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干旱等级具有多级和跃迁性质,有必要提出一种既能反映不同干旱等级变化特征,又能体现干旱总体变化特征的定量评估方法。通过构建干旱等级变化的概率矩阵,引入变化率乘子和变化程度乘子,推导干旱等级变化率和变化程度计算公式,提出干旱等级变化的综合定量评估方法;借助标准化降水蒸散指数和标准化径流指数,应用于东江流域评估月、季和年尺度的气象干旱向水文干旱传递过程中干旱等级变化及水库影响下水文干旱等级变化。结果表明:①气象干旱向水文干旱传递过程中干旱总体变化程度较小,但干旱等级变化明显,月、季和年尺度的总体变化率分别达到了45.9%、46.8%和34.9%;②干旱在10月下降了约1.4个等级,在春季上升了约1.3个等级;③水库径流调节对于缓解月、季尺度水文干旱作用显著,干旱等级总体变化率均约为33%,其中春季干旱程度下降了约1个等级。该方法不仅适用于评估干旱变化,也可应用于评估具有分级特征的其他灾害变化。 相似文献
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从干旱定义与识别、点干旱频率分析和区域干旱频率分析3个方面系统阐述了干旱频率分析研究进展和存在问题,归纳了适用于干旱频率分析的干旱定义,干旱识别存在的主要问题以及区域干旱频率分析研究的3种途径。提出综合利用研究区域水文气象特性、干旱成因、旱情、旱灾,并结合前期的大气环流条件等信息来描述和识别干旱,重点开展对干旱特征变量的理论分布、干旱事件重现期公式和经验频率公式等基本理论的研究,关注区域干旱频率分析,注重对径流、土壤水、地下水和供水系统的干旱特性分析。 相似文献
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为应对全球范围内日益严重的干旱问题,对区域气象干旱相对完整的评估分析模式开展了探讨。提出了从区域气象干旱识别到干旱特征值计算,再到干旱特征多变量分析的3个分析评估步骤。并以渭河流域为例,对研究区域进行了矩形干旱评估单元划分,选取了RDI（Reconnaissance Drought Index）为评估指标对区域内各单元各时段的干旱状态进行了识别,结果与历史记载的干旱年份吻合较好。分别采用了分布拟合、相关系数和Copula函数等统计学方法对区域干旱的干旱特征值（干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱强度和干旱频率）进行了特征分析,得出了一系列的单变量、双变量及多变量特征分析对比结果。通过对各类分布函数的计算和绘图,得到了渭河流域干旱事件发生的条件概率和重现期,形成了一套相对完整的区域干旱评估分析模式。 相似文献
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在高强度人类活动对地球系统产生全方位深刻影响下,干旱灾害已经不再是严格意义上的自然灾害,而成为自然-人为复合灾害。人类活动通过改变大气成分(主要通过温室气体排放)引起全球或区域性水循环过程的变化,导致气象干旱时空特性变化,从而间接影响到水文干旱的形成发展;通过改变河流蓄存状态与水力联系(主要通过蓄、引、提、调水工程)以及用水特性变化,改变河流与地下水系统调蓄功能与产汇流过程,从而直接影响到气象干旱向水文干旱的传递过程以及水文干旱的发展过程。考虑自然和社会水循环之间复杂的相互作用过程,揭示人类活动对干旱形成与发展的影响是干旱研究的重要发展方向。 相似文献
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干旱指标的理论分析与研究展望 总被引：81，自引：3，他引：78
干旱作为最严重的气象灾害之一,已经对我国社会经济和人民生活造成严重影响。尽管关于干旱和干旱指标已有大量研究,但是由于干旱自身的复杂特性和对社会影响的广泛性,干旱指标都是建立在特定的地域和时间范围内,难以准确反映干旱发生的内在机理。为此有必要对干旱定义及国内外主要的干旱指标加以综述和评价,为干旱的监测和评估,特别是为全球变化中的气候-植被关系研究提供方法和依据。将干旱分为 4种类型：气象干旱、农业干旱、水文干旱和社会经济干旱,并对当前国内外主要的干旱指标进行介绍,指出了其适用范围,并在归纳现有干旱指标不足的基础上提出了干旱指标的研究方向和任务。 相似文献
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利用内蒙古及周边地区70个气象站1951~2014年降水数据,采用标准化降水指数等方法,对内蒙古近64年气候干旱时空变化进行分析。结果表明:研究区近64年来除西部年际、春、秋、冬季,中部春、秋季及东部春、冬季气候趋于湿润外,其他均趋于干旱。中、东部年际、植(作)物生长期SPI在2001年和1990年左右发生突变,东部突变后趋于干旱并在2006年左右又发生明显转折后趋于湿润。西部在1960s干旱严重,中、东部在1990s至2000s干旱严重。西部年际SPI由西北向东南、东部由南向北干旱趋势速率呈阶梯状下降,中部干旱趋势速率较西、东部快;植(作)物生长期SPI空间变化与年际一致,但西、中部干旱趋势明显的区域有所扩大。 相似文献
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基于19822010年无定河流域的遥感影像、气象和土地利用数据,利用Priestley-Taylor公式计算出潜在蒸散发,进而得到干旱指数,将各气象因子与干旱指数差值进行叠加、逐象元相关分析,得到了无定河流域19822010年干旱指数的时空变化,并分析了气候和土地利用变化对干旱指数变化的影响。结果显示:（1）1982年、2010年干旱指数分别为2.01和2.13,总体趋势是趋干旱的;（2）干旱指数2.0以下的区域迅速减少,2.15以上的区域明显扩张;（3）干旱指数均呈现增加趋势,显著增加的区域集中于无定河流域中游和下游地区;（4）干旱指数变化同气温、水汽压、净辐射的变化成正相关,同降水量变化成负相关;（5）各种土地利用类型的干旱指数均呈现增长趋势,但是增长的幅度有所不同:林地>耕地>草地>建筑用地>水域>未利用地。（6）土地利用对干旱指数平均值的影响非常微弱,干旱指数的变化主要是由于气候变化导致的。 相似文献
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IPCC AR4多模式对中国地区干旱变化的模拟及预估 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
使用中国地区温度、降水格点观测数据以及多模式集合平均数据,计算了帕尔默干旱指数(Palmer Drought Severity Index),评估了全球气候模式对中国地区1961—2000年干旱变化特征的模拟能力,预估了SRES A1B情景下在2011—2050年干旱的可能变化.结果表明:对于衡量干旱变化特征的干旱频率、持续时间、干旱面积等几个指标,整个中国地区区域平均的模拟值与观测值较为符合;模式能够模拟再现西北地区的干旱变化特征,模拟的干旱程度在华北地区偏弱、长江以南地区偏强.2011—2050年SRES A1B情景下,中国地区表现为持续的干旱化趋势;总体干旱面积和干旱频率持续增加,其中极度干旱的持续增加占主要作用.从EOF分析结果看,未来40a中国地区以整体干旱分布型为主. 相似文献
