共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 281 毫秒
1.
高温热浪与干热风的危害特征比较研究 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7
综述了高温热浪与干热风气象灾害在危害特点、类型与指标、气候特征、形成原因、对全球气候变暖的响应、防御技术与应对策略等6个方面的内容。并对两者进行了比较,高温热浪和干热风既有共同点又有区别和联系,两者均是一种较短时间尺度的重大天气灾害,高温低湿是两者主要的基本天气特征;在形成原因——主要是环流特征异常和对全球气候的响应等方面两者基本上是一致的;在同一地域同一时间两者也可能同时发生;在干旱季节有利于这两种灾害的发生发展和加重危害。在危害特点、类型与指标、气候特征、防御技术与应对策略等方面有所不同,高温热浪是一种综合性的气象灾害;而干热风是一种农业气象灾害。 相似文献
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1983-2013年西藏自治区气象灾害时空分布特征与变化趋势 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
西藏自治区地处青藏高原这一独特的孕灾环境中,气象灾害的频发对当地农牧业、生态环境等敏感领域的影响尤为显著。通过收集西藏自治区1983-2013年气象灾害事件,分析了干旱、雪灾、霜冻、冰雹和洪涝五种灾害的年际、月际、空间分布特征。结果表明：在时间分布上,研究区五种气象灾害在1983-1995年发生总频次呈增涨趋势,1995年后趋于稳定,其中干旱多发生在3-6月,雪灾全年均有发生,霜冻多发生在4月、5月和8月,冰雹和暴雨洪涝灾害季节性强,主要发生在6-9月;在空间分布上,气象灾害高发区分布于西藏自治区南部,其中,干旱多发区分布于日喀则市中东部和山南市北部,雪灾多发区分布于那曲、阿里以及西藏自治区南部边缘地区,霜冻多发区分布于西藏自治区东、南部少数地区,冰雹频发区多呈带状且分布于雅鲁藏布江流域,暴雨洪涝多发区分布于西藏自治区中、东部河谷地带。基于历史气象灾害事件,开展西藏自治区气象灾害的时空分布特征及趋势研究,其结果对农业气象灾害预测预报,区域农业防灾减灾等具有重要的意义。 相似文献
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青藏高原是承受自然灾害脆弱性较高的地区。该区域经常遭受雪灾、干旱、大风、雷电、冰雹和洪涝等气象灾害的危害,其中,干旱是该区域除雪灾外影响最为严重的气象灾害。随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,青藏高原由气象灾害造成的损失不断加剧。为此,着眼于青藏高原的区域特点,对其气象干旱研究现状进行了梳理与分析,系统总结了青藏高原气象干旱的主要研究成果,揭示了青藏高原气象干旱时空分布的基本特征：干旱的高发区在高原的北部、东北部、西南部和东南部,高发时段为1980年代和2000年代;归纳了青藏高原气象干旱监测和预测的主要技术方法：基于干旱指数开展的干旱监测评估和基于干旱影响因子利用气候模式进行的干旱预测;给出了青藏高原干旱灾害风险的发生规律：青藏高原东北部偏南地区是农牧业干旱灾害的高风险区,东北部、西南部和东南部是较高风险区;高寒草原比高寒草甸面临的干旱灾害风险高。基于数值模式和未来情景,预估21世纪青藏高原气温升高、降水增加;但由于降水增加表现出明显的时空分布不均匀性,未来发生季节性和区域性气象干旱的可能性仍然很大;同时,提出了青藏高原气象干旱研究在资料、技术方法和模式应用等方面存在的问题,并结合国际前沿... 相似文献
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干旱指标的理论分析与研究展望 总被引：81，自引：3，他引：78
干旱作为最严重的气象灾害之一,已经对我国社会经济和人民生活造成严重影响。尽管关于干旱和干旱指标已有大量研究,但是由于干旱自身的复杂特性和对社会影响的广泛性,干旱指标都是建立在特定的地域和时间范围内,难以准确反映干旱发生的内在机理。为此有必要对干旱定义及国内外主要的干旱指标加以综述和评价,为干旱的监测和评估,特别是为全球变化中的气候-植被关系研究提供方法和依据。将干旱分为 4种类型：气象干旱、农业干旱、水文干旱和社会经济干旱,并对当前国内外主要的干旱指标进行介绍,指出了其适用范围,并在归纳现有干旱指标不足的基础上提出了干旱指标的研究方向和任务。 相似文献
