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1.
Modeling uncertainty in stability analysis for design of embankment dams on difficult foundations 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A probabilistic 3-D slope stability analysis model (PTDSSAM) is developed to evaluate the stability of embankment dams and their foundations under conditions of staged construction taking into consideration uncertainty, spatial variabilities and correlations of shear strength parameters, as well as the uncertainties in pore water pressure. The model has the following capabilities: (1) conducting undrained shear strength analysis (USA) and effective stress analysis (ESA) slope stability analysis of staged construction, (2) incorporation of field monitored data of pore water pressure, and (3) incorporation of increase of undrained shear strength with depth, effective stress, and pore water pressure dissipation. The PTDSSAM model is incorporated in a computer program that can analyze slopes located in multilayered deposits, considering the total slope width.
The main outputs of the program are the geometric parameters of the most critical sliding surface (i.e., center of rotation/radius of rotation and critical width of failure), mean 2-D safety factor, mean 3-D safety factor, squared coefficient of variation of resisting moment, and the probability of slope failure. The program is applied to a case study, Karameh dam in Jordan. Monitored data of induced pore water pressure in the dam embankment and soft foundation were gathered during dam construction.
The stability of Karameh dam embankment and foundation was evaluated during staged construction using deterministic and probabilistic analysis. Foundation stability was evaluated based on the monitored data of pore water pressure.
The study showed that the mean values of the corrective factors which account for the discrepancies between the in situ and laboratory-measured values of soil properties and for the modeling errors have significant influence on the 2-D safety factor, 3-D safety factor, slope probability of failure, and on the expected failure width.
The degree of spatial correlation associated with shear strength parameters within a soil deposit also influences the probability of slope failure and the expected failure width. This correlation is quantified by scale of fluctuation. It is found that a larger scale of fluctuation gives an increase in the probability of slope failure and a reduction in the critical failure width. 相似文献
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泥石流拦砂坝底的扬压力会抵消坝体的部分有效荷重,影响其抗倾覆稳定性。为了研究拦砂坝底扬压力的分布规律及其影响因素,设计制作了拦砂坝模型和扬压力采集系统,开展了不同沟床坡度和不同坝前堆积条件下的扬压力模拟试验。试验结果表明,扬压力自坝踵至坝趾不断减小,且与渗流距离呈线性关系,当坝前有堆积物时相关系数绝对值达到0.98以上;沟床坡度明显影响坝底扬压力的分布。随着沟床坡度的增加,扬压力不断减小,且对坝踵处扬压力的影响较坝趾处更大;坝底和坝前堆积物的渗透性对扬压力的影响也很显著,它们的渗透性越差,扬压力就越小;坝前堆积物的渗透性还显著影响扬压力的分布规律,渗透性越差,其分布规律性就越强。研究成果为深入研究泥石流拦砂坝底扬压力的作用过程和作用机制奠定了基础。 相似文献
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卡拉水电站坝区渗流控制效应精细模拟与评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
卡拉水电站坝址区河谷狭窄,岸坡陡峻,地质条件复杂,渗漏问题突出。为减小卡拉坝区渗漏并改善大坝的渗透稳定性,工程设计采取防渗帷幕、排水孔幕和排水洞等防渗排水措施。采用子结构、变分不等式和自适应罚函数相结合的方法（简称SVA方法）,结合典型溢流坝段与坝区整体渗流场分析成果,评价卡拉大坝及坝基渗流控制方案的合理性,并论证其优化的可能性。研究表明：①防渗帷幕有效雍高了帷幕上游侧岩体内的地下水位、增加了绕坝渗流的渗径长度并降低了坝基的扬压力,排水系统则显著降低了坝体内的孔隙水压力以及坝基扬压力;②排水孔幕间距对坝体内的自由面分布有着显著影响,排水孔幕间距取3.0～4.5 m是合适的。 相似文献
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地震工况下坝坡的抗滑安全系数取值标准研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地震工况下的坝坡抗滑稳定性核算一直是大坝安全性评价的重要环节,采用科学合理的计算方法是评价坝坡安全性的基本保证。本文从概率极限分析的角度探讨了坝坡稳定性可靠度分析的概率意义,提出了将地震发生当做概率事件的坝坡可靠度计算方法。为验证将地震超越概率纳入坝坡稳定分析中的合理性,本文通过两个典型算例和小浪底坝坡典型剖面的抗滑稳定性分析研究了坝坡在地震工况下的单一安全系数与可靠指标的变化规律。研究结果表明在坝坡稳定分析中引入超越概率计算所得结果与工程实际相符,与以往的将地震发生当做确定性事件计算方法相比,该方法显著提高了坝坡的可靠指标值;比较可靠指标与单一安全系数的取值标准显示出在坝坡稳定分析中合理地引入地震概率分析方法能够保证坝坡在地震和正常工况下有相近的可靠指标值 相似文献
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In dam safety assessment, it is customary to focus on stability analysis, and the safety factor is regarded as an assessment
index that cannot correctly reflect the effect of multi-factors and variable uncertainty. The factors that induce dam breaks
are complex and uncertain; however, three primary ones can be identified: hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability.
