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1.
Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model is developed utilizing surface weather observations of reference stations
in each mountain range in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya). The model searches past similar cases from historical dataset
of reference observatory in each mountain range based on current situation. The searched past similar cases of each mountain
range are used to draw weather forecast for that mountain range in operational weather forecasting mode, three days in advance.
The developed analog weather forecast model is tested with the independent dataset of more than 717 days (542 days for Pir
Panjal range in HP) of the past 4 winters (2003–2004 to 2006–2007). Independent test results are reasonably good and suggest
that there is some possibility of forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode employing analog method over
different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya. Significant difference in overall accuracy of the model is found for prediction
of snow day and no-snow day over different mountain ranges, when weather is predicted under snow day and no-snow day weather
forecast categories respectively. In the same mountain range, significant difference is also found in overall accuracy of
the model for prediction of snow day and no-snow day for different areas. This can be attributed to their geographical position
and topographical differences. The analog weather forecast model performs better than persistence and climatological forecast
for day-1 predictions for all the mountain ranges except Karakoram range in NW-Himalaya. The developed analog weather forecast
model may help as a guidance tool for forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode in different mountain ranges
in NW-Himalaya. 相似文献
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Structure and components for the emergency response and warning system on Turtle Mountain,Alberta, Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Since 2003, a series of over eighty sensors has been installed at Turtle Mountain, site of the 1903 Frank Slide. The purpose of these instruments is to both characterize and provide warning for a second large rock avalanche from the eastern face of the mountain, where various unstable masses have been identified. Although studies continue on the mountain to better understand the deformation patterns and interpretations of the slope kinematics, significant effort has been expended to develop a structure for the warning and emergency response that clearly outlines not only responsibilities and communications protocols during an emergency, but also day-to-day operational responses and procedures to ensure that the system remains operational. From a day-to-day operational perspective, a systematic and repeatable set of procedures is required in order to ensure that not only are data trends reviewed and reported on, but scheduled checks of system functionality are undertaken. An internal Roles and Responsibilities Manual has been developed to clearly outline responsibilities for geoengineering, information technology (IT), and management staff to ensure that system checks are completed and that support is in place on a 24/7 basis should components of the system cease to operate properly or should unacceptable deformations require review. In addition to that, a clear and concise troubleshooting manual has been developed. This document provides simple diagnoses of problems within the system and a clear roadmap of how to fix each component. From a warning and emergency response perspective, a series of color-coded alert conditions has been developed should unacceptable deformations be observed. At each alert level, clear responsibilities for actions and communications have been identified for geoengineering staff, provincial emergency management authorities, municipal officials, and first responders. This has been documented in the emergency response protocol. All documents described here are “living” documents that are updated on a regular basis as changes to the system are made. An annual mock warning exercise has been developed and run in order to test responses to a hypothetical emergency and generate updates to the system documentation. 相似文献
4.
New forms of hazards generated by extreme weather pose new challenges to emergency management. The purpose of this paper is to identify a typical evolution dynamics by analyzing coupling and embeddedness in risk evolution via critical infrastructure system under extreme weather. Evidence from the snow event in early 2008, China, is used to draw the viewpoint and support the argument. The paper identifies the dynamics that how a natural hazard of extreme weather evolves into a social crisis and how coupling and embeddedness contribute to the evolution. This paper makes it evident that the impact of natural hazard to a society can obtain amplification through coupling and embeddedness. Therefore, new challenges in risk evolution should become a highlighted direction for further research. This paper sheds light on a new profile for social impact research of natural hazard and provides new insights into systems thinking on emergency management. 相似文献
5.