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Tree-Ring-Based Spring Temperature Patterns over the Past Four Centuries in Western Himalaya 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A network of 12 tree-ring width chronologies of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara) from the western Himalayan region, India, has been used to reconstruct mean spring (March–May) temperature variations back to A.D. 1600. The most conspicuous feature of the temperature reconstruction is the long-term cooling trend since the late 17th century that ended early in the 20th century. The warmest 30-yr mean for the 20th century was recorded during 1945–1974. However, this warming, in the context of the past four centuries is well within the range of natural variability, since warmer springs of greater magnitude occurred in the later part of the 17th century (1662–1691). 相似文献
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Spatial anomalies of tree-ring chronologies can provide information on high-frequency spatial anomalies in paleoclimate representing droughts, colder-than-normal intervals, and other synoptic-scale features. Examples are presented in which 65 tree-ring chronologies are calibrated with spatial anomalies in North American meteorological records of seasonal temperature and precipitation, and with sea-level pressure over the North American and North Pacific sectors. Multivariate transfer functions are obtained that scale and convert the past spatial variations in the tree-ring record into estimates of past variations in the meteorological record. Objective verifications of the reconstructions are obtained using independent meteorological observations for time periods other than those used in the calibration. Historical information or other proxy data from the 19th century are also used for verifying the decadal (or longer) and regional reconstructions and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of the various sources of information. The reconstructed winter and summer temperatures for the United States and southwestern Canada and winter precipitation for the Columbia Basin and California during the 17th through 19th centuries were found to differ from the 20th century means with large-scale variations evident. Extreme winters similar to 1976–1977 are also identified and found to be more frequent in the past, especially in the 17th century. The climatic reconstructions in this time domain are dominated by high-frequency, synoptic-scale fluctuations that can be interpreted as cyclonic-scale changes in atmospheric circulation. Such reconstructions may be useful for testing various climatic models and estimates developed primarily from 20th-century meteorological data against the longer estimated record for the 17th through 19th centuries. 相似文献
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Wilfred H Theakstone 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2010,(2)