In this paper, the risk probability and the dam break threshold value for each factor individually, as well as coupled factors,
are studied. The threshold value is acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The Dongwushi
reservoir located in the Hebei province of China is taken as a case study. The results show that the dam break threshold values
for hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability are 2.53, 2.02 and 2.69, respectively. The integrated dam break
threshold value for the coupled factors is 1.25, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress according to the established
risk assessment standard. The safety factor is calculated as 1.15 using the Bishop method, which indicates that the dam is
under serious stress. The results obtained by the proposed method are consistent with those of the Bishop method. Finally,
the proposed theory and method are introduced into a dam safety evaluation system (DSES) for convenient and efficient dam
safety management. 相似文献
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《工程地质学报》2020,28(5):1140-1146
基于连续性方程、达西定律和伯努利表达式,在合理的假设条件下,本文推导了水平岩土层的实体拦砂坝基底处关键点的水压力解析式,通过与数值模拟(Autobank有限元程序)对比可知,本文解析式与数值分析结果误差非常小,其误差基本控制在1%以内,该解析方法是可靠稳定的。本文还进一步讨论了该方法的应用价值,依据得出的水头,可计算构筑物下游x处的水力坡降,判断构筑物下游土体的渗透变形类型,也可估算需要处理的范围以及对护坦长度的设计提供依据。依据相关文献结论,提出运用该解析式计算有坡度的沟床的拦砂坝基底扬压力偏于安全,并且提出了该解析式计算实体拦砂坝底部水压力是否需要考虑“地基的有效深度”对基底水压力的影响问题,此问题还需要进一步研究。 相似文献
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沉桩会对码头边坡稳定产生不利影响,一是引起桩周土体超孔隙水压力的急剧上升,导致土体有效应力降低;二是沉桩的振动加速度会产生对边坡稳定不利的瞬时惯性力。对于灵敏度低的土质岸坡来说,前者是影响其稳定性的主要因素。考虑沉桩时初始超孔隙水压力的分布,根据Biot固结方程超孔隙水压力消散解的一般表达式,建立了沉桩引起的超孔隙水压力随时间消散的解析式,在条分法的基础上考虑沉桩产生的超孔隙水压力的不利影响,建立了沉桩时边坡稳定安全系数的计算公式。根据沉桩顺序对某码头进行边坡稳定分析,结果表明：考虑打桩作用的岸坡稳定安全系数明显降低,沉桩产生的超孔隙水压力逐渐消散,边坡稳定安全系数随沉桩工序历时变化,施工中期由于超孔隙水压力叠加,岸坡最危险,沉桩结束3个月以后,超孔隙水压力基本消散,边坡稳定安全系数接近不考虑沉桩时的值。工程中要根据打桩计划进行边坡稳定计算。 相似文献
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由于可液化砂质土应力-应变特性模拟的复杂性及数值计算的不稳定性,深厚砂质覆盖层土坝的弹塑性地震反应分析是土坝抗震研究中的一个尚未完全解决的课题。采用u-p完全耦合的饱和多孔介质有限元分析方法和砂土多重机构弹塑性模型,对遭受M6.7级地震的国外某深厚砂质覆盖层土坝进行弹塑性地震反应分析,研究了坝体和地基的动力反应特性及其超静孔隙水压力产生、扩散和消散的变化规律。结果表明：计算得到的坝体加速度和永久变形与实测值存在一定的差异,但基本上反映了坝体加速度与永久变形的实际分布情况,从而说明采用的本构模型和计算方法具有一定的精度;由于坝体和坝基的超静孔隙水压力较小,且坝体永久变形不大,可以不对坝体和坝基进行加固处理;坝趾附近浅层地基的超静孔隙水压力较大,有可能发生液化,因此,须采取相应的抗液化加固措施。 相似文献
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为了能够真实反映砭家沟尾矿库的稳定特性,运用Monte Carlo试验原理,考虑库区砂层的空间变异特性,利用Slope/W软件对尾矿库进行了概率分析与敏感性分析。分析表明,抽样方式的不同,使尾矿坝体失稳概率和可靠性指标发生了大幅波动,但是并没有使安全系数产生明显变化,也验证了仅将安全系数作为衡量尾矿坝体稳定性的唯一标准是不合适的;敏感性分析也表明了砂层主要参数对安全系数影响的敏感程度,同时也表明黏聚力是影响库区稳定的主要砂层因素。通过研究,为尾矿库今后的运行与管理提供了理论依据,具有一定的指导意义。 相似文献
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Behnam Mansuri Farzin Salmasi Behrooz Oghati 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2014,32(5):1165-1173
