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针对区域群发性滑坡(泥石流)灾害概率预报预警系统(LAPS)应用发展的需要,提出基于ArcIMS的突发性地质灾害预报预警模式,开发完成浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报信息发布系统(LAPS-IMS)。该系统采用空间数据库引擎技术管理海量滑坡(泥石流)、地质、DEM、土地利用、土壤、降雨等数据。基于WebGIS技术实现了突发性地质灾害概率空间分布预报预警图的发布、信息查询、空间定位和空间叠加等功能。改变了先前仅以栅格图片发布灾害信息存在的缺陷,可传达现势的、准确的和直观的灾情信息。经系统试运行表明,该系统运行稳定、性能高效,在浙江省突发性地质灾害的预警预报及减灾防灾工作中起到了重要作用。 相似文献
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滑坡灾害预测预报分类 总被引：21，自引：2，他引：19
殷坤龙 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2003,14(4):12-18
有人主张滑坡灾害的空间和时间预测预报应是并存的,即脱离时间预测预报的空间预测是不可取的。但也有人认为两者可以相互独立而又互为补充。事实上,空间预测是时间预测预报的先决条件,只有在明确了预测的对象之后,方可有目的地开展滑坡灾害的时间预测预报。因而,一般地讲,滑坡灾害空间和时间预测具有先后序次关系。但从减灾的角度考虑,二者又具有相对的独立性。即可以在时间预测之外进行空间预测。目前对滑坡灾害预测预报分类的系统研究不多,所开展的预测预报事例报导基本上属于个例研究。论文将滑坡灾害预测预报分为空间和时间2大类,并进一步将空间预测划分成区域空间预测、地段空间预测和场地空间预测;将时间预测预报划分成长期时间预测、短期时间预测和临滑时间预测预报。文章针对滑坡灾害时间预测预报的特点,对预测预报的信息源进行了分析和分类。并对不同的工程阶段所要预测的滑坡灾害问题进行了分类归纳。 相似文献
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滑坡预警判据初步研究--以三峡库区为例 总被引：17，自引：2，他引：15
在三峡库区典型地段滑坡灾害调查评价和统计分析的基础上,结合典型滑坡变形发展的阶段性变形现象、标志和临界诱发因素分析,初步提出3个层次的滑坡预警预报判据27条,包括:(1)滑坡空间预测识别判据11条,主要用于滑坡或潜在危岩体空间识别和危险性区划,是滑坡空间预测的基本判据;(2)滑坡状态判据7条,主要用于滑坡单体稳定性评价的亚临界-临界状态预警判据,是滑坡状态预警判据系统的重要组成部分;(3)滑坡临界时间预报判据9条,主要用于单体滑坡剧烈变形或临滑预报,是滑坡时间预报研究的关键判据. 相似文献
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第一部分(Plumb和whitaker,本期)提出的闭合法对层状系统和二维空间间断系统进行了求解,其中我们所说的w和η区形成了在空间分布的孔隙介质。闭合法问题的解使我们得到确定大范围弥散张量所需要的数据和解大范围弥散方程所需要的另外一些参数。层状系统的理论结果展示的纵向弥散系数与利用室内视均质孔隙介质根据传统关系式所得到的纵向弥散系数相比要增大几个数量级。对于这种情况的研究,混合时间—空间系数看来是重要的,而且能够引起弥散系数增大的条件该系数值也增大。二维空间间断系统的结果与实验观测是一致的,而且我们发现非均匀性的规模和两个区之间的水力传导系数的差别对大范围弥散张量具有重要影响。正如层状介质情况那样,时间—空间混合导数(不对称向量)的系数的预测值表明该项可能是非均质孔隙介质的物质运移预报的一个重要的因子。 相似文献
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基于多层递阶方法的边坡位移预测 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
提出采用多层建模法预报边坡位移。该方法把动态系统的状态(或输出)预报问题分为系统的时变参数预报和在此基础上对系统的状态(或输出)预报两部分,可充分考虑被预报系统的时变特性。给出了多层递阶的建模和预报方法。工程实例表明该方法有较好的预测精度和实用价值。 相似文献
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为了能够准确有效地针对滑坡地质灾害进行监测和预报工作,给出一种新型的滑坡监测预报系统。该系统以GIS技术为基础,通过MapGIS软件形成图形文件的链接输入,实现与地理信息系统的融合。这种方法引入了滑坡空间滑动特征,可针对滑坡不同时段的特点采用多种预报模块实现对空间数据的处理,并通过VB6.0集成开发将结果还原至图形以可视化,来实现各类滑坡预报以及空间分析。将该监测预报系统应用到抚顺西露天矿地质灾害防治工作中,以GPS监测站等监测设施对抚顺西露天矿地质灾害开展的多类型的现场监测为依据, 对抚顺西露天矿地质灾害防治及预报进行分区模块处理;并以抚顺西露天矿E3200剖面滑坡为例,结合非线性回归分析及二次曲线拟合得到了X-3、X-5监测点的中短期预报数据和水平及竖直方向的速度、加速度等参量。根据竖直最大加速度为正值、竖直负向加速度小于10-5 m/d2以及水平加速度均为负值等特点,得到该滑坡基本处于匀速变形阶段及位移变化有收敛趋势的结论。 相似文献
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隧道综合参数超前地质预报技术研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文介绍一种新型的隧道施工综合超前地质预报系统USEP,该系统采用综合参数法进行超前地质预报,综合参数为"波速+电阻率".其中波速探测采用角度偏移和位置偏移的联合体系,电阻率探测采用瞬变脉冲电磁法重叠回线装置在掌子面进行扫描,最终实现综合参数及空间超前地质预报.文章利用课题组研发的USEP系统,结合108国道北京南村隧道的探测预报实例详细说明隧道综合参数及空间超前地质预报工作的原理与效果,并总结在复杂地质条件下采用"波速+电阻率"综合预报的必要性,它对隧道及地下工程施工超前地质预报工作有广泛的指导作用. 相似文献
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斜坡地质灾害的频发常常造成严重的经济损失,而斜坡地质灾害预报预警无疑是减少经济损失的主要手段。本文介绍了国内地质灾害预报预警方法研究及WebGIS系统开发现状,引入先进的RIA技术,构建RIA下的WebGIS体系结构;针对系统需求分析,进行了系统总体设计及详细设计,且基于ArcSDE Geodatabase和SQL Server技术设计并建立了空间数据库;最后利用面向对象的可视化编程语言C#基于WebGIS平台开发出了具有集查询检索、统计分析、空间分析、专题图制作、预报预警及动态维护等功能于一体的斜坡地质灾害气象预报预警信息系统。该系统的设计与实现,有助于提高斜坡地质灾害防灾减灾工作的能动性、高效性和准确性,最大限度地减少气象因素(降雨)诱发的斜坡地质灾害所造成的人员伤亡和财产损失。以云南省怒江州为例对系统各个功能进行了具体应用,为怒江州斜坡地质灾害防治及预测预报提供强劲有力的技术支撑。 相似文献
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This article addresses a new reserve estimation method which uses fuzzy modeling algorithms and estimates the reserve parameters
based on spatial variability. The proposed fuzzy modeling approach has three stages: (1) Structure identification and preliminary
clustering, (2) Variogram analysis, and (3) Clustering based rule system. A new clustering index approach and a new spatial
measure function (point semimadogram) are proposed in the paper. The developed methodology uses spatial variability in each
step and takes the fuzzy rules from input-output data. The model has been tested using both simulated and real data sets.
The performance evaluation indicates that the new methodology can be applied in reserve estimation and similar modeling problems 相似文献
