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1.
Emergency shelter capacity estimation by earthquake damage analysis   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  
Taiwan is located on the Pacific Ring of Fire and thus experiences many detectable earthquakes annually. The damage resulting from these earthquakes affects the government and local citizens financially and endangers lives. As the political and economic capital of Taiwan, Taipei has a high population density. Assessing the seismic effects in Taipei, therefore, is a crucial issue requiring immediate attention. In this study, Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES) software for analyzing potential earthquakes was used to simulate earthquake events at potential faults in the Taipei area. The TELES analysis theory was used to analyze seismic events and to predict building damage and displacement of citizens in each Taipei administrative district. The analytical results are then compared with the capacity of temporary shelters currently planned by the government. Finally, our conclusions and recommendations are presented. Hopefully, the results of this study can provide a useful reference for relevant organizations when developing earthquake disaster prevention policies.  相似文献   

2.
This paper describes a multi-tiered loss assessment methodology to estimate seismic monetary implications resulting from structural damage to the building population in Greater Cairo. After outlining a ground-shaking model, data on geological structures and surface soil conditions are collated using a considerable number of boreholes to produce a classification of different soil deposits. An inventory database for the existing building stock is also prepared. The seismic vulnerability of representative reinforced concrete building models, designed according to prevalent codes and construction practices, is evaluated. Capacity spectrum methods are utilised for assessing the structural performance through a multi-level damage scale. A simplified methodology for deriving fragility curves for non-ductile reinforced concrete building classes that typically constitute the building population of the city is adopted. In addition, suitable fragility functions for unreinforced masonry constructions are selected and used for completing the loss model for the study area. The results are finally used to build an event-based loss model caused by possible earthquakes in the region.  相似文献   

3.
Overview of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  
The National Science Council (NSC) of Taiwan started the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998 to promote researches on seismic hazard analysis, structural damage assessment, and socio-economic loss estimation. The associated application software, “Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)”, integrates various inventory data and analysis modules to fulfill three objectives. First, it helps to obtain reliable estimates of seismic hazards and losses soon after occurrence of large earthquakes. Second, it helps to simulate earthquake scenarios and to provide useful estimates for local governments or public services to propose their seismic disaster mitigation plans. Third, it helps to provide catastrophic risk management tools, such as proposing the seismic insurance policy for residential buildings. This paper focuses on the development and application of analysis modules used in early loss estimation system. These modules include assessments of ground motion intensity, soil liquefaction potential, building damage and casualty.  相似文献   

4.
In this paper, a grid-based cluster division procedure, in combination with a novel maximum likelihood estimate based on multinomial distribution, is proposed to derive fragility curves for medium- and low-rise reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in Taiwan. This new grid-based method generates higher-quality vulnerability data for reducing the dispersion of datasets than does the district-based method. The medium- and low-rise RC buildings are classified into six typologies according to both the number of floors and the design code, based on the complete building damage records collected after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan. The results of the grid-based method show that the fragility curves are more stable and convergent than those from the district-based method. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method can reasonably be implemented for fragility analysis and can be used for assessing seismic risk in the future.  相似文献   

5.
A large amount of buildings was damaged or destroyed by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami. Numerous field surveys were conducted in order to collect the tsunami inundation extents and building damage data in the affected areas. Therefore, this event provides us with one of the most complete data set among tsunami events in history. In this study, fragility functions are derived using data provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation of Japan, with more than 250,000 structures surveyed. The set of data has details on damage level, structural material, number of stories per building and location (town). This information is crucial to the understanding of the causes of building damage, as differences in structural characteristics and building location can be taken into account in the damage probability analysis. Using least squares regression, different sets of fragility curves are derived to demonstrate the influence of structural material, number of stories and coastal topography on building damage levels. The results show a better resistant performance of reinforced concrete and steel buildings over wood or masonry buildings. Also, buildings taller than two stories were confirmed to be much stronger than the buildings of one or two stories. The damage characteristic due to the coastal topography based on limited number of data in town locations is also shortly discussed here. At the same tsunami inundation depth, buildings along the Sanriku ria coast were much greater damaged than buildings from the plain coast in Sendai. The difference in damage states can be explained by the faster flow velocities in the ria coast at the same inundation depth. These findings are key to support better future building damage assessments, land use management and disaster planning.  相似文献   