The two ice caps of Svartisen,at the latitude of the Arctic Circle in Norway,supply 60 glaciers,ranging in size from >50 to <1 km2.Until the last two decades of the 19th century,the glaciers remained close to their maximum recent(Little Ice Age) size.In response to the prevailing 20th century climate,they have become smaller,but the changes have varied between glaciers.Climatic factors have not been the sole control of the variations.The response times of small,steep glaciers are shorter than those of the l... 相似文献
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Reservoir sedimentation data and sediment yields from Taiwanese rivers show increased soil erosion in response to both 20th century changes in land use and a more recent increase in typhoon frequency and intensity. Decadal variations of up to 5- to 20-fold in suspended-sediment rating curves demonstrate supply-limited transport and correspond to increased sediment delivery from hillslopes due to changes in land use, regional ground shaking during the Chi-Chi earthquake, and post-2000 changes in typhoon frequency and intensity. While accelerated erosion in central Taiwan after the Chi-Chi earthquake has been documented previously, our results show that periods of increased upland erosion also occurred earlier, in response to 20th century changes in land use. Analyses of rainfall records and typhoon frequency for the period 1900–2009 further point to an island-wide increase in erosion rates corresponding to increased typhoon frequency and intensity after 1990. 相似文献
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V. G. Trifonov 《Geotectonics》2013,47(6):418-430
It has been shown for particular seismic zones and the Alpine-Himalayan Orogenic Belt as a whole that in addition to Fedotov cycles, the long-period hypercycles of seismicity are distinguished. Long-period variations were revealed in Syria, in southern and central segments of the El-Ghab Fault Zone of the Dead Sea Transform (EG DST), and at the southwestern end of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). The EG DST demonstrates a ～1800-year hypercycle with a maximum in the 3rd-7th and the 19th-20th centuries A.D. To reveal variations in seismicity in the entire central part of the orogenic belt, we have corrected evidence for historical earthquakes, taking into account the probability of missing events and the area of their regular recording domains. As a result, we displayed maximums of seismic energy release from the mid-17th to mid-20th century A.D.; from the mid-4th to the end of the 6th century; and in the 15th-13th centuries B.C. When interpreting hypercycles, it is important to keep in mind that variation of seismicity in EG DST correlates with variation of the rate of elastic deformation accumulation, probably reflecting variability of the stress-and-strain state in the region and of velocity of tectonic movements in active domains. After additional investigations, hypercycles could be taken into account for to refine the seismic hazard estimate. 相似文献
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全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。 相似文献
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YU LIU HANS W. LINDERHOLM HUIMING SONG QIUFANG CAI QINHUA TIAN JUNYAN SUN DELIANG CHEN ELISABETH SIMELTON KRISTINA SEFTIGEN HUA TIAN RUIYUAN WANG GUANG BAO ZHISHENG AN 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2009,38(2):285-291