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This paper describes a proposed method for clustering attributes on the basis of their spatial variability and the uncertainty of cluster membership. The method is applied to geometallurgical domaining in mining applications. The main objective of geometallurgical clustering is to ensure consistent feed to a processing plant by minimising transitions between different types of feed coming from different domains (clusters). For this purpose, clusters should contain not only similar geometallurgical characteristics but also be located in as few contiguous and compact spatial locations as possible so as to maximise the homogeneity of ore delivered to the plant. Most existing clustering methods applied to geometallurgy have two problems. Firstly, they are unable to differentiate subsets of attributes at the cluster level and therefore cluster membership can only be assigned on the basis of exactly identical attributes, which may not be the case in practice. Secondly, as they do not take account of the spatial relationships they can produce clusters which may be spatially dispersed and/or overlapped. In the work described in this paper a new clustering method is introduced that integrates three distinct steps to ensure quality clustering. In the first step, fuzzy membership information is used to minimise compactness and maximise separation. In the second step, the best subsets of attributes are defined and applied for domaining purposes. These two steps are iterated to convergence. In the final step a graph-based labelling method, which takes spatial constraints into account, is used to produce the final clusters. Three examples are presented to illustrate the application of the proposed method. These examples demonstrate that the proposed method can reveal useful relationships among geometallurgical attributes within a clear and compact spatial structure. The resulting clusters can be used directly in mine planning to optimise the ore feed to be delivered to the processing plant. 相似文献
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0-1混沌测试方法是一种新的可直接作用于时间序列的混沌识别方法,不需要进行相空间重构,通过对Chebyshev映射的检验验证了有效性。运用0-1方法对中国640个气象站1960-2011年月降水序列进行混沌识别,并运用基于密度的顾及非空间属性的空间聚类方法（DBSC）对计算结果进行空间聚类。结果表明,各气象站月降水序列均表现出明显的混沌特性,且K值的空间分布具有明显的分区特征：从大尺度上看,全国可分为西北高值区、南方次高区、华北-东北中值区和青藏低值区;从小尺度上看,全国分出了29个空间簇。中国降水混沌空间聚类结果不仅与大尺度的气候类型分布相吻合,而且也反映了局部降水动力系统变化特征,这就为降水系统的时空规律研究提供了一条新的途径和方法。 相似文献
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针对高斯混合模型(GMM)在空间聚类中由于忽视目标对象之间的空间关联性而导致的高误判率等问题,本文提出了一种顾及梯度的高斯混合模型:GMM-G,并将其应用在三维属性场的空间聚类中。GMM-G用反映标量场最大属性变化方向的梯度因子来定义邻域规则,设定梯度正交平面所通过的邻域体元更倾向于与中心体元归属于相同或相近的类别;并据此设计了符合归一性和空间连续性的空间邻域信息函数,来定义中心体元属于各类别的具有空间领域规则约束的后验概率。通过对由蒙特卡洛随机抽样构建的实验场的空间聚类结果进行对比表明,相对GMM方法,GMM-G具有更优的聚类精度及效率。最后,把GMM-G方法用于红透山铜矿区可控源音频大地电磁法(CSAMT)三维视电阻率场的空间聚类,得到了与已知岩性划分具有较高匹配度的分类结果,该方法可为物性属性场的岩性划分及地质推断提供相关的依据和参考。 相似文献
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Interpretation of regional scale, multivariate geochemical data is aided by a statistical technique called “clustering.” We investigate a particular clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data collected in the State of Colorado, United States of America. The clustering procedure partitions the field samples for the entire survey area into two clusters. The field samples in each cluster are partitioned again to create two subclusters, and so on. This manual procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters, and the different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical and geological processes occurring at different spatial scales. Although there are many different clustering methods, we use Bayesian finite mixture modeling with two probability distributions, which yields two clusters. The model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability density function, which usually has multiple modes. Each mode has its own set of model parameters; each set is checked to ensure that it is consistent both with the data and with independent geologic knowledge. The set of model parameters that is most consistent with the independent geologic knowledge is selected for detailed interpretation and partitioning of the field samples. 相似文献
17.
