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1.
重大地质灾害应急响应技术支撑体系研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
地质灾害应急响应是一种涉及因素多、技术含量高、时间要求紧、工作任务重和社会影响大的危机事件管理行为,也是一种跨阶段、高要求、大集成、快反应和求实效的非常规防灾减灾行动。针对重大地质灾害的应急响应,为了探索减小地质风险和在风险下生存的途径,必须创建一个有灾害意识、有充分准备的政府或社区应急管理技术支撑体系。技术体系包括人才团队、技术装备、理论方法等方面。人才团队要求科学技术素养深厚,工作高效实用;技术装备要求简单、快速并有效;理论方法追求支撑防灾减灾决策的"满意解"或"有用解"。技术支撑具体针对地质灾害"险情应急"和"灾情应急"2种类型,前者突出预测预警与应急处置的防灾方法,后者重在成因分析与减灾行动。工作程序上划分为响应启动、调查评价、监测预警、会商定性、防控论证、决策指挥、实施检验和总结完善8个阶段。技术路线包括地质环境信息获取、分析研判、预测预警、模拟仿真、技术方案论证、风险评估与决策支持6个步骤。为了促进地质灾害应急响应从经验走向科学,从感性判断走向理性量化,尽快提升和加强对重大地质灾害应急管理的技术支撑能力,立足于国家层面的决策需求初步提出了重大地质灾害应急响应的科学技术工作框架体系。 相似文献
2.
The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Steering Committee consists of representatives from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the states of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. The program addresses three major components: hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation. The first two components, hazard assessment and warning guidance, are led by physical scientists who, using research and modeling methods, develop products that allow communities to identify their tsunami hazard areas and receive more accurate and timely warning information. The third component, mitigation, is led by the emergency managers who use their experience and networks to translate science and technology into user-friendly planning and education products. Mitigation activities focus on assisting federal, state, and local officials who must plan for and respond to disasters, and for the public that is deeply affected by the impacts of both the disaster and the pre-event planning efforts. The division between the three components softened as NTHMP scientists and emergency managers worked together to develop the best possible products for the users given the best available science, technology, and planning methods using available funds. 相似文献
3.
How societies organize themselves to respond to cascading impacts exacerbated by climate change will help define the future of disaster planning, mitigation, response, and recovery. Current emergency management risk analyses focus on identifying a broad array of threats and hazards that may affect an area. However, there is limited attention and understanding of the totality of hazard impacts, the relationship of consequences across disasters, and the dangers of not addressing critical capabilities necessary to rapidly managing consequences—including the potential to create new incidents within incidents. Through a focused review of the related literature and guiding policy documents, this study aims to provide a cascading consequence-based framework that can support emergency managers in the analysis of their jurisdictional risks, development of emergency operations plans, and decision-making. Results include the identification of an alternative framework to identify cascading networks, the creation of a supplementary model for downstream risk assessment, and refined Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis (THIRA) outputs for improved grant allocation. The proposed framework has the potential to help organizations factor both conspicuous and downstream consequences into their Emergency Operations Plans in the planning and mitigations phases. This proposed refinement, which looks deeper into the progression of a disaster, has both national and international implications.
相似文献4.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):424-440
In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site—specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site—specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate—scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard. and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake—induced lateral—spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral—spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (CIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does; however, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy. 相似文献
5.
Zhu Chonghao Zhang Jianjing Liu Yang Ma Donghua Li Mengfang Xiang Bo 《Natural Hazards》2020,101(1):173-194
Communities everywhere are being subjected to a variety of natural hazard events that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. As a result, community resilience assessment in these locations is gaining popularity as a means to help better prepare for, respond to, and recover from potentially disruptive events. The objective of this study was to identify key vulnerabilities relevant to addressing rural community resilience through conducting an initial flood impact analysis, with a specific focus on emergency response and transportation network accessibility. It included a use case involving the flooding of a rural community along the US inland waterway system. Special consideration was given to impacts experienced by at-risk populations (e.g., low economic status, youth, and elderly), given their unique vulnerabilities. An important backdrop to this work is recognition that Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazus, a free, publicly available tool, is commonly recommended by the agency for counties, particularly those with limited resources (i.e., rural areas), to use in developing their hazard mitigation plans. The case study results, however, demonstrate that Hazus, as currently utilized, has some serious deficiencies in that it: (1) likely underestimates the flood extent boundaries for study regions in a Level 1 analysis (which solely relies upon filling digital elevation models with precipitation), (2) may be incorrectly predicting the number and location of damaged buildings due to its reliance on out-of-date census data and the assumption that buildings are evenly distributed within a census block, and (3) is incomplete in its reporting of the accessibility of socially vulnerable populations and response capabilities of essential facilities. Therefore, if counties base their flood emergency response plans solely on Hazus results, they are likely to be underprepared for future flood events of significant magnitude. An approach in which Hazus results can be augmented with additional data and analyses is proposed to provide a more risk-informed assessment of community-level flood resilience.
