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数值模拟方法在隐伏岩溶水源地保护区划分及污染治理中的应用 总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1
文章以北京市东南郊大兴迭隆起隐伏岩溶水子系统内的两个水源地（大兴念坛水源地与通州龙旺庄水源地）为例,研究数值模拟方法在隐伏岩溶地下水水源地保护区划分中的应用。研究基础为基于GMS建立的包括第四系与岩溶含水层在内的三维非稳定流地下水数值模拟模型,采用的主要技术手段为质点追踪技术,结合溶质质点迁移100 d与1 000 d的距离划分水源地的一级与二级保护区,并提出相应的污染防控措施。研究得出,对于隐伏岩溶水大部分来自上覆第四系松散孔隙水越流补给的情况,岩溶水源地保护区即是上覆松散含水层的保护区范围,应加强第四系孔隙含水层地下水污染的防治,以保护岩溶水不受污染。 相似文献
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水文地质参数场的刻画是建立地下水流数值模拟模型的关键问题和难点问题。通常来讲,参数场合理性程度越高,模型拟合精度越高。本次研究将随机方法和参数空间分布表达进行结合,提出了趋势化随机参数场的构建方法。以渗透系数为研究对象,首先利用MCMC采样和样本数据特征确定水文地质参数的基本数据结构,进而根据样本空间分布特征对其进行趋势化处理,最终形成趋势化的渗透系数场。通过算例分析,利用趋势化处理后的渗透系数场能够大幅提高模拟精度,相比传统赋均值方法其误差可降至原来的1/3。在北京大兴跌隆起地区进行的实例应用说明,趋势化渗透系数场对提升岩性粒径较大(中砂以上)地区模拟精度效果显著,案例中粗砂区域渗透系数经趋势化处理后平均拟合误差由2.76 m下降至0.64 m;而对岩性以细砂及以下粒径为主的区域模拟精度提升并不明显。总体来说,该方法可为地下水流数值模型的优化提供借鉴,提升模型拟合精度,从而更加合理地刻画地下水流系统。 相似文献
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自然界中的岩石通常含有大量复杂交错的结构面,造成岩石质量在三维空间中存在明显的各向异性。作为评价岩石质量的重要参数,岩石质量指标(广义RQDt)被广泛应用于岩体工程。结合三维裂隙网络模拟法和测线法,对岩体质量在三维空间不同方向上的分布规律进行研究:首先根据研究域岩体的裂隙统计参数及分布规律,利用Monte-Carlo法生成三维随机裂隙网络;然后通过在研究域内布置监测点和测线的方式来计算监测点处RQDt值随空间方位的变化,得到岩石质量空间分布图,以此来直观描述岩体质量沿空间不同方向的分布。将该法应用于某工程坝区岩体质量评估,表明该方法简单且具有较强的实用价值,可较全面描述岩体质量在空间方向上的分布规律。 相似文献
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为解决确定性模型可能为地下水源地划分带来的保护不足或过保护问题,探索采用基于正交拉丁超立方抽样法的地下水模型研究,并结合粒子反向追踪技术,进行地下水流随机模拟和对应保护区的概率统计分析,最终得到具有分布概率的保护区范围。为验证该方法的实用性与可靠性,选取北京市平谷区王都庄应急水源地进行实例应用研究。在考虑渗透系数和降雨补给量随机抽样组合基础上进行地下水流动随机模拟,并完成对应保护区划分和加权统计。与确定性模拟划分结果相对比:一级保护区中,确定性模拟划分结果仅相当于随机模拟结果中统计概率70%以上的范围;对于二级保护区,确定法对应保护面积相当于随机模拟结果中50%概率以上的范围。实例研究表明,基于正交拉丁超立方抽样的随机模拟法可完成多个不确定性输入变量条件下的随机模拟,且在小样本数的基础上获得理想结果,适用于复杂水文地质条件下的地下水源地保护区划分研究。 相似文献
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研究区大量分布中风化柱状叠层石灰岩, 岩石强度具有很强的变异性和区域性, 而岩石强度是影响边坡稳定的重要因素。要进行边坡稳定性评价, 就需要对研究区现场试验数据作为随机变量进行概率统计分析, 获取可靠的岩石强度指标。本文通过对研究区内中风化柱状叠层石灰岩( t23 ) 现场点荷载实验数据进行统计分析, 利用x2 检验进行拟和, 得到岩石强度的概率密度函数和概率分布形式, 抗压强度和抗拉强度均服从对数正态分布。在此基础上, 结合相近岩性岩石强度的拟和结果, 建立区内中风化柱状叠层石灰岩点荷载试验强度概率分布函数。运用Bayes估计推断区域内中风化柱状叠层石灰岩岩石点荷载强度, 得到岩石抗压强度预测值为72. 42 MPa, 抗拉强度预测值为2. 29 MPa, 相对误差较小, 样本信任度达到70%以上。该方法对于岩石强度估计是有效的, 由该方法所得到的估计值对研究区边坡稳定性评价以及后期边坡治理都具有重要的实践意义。 相似文献
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基于蒙特卡罗随机有限元法的三维随机渗流场研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
通过建立改进Latin超立方抽样和对偶抽样相结合的复合抽样法,以提高Monte Carlo方法的计算效率,并将其引入Monte Carlo随机有限元（MSFEM）。基于三维有限元模型,采用MCSFEM对山坪土石坝进行随机渗流场分析,研究渗透系数和水头边界条件的随机特性对渗流场的干扰,进行变异系数和抽样次数的敏感性分析。最后,对渗流场的求解量进行概型分析。研究表明：总水头势、流速及渗透体积力的变异性随着渗透系数随机性的增强而变大;复合抽样法既能有效加快Monte Carlo的收敛速度,又能降低样本间的统计相关性,说明了该方法的实用性与有效性;当渗透系数服从正态分布时,渗流场中所取结点的水头和坡降也服从正态分布。 相似文献
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Luis Manuel de Vries Jesus Carrera Oriol Falivene Oscar Gratacós Luit Jan Slooten 《Mathematical Geosciences》2009,41(1):29-42
Simulation of flow and solute transport through aquifers or oil reservoirs requires a precise representation of subsurface
heterogeneity that can be achieved by stochastic simulation approaches. Traditional geostatistical methods based on variograms,
such as truncated Gaussian simulation or sequential indicator simulation, may fail to generate the complex, curvilinear, continuous
and interconnected facies distributions that are often encountered in real geological media, due to their reliance on two-point
