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1.
Based on observational data of thunderstorm and lightening of 76 stations in Shaanxi, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset from 1960 to 2010, the major modes of thunderstorm in warm seasons (May to September) of Shaanxi province and mechanism of its possible influence are studied .The results show that:①the thunderstorms show an obvious decreasing trend in the past 51 years, the average thunderstorm days reaching the peak in July, of which 70% occurred in warm season.②There are two dominant modes: EOF1 mode depicting a thunderstorm phase oscillation between the East and the West of Shaanxi province and EOF2 mode describing negative anomaly oscillation between the North and the middle of Shaanxi province and positive anomaly oscillation between Yan’an area and some areas of Southern Shaanxi province. These two modes account for 53.1% and 13.6% of total variance respectively. ③Analysis with Morlet wavelet method indicates that EOF1 mode has an inter annual changing cycle of 3 to 6 years and EOF2 has an interdecadal change cycle of about 15 years.④The meteorological field regression of EOF1 time coefficient shows the West Pacific subtropical high 584 line is located near 30°N ,the flowing of the southwest warm wet airflow to the north increases and the thunderstorms increase in the west of Shaanxi province; the time coefficient regression of EOF2 shows that the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex is weaker and the pressure over Mongolia area is stronger than usual result in the north wind component’s increasing ,which contributes to the formation EOF2. ⑤The important factors influencing Shaanxi thunderstorm spatial mode EOF1 include the location and the strength of Northwest Pacific subtropical high. In the same way, the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex possibly has a close connection with Shaanxi thunderstorm.  相似文献   

2.
Spatial and temporal trends of dust storms across desert regions of Iran   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Dust storms are among natural and anthropogenic hazards for socioeconomic resources, especially in desert regions. In recent years, dust storms have become a serious problem, especially in desert regions of Iran. This study investigates temporal and spatial variation of dust storm frequency in desert regions of Iran. The number of dusty days (NDD) are collected from 22 stations across the region. The statistical analysis of NDD time series is carried out to show both spatial and seasonal pattern of dust storm occurrence in the region. The regional map of statistical characteristics indicates a north to south increasing dust storm frequency. The spatial map also reveals higher year-to-year variation in south eastern Iran. The seasonality of NDD shows the highest frequency for summer followed by the spring and autumn seasons. The popular Mann–Kendall and the bootstrap MK test to consider serial correlation are then applied for Trend assessment. Results showed both negative (across the north and northwestern regions) and positive trend (across south and south eastern regions) in the annual and seasonal NDD time series. This north-to-south gradient in the spatial and temporal frequency NDD may arise from harsh dry and gusty winds as well as intense land use change in the south eastern territories of Iran. However, more careful and detailed studies are required to connect environmental conditions to change in NDD frequency.  相似文献   

3.
In this study, an attempt has been made to bring out the observational aspects of vertical wind shear in thunderstorms over Minicoy. Case studies of thunderstorm events have been examined to find out the effect of vertical wind shear and instability on strength and longevity of thunderstorms. Role of vertical wind shear in thunderstorms and its mechanism has been explored in this study. Results reveal that for prolonged thunderstorms high and low instability along with moderate to high vertical wind shear (moderate: 0.003 S−1 ≤ vertical wind shear ≤ 0.005 S−1 and high: > 0.005 S−1) play a significant role in longevity and strength of thunderstorms. The mechanism of vertical wind shear in thunderstorms was investigated in a few cases of thunderstorm events where the duration of thunderstorm was covered by the radiosonde/rawin ascent observation taken at Minicoy. Empirical model has been developed to classify thunderstorm type and to determine the strength and longevity of thunderstorms. Model validation has been carried out for selected cases. Model could classify thunderstorm type for most of the cases of thunderstorm events over island and coastal stations.  相似文献   

