共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 78 毫秒
1.
运用梅江中上游河段两个国家气象站和两个水文站的时间序列数据,应用累积滤波器、Kendall的秩次相关和小波分析等方法对该河段气象水文要素的长期变化趋势及周期性进行了分析。结果显示:1梅江中上游河段降水量、径流量呈不同程度的减少趋势,而气温则表现出较明显的上升趋势,其中两个水文站径流量的减少趋势和气温的增加趋势十分显著,均通过了置信度为95%的显著性检验;2该河段气温、降水、径流序列周期变化不一,年均气温只有28a的主周期,年降水变化的主周期依次为28a、12a、7a和4a,尖山站和水口站径流量变化的主周期很接近,尖山站依次为28a、20a、12a、8a和5a,水口站依次为29a、20a、12a、9a和5a;3另一方面,在河段气温上升、降水量几乎保持不变的情况下,两个水文站的径流量明显减少,这是人类活动所致还是气候变化的影响,还有待进一步研究。 相似文献
2.
为了更好的指导巩乃斯河流域水资源的开发利用,对其水文气象变化规律的研究有至关重要的作用。本文借助1972～2015年逐年平均气温、降水资料,运用滑动平均法、M-K(Mann-Kendall)检验法和小波分析法,对巩乃斯河流域气温与降水序列的演变趋势、突变情况和周期性变化特征进行分析研究。结果表明:(1)基于M-K检验法,分析各序列的演变趋势,发现巩乃斯河流域年平均气温与年降水量总体都有显著的增加趋势,其中年平均气温与降水的变化倾向率分别为0.65℃/10a与17.2 mm/10a,突变时间点分别表现在1991年与1982年上;(2)基于小波分析法,分析各序列的周期变换特性,发现研究区未来的年平均气温整体呈上升趋势,降雨量呈减少趋势,其中年平均气温序列的变化第一、二主周期表现在22年与29年的时间尺度上;年平均降水量则在时间尺度为27年与8年上出现变化的第一、二主周期。 相似文献
3.
基于1968~2012年常德站降水量及平均气温资料,采用一元线性回归、九点二次平滑、MannKendall检验、Yamamoto法、Morlet小波分析研究了常德市降水量和气温序列的趋势、突变、周期特征,运用R/S分析法计算得Hurst指数预测了两者未来的变化趋势。结果表明,近45年常德市年降水量呈略微上升趋势,未发生突变,降水序列存在6a、15a和28a三个周期,在未来年降水量有增加趋势;近45年常德市年平均气温呈明显升高趋势(显著性水平α=0.01),在1994年发生突变,气温序列存在28a的主周期,在未来年平均气温有升高趋势。 相似文献
4.
近40年来新疆策勒绿洲气候变化特征分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用策勒县气象站1961～2000年气温和降水观测资料,以回归分析、趋势线分析、5年滑动平均等方法分析了位于昆仑山北麓的策勒绿洲近40年来气温和降水的年际变化、季节变化及变化特征.分析结果显示:(1)近40年来策勒绿洲年均气温总体呈增加趋势,年均气温线性倾向率为0.27℃/10a.从20世纪60年代,气温在平均值附近波动降低,自70年代以来波动较大,并明显升高.气温波动基本上与我国西北地区气温变化趋势一致.年内气温变化存在季节差异,夏、秋和冬三个季节气温均呈上升趋势,春季的气温呈下降趋势,其中冬、秋两季对全年平均气温增加贡献较大.(2)近40年来策勒绿洲年降水量总体呈减少趋势.年均降水量线性倾向率约为-0.63mm/10a,结果与我国西北地区气候由暖干向暖湿转变的趋势相反.20世纪60年代年降水在多年平均值附近波动.增减不明显,自70至80年代渡动较大,先减后增,到90年代低水平波动,变干趋势明显.年内降水量变化有明显的季节差异,除了夏季外,春、秋、冬三个季节降水均呈减少趋势,减少幅度从大到小依次为冬季、秋季和春季. 相似文献
5.
