A neurocomputing approach to the forecasting of monthly maximum temperature over Kolkata, India using total ozone concentration as predictor     

Syam Sundar De  Goutami Chattopadhyay  Bijoy Bandyopadhyay  Suman Paul 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2011,343(10):664-676

The association between the monthly total ozone concentration and monthly maximum temperature over Kolkata (22.56° N, 88.30° E), India, has been explored in this paper. For this, the predictability of monthly maximum temperature based on the total ozone as predictor is investigated using Artificial Neural Network. The presence of persistence and similar cyclic patterns are revealed through autocorrelation and cross-correlation coefficients. Common cycles of length 12 and 6 have been identified through periodogram. Hence, a predictive model has been generated by Artificial Neural Network in the form of Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) using scaled conjugate gradient learning with sigmoid non-linearity. After training and testing the network, an MLP with total ozone of month n as predictor and maximum temperature of month (n + 1) as the target output is found as the best model. Performance of the model has been judged statistically. Finally, the MLP model has been compared with linear and non-linear regressions and the efficiency of MLP has been established over the regression models.  相似文献   

Magnetoelastic shear wave propagation in pre-stressed anisotropic media under gravity     

Nirmala Kumari  Amares Chattopadhyay  Abhishek K. Singh  Sanjeev A. Sahu 《Acta Geophysica》2017,65(1):189-205

The present study investigates the propagation of shear wave (horizontally polarized) in two initially stressed heterogeneous anisotropic (magnetoelastic transversely isotropic) layers in the crust overlying a transversely isotropic gravitating semi-infinite medium. Heterogeneities in both the anisotropic layers are caused due to exponential variation (case-I) and linear variation (case-II) in the elastic constants with respect to the space variable pointing positively downwards. The dispersion relations have been established in closed form using Whittaker’s asymptotic expansion and were found to be in the well-agreement to the classical Love wave equations. The substantial effects of magnetoelastic coupling parameters, heterogeneity parameters, horizontal compressive initial stresses, Biot’s gravity parameter, and wave number on the phase velocity of shear waves have been computed and depicted by means of a graph. As a special case, dispersion equations have been deduced when the two layers and half-space are isotropic and homogeneous. The comparative study for both cases of heterogeneity of the layers has been performed and also depicted by means of graphical illustrations.  相似文献   

Assessment of the biological quality of riverine water using pathogenicity islands (PAIs) of coliform bacteria as pollution indicator     

Shalini Srivastava  Hirak R. Dash  Surajit Das 《Water Resources》2017,44(1):150-157

The biological methods of quality assessment of water include the determination of harmful biological entities. In this study, quality of water from two riverine study sites was monitored in terms of the most probable number (MPN index) and pathogenicity. MPN index was found to be 0.11 and 0.15/100 mL which was also confirmed by membrane filtration technique (MFT). The isolated pure cultures were subjected to various pathogenicity tests including blood haemolysis and biofilm formation. Out of ten isolates, six showed positive results and these potentially pathogenic isolates were found to be resistant to various antibiotics like erythromycin (E), vancomycin (VA), chloramphenicol (C), tetracyclin (TE), acidoclav (AC) and kanamycin (K). Genetic analysis of these six isolates confirms the presence of flanking regions of virulence cassettes pathogenicity island (PAI) in their genome. Hence, in addition to the MPN test, the pathogenicity tests using the amplification of flanking regions of PAI can be used as a marker for determination of biological quality of water.  相似文献   

New holographic dark energy in modified f(R) Horava-Lifshitz gravity     

Abdul Jawad  Surajit Chattopadhyay 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,353(1):293-299

In this paper, we study the new holographic dark energy model in the framework of modified f(R) Horava-Lifshitz Gravity. We apply correspondence scheme to construct model the in underlying scenario using power-law form of scale factor. To explore accelerated expansion of the universe, some well-known cosmological parameters (equation of state parameter and squared speed of sound) and cosmological planes (ω _Λ – \(\omega'_{\varLambda}\) and statefinder) are discussed for reconstructed model. It is interesting to conclude that these parameters represent phantom behavior of the universe with stable configuration. also, the cosmological planes show compatible results with recent observations for accelerated expansion of the universe.  相似文献   

Density dependent B parameter of relativistic stars with anisotropy in pseudo-spheroidal space-time     

P. K. Chattopadhyay  B. C. Paul 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2016,361(4):145

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Role of initial error growth in the extended range prediction skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)     

Lekshmi  S  Chattopadhyay  Rajib  Kaur  Manpreet  Joseph  Susmitha  Phani  R.  Dey  A.  Mandal  R.  Sahai  A. K. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):205-215

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In the seamless forecast paradigm, it is hypothesized that the reduction in initial error in the dynamical model forecast would help to reduce forecast error...  相似文献   

Identification of trends in rainfall,rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India     

Deepak Jhajharia  Brijesh K. Yadav  Sunil Maske  Surajit Chattopadhyay  Anil K. Kar 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2012,344(1):1-13

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.  相似文献   

Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Abhilash  A. K. Sahai  N. Borah  R. Chattopadhyay  S. Joseph  S. Sharmila  S. De  B. N. Goswami  Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2801-2815

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.  相似文献   

Correspondence between f(G) gravity and holographic dark energy via power-law solution     

Abdul Jawad  Antonio Pasqua  Surajit Chattopadhyay 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2013,344(2):489-494

In this paper, we discuss cosmological application of holographic Dark Energy (HDE) in the framework of f(G) modified gravity. For this purpose, we construct f(G) model with the inclusion of HDE and a well-known power law form of the scale factor a(t). The reconstructed f(G) is found to satisfy a sufficient condition for a realistic modified gravity model. We find quintessence behavior of effective equation of state (EoS) parameter ω _DE through energy conditions in this context. Moreover, we observe that the squared speed of sound $v_{s}^{2}$ remains negative, which indicates the instability of HDE f(G) model.  相似文献   

A holographic reconstruction of the modified f(R) Horava-Lifshitz gravity with scale factor in power-law form     

Abdul Jawad  Surajit Chattopadhyay  Antonio Pasqua 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2013,346(1):273-278

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