Application and verification of a fractal approach to landslide susceptibility mapping 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Landslide susceptibility mapping is essential for land-use activities and management decision making in hilly or mountainous
regions. The existing approaches to landslide susceptibility zoning and mapping require many different types of data. In this
study, we propose a fractal method to map landslide susceptibility using historical landslide inventories only. The spatial
distribution of landslides is generally not uniform, but instead clustered at many different scales. In the method, we measure
the degree of spatial clustering of existing landslides in a region using a box-counting method and apply the derived fractal
clustering relation to produce a landslide susceptibility map by means of GIS-supported spatial analysis. The method is illustrated
by two examples at different regional scales using the landslides inventory data from Zhejiang Province, China, where the
landslides are mainly triggered by rainfall. In the illustrative examples, the landslides from the inventory are divided into
two time periods: The landslides in the first period are used to produce a landslide susceptibility map, and those in the
late period are taken as validation samples for examining the predictive capability of the landslide susceptibility maps.
These examples demonstrate that the landslide susceptibility map created by the proposed technique is reliable. 相似文献
18.
Spatial characterization of the location of potentially leaky wells penetrating a deep saline aquifer in a mature sedimentary basin 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This work was motivated by considerations of potential leakage pathways for CO2 injected into deep geological formations for the purpose of carbon sequestration. Because existing wells represent a potentially important leakage pathway, a spatial analysis of wells that penetrate a deep aquifer in the Alberta Basin was performed and various statistical measures to quantify the spatial distribution of these wells were presented. The data indicate spatial clustering of wells, due to oil and gas production activities. The data also indicate that the number of wells that could be impacted by CO2 injection, as defined by the spread of an injected CO2 plume, varies from several hundred in high well-density areas to about 20 in low-density areas. These results may be applied to other mature continental sedimentary basins in North America and elsewhere, where detailed information on well location and status may not be available. 相似文献
19.
A Methodology for the Definition of Geotechnical Mine Sectors Based on Multivariate Cluster Analysis
Nazareth Ana Flávia Delbem Vidigal Lana Milene Sabino 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(6):4405-4426
This paper offers a new method for the definition of geotechnical sectors in open pit mines based on multivariate cluster analysis. A geological-geotechnical data set of a manganese open pit mine was used to demonstrate the methodology. The data set consists of a survey of geological and geotechnical parameters of the rock mass, measured directly in several points of the mine, structured initially in twenty-eight variables. After the preprocessing of the data set, the clustering technique was applied using the k-Prototype algorithm. The squared Euclidean distance was used to quantify the proximity between numerical variables, and the Jaccard's coefficient of similarity was used to quantify the proximity between the nominal variables. The different cluster results obtained were validated by the multivariate analysis of variance. The identification of cluster structures was achieved by plotting them on the mine map for spatial visualization and definition of geotechnical sectors. These sectors are spatially contiguous and relatively homogeneous regarding their geological–geotechnical properties, indicated by a high density of points of the same group. It was possible to observe a great adherence of the proposed sectors to the mine geology, demonstrating the practical representativeness of the clustering results and the proposed sectors.
相似文献