6.
Tsunamis are destructive natural phenomena which cause extensive damage to the built environment, affecting the livelihoods and economy of the impacted nations. This has been demonstrated by the tragic events of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, or the Great East Japan tsunami in 2011. Following such events, a few studies have attempted to assess the fragility of the existing building inventory by constructing empirical stochastic functions, which relate the damage to a measure of tsunami intensity. However, these studies typically fit a linear statistical model to the available damage data, which are aggregated in bins of similar levels of tsunami intensity. This procedure, however, cannot deal well with aggregated data, low and high damage probabilities, nor does it result in the most realistic representation of the tsunami-induced damage. Deviating from this trend, the present study adopts the more realistic generalised linear models which address the aforementioned disadvantages. The proposed models are fitted to the damage database, containing 178,448 buildings surveyed in the aftermath of the 2011 Japanese tsunami, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism in Japan. In line with the results obtained in previous studies, the fragility curves show that wooden buildings (the dominant construction type in Japan) are the least resistant against tsunami loading. The diagnostics show that taking into account both the building’s construction type and the tsunami flow depth is crucial to the quality of the damage estimation and that these two variables do not act independently. In addition, the diagnostics reveal that tsunami flow depth estimates low levels of damage reasonably well; however, it is not the most representative measure of intensity of the tsunami for high damage states (especially structural damage). Further research using disaggregated damage data and additional explanatory variables is required in order to obtain reliable model estimations of building damage probability.  相似文献   

7.
A tornado with severe intensity hit the municipalities of Pianiga, Dolo and Mira close to Venice, northeast Italy, causing damages on a wide number of residential and industrial buildings and destroying some historical villas. In this study, the authors show the results of the damage assessment survey performed in the first days after the occurrence of the extreme event. Limited literature deals with damage assessment of European building types due to wind actions, and the available one does not consider building vulnerability as key factor in the structural response of existing structures subject to tornado hazard. In this paper, structural damages surveyed in reinforced concrete frame structures and masonry buildings, representative of common Italian building types, are critically discussed. Additionally, this work provides a database of past tornado events in northeast Italy, evidencing how the analyzed area has been found to be quite prone to tornado hazard.  相似文献   

8.
The Nishinomiya Built Environment Database, which can be used to analyze the disaster process of the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster in Nishinomiya City, has been expanded with new data entries. The database contains the following very detailed datasets: (1) the urbanization area base map, (2) casualty data, (3) three sets of building damage data surveyed by the Nishinomiya City, the Architectural Institute of Japan and the City Planning Institute of Japan, and the Kobe University, (4) building property data based on the real estate tax roll, (5) photographs of the damaged buildings with the information on the place and orientation of the picture, and (6) the estimated distribution of the seismic ground motion. The seismic ground motion was simulated for the southern part of Nishinomiya City and two verification sites in Kobe City and Amagasaki City. In the simulation, the borehole data of public facilities were used to model the surface soils as one-dimensional layers, taking into consideration the fact that the spatial distribution of the sediment/basement interface forms a slope. The model of the fault rupture process simulated the characteristics of the seismic motion at basement level, and amplification effects of the surface layers were evaluated based on multiple reflection theory. The distribution of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity was estimated from acceleration response spectra at each borehole point. In addition, the relationship between simulated seismic ground motion and building damage was studied based on newly proposed band-passed spectrum intensity using the expanded database. This confirmed that detailed categorization is necessary in order to evaluate the fragility functions, especially for reinforced concrete structures. The database should provide fundamental information for identifying the relationship between the ground motions and the extent and pattern of building damage, or the pattern of the occurrence of casualties.Presently  相似文献   

9.
Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.  相似文献   

10.
In Taiwan, the hillside is about 70 % of total area. These areas also have steep topography and geological vulnerability. When an event of torrential rain comes during a typhoon, the landslide disasters usually occur at these areas due to the long duration and high intensity of rainfall. Therefore, a design which considers the potential landslide has become an important issue in Taiwan. In this study, a temporal characteristic of landslide fragility curve (LFC) was developed, based on the geomorphological and vegetation factors using landslides at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed in Taiwan, during Typhoon Sinlaku (September 2008) and Typhoon Morakot (August 2009). This study addressed an effective landslide hazard assessment process, linking together the post-landslide damage and post-rainfall data for LFC model. The Kriging method was used to interpolate the rainfall indices (R 0, R, I) for numerical analysis. Remote sensing data from SPOT images were applied to analyze the landslide ratio and vegetation conditions. The 40-m digital elevation model was used for slope variation analysis in the watershed, and the maximum likelihood estimate was conducted to determine the mean and standard deviation parameters of the proposed empirical LFC model. This empirical model can express the probability of exceeding a damage state for a certain classification (or conditions) of landslides by considering a specific hazard index for a given event. Finally, the vulnerability functions can be used to assess the loss from landslides, and, in the future, to manage the risk of debris flow in the watershed.  相似文献   