statistics. Multiple Point Geostatistics (MPG) overcomes this constraint by using more complex point configurations whose
statistics are retrieved from training images. Obtaining representative statistics requires stationary training images, but
geological understanding often suggests a priori facies variability patterns. This research aims at extending MPG to non-stationary
facies distributions. The proposed method subdivides the training images into different areas. The statistics for each area
are stored in separate frequency search trees. Several training images are used to ensure that the obtained statistics are
representative. The facies probability distribution for each cell during simulation is calculated by weighting the probabilities
from the frequency trees. The method is tested on two different object-based training image sets. Results show that non-stationary
training images can be used to generate suitable non-stationary facies distributions. 相似文献
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为了快速获取印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛元素分布的详细情况,根据苏门答腊岛的地形及景观特征,以水系沉积物和土壤为采样介质,实施了覆盖全岛的1：100万低密度地球化学填图。详细介绍了1：100万低密度地球化学填图的野外工作方法、测试的元素及分析技术,根据测试结果制作了苏门答腊岛69种元素地球化学图,计算和分析了苏门答腊岛地球化学背景的特征参数。总结了苏门答腊岛不同成因类型组合元素的分布特征及规律,圈定了16处地球化学综合异常。结合主因子综合异常特征以及区内典型矿床(点)空间分布、规模,对苏门答腊岛主成矿元素综合异常进行了甲、乙、丙分类,包括6个甲级综合异常、4个乙级综合异常和6个丙级综合异常,并优选3处具有较好找矿潜力的甲级综合异常进行异常解释和讨论,认为HS7综合异常具有寻找SEDEX型铅锌矿的潜力,HS8和HS11综合异常具有寻找浅成低温热液型金银矿和矽卡岩型铜铅锌矿床的潜力,为苏门答腊岛深入开展矿产勘查提供参考和依据。 相似文献
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在场地岩土工程勘察中,为使所取土样之间满足数据独立性的要求,本文提出应使钻孔取样间距等于土的相关距离,这样能真实、准确地反映地基土的特性。根据Vanmarcke提出的随机场模型,结合数理统计和随机过程理论,采用递推平均法计算得到土的相关距离,其计算数据来自现场静力触探试验。 相似文献
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岩体结构均质区划分是结构面统计与建模的基础。实践中以主控要素作指标、以最优划法为依据,更易获客观真实划分结果。针对国内核废料处置库北山预选区岩体结构面,开展了测窗范围截取、取样偏差及块网变异修正前处理,编程实现了多种方法下的均质区划分,初步探究各法在北山的判别力、适用性、局限性。结果表明：针对北山预选区而言,关联系数法和Mahtab法适用性较弱,Miller法最强;而Miller法中又以“34格大面积块”的划分效果最佳。将此最优划法应用至北山芨芨槽块段,希望能给结构面网络建模及后续渗流计算提供有益参考。 相似文献
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Linah Mohamed Ben Calderhead Maurizio Filippone Mike Christie Mark Girolami 《Computational Geosciences》2012,16(2):423-436
This paper presents the application of a population Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to generate history-matched
models. The technique has been developed and successfully adopted in challenging domains such as computational biology but
has not yet seen application in reservoir modelling. In population MCMC, multiple Markov chains are run on a set of response
surfaces that form a bridge from the prior to posterior. These response surfaces are formed from the product of the prior
with the likelihood raised to a varying power less than one. The chains exchange positions, with the probability of a swap
being governed by a standard Metropolis accept/reject step, which allows for large steps to be taken with high probability.
We show results of Population MCMC on the IC Fault Model—a simple three-parameter model that is known to have a highly irregular
misfit surface and hence be difficult to match. Our results show that population MCMC is able to generate samples from the
complex, multi-modal posterior probability distribution of the IC Fault model very effectively. By comparison, previous results