相似文献6.
Shabana Khan 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1587-1607
An understanding of vulnerability is not only crucial for the survival of the exposed communities to extreme events, but also for their adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability affects community participation in hazard mitigation, influences emergency response and governs adaptive capacity for the changing environmental and hazards characteristics. However, despite increased awareness, assessments and understanding of the processes that produce vulnerability, disaster risks prevail. This raises questions on the effectiveness of vulnerability assessments and their applications for hazard mitigation and adaptation. The literature includes a range of vulnerability assessment methods, wherein frequently the selection of any particular method is governed by the research objectives. On the other hand, hazard mitigation plans and policies even though mention vulnerability, their implementation pays less attention to the variations in its nature and underlying causes. This paper explores possible reasons for such gaps by exploring a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand. It brings out the limitations of different vulnerability assessment methods in representing the local vulnerability and challenges they bring in planning for the vulnerability reduction. It argues that vulnerability assessment based on any particular method, such as deprivation index, principle component analysis, composite vulnerability index with or without weight, may not reveal the actual vulnerability of a place, and therefore, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment is needed. 相似文献
7.
Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities. 相似文献
8.
Taiwan has long made efforts to increase community emergency response capability, due to its vulnerability to earthquakes,
typhoons, landslides and debris flows. Not until recent major natural disasters, such as the 1999 Chi–Chi Earthquake, Typhoon
Toraji and Typhoon Nari, has the government reformed its policy toward empowering the community to take actions in hazard
mitigation, emergency preparedness and emergency response. A new initiatve, Integrated Community-Based Disaster Management
Program (ICBDM), was launched in 2001 by the Executive Yuan to achieve the goal of strengthening community resistance. The
paper, taking Shang-An Village as an example, describes Taiwan’s new community-based disaster management program. Through
a participatory process, community residents have learned how to analyze vulnerable conditions, discover problems, develop
solutions and establish an organization to implement disaster management tasks. Further, basic response training courses and
a disaster scenario were held in order to improve their emergency response capability. Based on the case study, a phased process,
including initiation, assessment, planning and practice, is generalized. 相似文献
9.
Perception about people’s behaviour during emergencies defines, to a large extent, the course of planning and resource allocation for community emergency response as well as development of mitigation measures. During the past decade, there has been a paradigm shift in the approach to disaster management. A recent trend has been to encourage more community participation as opposed to the top-down approach of the past. It is believed that community participation will bring about a comprehensive and accurate appreciation of people’s perception regarding hazards, risk, vulnerability, and resilience, and this research is an attempt to achieve just that. In order to accomplish our goal, we engaged a group of women that would typically fall into the category of “vulnerable group” in a focus group interview setting. The participants were mainly over 40 years old, the majority with little education, unemployed, facing language barriers, of low income, and reliant on public transit. Many participants identified that they lived in the vicinity of rivers, lakes, railways, or power plants, but did not seem to be aware of their exposure to potential threats—indicating a lack of education and awareness. The most common hazards and mitigation measures they were aware of, included floods (including basement flooding), fire, fire alarm, and smoke detectors. Additionally, illness and loneliness were mentioned as factors contributing to their increased vulnerability, hence reduced resiliency. With the help of the focus group members’ participation, we were able to discuss the importance of communities being aware of their surroundings, available resources and help, and permit them to voice their concerns in order to be able to cope during emergencies. We trust and hope that more community participation will lead to stronger and more resilient cities. 相似文献
10.
城市突发性地质灾害应急系统探讨 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
唐川 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2005,16(3):104-110
城市突发性地质灾害是当今减灾的重点，已引起了广泛的关注。人们意识到灾后及时地采取应急抢险救援措施，可以有效地减少人员伤亡。灾害应急行动包括建立应急指挥机构，明确职责，并进行资源调配。灾害应急抢险救灾时实性强，其快速反应行动涉及危机管理、预警、撤离、避险，以及维护法律与社会秩序、信息通报、灾情评估。应急救援行动还包括城市基础和生命线的恢复，以确保受灾居民和社区的基本需求。论文在分析城市突发性地质灾害应急管理进展和存在问题的基础上，探讨了当前城市地质灾害应急反应系统中的监测预警系统、快速反应系统、应急指挥系统、应急避难系统、信息发布系统、空间信息系统和宣传教育系统：通过实施这些应急系统并制定预案可以达到减轻城市突发性地质灾害的目的。 相似文献
11.