Some facility for the prevention of piping, reducing exit gradient and seepage amount under hydraulic structures, is construction of cutoff wall and drain. Therefore, this study compares the efficiency of cutoff wall on some design parameters in an assumed diversion dam cross-section. For this purpose, different placements of cutoff wall with various angle of inclination were used in the dam foundation. Results of this study showed that minimum uplift pressure happens when cut off wall is in the heel (upstream) of the dam. With fixing of longitudinal cut off wall placement, inclination of cutoff wall respect to the vertical position, results in reducing of uplift pressure. Effect of inclination of cutoff wall in upstream of the dam; respect to vertical position, in reducing of uplift pressure is very high. 相似文献
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针对土坡稳定体系可靠度分析问题,提出了一种分析方法框架,包括采用缩减方差抽样技术生成随机变量样本值、采用全局优化算法搜索边坡最小安全系数、采用Monte-Carlo法计算边坡体系可靠度3个主要部分。在此框架下,建立了一种较为简便实用的高土石坝坝坡稳定体系可靠度分析方法。该方法采用拉丁超立方抽样技术生成随机变量的样本值,再用商业软件STAB搜索相应的坝坡最小安全系数,最后用可靠指标法或Monte-Carlo法计算坝坡体系可靠度。工程算例表明,筑坝材料强度参数的随机不确定性对坝坡临界滑弧的位置影响较大,坝坡稳定体系可靠度小于单一滑动面的坝坡稳定最小可靠度,提出的方法可用于实际工程坝坡稳定体系可靠度分析。 相似文献
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Ahmad Rastegarnia Abdollah Sohrabibidar Vahid Bagheri Mehdi Razifard Abbas Zolfaghari 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2017,35(4):1299-1310
Seepage through foundation and abutments of a dam can potentially result in a waste of the water stored in dam reservoir, erosion of foundation materials, and development of uplift pressure in dam foundation which, consequently, threatens the long-term stability of the dam. In this study, the grout volume is estimated based on parameters such as joint aperture, the maximum penetration length of the grout, and calculated grout take in Bazoft dam site. Bazoft Dam is a hydroelectric supply and double-curvature arch dam with a height of 211 m located in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province of Iran. The bedrock of Bazoft dam site consists of Asemari Formation (limy marl and marly lime), in the middle and upper parts of left abutment, and Jahrom Formation (limestone and dolomite) in the right abutment, river bed, and lower part of left abutment. The joint apertures were calculated based on the permeability and the joint spacing. Next, the maximum penetration length of the grout and grout volume were calculated. Using a statistical analysis, the relationship of the joint aperture, maximum penetration length, and the calculated grout volume with real grout take was also investigated. The results show that the grout take can be predicted with appropriate accuracy based on the calculated grout volume. 相似文献
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在广义随机空间中直接建立验算点的迭代公式,可以方便地解决含相关随机变量的结构可靠度计算问题。在广义随机空间中推导了一种收敛性较好的验算点迭代公式,并应用于边坡稳定的可靠度分析。针对卡基娃混凝土面板堆石坝地震工况坝坡稳定的可靠度分析表明:(1)由于安全系数法采用的输入参数为确定值,故不能考虑参数随机波动的影响。可靠度分析能够反映参数随机性的影响,这对于深入评估工程安全与抗风险能力是有益的。(2)通过引入条件概率方法考虑地震和坝坡失稳同时发生的概率得到的结构可靠指标将提高,而提高的幅度与地震发生概率的大小有关。(3)堆石非线性强度指标具有正相关性,考虑强度指标的相关性将提高边坡稳定的可靠度。 相似文献