from stochastic sampling algorithms often focus on only part of the region of high posterior probability depending on algorithm
settings and starting points. 相似文献
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成矿预测需要通过一定的规则集合将专家观点、地质背景、成矿类型等因素进行综合考虑。但由于受到人类实际计算能力的生物条件限制,影响找矿预测成果的最大因素是找矿者的经验知识。随着大数据时代的到来,成矿预测可充分利用数学计算,即以特定规则对成矿系统进行计算,以概率表示成矿前景。依靠计算机的超级运算能力,结合机器学习的方法技术,可以对地质大数据进行成矿预测特征学习,实现对众多地质变量与矿体相关性之间的验证,从而进行预测。本文以安徽东至兆吉口铅锌矿床为例,示范如何通过机器学习的卷积神经网络方法,学习元素Zn在地表的分布特征与矿体在地下空间就位的耦合关系,并圈定靶区。经过450次训练后,得到了准确率95%,损失率14%的CNN模型,并成功实现智能圈定3块找矿靶区。这种神经网络模型可能表达了矿体在地下就位时元素在地表分布的响应,可以用来进行找矿勘查并圈定靶区。 相似文献
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Application of multiple-point geostatistics on modelling groundwater flow and transport in a cross-bedded aquifer (Belgium) 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Sedimentological processes often result in complex three-dimensional subsurface heterogeneity of hydrogeological parameter values. Variogram-based stochastic approaches are often not able to describe heterogeneity in such complex geological environments. This work shows how multiple-point geostatistics can be applied in a realistic hydrogeological application to determine the impact of complex geological heterogeneity on groundwater flow and transport. The approach is applied to a real aquifer in Belgium that exhibits a complex sedimentary heterogeneity and anisotropy. A training image is constructed based on geological and hydrogeological field data. Multiple-point statistics are borrowed from this training image to simulate hydrofacies occurrence, while intrafacies permeability variability is simulated using conventional variogram-based geostatistical methods. The simulated hydraulic conductivity realizations are used as input to a groundwater flow and transport model to investigate the effect of small-scale sedimentary heterogeneity on contaminant plume migration. Results show that small-scale sedimentary heterogeneity has a significant effect on contaminant transport in the studied aquifer. The uncertainty on the spatial facies distribution and intrafacies hydraulic conductivity distribution results in a significant uncertainty on the calculated concentration distribution. Comparison with standard variogram-based techniques shows that multiple-point geostatistics allow better reproduction of irregularly shaped low-permeability clay drapes that influence solute transport. 相似文献
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Geostatistical Seismic Inversion with Direct Sequential Simulation and Co-simulation with Multi-local Distribution Functions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Rúben Nunes Amílcar Soares Leonardo Azevedo Pedro Pereira 《Mathematical Geosciences》2017,49(5):583-601