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中国西北地区干旱气象灾害监测预警与减灾技术研究进展及其展望 总被引：18，自引：1，他引：17
干旱灾害是制约中国西北地区社会经济发展、农业生产和生态文明建设的重要自然灾害,而且随着气候变暖西北地区极端干旱事件发生频率和强度均呈增加趋势,影响不断加重。"中国西北干旱气象灾害监测预警及减灾技术研究"成果是在数十个国家级科研项目的支持下,经过过去20年的理论研究和应用技术开发所取得的一系列创新性成果。该成果对西北干旱形成机理及重大干旱事件发生、发展的规律取得了新认识,尤其是发现了形成西北干旱环流模态的4种主要物理途径;研制了西北干旱预测的新指标、干旱监测的新指数及监测农田蒸散的新设备,明显提高了干旱监测准确性和针对性;提出了山地云物理气象学新理论,研发了水源涵养型国家重点生态功能区——祁连山空中云水资源开发利用技术;发现了干旱半干旱区陆面水分输送和循环的新规律,揭示了绿洲自我维持的物理机制;认识了干旱气候变化对农业生态系统影响的新特征,建立了旱作农业对干旱灾害的响应关系;开发了旱区覆膜保墒、集雨补灌、垄沟栽培、适宜播期等应对气候变化的减灾技术,为西北实施种植制度、农业布局及结构调整和农业气候资源高效利用提供了科学方案。该成果的完成提升了中国干旱防灾减灾技术水平,培养了中国干旱气象科技队伍,推进了西北地区干旱气象业务服务能力,对西北地区社会经济发展、农业现代化和生态文明建设等方面起到了重要的促进作用。在此基础上,展望了西北地区干旱气象科学研究中迫切需要、有可能突破的主要领域。 相似文献
6.
气候暖干化对中国北方干热风的影响 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9
综述并阐明了干热风气象灾害在指标类型、时空分布、形成原因、发生环境、危害特征、防御技术等6个方面的内容,干热风危害特点具有明显温度猛增、湿度骤降的突变性和昼夜维持干热天气分不开.气候暖干化是北方现代气候变化的基本特征,气候变暖尤其使极端气温显著升高,气候变干使降水量持续偏少,出现了明显干旱化趋势.干热风发生次数与气候变暖呈显著正相关,与气候变干呈显著反相关.干热风对气候暖干化的响应十分敏感,气候暖干化使干热风发生区域扩大、次数增多、强度增强、危害加重.因此,防御干热风和干旱化危害刻不容缓. 相似文献
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青海省气象干旱对粮食产量的影响及其评估方法研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
气象干旱是青海省发生最为频繁的气象灾害之一, 具有出现频率高、 持续时间长、 影响范围广等特点, 对农业生产造成极大的影响, 严重的干旱少雨之年常使农业大幅度减产, 甚至绝收. 为了研究气象干旱对青海省粮食产量产生的影响, 根据拉格朗日插值方法给出了青海省无干旱时"期望产量"的确定方法, 并据此求算出历年干旱对青海省粮食产量的损失量值, 然后依据农作物不同生育期所发生的干旱的强度、 范围以及作物对干旱的敏感度等关系, 建立了干旱损失量的统计和评估模式. 在2006-2010年青海省粮食产量评估中进行应用, 5 a中有4 a误差小于5%, 仅2006年误差百分率达到-9.38%; 由此, 证明了运用干旱损失评估方法, 可以评估出干旱对粮食产量的损失量, 从而评估出青海省的实际粮食产量, 效果较好, 可以在青海省今后的粮食产量预报和评估中推广应用. 相似文献
10.
青海省气象灾害的若干气候特征分析 总被引：12，自引：4，他引：8
利用1984-2007年气象灾害资料, 分析了青海省各类气象灾害的发生机率及时空分布特征.冰雹、 暴雨洪涝、 雪灾、 干旱和雷电及霜冻是青海省主要气象灾害, 连阴雨、 大风、 沙尘暴、 冻害、 渍涝、 高温、 龙卷风、 大雾为青海次要气象灾害.在地域分布上, 海南州和海东地区是青海气象灾害多发和危害严重地区; 玉树州和果洛州属于气象灾害发生较少和危害较轻地区.就行政县域而言, 西宁市湟中县、 海南州兴海县、 贵德县为青海气象灾害多发县, 果洛州班玛县、 久治县、 玉树州治多县则是青海省气象灾害较少和危害较轻县份.年内5-6月出现的气象灾害种类最多, 4-9月份是气象灾害高发期.在1984-2007年间, 暴雨洪涝、 冰雹、 雷电灾害发生次数呈增多趋势, 其他灾害发生次数增多趋势不甚明显. 相似文献
11.