应用博尔塔拉河上游温泉水文站和温泉气象站1961-2012年的观测资料,分析博尔塔拉河上游气温和降水的变化特征以及径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明：近50a来,博尔塔拉河上游区出现了气温升高、降水量增加的暖湿化气候变化趋势。其中,在夏、秋、冬季升温明显,夏、冬季增湿明显;对气温与降水序列进行统计检验,得出该地区气温、降水增加的趋势显著,气温的增加趋势大于降水;通过研究发现,气温是影响博尔塔拉河出山径流量的主要因子,尤其是夏季平均气温与年径流量的相关系数最大,为0.71;夏季降水量与年径流量相关系数为0.52。利用夏季平均气温、夏季降水量建立多元线性回归模型,相关系数为R=0.78。说明温泉气象站的夏季温度上升、降水量增加,博尔塔拉河的径流量就会增加;由于气候暖湿变化效应,大气降水和来水量的增加,使这一地区的荒漠植被得到了一定的恢复,在一定程度上减少了风沙天气,湖区的生态环境已有明显改善。 相似文献
6.
PRECIS模式对宁夏气候变化情景的模拟分析* 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
使用英国Hadley气候中心区域气候模式PRECIS,分析了B2温室气体排放情景下,相对于气候基准时段1961~1990年宁夏2071~2100年(2080s)地面气温、降水量等的变化。结果表明:PRECIS模式能够很好地模拟宁夏气温的分布特征,对夏季最高气温的模拟效果好于冬季最低气温;较好地模拟出了宁夏降水南多北少的空间差异特征,且对夏季降水的模拟能力明显强于年均降水和冬季降水。相对于气候基准时段, 在B2情景下,2080s宁夏年平均、冬季和夏季平均气温均明显上升,宁夏北部和南部的部分地区气温上升幅度最大,夏季平均气温和最高气温上升幅度大于冬季平均气温和最低气温;未来宁夏年、冬季和夏季平均降水较基准时段均有所增加,但降水随年代际却呈减少趋势,由于气温和降水的气候变率加大,2080s宁夏出现高温、干旱、洪涝等异常天气事件的可能性增大。 相似文献
7.
青藏高原河源区气候变化特征分析 总被引：19，自引：8，他引：11
利用1954-2007年青藏高原河源区(包括长江、黄河、澜沧江、怒江和雅鲁藏布江)30个气象站的年平均气温和降水量,通过计算气候倾向率和距平小波分析(墨西哥帽小波函数)等方法分析了近54 a来青藏高原河源区的气候变化特征.结果表明:青藏高原河源区年平均气温变化在7~-3℃之间,由东南向西北逐渐减少;并呈现逐年上升的趋势,自20世纪90年代以来升温更为强烈.年降水量的分布大致是由东南向西北逐步减少,在同一纬度上,东部的降水量多于西部,2001-2005年的多年平均降水量达到历史最大值.年平均气温和降水的周期振荡在高频区振荡频繁,有多个突变点,中低频区则较平缓.不同河源区的气温增温率具有显著的区域性差异,雅鲁藏布江源区最大(0.54℃.(10a)-1),黄河次之(0.31℃.(10a)-1),澜沧江和怒江最小(0.17℃.(10a)-1).除少数气象站外,区域内各站的年平均气温也普遍升高.澜沧江源区是整个青藏高原河源区降水量升幅最大的地区,而雅鲁藏布江源区为降水量升幅最小的区域.从整个青藏高原来看,温度和降水均普遍升高,整个区域呈现暖湿化趋势,但降水量的增加较微弱. 相似文献
8.
近30a来天山西部积雪与气候变化--以天山积雪雪崩研究站为例 总被引：13，自引：5，他引：13
利用位于天山西部的中国科学院天山积雪与雪崩研究站1967-2000年近33 a来的观测记录, 检验了天山西部中山带季节性积雪、冬季降水、冬季平均气温的变化趋势. 结果表明: 季节性积雪的长期变化呈增加趋势, 近33 a来年平均增加1.43%; 冬季气温和降水的变化趋势也是增加的, 其中冬季降水每年平均增加0.12%, 而冬季气温近30 a来升高了0.8 ℃. 对气温时间序列的一次线性倾向估计的倾向值为0.02, 气温变化表现出稳定的升温趋势, 最大熵谱分析表明气温的变化存在2.1 a、 3.6 a、 10.7 a的变化周期. 对多年气温季节的变化研究表明, 升温的季节主要是冬季, 而夏季升温不明显;最大熵谱分析表明降水变化存在2.1 a、 6.4 a、 10.7 a的周期变化, 降水量的变化没有表现出很强的趋势性特点;逐年最大积雪深度在波动中成逐年增加的趋势, 积雪日数和最大积雪深度之间密切相关, 33 a来的积雪日数是增加的. 通过对相关因子和影响因子分析表明, 季节性积雪与冬季气温之间存在着弱的负相关关系, 与冬季降水呈显著的正相关关系. 相似文献
9.