Navid Attary John W. van de Lindt Hussam Mahmoud Steve Smith Christopher M. Navarro Yong Wook Kim Jong Sung Lee 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(3):1295-1316
Resiliency of communities prone to natural hazards can be enhanced through the use of risk-informed decision-making tools. These tools can provide community decision makers key information, thereby providing them the ability to consider an array of mitigation and/or recovery strategies. The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, headquartered at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, developed an Interdependent Networked Community Resilience (IN-CORE) computational environment. The purpose of developing this computational environment is to build a decision-support system, for professional risk planners and emergency responders, but even more focused on allowing researchers to explore community resilience science. The eventual goal was being to integrate a broad range of scientific, engineering and observational data to produce a detailed assessment of the potential impact of natural and man-made hazards for risk mitigation, planning and recovery purposes. The developing computational environment will be capable of simulating the effects from different natural hazards on the physical and socioeconomic sectors of a community, accounting for interdependencies between the sectors. However, in order to validate this computational tool, hindcasting of a real event was deemed necessary. Therefore, in this study, the community of Joplin, Missouri in the USA, which was hit by an EF-5 tornado on May 22, 2011, is modeled in the IN-CORE v1.0 computational environment. An explanation of the algorithm used within IN-CORE is also provided. This tornado was the costliest and deadliest single tornado in the USA in the last half century. Using IN-CORE, by uploading a detailed topological dataset of the community and the estimated tornado path combined with recently developed physics-based tornado fragilities, the damage caused by the tornado to all buildings in the city of Joplin was estimated. The results were compared with the damage reported from field studies following the event. This damage assessment was done using three hypothetical idealized tornado scenarios, and results show very good correlation with observed damage which will provide useful information to decision makers for community resilience planning. 相似文献
12.
Poverty and Disasters in the United States: A Review of Recent Sociological Findings 总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2
This article synthesizes the literature on poverty and disasters in the United States and presents the results from a wide range of studies conducted over the past twenty years. The findings are organized into eight categories based on the stages of a disaster event. The review illustrates how people of different socioeconomic statuses perceive, prepare for, and respond to natural hazard risks, how low-income populations may be differentially impacted, both physically and psychologically, and how disaster effects vary by social class during the periods of emergency response, recovery, and reconstruction. The literature illustrates that the poor in the United States are more vulnerable to natural disasters due to such factors as place and type of residence, building construction, and social exclusion. The results have important implications for social equity and recommendations for future research and policy implementation are offered. 相似文献
13.
David King 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):497-508
The concept of a natural hazard is a human construct. It is the interaction with human communities and settlements that defines
a natural phenomenon as a natural hazard. Thus the end point of hazard mitigation and hazard vulnerability assessment must
involve an attempt to reduce, or mitigate, the impact of the natural hazard on human communities. The responsibility to mitigate
hazard impact falls primarily upon governments and closely connected non-government and private institutional agencies. In
particular, it is most often local government that takes the responsibility for safeguarding its own communities, infrastructure
and people. Hazard vulnerability of specific local communities is best assessed by the local government or council, which
then faces the responsibility to translate that assessment into community education and infrastructural safeguards for hazard
mitigation. This paper illustrates the process of local government engagement in hazard mitigation in Australia, through the
Natural Disaster Risk Management Studies, as a first step towards natural disaster reduction. 相似文献
14.
The present state-of-the-art for natech risk and management is discussed. Examples of recent natechs include catastrophic
oil spills associated with Hurricane Katrina and hazardous chemical releases in Europe during the heavy floods of 2002. Natechs
create difficult challenges for emergency responders due to the geographical extent of the natural disaster, the likelihood
of simultaneous releases, emergency personnel being preoccupied with response to the natural disaster, mitigation measures
failing due to the effects of the natural disaster, and others. Recovery from natechs may be much more difficult than for
“normal” chemical accidents, as the economic and social conditions of the industrial facility and the surrounding community
may have been drastically altered by the natural disaster. Potential safeguards against natechs include adoption of stricter
design criteria, chemical process safeguards, community land use planning, disaster mitigation and response planning, and
sustainable industrial processes, but these safeguards are only sporadically applied. Ultimately, the public must engage in
a comprehensive discussion of acceptable risks for natechs.
相似文献
| Ana Maria CruzEmail: |
15.
Risk Assessment,Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood,Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts.In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants. 相似文献
16.