4.
In this research, the frequency of dust storms was prepared at 87 synoptic stations for the period of 1987–2013. These data were classified by means of Fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm. Satellite images of MODIS and brightness temperature index were also used for detection and tracking dust storm of 30 Jun 4 July 2008. The results indicated that Iran is classified in five clusters by the dust-storm-frequencies from which, cluster 5 is reclassified in three clusters because of its wide range. The maximum number of days with dust storms was observed in cluster 1 that includes only Zabol station with the frequency of 790 days with the duration 1987–2013. The minimum number of days with dust storms was observed in cluster 5-3 that includes the stations located in portions of North, Northwest, Northeast Iran and the higher elevations of the Zagros in western Iran. A case study about a severe dust storm in Iran using satellite images indicate that brightness temperature index (BTI) is a desired index for detection and monitoring of dust storms. The source of the investigated dust storms is Iraq and South of the Arabian Peninsula that had influenced the western half of Iran in several days. The frequency of dust storms increased markedly in the west, southwest of Iran and Persian Gulf around as main receptors from emerging dusty areas but it increased slightly in the eastern half of Iran.  相似文献   

5.
中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征   总被引：26，自引：0，他引：26       下载免费PDF全文
使用1951-2004年中国738个测站逐日降水资料,采用百分位的方法定义极端降水事件的阈值,分析了不同持续时间的极端降水事件的时空分布及变化趋势特征。结果表明,极端降水事件多发于35°N以南,特别是在长江中下游和江南地区以及高原东南部,且在这些地区极端降水事件持续时间也较长。季节分布上,主要出现在夏季,以低持续性事件为主。在中国东部地区,持续时间越长的极端降水其强度往往越强。趋势分析表明,全国持续1d极端事件的相对频数具有上升趋势而平均强度具有下降趋势,其空间上均表现为全国大部分上升、华北和西南等地下降的趋势。持续2d以上极端事件在长江中下游流域、江南地区和高原东部等地区有显著增多和增强的趋势,而在华北和西南地区有减少和减弱趋势,但全国平均的趋势不显著。  相似文献   

6.
The present work deals with pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar belonging to the state of Orissa, India. A Markovian approach has been adopted to discern the probabilistic behavior of the time series of the occurrence and non-occurrence of this hazardous weather event by introducing a dichotomy within the time series. After a painstaking analysis through chi-square tests, we have identified serial independence in a few years and first-order two-state Markovian dependence in a few years (2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006). Finally, for the years of first-order two-state Markovian dependence, it has been observed that the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of thunderstorm gets higher if the state of the previous day is similar to that of the current day. Furthermore, the probability of getting non-thunderstorm day followed by non-thunderstorm day is higher than the probability of getting thunderstorm day followed by thunderstorm day. It has been also observed that the unconditional climatological probability of the occurrence of severe pre-monsoon thunderstorm implied by the Markov chain is closely in agreement with the observed relative frequencies. However, it could be revealed that Markov chain cannot, in general, be suggested as a predictive tool for pre-monsoon thunderstorms under study without investigating the serial dependence inherent in the time series.  相似文献   

7.
Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.  相似文献   

8.
The North Qazvin region is a part of the Central Alborz Mountains in Iran and has experienced destructive earthquakes. This region is a popular and industrial zone near Tehran, capital of Iran. To identify the highest and lowest seismic hazard location and consequently the seismic zonation of this region, different parameters, such as topography, geology, tectonics and seismicity, have been focused. Accordingly, the north of Qazvin region can be divided into three subzones: western, eastern and southern. Seismic activity of the western zone is higher than the other ones and seismic potential of the eastern zone is higher than the other two zones. This zoning is also necessary for all seismic active areas to find the most dangerous zone.  相似文献   

9.
Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing 20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the monsoon months and the season as a whole.  相似文献   

10.
徐义刚 《地球科学》2006,31(1):14-22
通过对比华北太行山重力梯度带两侧新生代玄武岩及其中幔源包体的成分, 发现: (1)华北东、西部新生代玄武岩具有相反的演化趋势, 说明新生代以来西部岩石圈逐渐减薄, 而东部岩石圈逐渐加厚; (2)西部岩石圈地幔组成相对复杂, 年龄多为晚太古代-元古代; 而东部岩石圈地幔组成相对单一, 年龄多为现代值, 少数为元古代; (3)西部壳幔过渡带较厚而东部较薄, 反映两地不同的岩浆底侵作用程度.华北岩石圈组成的空间不均一性可能与岩石圈减薄过程的时空差异有关. 岩相古地理分析说明太行山重力梯度带的雏形形成于早白垩世, 与华北中生代岩浆活动的高峰相吻合.由于岩浆作用与岩石圈减薄作用密切相关, 因此认为华北岩石圈减薄的时空不均一性是形成太行山重力梯度带的重要机制.   相似文献   