11.
In this paper, we consider the time at which earthquake events occur when analyzing seismic structural damage to a deteriorating RC bridge within a specified period. Because the uncertainty exists in the occurrence time of earthquake events, Monte Carlo simulation is applied. The proposed procedure for evaluating the exceedance probability, which corresponds to a specified limit state, is then applied to a case study of RC bridges in Taiwan to demonstrate its applicability. This study selects three typical RC bridges located in the Taipei Basin, Taiwan, to analyze exceedance probabilities of specified damage states during various specified periods and then discusses the cumulative damage effect on the exceedance probabilities of specified damage states. Additionally, for the chloride-induced deteriorating bridges at various distances to the sea in Suao, Taiwan, the effects of the deterioration and seismic structural damage on the exceedance probabilities of specified damage states are demonstrated and discussed. The proposed assessment procedure can help engineers understand whether the deterioration would accelerate the declining seismic performance of bridges and shorten their serviceability-related and safety-related service lives, as well as provide reference for repairing RC bridges and retrofitting their seismic performance.  相似文献   

12.
The knowledge of past events is important for the assessment of debris-flow hazard. Amongst the sources of information, documents from historical archives are particularly important in sites where the debris flows cause damage to urban areas and transportation routes. The paper analyses the availability of historical documents on debris flows in Northeastern Italy and discusses factors that can influence the building of time series from archive data both at regional and single basin scales. An increased number of debris flows was observed in the studied region for the last decades. This could be due both to an increased frequency of the events and to a larger availability of information: the analysis carried out indicates that the latter factor is probably the most influencing. The importance of factors, which affect the collection of data, including the conservation of documents and the presence and fragility of the elements at risk, is stressed in view of a wise use of historical data on debris flows.  相似文献   

13.
The objective of this paper is to develop an efficient analytical method for assessing the vulnerability of low-rise reinforced concrete buildings subjected to seismically induced slow-moving earth slides. Vulnerability is defined in terms of probabilistic fragility curves, which describe the probability of exceeding a certain limit state of the building, on a given slope, versus the Peak Horizontal Ground Acceleration (PHGA) at the assumed “seismic bedrock”, allowing for the quantification of various sources of uncertainty. The proposed method is based on a two-step, uncoupled approach. In the first step, the differential permanent landslide displacements at the building’s foundation level are estimated using a dynamic non-linear finite difference slope model. In the second step, the calculated differential permanent displacements are statically imposed at the foundation level to assess the building’s response to differing permanent seismic ground displacements using a finite element code. Structural limit states are defined in terms of threshold values of strains for the reinforced concrete structural components. The method is applied to typical low-rise reinforced concrete frame buildings on shallow foundations with varying strength and stiffness characteristics (isolated footings and continuous slab foundation), standing near the crest of a relatively slow-moving earth slide. Two different slope models are selected representing a cohesive and a purely frictional soil material. The paper describes the method and the derived fragility curves for the selected building and slope typologies that could be used in quantitative risk assessment studies at site-specific and local scales.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
The paper focuses on automatic extraction of building stock information for quantifying physical exposure and its vulnerability from High and Very High Resolution (VHR) optical satellite imagery. We use two case studies. In Sana’a (Yemen), we use automatic techniques to extract the building stock as well as building height that is used to characterize its vulnerability. In Port-au-Prince (Haiti)—the area affected by the 2010 earthquake—we map the building stock based on a pre-disaster imagery, and we show the added value of area-based information when added to point-based damage assessment from visual change interpretation of post-disaster aerial images. This paper shows that VHR imagery can be used to locate and quantify the building stock and its height. This paper also shows that damages measured from changes detected from pre- and post-disaster imagery can in principle map and provide vulnerability information related to the structural fragility of the building stock.  相似文献   

