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1.
The potential of rain to generate soil erosion is known as the rainfall erosivity (R), and its estimation is fundamental for a better understanding of the erosive ability of certain rainfall events. In this paper, we investigated the temporal variations of rainfall erosivity using common daily rainfall data from four meteorological stations during 1956 to 1989 and 2008 to 2010 periods in the Yanhe River catchment of the Chinese Loess Plateau. The adaptability of several simplified calculation models for R was evaluated and compared with the results of previous studies. An exponential model based on the modified Fournier index (MFI) was considered as the optimum for our study area. By considering the monthly distribution and coefficient of variation of annual precipitation, equations based on two indices, the MFI and its modification F F , produced a higher calculation accuracy than mean annual precipitation. The rainfall erosivity in the Yanhe River catchment has a remarkable interannual difference, with a seasonality index ranging from 0.69 to 1.05 and a precipitation concentration index from 14.51 to 27.46. In addition to the annual rainfall amounts, the extreme wave of monthly rainfall distribution also has an effect on the magnitude and temporal variation of rainfall erosivity, especially interannual variation. For long time series of rainfall erosivity, a trend coefficient r of ?0.07 indicated a slight decline in erosivity in the Yanhe River catchment from 1956 to 2010.  相似文献   

2.
Among the numerous factors that trigger landslide events, the anthropogenic impact caused by inadequate planning and faulty land use in urban areas is increasing. The Zemun settlement on the northern outskirts of Belgrade has experienced a number of landslides in the last three decades, endangering buildings and roads, and claiming human lives, particularly in the case of the 2010/2011 landslides. Selected meteorological parameters were used to calculate rainfall erosivity indices such as Precipitation Concentration Index and Modified Fournier Index over the period 1991–2015. Drought indices, Lang aridity index and Palfai Drought Index were calculated as well. Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to identify potential rising and/or declining trends both in meteorological parameters and calculated indices. Trend analysis of the annual and seasonal scales yielded a statistically significant trend in the spring time series. Stable arid and pronounced drought conditions were recorded. The modified Fournier index based on monthly mean values yields moderate aggressiveness, with several extreme values indicating very high erosivity classes, especially for 2010/2011. The geological substrate is predominantly loess and hence highly susceptible to erosion and slope failure when climatological conditions are suitable. Accelerated urbanization at the end of the last century reduced vegetation cover, intensified pressure on the vertical loess slope, and lacked suitable rain drainage systems so that surface-water runoff was directed into the porous loess, thereby endangering slope stability. We proposed a geomorphic model to describe the nature of the erosional processes on the loess cliffs of the Zemun loess plateau. Results from this study have implications for mitigation strategies.  相似文献   

3.
我国西南山区降雨侵蚀力时空变化趋势研究   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  
降雨是我国西南山区土壤侵蚀的主要动力因素,降雨侵蚀力反映了降雨对土壤侵蚀的潜在能力,研究降雨侵蚀力的时空变化趋势对我国西南山区土壤侵蚀的监测、评估、预报和治理具有重要意义。利用1960—2009年129个气象站逐日降雨量资料,计算出西南山区各气象站逐年降雨侵蚀力。采用趋势系数、气候倾向率和克吕格插值等方法对西南山区降雨侵蚀力50年来的时空变化趋势进行了探讨。结果表明:西南山区降雨侵蚀力空间分布特征与年降水量的空间分布特征一致;西南山区西北部的青藏高原区域降雨侵蚀力年际变化明显,变差系数Cv一般高于0.40;西南山区大部地区降雨侵蚀力呈上升趋势,说明由降雨侵蚀力引起的土壤侵蚀风险在增加,但在成都平原附近降雨侵蚀力在明显下降;降雨侵蚀力变化趋势系数随海拔高度升高而不断增加,在海拔2 500 m以上地区尤为明显,西南山区西北部的高海拔地区海拔高度对降雨侵蚀力增加具有放大效应。  相似文献   

4.

This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+?1 to?+?5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro.