Leiming Ma 《地球科学进展》1986,35(6):551-560
Numerical weather prediction, which is the major basis of current weather forecast, has some shortcomings, such as the understanding of the law of atmospheric motion, the assimilation and application of observation data, the expression of model physics, etc., leading to the forecast error of weather. The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology in recent years provides a new possibility for the advancement and innovation of weather forecast. In this paper, the background of the development of artificial intelligence, the current situation of the application of artificial intelligence technology to weather forecast and the future development trend are mainly described to account for this possibility. After that, the idea for development of weather forecast technology based on the integration of artificial intelligence and numerical forecast is put forward. Particularly, this study stresses that, in order to advance the AI algorithm of weather forecast in the future, it is requested to focus on the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of atmospheric motion leading to the uncertainty of forecast. Starting from the essence of mathematics and physics, we need to realize the hybrid modeling of mathematics and physics, not only to establish the framework of input-output mapping, but also to provide solutions to the bottleneck problems of weather forecast. 相似文献
6.
宁夏降水型地质灾害气象条件等级预警系统 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1982-2004年宁夏地质灾害与降水资料，在分析引发宁夏干旱区主要地质灾害的气象条件基础上，采用统计学方法分区建模，建立了宁夏降水型地质灾害潜势预报模型。依据该模型，在可视化高级编程语言DELPHl环境下，研究开发了一套自动化程度较高的降水型地质灾害气象条件等级预警系统；该系统可以通过网络，以协调一致的工作平台，将气象与地质等相关部门有机连接，实现了联合开展地质灾害预报及指导订正的业务流程。根据实时的雨情及降雨预报，依据所建的分区预报模型，对宁夏地质灾害的发生概率进行快速评价，实现对灾害发生的空间范围、强度及其分布概率的自动实时预警预报；通过人机交互订正，提供位图和GEOS（文本）2种格式的概率预报结论，同时实现了预报预警服务材料的自动化输出。2004，2005年的业务试运行表明，该预警系统基本能满足业务的需求，为新业务领域的拓展提供了技术支持。 相似文献
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8.
Micha Werner Paolo Reggiani Ad De Roo Paul Bates Eric Sprokkereef 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):25-42
Application of recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has the potential of allowing delivery of flood warning to extend well beyond the typical lead times of operational flood warning at the river basin scale. A prototype system, a European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS) developed to deliver such pre-warnings, aiming at providing a pre-warning at lead times of between 5 and 10 days is described. Considerable uncertainty in the weather forecast at these lead times, however, means that resulting forecasts must be treated probabilistically, and although probabilistic forecasts may be easy to disseminate, these are difficult to understand. This paper explores the structure of operational flood warning, and shows that integration in the flood warning process is required if the pre-warning is to fulfil its potential. A simple method of summarising the information in the pre-warning is presented, and the system in hindcast mode is shown to give clear indication of an upcoming major event in the Rhine basin up to 10 days before the actual event. Finally recommendations on the use of data assimilation to embed the EFFS system within an operational environment are given. 相似文献
9.
D. Bala Subrahamanyam Radhika Ramachandran S. Indira Rani S. Sijikumar T. J. Anurose Asish Kumar Ghosh 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(3):893-910
Accurate knowledge of different meteorological parameters over a launch site is very crucial for efficient management of satellite
launch operations. Local weather over the Indian satellite launch site located at Sriharikota High Altitude Range (SHAR: 13.72°N,
80.22°E) is very much dependent on the atmospheric circulation prevailing over the Bay of Bengal oceanic region and topography-induced
convective activities. With a view to providing severe weather threat prediction in terms of launch commit criteria (LCC),
two numerical atmospheric models namely high-resolution regional model (HRM) and advanced regional prediction system (ARPS)
are made operational over SHAR in a synoptic and mesoscale domain, respectively. In the present research article, two launch
campaigns through Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV-C11 and PSLV-C12) when contrasting weather conditions prevailed over
the launch site are chosen for demonstration of potential of two models in providing location-specific short-to-medium-range
weather predictions meeting the needs of LCC. In the case of PSLV-C11 campaign, when the launch site underwent frequent thundershower-associated
rainfall, ARPS model–derived meteorological fields were effectively used in prediction of probability of the wet spells. On
the other hand, Bay of Bengal underwent severe cyclonic storm during PSLV-C12 campaign, and its formation was reasonable captured
through HRM simulations. It is concluded that a combination of HRM and ARPS provide reliable short-to-medium-range weather
prediction over SHAR, which has got profound importance in launch-related activities. 相似文献
10.