The Qinling Mountain range constitutes a critical boundary for climate and vegetation distribution in eastern central mainland China owing to its importance as a geographic demarcation line. In this article, cores from 88 Chinese pines ( Pinus tabulaeformis ) from the southern (MW site) and northern (NWT site) slopes of the Qinling Mountains were used to reconstruct seasonal temperature variations. During the calibration period, significant correlations were found between ring width and the mean temperature from prior September to current April of 0.76 at the southern slope, and between ring width and the mean May–July temperature of 0.67 at the northern slope. The subsequent temperature reconstructions span 1760–2005 for the northern site and 1837–2006 for the southern site. Prior to the mid-20th century, low September–April temperatures were, in general, followed by high May–July temperatures, probably reflecting variations in the winter and summer monsoon. However, since the mid-20th century, both records show trends of a more pronounced increase in September–April temperature on the southern slope. The results provide independent support for the interpretation that recent warming is unusual in nature, coinciding with the observed record. The results compare well with tree-ring based reconstructions from the surrounding regions, suggesting regional signals in the Qinling Mountain reconstructions. 相似文献
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集成中国季风区石笋氧同位素记录的共同变化特征,初步建立了近千年10年平均的东亚夏季风演变序列。在10年尺度以上分析了东亚夏季风演变与其他气候要素变化之间的关系。主要结论有： 1)近千年来东亚夏季风演变可划分为中世纪时期(11～13世纪初期)的季风稍弱阶段,13世纪中后期至14世纪前半叶的季风较强时期,14世纪后半叶至17世纪的季风较弱阶段,自18世纪开始持续约200年的季风再次增强时期,以及20世纪初开始的季风逐渐减弱阶段。2)近千年来东亚大陆或北半球温度的变化虽然对东亚夏季风变化具有一定的影响,但东亚夏季风强度的变化并不总是取决于陆地温度的变化。3)近千年来东亚夏季风的强弱变化与降水变化在低频趋势上有良好的对应关系,在东亚夏季风增强的时期,中国东部降水较多,而在夏季风减弱时,中国东部降水趋于偏少。 相似文献
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R. G. Barry Prof. Dr. 《GeoJournal》1990,20(2):121-127
Data on recent variations in the seasonal extent of snow cover and sea ice, of the terminal position and volume of alpine glaciers, and of ground temperature profiles in permafrost areas are reviewed. The extent of seasonal snow cover and of sea ice has fluctuated irregularly over the last 15–20 years. There is no apparent response to global warming trends. In contrast, most glaciers retreated and thinned from the late 19th century until the 1960s and Alaskan permafrost temperatures have risen 2°–4° C per century. Recently, some glacier advances have been noted. 相似文献
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以钻取自青藏高原南部大枪勇错冰前湖中的1．06m湖芯为研究对象,对沉积物样品进行了粒度、磁化率、元素含量、碳酸盐和总有机碳含量等多项指标的分析测定;在明确了沉积物来源的基础上,分析讨论了各指标变化的影响因素及其具体气候环境指示意义;结合沉积序列放射性同位素定年结果,对湖芯中各指标进行了综合对比分析,恢复了青藏高原南部枪勇错地区近千年来的冰川与气候变化。结果表明：1．06m沉积序列年代跨度为自公元11世纪前后至今的逾千年时间;沉积物主要来源于枪勇冰川融水对冰川上部沉降粉尘颗粒的携带,而沉积物的粒度、磁化率及各组分含量与区域气候条件下枪勇冰川融化强度有密切关系;自公元11世纪至今,青藏高原南部地区环境温度总体呈现波动中逐渐升高的趋势,枪勇冰川随之逐渐融化退缩。具体来说,公元11世纪初,该地区环境温度较低,枪勇冰川融化较弱;公元11世纪中叶至13世纪初,该地区气候温暖,枪勇冰川融化较强;公元14世纪开始至18世纪中叶,该地区进入小冰期,枪勇冰川融化强度显著降低;自公元18世纪中后叶至今,该地区环境温度急剧升高,枪勇冰川呈加剧融化退缩趋势。 相似文献