Stochastic sequential simulation is a common modelling technique used in Earth sciences and an integral part of iterative geostatistical seismic inversion methodologies. Traditional stochastic sequential simulation techniques based on bi-point statistics assume, for the entire study area, stationarity of the spatial continuity pattern and a single probability distribution function, as revealed by a single variogram model and inferred from the available experimental data, respectively. In this paper, the traditional direct sequential simulation algorithm is extended to handle non-stationary natural phenomena. The proposed stochastic sequential simulation algorithm can take into consideration multiple regionalized spatial continuity patterns and probability distribution functions, depending on the spatial location of the grid node to be simulated. This work shows the application and discusses the benefits of the proposed stochastic sequential simulation as part of an iterative geostatistical seismic inversion methodology in two distinct geological environments in which non-stationarity behaviour can be assessed by the simultaneous interpretation of the available well-log and seismic reflection data. The results show that the elastic models generated by the proposed stochastic sequential simulation are able to reproduce simultaneously the regional and global variogram models and target distribution functions relative to the average volume of each sub-region. When used as part of a geostatistical seismic inversion procedure, the retrieved inverse models are more geologically realistic, since they incorporate the knowledge of the subsurface geology as provided, for example, by seismic and well-log data interpretation. 相似文献
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Identifying variably saturated water-flow patterns in a steep hillslope under intermittent heavy rainfall 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The objective of this paper is to identify water-flow patterns in part of an active landslide, through the use of numerical
simulations and data obtained during a field study. The approaches adopted include measuring rainfall events and pore-pressure
responses in both saturated and unsaturated soils at the site. To account for soil variability, the Richards equation is solved
within deterministic and stochastic frameworks. The deterministic simulations considered average water-retention data, adjusted
retention data to account for stones or cobbles, retention functions for a heterogeneous pore structure, and continuous retention
functions for preferential flow. The stochastic simulations applied the Monte Carlo approach which considers statistical distribution
and autocorrelation of the saturated conductivity and its cross correlation with the retention function. Although none of
the models is capable of accurately predicting field measurements, appreciable improvement in accuracy was attained using
stochastic, preferential flow, and heterogeneous pore-structure models. For the current study, continuum-flow models provide
reasonable accuracy for practical purposes, although they are expected to be less accurate than multi-domain preferential
flow models.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
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褶皱网络中褶皱的空间分布是水力通性分析及渗漏量评估的基础。褶皱的空间分布规律尚待研究。基于一个典型场地的场底褶皱网络,利用K-S检验方法分析了褶皱几何参数服从的概率分布类型,统计得到了褶皱几何参数相应的统计参数。提出了基于褶皱几何参数的统计规律随机生成褶皱网络,并对随机褶皱网络进行渗漏量评估,然后从随机分析得到的渗漏量中选择特征值来表征场地的渗漏量的方法。通过案例分析,研究了该方法的应用。结果表明：对典型场底褶皱网络的统计分析为确定类似场地中褶皱几何参数的概率分布类型和统计参数具有重要的参考价值。由随机生成的褶皱网络得到的渗漏量样本的均值可以作为特征值,用来保守地评估场地内实际的渗漏量。基于案例分析,在对褶皱几何参数统计规律积累了丰富的经验后,可以实现对待建场地的设计不再需要获取整个场地的航拍图像,从而为有褶皱场地渗漏量评估提供了新思路。 相似文献