城市突发性地质灾害应急系统探讨 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
唐川 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2005,16(3):104-110
城市突发性地质灾害是当今减灾的重点，已引起了广泛的关注。人们意识到灾后及时地采取应急抢险救援措施，可以有效地减少人员伤亡。灾害应急行动包括建立应急指挥机构，明确职责，并进行资源调配。灾害应急抢险救灾时实性强，其快速反应行动涉及危机管理、预警、撤离、避险，以及维护法律与社会秩序、信息通报、灾情评估。应急救援行动还包括城市基础和生命线的恢复，以确保受灾居民和社区的基本需求。论文在分析城市突发性地质灾害应急管理进展和存在问题的基础上，探讨了当前城市地质灾害应急反应系统中的监测预警系统、快速反应系统、应急指挥系统、应急避难系统、信息发布系统、空间信息系统和宣传教育系统：通过实施这些应急系统并制定预案可以达到减轻城市突发性地质灾害的目的。 相似文献
11.
浙江省突发性地质灾害应急空间辅助决策支持系统设计与实现 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
浙江省是我国东南沿海经济较发达的省份,但同时也是地质灾害多发频发的省份。近年来随着极端天气增多,我省各级行政管理部门的地质灾害应急工作面临着前所未有的挑战。本文介绍了我省突发性地质灾害应急空间辅助决策支持系统建设情况,提出了地质灾害应急辅助决策所涉及到的多源异构数据融合与集成的技术方法,构建了从灾（险）情报送、信息收集与分析、灾（险）情评价、专家会商到最终科学决策的突发性地质灾害空间辅助决策支持系统。本系统的建设极大的提高了我省突发性地质灾害应急决策能力,对其他省份的突发性地质灾害应急辅助决策支持系统的建设具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
12.
地面GPS探测大气的最新进展 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
综述了利用地面ＧＰＳ站探测大气的技术，包括基本原理，方法，应用，最新进展和结果的介绍以及存在于该技术的误差源的讨论。从地面ＧＰＳ站的观测和表面气象参数可得出天顶湿延迟的估计，再由它和可降水汽量之间的转换关系就可得出ＰＷＶ估计。这种方法求得的ＰＷＶ时间序列不仅能提高天气预报的准确度而且有助于气候变化的研究和数值天气预报模型的改进，这就是新兴学科ＧＰＳ气象学形成的基础。 相似文献
13.
Snowstorms can produce varying degrees of damage depending on the amount and intensity of the snowfall over a given amount
of time. Concurrent weather conditions such as freezing rain and high winds often exacerbate the amount of damage received.
In order to assess the frequency of potentially damaging conditions during climatologically significant snowstorms, the top
ten snowstorms (TTS) at individual First-Order Stations in the eastern two-thirds of the conterminous U.S. were determined,
and the hourly weather conditions during each event were analyzed. The results show that TTS have occurred as early as September
and as late as June, with January being the peak month of occurrence. Hourly precipitation totals during TTS were 2.3 mm or
less 88% of the time. Seven percent of TTS were classified as a blizzard with over half of the blizzards occurring in the
West North Central region. The most common concurrent weather condition during a TTS was fog followed by blowing snow. Regionally,
heavy snow events in the Northeast had relatively higher precipitation amounts, colder temperatures, higher winds, and more
fog and blowing snow than any other region. 相似文献
14.