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5.
Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥?2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25°?×?0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥?2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥?2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (≥?40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥?20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.  相似文献   

6.
中国暴雨面雨量极值分布   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
研究了暴雨面积、面平均雨深、暴雨降水总量等有关面暴雨量极值的主要内容;给出了最大时面深记录等各种雨量极值;探讨了面暴雨极值的地域分布规律和影响因素。  相似文献   

7.
Given its geological and climatic conditions and its rugged orography, Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the North of Spain. Most of the landslides occur during intense rainfall episodes. Thus, precipitation is considered the main triggering factor in the study area, reaching average annual values of 960 mm. Two main precipitation patterns are frequent: (i) long-lasting periods of moderate rainfall during autumn and winter and (ii) heavy short rainfall episodes during spring and early summer. In the present work, soil moisture conditions in the locations of 84 landslides are analysed during two rainfall episodes, which represent the most common precipitation patterns: October–November 2008 and June 2010. Empirical data allowed the definition of available water capacity percentages of 99–100% as critical soil moisture conditions for the landslide triggering. Intensity-duration rainfall thresholds were calculated for each episode, considering the periods with sustained high soil moisture levels before the occurrence of each analysed landslide event. For this purpose, data from daily water balance models and weather stations were used. An inverse relationship between the duration of the precipitation and its intensity, consistent with published intensity-duration thresholds, was observed, showing relevant seasonal differences.  相似文献   

8.
In order to explore the consequences of precipitation increase on soil erosion in Uruguay, the monthly Fournier Index (FI) and the annual Modified Fournier Index (MFI) were developed as a preliminary approach, covering consecutive decadal periods from 1931 to 2000. Rainfall data were used from 13 stations distributed all over the country. MFI shows a decrease in the 1940s, an increase during the 1950s, then a little decrease during the 1960s and 1970s and an increase in the 1980s, remaining near these last values during the 1990s. FI behavior in July and October in the last two decades shows a decrease in the Northeast region of the country—the region with highest annual precipitation—and a slight increase over the Southeast—the region with the lowest annual precipitation and the only region with a winter rainfall maximum. For the core months of winter and early spring there is a decline in erosivity in the Northeast, but an increase in the Southeast. January shows erosivity decreasing in the South during the last two decades. In April there is a peak in precipitation variability all across the country. FI shows an early increase during the 1940s in the Northwest, and generally very low values during the 1970s, with the return of high values in the 1990s, especially in the Northern corner. Results pose a challenge in order to improve research on the erosion problem, since the main source of freshwater nationwide remains surface river flow, which is prone to higher turbidity problems in areas of high soil erosion.  相似文献   

9.
Geographical information systems (GIS)-based soil erosion risk assessment models continue to play an important role in soil conservation planning. In the present study, soil erosion risk of Istanbul–Elmalı dam watershed was determined within GIS-based COoRdination of INformation on the Environment (CORINE) soil erosion risk assessment method. Initially soil texture, soil depth, and surface stoniness maps were created and were intersected in GIS environment in order to generating erodibility map. Then, Fournier precipitation and Bagnouls–Gaussen drought indices determined based on meteorological data and erosivity were calculated. The composed erodibility map was co-evaluated within erosivity value and slope map of the site for composing potential erosion risk map. At the final step, the previous yearly land use maps which belong to years 1984, 1992, and 2003 intersected with potential erosion risk maps and temporal actual erosion risk alteration were assessed. In conclusion, according to our results in Elmalı watershed dam in 1984 there have been low, medium, and high erosion risks at rates 29.67, 52.49, and 17.84%, respectively, whereas in 2003 the erosion risk values have changed from low to high as 26.43, 46.57, and 27.00%, respectively. Inter-year comparison alteration to the advantage of the high erosion risk could have resulted from over degradation and high exposure to anthropogenic activities.  相似文献   

10.
将秦岭淮河以北、90°E以东的广大地区呈现“多雨” 格局的年份称为“北方多雨年”,其中105°N以东地域降水偏多的年份称为“北方东部多雨年”。综合利用历史文献记录、树木年轮代用记录和降水量资料来确定近五百年间的北方多雨年份和北方东部多雨年份,并建立历史年表(1470～2007年)。指出,在过去的538年间有北方多雨年97年(发生率18.0%)和北方东部多雨年174年(发生率32.3%),二者均呈现阶段性集中出现的特点,各有6个长约 20～40年的频繁发生时段。在北半球和东亚气候相对温暖的时段内,北方多雨年和北方东部多雨年的发生频率明显地高于气候相对寒冷的时段,这意味着在未来气候变暖的背景下,我国的降水分布将可能出现北方多雨年频繁出现的情形。在最近百年的全球大范围急剧升温时段,北方多雨年的发生频率仅表现为高于冷时段而已,并未呈现随增温速率的加快而同步增高,这表明北方多雨年的发生率与温度背景并非简单的线性关系。  相似文献   