11.
Rainfalls with short persistency are the tangible characteristics of arid and semiarid regions such as Iran. Iran is an arid and semiarid region with dramatic tempo-spatial changes of rainfall. In this regard, the short persistency of rainfall is approximately observed from 1 to 7 days in whole parts, while the greater ones are only separated in eastern parts of Iran. According to the results, the rainfall persistency is ranged from 1 to 45 days, but the maximum amount and rainy days are generated by rainfalls with short persistency. So, the rainfall events with long persistency are considered as an extreme event with extreme variability. One-day precipitations generate the maximum rainy days and rainfall amounts, especially in eastern parts of Iran. Decrease in the one-day precipitations contribution to eastern parts may indicate to decrease in regional precipitation. However, decrease in contribution in western parts may indicate to increased amounts of rainfall at other persistency rates. Our results revealed that the contribution of the one-day precipitation to general rainfall has reductive trends in almost 17.5 % of the whole Iran. The most integrated and significant reductive trend of one-day precipitation contribution to rainfall spreads northeastern and eastern parts of Iran. However, in the western parts of Iran, decreasing one-day precipitation contribution to rainy days affects to increase in the diurnal rainfall. The mentioned variability can be considered as the climate change signals in respect of one-day precipitation.  相似文献   

12.
Chaudhuri  S.  Khan  F.  Das  D.  Mondal  P.  Dey  S. 《Natural Hazards》2020,102(3):1571-1588

Thunderstorm overshooting is rare but not an unusual phenomenon in a metropolitan of India, Kolkata (22.57° N; 88.36° E) during the pre-monsoon months (April–May). An attempt is made in this study to identify the important parameters differentiating the thunderstorms in overshooting and non-overshooting categories through data analytics from 2000 to 2015. The present investigation on parametric classification would facilitate in estimating the predictability of thunderstorms with overshooting which subsequently might assist in operational forecast of thunderstorm severity over Kolkata. The altitudes of lifting condensation level (LCL), wind shear, bulk Richardson number (BRN), gust speed, boundary layer characteristics and their correlation with thunderstorm cloud top height (CTH) and also their variation and distribution during overshooting (OTS) and non-overshooting (TS) thunderstorms are analyzed in this study. The result depicts that over Kolkata the intensity of storms during OTS is higher than during TS though the frequency of OTS is less than that of TS. The results further show that the potential temperature (θ), equivalent potential temperature (θe), mixing ratio (es) in the boundary layer, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, BRN and gust speed play significant roles in regulating the CTH during OTS and TS thunderstorms over Kolkata.

  相似文献   

13.
内容提要：为了更好地理解中国东北及邻区白垩纪各块体的旋转运动模式及其运动量,本文根据最新的地层学进展分早白垩世中期、早白垩世晚期与晚白垩世三个阶段对该区古地磁数据进行了精细分析。通过与华北-华南地块（不包括朝鲜半岛、辽东及胶东半岛）相应时期的古地磁极对比,说明朝鲜半岛及辽东早白垩世中、晚期相对华北-华南地块分别顺时针旋转约11º,晚白垩世以来没有明显的旋转运动。辽西地区则出现了小幅度的逆时针旋转运动。以上旋转运动与太平洋板块俯冲引起的中国东北及邻区强烈岩石圈减薄和伸展作用具有密切联系。  相似文献   