40a来江河源区的气候变化特征及其生态环境效应 总被引：68，自引：19，他引：68
通过江河源区分布的5个气象台站有关气温与降水的多年数据，分析了近40a来江河源区的气候变化特征，结果表明，近40a来江河源区气候变化的总趋势是气温升高，降水量增加，但降水量的增加主要体现在春季降水和近15a来冬季降水的明显增加上，对植被生长起重要作用的夏季降水量却呈明显减少趋势；江河源区20世纪80年代10a平均气温比50年代高0.12～0.9℃，大部分地区高于0.3℃，属于青藏高原高温区或升温幅度最大的地区之一，平均升温0.44℃，明显比全国平均升温0.2℃要高出一倍，在这种背景下，与植被生长关系密切的4、5月和9月气温呈现持续下降态势，江河源区脆弱的生态环境体系对气候的这种变化响应强烈，冰川退缩，多年冻土消融加剧，导致大范围高寒草甸与草原被植退化。 相似文献
10.
阿拉善高原处于季风边缘区,生态环境极其脆弱,对气候干湿变化的响应极为敏感。利用近60a的逐月气温和降水量资料,采用非参数Mann-Kendall和Mann-whitney阶段性转换检验方法,分析了其变化趋势。结果表明,研究区气温在1988年前后发生突变,在该跃点后的19882010年的平均气温比19551987年要高1℃以上,有明显的增温趋势。而年降水量则无明显的增加趋势,尽管部分站点在1991年前后有微弱的增加迹象,但是区域尺度的降水突变还不存在,气候仍以暖干化为主,暂不能得出气候向暖湿转变的结论。 相似文献
11.
A piston core from the southern Blake Basin penetrated nine distinct bioclastic carbonate turbidites separated by pelagic terrigenous clay units. X-ray diffraction analysis of the carbonate mineralogy of the graded, laminated, and homogenous units of the individual turbidite units indicated a general loss of unstable carbonates in the homogenous unit beyond that contained in the lower two units. Univariate and multivariate statistical tests were employed to determine the significance of the changes and to determine if different units of a turbidite sequence could be consistently grouped by statistical methods. Principal components, discriminant function, and cluster analysis were used in the multivariate tests. The graded and laminated units were closely related in mineralogy with little significant differences. The mineralogy of the homogenous units was significantly different than that of the other two units except in one example. Cluster analysis generated five groupings of the samples with the end members consisting of graded and laminated units at one end and homogenous units at the other. 相似文献
12.
两种煤质分析指标的关联方程组研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
在综合分析大量文献资料的基础上，采用多元线性回归方法，利用MATLAB对大量煤质分析结果进行了回归分析，推导出了煤质元素分析与工业分析的关联方程组。新方法实现了由工业分析结果求元素分析成分的目的，具有重大的实用意义。 相似文献
13.
Ulf Grenander 《Mathematical Geology》1975,7(3):267-278
A deformation mechanism is described and analyzed. It is intended for height patterns exposed to erosion and tectonic activity.
A simulation experiment is carried out for this model. Closedform expressions are derived for the covariance field, the properties
of spectral estimates, and for the optimal retrospective reconstruction of earlier, unknown height patterns. For obvious reasons
the author is in no position to make claims about the verisimilitude of the model. It is offered as an example of a potential
application to geology of the theory of patterns developed by the author and his coworkers in recent years. It is hoped that
those more qualified than the author in the subject matter area can extend and modify the analysis to make it closer to geological
reality.
supported by NSF grant GJ-3100X. 相似文献
14.
Space spectral analysis of zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind and time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves at 850 hPa during monsoon 1991 (1st June
1991 to 31st August 1991) for the global belt between equator and 40°N are investigated. Space spectral analysis shows that
long waves (wavenumbers 1 and 2) dominate the energetics of Region 1 (equator to 20°N) while over Region 2 (20°N to 40°N)
the kinetic energy of short waves (wavenumbers 3 to 10) is more than kinetic energy of long waves. It has been found that
kinetic energy of long waves is dominated by zonal component while both (zonal and meridional) the components of wind have
almost equal contribution in the kinetic energy of short waves.