11.
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12.
The variability in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation is analyzed for several regions of Argentina to the north of 39º S, using long-term monthly time series data which expand from 1860 to 2006. The selected locations can be considered as representative of different climatic regions. This work focuses on the analysis of monthly rainfall distribution, significant seasonal trends, changes in variance and extreme monthly values, in order to establish the magnitude of the seasonal climatic rainfall variability through time for central Argentina. A 40-yr moving window was employed in order to analyze seasonal variability of rainfall extremes. Extremes were computed for different probability levels of a theoretical distribution function over/below the 80th/20th percentile. The gamma distribution was selected among five other theoretical distributions, and the scale and shape parameters were computed using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and the bootstrap method for 1000 resample data sets, as well. Trend analysis was performed for each window on winter and summer means and tested for significance. The use of a moving window allowed detecting the window of maximum absolute values for the trends. Research results show significant temporal shifts in seasonal rainfall distribution and return values (RV) that were computed for different frequencies (once every five, 10 and 20 years). Generally, summer precipitation extremes have become wetter for the whole region. Rainfall amounts for summer wet/dry extremes (W/D) corresponding to the 90th (for W) and 10th (for D) percentiles were subjected to significant increase, but depending on the geographical area this effect spreads slightly differently over records of years. A common-for-all-stations period of such summer increase trend in extreme values spans from the window 1921-1960 to the last window analyzed: 1967-2006. This behavior was not observed for north and west Argentina during winter, except for the region represented by Bahía Blanca, where the 10% D extreme has increased throughout the study period.  相似文献   

13.
《Quaternary International》2006,142(1):140-146
This paper deals with the possible occurrence, within the next 100–1000 years, and under the same geomorphological conditions, of meteorological events similar to the precipitation which triggered the hydric erosion that initiated Corralito ravine. The study area is located in the central part of Córdoba Province (32° 05′–31° 45′S; 64°10′–63°30′W) in the Plains region. The erosive process was started by the storm of September 1978. Five years later, two extreme rains took place in the same humid period (1983/84), with recurrence intervals of 10 and 25 years, respectively, and in the year 2000 another extreme rainstorm with a 100-year return period occurred. Each event can be correlated with the main reactivation surfaces, visible as successive deepening levels at the gully. Although there is a positive climatic tendency in annual rainfall, due to an increasing number of rainy days, the annual maximum of daily rainfall remained constant. Hence, the dominant factor in the ravine development was the occurrence of convectively generated extreme hydrometeorologic events. Prediction of 24-h maximum rainfall through the DIT Model is applicable to the future, allowing the design of structures required to control overflowing and sediment production.  相似文献   

14.
Trends of pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall pattern were studied on decadal basis over different homogeneous monsoon regions in India for the period 1871–2008. It is attempted to understand the relation of monsoon rainfall with the global teleconnections of El Niño and La Niña, for which the correlation analysis has been carried out with Darwin pressure and Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (Niño 3.4 SST). The correlation analysis inferred that the significant correlations were observed when monsoon rainfall is related to ENSO indices on decadal scale than on annual ones. The study also found that the north-west region is more affected by the moderate El Niño years compared to strong El Niño years. The regions Central North-East and North-East could not make any difference among weak, moderate and strong La Niña events. The authors also have carried out the extreme value analysis over different homogeneous monsoon regions of India as well as for whole India. The results show that the return values of rainfall are increasing with the return periods for the forthcoming 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The heterogeneity in number of threshold years that were recorded for the extreme rainfall over north-east (humid climatic type) and north-west (arid climatic type) described the climate variability. The results of the present study may be useful for the policy makers in understanding the rainfall exceedance in different return periods for planning the risk management strategies.  相似文献   

15.
《Atmósfera》2014,27(4):411-427
Daily extreme precipitation values are among environmental events with the most disastrous consequences for human society. Information on the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme precipitations is essential for sustainable water resources management, planning for weather-related emergencies, and design of hydraulic structures. In the present study, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfalls was investigated for Golestan province located in the northeastern Iran. This study aimed to find appropriate regional frequency distributions for maximum daily rainfalls and predict the return values of extreme rainfall events (design rainfall depths) for the future. L-moment regionalization procedures coupled with an index rainfall method were applied to maximum rainfall records of 47 stations across the study area. Due to complex geographic and hydro-climatological characteristics of the region, an important research issue focused on breaking down the large area into homogeneous and coherent sub-regions. The study area was divided into five homogeneous regions, based on the cluster analysis of site characteristics and tests for the regional homogeneity. The goodness-of-fit results indicated that the best fitting distribution is different for individual homogeneous regions. The difference may be a result of the distinctive climatic and geographic conditions. The estimated regional quantiles and their accuracy measures produced by Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the estimation uncertainty as measured by the RMSE values and 90% error bounds is relatively low when return periods are less than 100 years. But, for higher return periods, rainfall estimates should be treated with caution. More station years, either from longer records or more stations in the regions, would be required for rainfall estimates above T=100 years. It was found from the analyses that, the index rainfall (at-site average maximum rainfall) can be estimated reasonably well as a function of mean annual precipitation in Golestan province. Index rainfalls combined with the regional growth curves, can be used to estimate design rainfalls at ungauged sites. Overall, it was found that cluster analysis together with the L-moments based regional frequency analysis technique could be applied successfully in deriving design rainfall estimates for northeastern Iran. The approach utilized in this study and the findings are of great scientific and practical merit, particularly for the purpose of planning for weather-related emergencies and design of hydraulic engineering structures.  相似文献   