陆面作为大气运动的下边界,通过动量、热量及物质交换与大气发生复杂的相互作用。陆面过程被认为是影响天气气候的关键过程之一。关于陆面过程对气候的影响已经开展了大量较为深入的研究,相比之下,针对陆面过程对天气的影响研究并没有受到足够的重视。近年来,陆面过程与天气研究也开始受到了越来越多的关注。本文从陆面基本要素、下垫面构成、陆面诱发的局地环流3个方面,回顾了土壤湿度、地形、土地利用、山谷-平原环流等要素和过程对强对流、暴雨、台风、高温热浪等天气事件影响研究的相关进展,以期为今后的研究提供参考。需要指出,尽管此方面的研究已取得了一定进展,但关于陆面过程对天气,尤其是极端(高影响)天气的影响及机制还有待深入研究,进而从陆面过程的角度来理解重要天气形成、发生和发展的机理,从而为数值模式发展和天气预报业务提供更有力的科学支撑。 相似文献
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16.
C. V. Srinivas R. Venkatesan N. V. Muralidharan Someshwar Das Hari Dass P. Eswara Kumar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(3):315-332
An operational atmospheric dispersion prediction system is implemented on a cluster supercomputer for Online Emergency Response
at the Kalpakkam nuclear site. This numerical system constitutes a parallel version of a nested grid meso-scale meteorological
model MM5 coupled to a random walk particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The system provides 48-hour forecast of the local weather
and radioactive plume dispersion due to hypothetical airborne releases in a range of 100 km around the site. The parallel
code was implemented on different cluster configurations like distributed and shared memory systems. A 16-node dual Xeon distributed
memory gigabit ethernet cluster has been found sufficient for operational applications. The runtime of a triple nested domain
MM5 is about 4 h for a 24 h forecast. The system had been operated continuously for a few months and results were ported on
the IMSc home page.
Initial and periodic boundary condition data for MM5 are provided by NCMRWF, New Delhi. An alternative source is found to
be NCEP, USA. These two sources provide the input data to the operational models at different spatial and temporal resolutions
using different assimilation methods. A comparative study on the results of forecast is presented using these two data sources
for present operational use. Improvement is noticed in rainfall forecasts that used NCEP data, probably because of its high
spatial and temporal resolution 相似文献
17.
利用最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)方法,建立了基于天气预报的参考作物腾发量(ET0)的预测模型.对广利灌区1997~2006年逐日气象信息中的天气类型和风速等级进行量化后,以不同天气预报信息作为输入量,建立10种验证方案,对2007年的逐日ET0进行预测.经验证,方案1~方案7精度均令人满意,其中方案1精度最高.方案1的输入量为气温、天气类型、风速等级3项的预测值,该方案的模型预测值与计算值的统计参数分别为:均方根偏差ERMS为0.5182 mm,相对偏差ER为0.1878,决定系数R2为0.864 8,认同系数IA为0.966 9,回归系数RC为0.9867;方案7精度亦较好,且以上指标统计参数依次为0.6576 mm、0.2332、0.986 6、0.774 7及0.986 6,该方案输入量只有气温项,实用性很强. 相似文献
18.
Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed. 相似文献
19.
In an emergency, schools are responsible for the safety of students until they can be reunited with their families. This study explored emergencies (i.e. bomb threat, a flood, and an earthquake) in three case study schools in New Zealand. Within each case, a selection of stakeholders (i.e. school leaders, staff, and parents) shared their experiences of responding to emergency events in the school. Lessons from participants’ experiences established factors before, during, and after an emergency that contribute to an effective response. Foremost among those factors was the importance of prior preparation. The study also identified recurring response activities, irrespective of emergency type, which enabled the development of a six-stage model of an effective school-based emergency response. The stages are: (1) Alerts; (2) Safety behaviours; (3) Response actions; (4) Student release/Family reunification; (5) Temporary school closure; and (6) Business as usual. The present study contributes to our understanding of research investigating how schools respond to emergencies and therefore seeks to enhance school safety efforts. 相似文献
20.
汛期地质灾害气象预报预警工作是一项系统工程,应建立完善的省级国土、气象专门管理机构——地质灾害气象预警中心。本文介绍了河南省汛期地质灾害气象预报预警系统的组织结构及管理体系、技术支持、硬件设施等3个层面。同时介绍了预报级别划分及预报信息发布方式。 相似文献