Characteristics of high impact weather and meteorological disaster in Shanghai,China 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including
the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai,
China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during
1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm,
strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties
caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing
slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant
trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters
made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai
has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high
temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and
necessary for local government and the public in the future. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - Meteorological disasters (MDs), including drought, flood, hail, low temperature and frost (LTF), are causing severe damage to human life and economic development in China. Mapping... 相似文献
13.
通过分析我国东北、华北、西北地区东部、西南以及黄淮、江淮和江汉5个区域不同时间尺度气象干旱指数与20 cm土壤相对湿度的相关关系, 探讨了前期气象干旱对后期土壤湿度的影响, 并利用多元线性回归方法分区域、分季节建立了土壤湿度预测模型.结果表明: 春季, 东北地区土壤湿度主要受前5~6个月, 尤其是上年秋末冬初的降水的影响, 而其他4个区域土壤湿度主要受前1~2个月大气水分的影响;各区域夏季土壤湿度与前1~2个月时间尺度上的大气水分相关最密切;秋季, 东北地区20 cm土壤湿度主要受前2~4个月的气象干旱的影响, 其余区域土壤湿度仍与前1~2个月尺度的大气水分相关最密切.基于前期气象干旱指数建立的各区域、各季节的土壤湿度回归模型对当地土壤湿度具有一定的拟合能力, 平均估计偏差在10.1%~13.9%之间, 其中, 西北地区东部和华北地区春、夏季偏差较大, 2008-2011年间干旱等级拟合准确率在65%~74.9%之间;东北、西南、黄淮、江淮和江汉区域拟合较好, 拟合准确率在88%以上. 相似文献
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China’s regional meteorological disaster loss analysis and evaluation based on grey cluster model 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
To evaluate the regional meteorological disaster loss of China, this paper analyzed the different types of meteorological disasters, including droughts, floods, tropical storms, snowstorms and hail disasters. Based on the analysis about Chinese geographical features, the historical characteristics of different meteorological disasters are analyzed. In particular, these meteorological disasters influence to agriculture production are discussed. According to the analysis of data from 2004 to 2010, we know that the distribution characteristics are very different about different disasters. Provinces like Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shanxi and Yunnan are serious affected areas of drought influence. And Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan and Heilongjiang are serious affected areas by floods and heavy rain. While Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Shandong are mainly affected by tropical storms, Henan, Hebei, Hunan and Hubei are serious affected by snowstorms and hail disasters. Then, a novel method based on grey cluster model is constructed and combined with the regional meteorological disaster loss evaluation index system. A total of 31 provinces are considered to evaluate the integrated meteorological disaster losses. The results indicated that Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Xizang, Qinghai and Ningxia belong to the lighter loss grey class. Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Hainan, Sichuan and Gansu belong to the serious loss grey class. Other regions belong to the general loss grey class that the influence caused by meteorological disasters not better than the lighter loss grey class and not worst than the serious loss grey class. 相似文献
15.