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本文应用改进的BP网络模型定量分析坝基扬压力的影响因子,赋于网络不同的权值来表示网络的输入变量(水位、温度、时效等因子)对网络的输出变量(扬压力)的影响程度,从而确定各影响因子分量对扬压力的影响比例。采用Levenberg Marquardt算法训练网络,网络达到一定的次数后收敛。实例计算结果表明,该模型具有计算精度高、简便实用等特点。因而认为,把神经网络模型应用于探讨诸如环境量对于效应量影响程度的一类问题,具有好的前景。 相似文献
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P. J. Vardon K. Liu M. A. Hicks 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(3):223-240
The determination of slope stability for existing slopes is challenging, partly due to the spatial variability of soils. Reliability-based design can incorporate uncertainties and yield probabilities of slope failure. Field measurements can be utilised to constrain probabilistic analyses, thereby reducing uncertainties and generally reducing the calculated probabilities of failure. A method to utilise pore pressure measurements, to first reduce the spatial uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity, by using inverse analysis linked to the Ensemble Kalman Filter, is presented. Subsequently, the hydraulic conductivity has been utilised to constrain uncertainty in strength parameters, usually leading to an increase in the calculated slope reliability. 相似文献
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将大规模渗流有限元计算与随机响应面法相结合,对双江口心墙堆石坝进行渗透稳定可靠性分析。在基于随机响应面法的可靠度分析框架内,堆石坝稳定渗流有限元计算过程和可靠度分析过程分开独立进行,通过对心墙渗透坡降较大区域的节点建立统一的渗透稳定功能函数,采用渗流有限元分析方法和随机响应面法,计算出该区域每个节点处的渗透破坏失效概率,并将最大失效概率作为心墙的失效概率。最后,分析了心墙渗透系数、覆盖层渗透系数、上游水位与心墙具有最大失效概率节点处渗透坡降的相关关系,以及心墙渗透系数和上游水位的变异性对心墙渗透破坏失效概率的影响。计算结果表明,随机响应面法3阶Hermite展开就能够保证良好的计算精度,且计算耗时较小;双江口堆石坝心墙具有最大失效概率节点处的渗透坡降与上游水位密切相关,而与心墙本身的渗透系数呈弱负相关关系,与覆盖层渗透系数的相关性不显著;随着上游水位变异性的增大,心墙失效概率急剧增大,而这种效应对于心墙渗透系数并不明显。研究成果为随机响应面法在实际工程中的应用奠定了一定的基础。 相似文献
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This paper compares the compression and uplift capacity of a strip foundation from numerical coupled analyses using the Modified Cam Clay (MCC) soil model. The focus is on the failure mechanism and pore pressure development in the soil. Triaxial compression and tension tests were first modelled to develop a rigorous understanding of the pore pressure responses; then, the compression and uplift of a strip foundation were modelled. The results show that the balance of excess pore pressures due to the changes in mean total stress and deviatoric stress during the compression and uplift of a strip foundation are different, although the ultimate undrained capacities are identical. Furthermore, the resistance and excess pore pressure responses during uplift differ from those in compression under the K0-consolidated condition because of the elastic unloading. Although the failure mechanisms have identical shape and size between undrained compression and uplift, the pore pressure distribution in the soil is different and affects the load–displacement behaviours under partially drained compression and uplift. 相似文献