14.
Saudi Arabia is characterized as largely aseismic; however, the tectonic plate boundaries that surround it are very active. To improve characterization of seismicity and ground motion hazard, the Saudi Arabian Digital Seismic Network (SANDSN) was installed in 1998 and continues to be operated by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) and King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST). This article describes research performed to improve seismic hazard parameters using earthquake location and magnitude calibration of the high-quality SANDSN data. The SANDSN consists of 38 seismic stations, 27 broadband, and 11 short period. All data are telemetered in real time to a central facility at KACST in Riyadh. The SANDSN stations show low background noise levels and have good signal detection capabilities; however, some stations show cultural noise at frequencies above 1.0 Hz. We assessed the SANDSN event location capabilities by comparing KACST locations with well-determined locations derived from ground truth or global observations. While a clear location bias exists when using the global average iasp91 earth model, the locations can be improved by using regional models optimized for different tectonic source regions. The article presents detailed analysis of some events and Dead Sea explosions where we found gross errors in estimated locations. New velocity models we calculated that should improve estimated locations of regional events in three specific regions include (1) Gulf of Aqabah—Dead Sea region, (2) Arabian Shield, and (3) Arabian Platform. Recently, these models were applied to the SANDSN to improve local and teleseismic event locations and to develop an accurate magnitude scale for Saudi Arabia. The Zagros Thrust presents the most seismic hazard to eastern Saudi Arabia because of the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Although these events are 200 km or further from the Arabian coast, wave propagation through sedimentary structure of the Gulf causes long-duration ground motions for periods between 3 and 10 s. Such ground motions could excite response in large engineered structures (e.g., tall buildings and long bridges) such as was experienced after the November 22, 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake off the southern coast of Iran.  相似文献   

15.
Active fault zones of Armenia, SE Turkey and NW Iran present a diverse set of interrelated natural hazards. Three regional case studies in this cross-border zone are examined to show how earthquakes interact with other hazards to increase the risk of natural disaster. In northern Armenia, a combination of several natural and man-made phenomena (earthquakes, landslides and unstable dams with toxic wastes) along the Pambak-Sevan-Sunik fault (PSSF) zone lowers from 0.4 to 0.2–0.3g the maximum permissible level (MPL) of seismic hazard that may induce disastrous destruction and loss of life in the adjacent Vanadzor depression.

In the Ararat depression, a large active fault-bounded pull-apart basin at the junction of borders of Armenia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, an earthquake in 1840 was accompanied by an eruption of Ararat Volcano, lahars, landslides, floods, soil subsidence and liquefaction. The case study demonstrates that natural hazards that are secondary with respect to earthquakes may considerably increase the damage and the casualties and increase the risk associated with the seismic impact.

The North Tabriz–Gailatu fault system poses a high seismic hazard to the border areas of NW Iran, eastern Turkey, Nakhichevan (Azerbaijan) and southern Armenia. Right-lateral strike–slip motions along the North Tabriz fault have given rise to strong earthquakes, which threaten the city of Tabriz with its population of 1.2 million.

The examples illustrate how the concentration of natural hazards in active fault zones increases the risk associated with strong earthquakes in Armenia, eastern Turkey and NW Iran. This generally occurs across the junctions of international borders. Hence, the transboundary character of active faults requires transboundary cooperation in the study and mitigation of the natural risk.  相似文献   


16.
Though the East African monsoons may be considered as mere extensions of the South Asian monsoonal system, they possess a number of characteristics which make them unique amongst the world's monsoons. The most important of these is the relative dryness of both the North and the South monsoon, caused by a prevalent low-level divergence over eastern Africa. Most rainfall in the region therefore occurs during the intermediate seasons between the monsoons, when this divergence is temporarily replaced by more convergent flow patterns. As a result, total rainfall in East Africa is relatively low. Over most of the region it is strongly concentrated during two short seasons and it is highly variable from year to year, both in total amount and in time of occurrence.As in most parts of the tropics, rainfall is the main limiting factor in agricultural production in East Africa. The relations between rainfall and agriculture can be illustrated by the usual water balances, but an alternative method, employing the Agricultural Rainfall Indicator, is more useful for planning purposes. Drought frequencies, based on a simple relation between actual and average rainfall, also represent the effects of the monsoons on East African agriculture very clearly.  相似文献   