Troy Sternberg 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):533-548
Transboundary hazard risk reflects how different societies interact with disaster in a shared landscape. In the Gobi desert of northern China and southern Mongolia recurring drought, extreme cold, wind and dust storms are the dominant hazards yet disasters vary significantly in the two countries. Research examined national approaches to environmental engagement and livelihoods in the desert through an assessment of disaster risk in two Gobi communities; farmers in Gansu Province, China, and herders in Dundgov and Omnogov Provinces, Mongolia. Exposure and resilience was evaluated and work examined how risk factors are shaped by policy, economics, culture and social memory. Comparison between two state systems reveals how disaster risk and vulnerability are shaped as much by human action as by the physical climatic event. China stressed government-led disaster management whilst Mongolia emphasised adaptation to hazards. Integrating multiple divisions within a hazard zone is essential to address risk reduction; without this disaster mitigation remains state-specific and lacks applicability to a wider area or global context. 相似文献
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Cold and hot damages which are both common disasters occurring in DSER growth time in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin harm early rice. The two disasters occurrence should be deeply studied to protect the DSER yield. This study was based on meteorological data of 48 agricultural meteorological stations during 1961-2010 period and agricultural meteorological data during 1981-2010 for DSER in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, the growth time was divided into several phases according to the growth stage, including tillering stage, booting stage, flowering stage and filling stage. The disasters taking place at some stages was identified by building new judging standard and their intensity value was calculated by harm accumulated temperature calculation model. Fisher optimal division method was used to classify the disasters and H-P filter was used to consider the reduction of the yield. It was conducted to analize the disasters’ characteristics in growing season, the intensity of hazard and the weight of hazard at each stage by judging and quantifying cold and hot damage and developing hazard assessment model of disasters. All findings were displayed in maps by GIS technology. The results showed that: ①New disaster judging standard was more suitable for DSER and the hazard assessment model could reveal the disaster situation in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. ②Cold damage was severe at tillering stage while hot damage was severe at filling stage. In the view of the distribution of the decadal disaster intensity, cold damage became to be weak and hot damage became to be strong. Compared with the plains, mountainous region and hilly ground were attacked by cold damage frequently and hot damage rarely from the perspective of spatial distribution of disasters. Distinctly, plains near large areas of water were often harmed by cold damage at booting and flowering stage. ③The area of high hazard value and high disasters value at each stage were overlapped by each other roughly. Studying the hazard of the whole growth season showed that the highest hazard value was in Zhejiang province, and the next in Hubei Province. So Hu’nan and Jiangxi Provinces were quite suitable to grow DSER. ④In contrast with the hazard weight at each stage, the vulnerable phases of the whole growth time were in sequence of filling stage> tillering stage> flowering stage > booting stage. What’s more, aiming at defensing and fending off risk, some special stages in special province should be paid close attention including booting and filling stages in Hubei Province, tillering and flowering and filling stages in Hu’nan Province, tillering and filling stages in Jiangxi Province, flowering and filling stages in Zhejiang Province. The conclusion can be taken as theoretical basis for the government management of agricultural production, disaster prevention and mitigation. 相似文献
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全球气候变化影响了气象水文要素的时空分布特性,气象水文干旱事件的转化关系及风险传播特征亟待研究。基于站点、栅格观测资料和CMIP5（Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase5）的19个气候模式输出数据,采用新安江等4个水文模型模拟了中国135个流域历史（1961—2005年）和未来时期（2011—2055年,2056—2100年）的水文过程,计算了SPI（Standard Precipitation Index）和SRI（Standard Runoff Index）干旱指标,通过游程理论识别了气象干旱与水文干旱事件,利用Copula函数与最大可能权函数度量二维干旱风险特征,定量评估了气象干旱至水文干旱的潜在风险传播特性。结果表明:①气象-水文干旱对气候变化响应强烈,华北和东北地区的干旱联合重现期增大,干旱潜在风险减小,华中和华南地区的干旱联合重现期减少60%~80%,干旱潜在风险增加;②气象干旱与水文干旱风险在历史和未来时段均存在显著的正相关关系,相关系数超过0.99;③各流域水文干旱风险变化对气象干旱风险变化的敏感程度不会随气候变暖发生较大变化,但未来北方地区水文干旱同气象干旱同时发生的概率将会小幅度增加。 相似文献
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采用淮河流域内1959—2008年110个气象站的逐日降水资料,结合流域1978—2008年农作物旱涝灾害受灾面积数据,基于降水致灾因子与农作物承灾体受损程度等研究,提出旱、涝致灾气候阈值概念,在此基础上分析旱涝灾害发生的时空特征,确定淮河流域合理的旱涝致灾气候阈值区间并建立致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积之间的定量关系。结果表明:① 致灾气候阈值可通过计算发生旱涝事件时间段累积降水量除以1959—2008年相应时段累积降水量的平均值来定义,得到的旱、涝致灾气候阈值在不同尺度下对旱、涝灾害事件均有较好地稳定反映,可满足研究区旱、涝事件分析需求;② 洪涝致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积存在一致的变化趋势,而干旱致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积相关系数高达0.96,构建了基于干旱致灾气候阈值的农作物受灾面积预测模型。 相似文献