16.
Through this paper we propose and test a GIS framework that addresses the issue of seismic risk due to urban road network failure. The approach relies on full GIS integration, on Monte Carlo simulations for generating potentially disrupted network configurations, considering also the damage probability due to direct earthquake implications, and on traffic considerations (both in typical and post-earthquake situations). The damage probability can be obtained using fragility functions for critical structures like bridges and tunnels or by determining empirically the possibility of affected buildings to generate debris leading to road obstruction. Multiple performance indicators such as travel time and distance under various conditions are combined, in order to quantify the risks inflicted by dysfunctionalities in the emergency intervention process. The framework considers at the same time temporal and spatial dimensions, being able to cope with traffic dynamics or reconfigurable network configurations. The ArcGIS Network Analyst Module is used for model integration, and full city scale analysis is performed in order to test the capabilities. Bucharest (capital of Romania) is selected for the case study; this 2 million inhabitant city is one of the most endangered in Europe, due to earthquakes that occur in the Vrancea Area, at intermediate depth, with moment magnitudes > 7, but also due to the vulnerable building stock. Beside this, it is one of Europe’s top cities when it comes to traffic congestion. The results of the study provide initial insights on the deficiencies of the city’s road network and connectivity limitations, showing the high impact of road obstructions and traffic congestion on intervention times, for ambulances and firefighters, in case of an earthquake.  相似文献   

17.
Operational flood prediction and flood risk assessment have become important components of flood management. One main aspect is the reliability assessment of the flood defence line during a flood event. This is generally performed by a comparison of the water level in the river to the crest height of the dikes whilst taking only hydraulic and geometric aspects into account. Additional information about material zones and material parameters are often available. However, these data are not in an appropriate shape when deriving the reliability of the flood defence line. This paper outlines how the fragility curve of a dike section is used to appropriately integrate geostatic and geohydraulic dike characteristics into operational flood management systems. Fragility curves are the result of a model-based reliability analysis and they summarise the dike performance depending on the water level. Failure modes such as piping or slope failure are included. In a case study, fragility curves for dike sections along the River Emscher (Germany) are determined. Their practical implementation in an operational flood management system shows an improvement in the operational reliability assessment due to the additional information taken into account. The use of fragility curves also supports the decision-making processes when emergency flood protection measures are required.  相似文献   

18.
泥石流作用下建筑物易损性评价方法分析与评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
曾超  贺拿  宋国虎 《地球科学进展》2012,27(11):1211-1220
建筑物易损度评价作为泥石流易损度评价的重要组成部分,其研究是实现城镇及居民点泥石流风险定量化和风险管理的必要环节。综述近30年来,泥石流作用下建筑物易损度研究的发展过程,并指出以统计分析方法建立的建筑物易损度曲线普适性差且力学机理不明等问题,提出数值计算和模型实验的手段获取建筑物结构易损度的机理模型。由于建筑物易损度研究问题本身的复杂性,统计分析方法仍将作为建筑物易损度研究的重要手段,力学机理明晰的研究方法则将成为今后研究的难点和热点。此外,地震、滚石、雪崩等类似灾种的易损度研究方法和成果可被借鉴到泥石流领域。针对灾害中因结构破坏引发人员伤亡的情况,建议采用时间概率和基于条件概率的事件树方法计算建筑物内人员易损度。最终形成综合结构和人员易损度研究成果的建筑物易损度评价方法。  相似文献   

19.
This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli, a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226 parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database.  相似文献   

20.
Flood risk assessment using regional regression analysis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This study aimed to create a flood risk map for ungauged regions, which have limited flood damage data and other relevant data. The fact that there is a shortage of data that are critical for the establishment of a flood assessment and mitigation plan is not surprising even in developed countries like South Korea. To address this problem, the regional regression concept in statistical hydrology was introduced to the flood risk assessment field in this study, and it was framed with a series of two regression functions: flood damage and regional coefficients. As the second regression function utilizes the local socioeconomic variables, the resulting flood risk map can reflect the spatial characteristics well. The proposed methodology was applied to create flood risk maps for the three metropolitan areas in South Korea. The comparison of the proposed methodology with the existing methods revealed that only the proposed methodology can produce a statistically meaningful flood risk map based on a recent major flood in 2001.  相似文献   

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