internal rebellions, drought, inter-ethnic conflicts, locust, flood and external wars. Among these causes, human factors accounted for approximately 47%, while natural factors accounted for approximately 53%. Attribution analysis indicated that the basin areas in east China were sensitive to climate change during the Ming Dynasty. Severe drought and locusts in a cooling environment were the main natural causes, while frequent internal rebellions and inter-ethnic conflicts influenced by financial crisis were the major human factors. Although natural factors accounted for a greater percentage than human factors in the rate of contribution to the collapse of the Ming Dynasty, they were the only external factors impacting social development and changes.  相似文献   

20.
冻土力学性质影响因素的显著性和交互作用研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
李顺群  高凌霞  柴寿喜 《岩土力学》2012,33(4):1173-1177
冻土的力学性质不仅依赖于含水率、温度、应变率、含盐量、围压等因素,也可能依赖于这些因素之间的交互作用。为进一步明确冻土强度、模量等力学指标与以上各因素的依存关系,根据既有试验资料和统计学原理,对冻土力学性质影响因素的显著性和因素间的交互作用进行了研究。结果表明,温度对冻土力学性质的影响最为显著,是影响冻土力学性质的主要因素,含水率、含盐量、应变速率等对冻土力学性质也有显著影响;同时,温度、含水率和应变速率对强度的影响存在明显的交互作用。因此,在研究冻土强度等力学行为时,片面针对某一因素开展研究是不合适的,而应综合考虑各主要因素及因素之间的交互作用影响。  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号