Temporal variations of kinetic energy of wavenumber 2 over Region 1 and Region 2 are almost identical. The correlation matrix
of different time series shows that (i) wavenumber 2 over Regions 1 and 2 might have the same energy source and (ii) there
is a possibility of an exchange of kinetic energy between wavenumber 1 over Region 1 and short waves over Region 2. Wave to
wave interactions indicate that short waves over Region 2 are the common source of kinetic energy to wavenumber 2 over Regions
1 and 2 and wavenumber 1 over Region 1. Time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves indicates that wavenumber
1 is dominated by 30–45 day and bi-weekly oscillations while short waves are dominated by weekly and bi-weekly oscillations.
The correlation matrix, wave to wave interaction and time spectral analysis together suggest that short period oscillations
of kinetic energy of wavenumber 1 might be one of the factors causing dominant weekly (5–9 day) and bi-weekly (10–18 day)
oscillations in the kinetic energy of short waves. 相似文献
15.
Paul F. Czeglédy 《Mathematical Geology》1972,4(4):291-305
On the basis of samples taken from a known topographic surface, the parameters of two types of linear models are estimated. The first category is defined by polynomials or trigonometric functions, whose parameters are simultaneously computed from available data. In the second category a set of local centers is defined, and in the neighborhood of each center a fixed-degree polynomial is developed. An approximative resemblance index is calculated, and contour maps corresponding to various models are compared with the topographic map. It is found that with an increasing number of grid points, maps of local polynomials are converging both in continuity and in resemblance. For a sufficient number of grid points, this resemblance is always higher than those produced by models of the first category. 相似文献
16.
Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(1):53-65
In this paper, we report on the use of Bayesian networks, BNs, learnt from data generated by physical and numerical models, to overcome to a certain degree a number of complications in traditional slope stability analyses that jointly consider the mechanical and hydraulic properties of soils. Discrete Bayesian networks resulted to be useful and efficient to acquire knowledge from simulated data and to identify significant factors by the combined use of backward inference and global sensitivity analysis. Further, BNs enable decision thresholds to be estimated quickly. Along with this, backward inference and global sensitivity analysis are performed in BNs at low computation costs. Moreover, under conditions in which knowledge is scarce, we show how a practitioner can be better informed using the proposed approach. All these previously under-reported modelling features in the specialised literature encourage the further application of the proposed approach to enhance slope stability analysis. 相似文献
17.
Compositional Data Analysis of Some Alkaline Glasses 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The approach to the analysis of compositional data involving log-ratio transformation of the data has not been generally adopted by researchers wishing to analyse such data. In the context of exploratory methods of multivariate analysis, such as principal components analysis, where the hope is to identify (cluster) structure in the data, this may be because traditional methods can produce more interpretable results than the log-ratio approach. After illustrating this with an example, circumstances under which the log-ratio approach performs poorly when traditional approaches work well are identified. Log-ratio analysis can be dominated by variables having low absolute presence and high relative variation that do not contribute to, and can obscure, structure in the data. Traditional methods can detect certain kinds of structure in the data that correspond to structure on a ratio scale, after a suitable redefinition of the composition. Since traditional methods often detect such structure more directly than log-ratio analysis it can be concluded that claims that the traditional analysis is inappropriate or meaningless are exaggerated. This conclusion is based on empirical experience rather than theoretical concerns. The arguments are illustrated using compositional data for alkaline glasses, but have more general application. 相似文献
18.
19.
正Shrimps of genus Artemia are the inhabitants of continental and marine waters with salinity of 70 to 350 g/l and above.Artemia is able to survive in the conditions in which other animals cannot exist.This is due to adaptations:effective osmoregulation system,the ability to synthesize of respiratory pigment(hemoglobin)and diapauses cysts(Litvinenko at.al.,2009).Cysts of this 相似文献
20.
An algorithm andFortran-iv computer program,cabfac, forQ-mode factor analysis is described. The program will accept up to 1500 items and 50 variables on a moderate-size computer. 相似文献