Yongjun Yang Xuefeng Ren Shaoliang Zhang Fu Chen Huping Hou 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(6):245
A practical issue is present in sustaining and rehabilitating the ecologically vulnerable post-mining area in which the environmental condition varies spatially and therefore influenced by multiple factors. This paper attempts to integrate the ecological vulnerability assessment and rehabilitation treatment to assist land managers in revealing vulnerable features along with developing treatments of vulnerability mitigation. Using a post-mining site in a mountainous area in western China as study area, an indicator system and framework for assessing and reducing vulnerability were developed based on a vulnerability analysis. Geo-informatics, such as satellite image processing and spatial analysis, were employed to perform the assessment and planning. It was found that higher exposure and sensitivity are the main causes of increased vulnerability in a seriously disturbed post-mining area. Rehabilitation treatments were arranged spatially and structurally based on the framework of vulnerability mitigation. A pre-evaluation of the effectiveness shows this type of rehabilitation has a convergence effect that clusters and lowers the ecological vulnerability index (EVI). The average value of EVI will be reduced by 15.02% if the minimum standards of rehabilitation can be completed. Altogether, an integration of rehabilitation treatments and the quantification of vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner are critical for planners to gain more insight into ecological vulnerability in post-mining area, which provides guidance to simplify rehabilitation planning with respect to vulnerability mitigation. 相似文献
17.
O. Mistage P. Bilotta 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2018,15(6):1331-1342
Keeping temperature rise well below 2 °C is Paris Climate Agreement’s main commitment and corporate-level participation will be crucial to achieve national mitigation targets. Hence, companies should adopt measures that allow them to adapt to upcoming scenarios where low-carbon production is expected to become mandatory and a great competitive advantage. However, mitigation strategies cannot be evaluated without consideration of subjective environmental criteria. Consequently, lack of decision support methodologies for climate change evaluation in industries is a barrier for innovation. Aiming at consideration of non-monetary aspects, we develop a support method that incorporates costs, benefits, opportunities and risks related to climate change in manufacturing industries. First, we compared the most relevant multi-criteria decision analysis methodologies and identified an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the most suitable for ranking corporate climate change strategies. Then, we collected global analysis criteria from the most important socially responsible investment indices, and climate change scientific studies. To adapt these criteria to the AHP method, each criterion was sorted into benefits, opportunities, costs or risks hierarchies. Proposed method was efficient for assessing long-term subjective criteria and ranking alternatives for GHG emission management in two large manufacturing companies. A sensitivity analysis of the outcome revealed its consistency and flexibility for ranking alternatives and weighting criteria. Finally, the method is not limited to a particular type of industry and it can be adapted to other areas, such as service companies, sanitation or public sector. 相似文献
18.
Comprehensive hazard mitigation involves (1) understanding natural systems, (2) assessment of interactions within and between social systems and the built environment, and (3) understanding geo-spatial processes. To achieve this, local emergency managers must recognize variability in vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. In this study, we assess whether cities in Los Angeles County are subject to disproportionally greater earthquake losses modeled from a M7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault. Furthermore, we analyze whether the variation in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics across cities is associated with the earthquake losses. We were able to explain 23.2?% of variance in economic losses by looking at the percentage of minority residents, income, and renter residents in a city [F(3,84)?=?8.47; p?<?.001]. Cities with primarily minority residents had greater economic losses when compared to cities with primarily White residents (b?=?1.01; p?<?.001). When looking at the association between demographic predictors and potential casualty rate, the percentage of Hispanic residents was positively associated with the potential casualty rate. We argue that knowledge of the relationship between earthquake hazard and the demographic characteristics of people in the area at risk is essential to mitigate the local impact from earthquakes. In other words, we apply social vulnerability assessment as part of a comprehensive risk management framework to accelerate recovery after an event. Local policy makers and the private sector can use this approach to gain a better understanding of a city??s social vulnerability and adapt their preparedness efforts accordingly. 相似文献
19.
In urban area, popular and property is accumulated in a small area, potential risk of earthquake disaster in urban community
is great. Pre-disaster emergency evacuation zoning has become a significant topic of disaster prevention and mitigation research.
Based on the present layout of evacuation facilities and shelters as well as the evacuation demands in urban communities,
a systematical methodology for occupant evacuation against earthquakes on community scale was developed by employing spatial
analysis techniques of Geographical Information System (GIS). The methodology included the following aspects: the distribution
analysis of emergency evacuation demands, the calculation of shelter space accessibility, and the optimization of evacuation
destinations. This methodology was applied to Lujiazui Street in Pudong, a new district located in Shanghai, China. It was
found that the proposed methodology could be used to formulate pre-event planning for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation
on a community scale, especially for organizing a rapid and smooth evacuation and optimizing the location allocation of shelters. 相似文献