16.
Evaporation capacity is an important factor that cannot be ignored when judging whether extreme precipitation events will produce groundwater recharge. The evaporation layer’s role in groundwater recharge was evaluated using a lysimeter simulation experiment in the desert area of Dunhuang, in the western part of the Hexi Corridor in northwestern China’s Gansu Province. The annual precipitation in the study area is extremely low, averaging 38.87 mm during the 60-year study period, and daily pan evaporation amounts to 2,486 mm. Three simulated precipitation regimes (normal, 10 mm; ordinary annual maximum, 21 mm; and extreme, 31 mm) were used in the lysimeter simulation to allow monitoring of water movement and weighing to detect evaporative losses. The differences in soil-water content to a depth of 50 cm in the soil profile significantly affected rainfall infiltration during the initial stages of rainfall events. It was found that the presence of a dry 50-cm-deep sand layer was the key factor for “potential recharge” after the three rainfall events. Daily precipitation events less than 20 mm did not produce groundwater recharge because of the barrier effect created by the dry sand. Infiltration totaled 0.68 mm and penetrated to a depth below 50 cm with 31 mm of rainfall, representing potential recharge equivalent to 1.7 % of the rainfall. This suggests that only extreme precipitation events offer the possibility of recharge of groundwater in this extremely arid area.  相似文献   

17.
In this study, regional evapotranspiration is estimated in a wide flatland area that includes Salado River Basin and four tributary basins by using gravity measurements of the space mission Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Monthly estimates of large-scale variations in the land-water storage are obtained from the satellite data. Evapotranspiration is computed with the water-balance equation using the GRACE land-water solutions, rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center and runoff values obtained as 5% of the precipitation. GRACE-derived evapotranspiration values are consistent with the different climatic scenarios observed, and they satisfactorily agree with estimates provided by a global hydrological model. The overall results show that the method used is a valid tool for characterizing the evapotranspiration in the Argentine Pampas and that it can be used to detect and examine changes in the evapotranspiration pattern associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic events. This study illustrates the ability of GRACE to analyze and predict evapotranspiration and other processes on a regional scale in a flatland area.  相似文献   

18.
Natural Hazards - The main goals of this study are to better understand the spatial and temporal variabilities in rainfall and to identify rainfall trends and erosivity for the period from 1963 to...  相似文献   

19.
The water-table fluctuation (WTF) method is one of the most widely used means to estimate aquifer recharge. In the northeastern coast of the Buenos Aires province, Argentina, the geomorphological and climatic characteristics, as well as the presence of a shallow, homogeneous unconfined aquifer, make it possible to apply this methodology. The relationship between water-table fluctuations and precipitation in a humid climate, considering its seasonal variations, is assessed. Water tables were measured monthly between February 2008 and September 2010 in a monitoring network; rainfall data were analysed. The water table rises when the accumulated precipitation between measurements is more than 53?mm/month in the dry season and more than 97?mm/month in the rainy season. The index, relating water-table fluctuations and precipitation occurring between measurements, shows that values below 0 suggest no increase in the water reserves, whereas higher values entail an increase. In the study area, where there is a lack of historical data, finding out the relationship between water-table fluctuations and precipitation will constitute a tool for groundwater use and management, and set up an early warning system for dry periods. It could also be extrapolated to other regions with similar hydrological conditions lacking in data.  相似文献   

20.
Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum temperature, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales were used to identify spatial and temporal distribution of climatic extreme and variability as well as drought frequency and magnitude. Seven oceanic indices were also used to detect teleconnections between climatic indices and regional droughts. The analyses were conducted for 56 meteorological stations, during 1962?C2008, characterized by a long-term and high-quality data set. The result indicates that decreasing trends and increasing trends are identified for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Consequently, it appears that frost and ice days dwindle as growing season (May?CAugust) length, tropical nights and summer days increase. Given current climate conditions, the results also imply that these trends will continue in the future possibly driven by uncertain climate variability. We anticipate that these indices explained by teleconnections will improve drought-forecasting capability in this region.  相似文献   

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