17.
The pre-monsoon convective atmosphere over Kolkata (22.52°N, 88.37°E) during STORM field phase 2006–2008 is investigated using 12 UTC radiosonde data and thermodynamic indices. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the skill of various indices and parameters and to propose suitable threshold values in forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorm activity at Kolkata. The thermodynamic indices and parameters used in the present study are lifted index (LI), K index (KI), severe weather threat index (SWEAT), total totals index (TTI), convective available potential energy (CAPE), deep convection index (DCI), humidity index (HI), Boyden index (BI), dew point temperature at 850 hpa (DEW), relative humidity at 700 hpa (RH), and bulk Richardson number (BRN). Validation of the suggested threshold values of indices was conducted on the days of thunderstorm activity. It was found that one index alone cannot predict the occurrence of thunderstorm over Kolkata region. The present study suggests that the indices with highest skill for thunderstorm prediction are KI, DCI, SWEAT, DEW, HI, RH, LI, TTI, while the prediction efficiency is poor for CAPE, BRN, and BI. Observed values of these indices also reveal that scattered, multi-cellular thunderstorms are possible over Kolkata during pre-monsoon months.  相似文献   

18.
青藏高原春季土壤湿度与中国东部夏季降水之间的关系   总被引：11，自引：6，他引：5  
应用SVD方法分析了青藏高原地区春季土壤湿度异常和中国东部地区夏季降水之间的关系.结果表明,青藏高原不同地区、不同深度的土壤湿度与中国东部夏季降水的相关特征不同.青藏高原东北部和西北部0~10cm深度(表层)土壤湿度与中国华北、东北地区的夏季降水为正相关,而与华南地区为负相关;青藏高原中部及南部0~10cm表层土壤湿度与华北地区夏季的降水有较强负相关;青藏高原北部及东部10~200cm深度(深层)土壤湿度与华北、东北地区的夏季降水为负相关,而与华南地区夏季降水为正相关;青藏高原中东部10~200cm深层土壤湿度与长江中下游和华南大部分地区夏季降水呈负相关关系.即青藏高原不同地区、不同深度层春季土壤湿度的变化,对中国东部地区的夏季降水具有显著影响.  相似文献   

19.
In this work, we analyze the various natural and man-made hazards that may affect the Cayman Islands and determine the level of exposure of Grand Cayman to these events. The magnitude, frequency, and probability of occurrence of the natural and man-made hazards that may potentially affect the islands are identified and ranked. The more important natural hazard to which the Cayman Islands are exposed is clearly hurricanes. To a lesser degree, the islands may be occasionally exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis. Explosions or leaks of the Airport Texaco Fuel Depot and the fuel pipeline at Grand Cayman are the most significant man-made hazards. The results of the hazard evaluation indicate that there are four areas in Grand Cayman with various levels of exposure to natural and man-made hazards: The North Sound, Little Sound, and Eastern West Bay (Area 1) show a very high level of exposure; The Central Mangroves, Central Bodden Town, Central George Town, and the West Bay (Area 2) have high level of exposure; The Northwestern West Bay, Western Georgetown-Bodden Town, and East End-North Side (Area 3) are under moderate levels of exposure. The remainder of the island shows low exposure (Area 4).  相似文献   

20.
S. Chaudhuri  A. Middey 《Atmósfera》2013,26(1):125-144
Studying the boundary layer is imperative because severe weather in this portion of the atmosphere impacts on environment and various facets of national activities and affects the socioeconomic scenario of a region. Near surface boundary layer characteristics are investigated through the vertical variation of fluxes of heat, moisture, momentum, kinetic energy and Richardson number during the pre-monsoon season (April-May) at Kharagpur (22° 30’ N, 87° 20’ E) and Ranchi (23° 32’ N, 85° 32’ E) with 50 and 32 m tower data, respectively, on thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. The temporal variation of fluxes within the boundary layer and the kinetic energy at different logarithmic heights are observed to vary significantly between thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. The heat and momentum fluxes show a maximum peak while the moisture flux shows a sudden attenuation just before the occurrence of thunderstorms. The wind field depicts to play a crucial role at the inland station Kharagpur, which is in the proximity of the Bay of Bengal, compared to the station Ranchi, situated over hilly terrain on Chotanagpur. The micrometeorological study of the boundary layer reveals a significant finding pertaining to observe the passage of thunderstorms. It is observed that the ratio of the potential temperature (θ) and equivalent potential temperature (θe) remains confined within a critical range between 0.85 and 0.90 during the passage of thunderstorms.  相似文献   

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