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1.
详细介绍了Elman神经网络的基本结构和数学模型,同时以地下水动态预测为例,给出用Elman神经网络建立地下水动态预测模型的方法。模型检验结果表明,该模型拟合和预测精度均较高,可应用于地下水动态系统的建模,借此说明Elman网络在地下水动态预报中的可行性,并为Elman网络技术在水文水资源领域的动态模拟应用提供借鉴。 相似文献
2.
目前针对模型结构不确定性的研究方法主要为贝叶斯模型平均方法,而该方法受到模型权重计算困难等影响,应用受限。基于数据驱动的模型结构误差统计学习方法最近得到关注。研究采用高斯过程回归方法对地下水模型结构误差进行统计模拟,并将DREAMzs算法与高斯过程回归相结合,对地下水模型和统计模型的参数同时进行识别。基于此方法,分别以理想岩溶裂隙海水入侵过程和溶质运移柱体实验为例,进行地下水数值模拟及预测结果的不确定性分析。相对于不考虑模型结构误差条件的不确定性分析,结果表明,考虑结构误差之后,能够明显减少参数识别过程中的参数补偿影响,且能显著提高模型的预测性能。因此,基于高斯过程回归的模型结构不确定性分析可以一定程度控制地下水数值模拟的不确定性,提高模型预测可靠性。 相似文献
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本文介绍了运用溶质迁移模型预测化工区地下水质污染和用统计模型预测化工区区域井水污染,为制定一个防治地下水污染的整体规划提出了科学依据,对控制现有的污染程度和范围有重要的意义。 相似文献
4.
新围涂区土壤脱盐与地下水淡化预测分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以浙江玉环县漩门二期水库蓄淡工程背景,从土壤盐分统计预报的基本方法——数理统计法出发来预测涂区土壤的脱盐速度,建立了对数函数数学模型并进行了模型的检验与讨论,得出适用于该滩涂湿地涂区的土壤脱盐量公式并进行了预测计算。在此基础上,采用相类似的对数函数拟合的方法对涂区土壤浅层地下水淡化速度进行了预测分析。 相似文献
5.
地下水数学模型是用数学方法表述,经过概化地下水系统,在系统分析地下水补、径、排的基础上,对地下水预测分析的一种有效方法.随着南干渠灌区建成后水量的变化,本文通过选用适宜的数学模型,对灌区地下水资源量进行模拟计算,根据模拟计算结果对灌区地下水升幅进行预测,对灌区生态环境的变化做出评价. 相似文献
6.
滑坡稳定性与地下水水位变化有密切的关系,准确预测滑坡地下水位的波动过程,能有效地开展滑坡预警并降低成本。利用中林滑坡的监测数据,建立降雨量和地下水水位的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,能突破隐藏裂隙的优先流难以刻画的局限,确定降雨引起地下水水位变化的滞后时间、影响系数和有效时段。通过统计在不同降雨强度下地下水水位变幅的变异系数,分析影响滑坡地下水水位的有效降雨量阈值,并对ARDL模型进行修正。将模型预测值与实测值进行对比,验证模型对滑坡地下水水位预测的有效性。研究表明,修正后的模型能更好地预测强降雨条件下滑坡地下水水位迅速涨落的过程。 相似文献
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岩溶地下水统计预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
康风群 《水文地质工程地质》1988,(6)
本文提出利用统计方法对水文地质勘探过程中收集到的大量观察资料,进行整理,利用电子计算机为手段进行计算,定量的掌握岩溶含水层富水性在空间变化趋势。提高富水性分布和预测涌水量的精度。现以某岩溶地下水区为例将岩溶地下水统计预测方法介绍如下: 相似文献
9.
本文应用二维流地下水数值模型计算方法对某水源地地下水水位进行开采预测,介绍地下水数值模型的建立和评价过程,从而为拟建水源地正确确定开采方案提供科学依据。 相似文献
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针对研究区地下水系统结构等资料不完备,本文基于质量守恒原理和微积分原理,建立了地下水水位统计预测模型和水位延迟模型,并在焦作矿区得到验证。焦作矿区岩溶地下水对于降水响应结果表明,当延迟时间为10个月时,岩溶地下水水位与降水的相关系数最大,为0.83,而延时2个月和5个月时,相关系数分别只有0.71和0.78;模型观测孔水位预测结果表明,相关系数超过0.9的观测孔达60 %,相关系数超过0.8的观测孔则高达95 %;模型水位影响因素分析结果显示,在降雨、矿坑排水、地下水蒸发3个影响因素中,煤矿区岩溶地下水水位动态对降雨量响应最敏感,说明降雨量,尤其是长期稳定的补给量是地下水水位最主要的影响因素。该类模型适用性强,简易方便,有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
12.
地下水水位时间序列中的混沌特征 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
利用相空间重构技术、G -P算法以及Wolf提出的从单变量中提取Lyapunov指数的方法 ,分别计算了太原盆地 4组地下水水位时间序列的关联维数和Lyapunov指数。结果揭示在自然状态下 ,太原盆地某些孔隙潜水和孔隙承压水水位变化存在明显的混沌特征。这不仅为以后建立水位预测模型提供了理论依据 ,并且也为运用分形理论研究地质参数的时空变异性以及含水层结构的自相似性提供了进一步的支持。 相似文献
13.
Jing Hao Yongxiang Zhang Yangwen Jia Hao Wang Cunwen Niu Yongde Gan Yicheng Gong 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(6):144
Depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone media, and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer (DRASTIC) model based on a geographic information system (GIS) is the most widely adopted model for the evaluation of groundwater vulnerability. However, the model had its own disadvantages in various aspects. In this work, several methods and the technologies have been introduced to improve on the traditional model. The type of the aquifer was replaced by the thickness of the aquifer, and the index of topography was removed. The indexes of the exploitation of the groundwater and the type of land use that reflected the special vulnerability were added to the system. Furthermore, considering the wideness of the study area, the fixed weights in the DRASTIC model were not suitable. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and an entropy weight (Ew) method were introduced to calculate the weights of parameters. Then, the Spearman Rho correlation coefficients between IVI and the Nemerow synthetical pollution index (NI) of the groundwater quality were significantly improved, after the four steps of modification. The level differences with little gaps between Nemerow comprehensive pollution indexes and groundwater vulnerability occupied the proportion of the area from 75.68 to 84.04%, and finally, a single-parameter sensitivity analysis for the two models was used to compute the effective weights of these parameters. By comparison, the DRMSICEL model seems to perform better than the DRASTIC model in the study area. And the results show discrepancies between the vulnerability indices and groundwater quality as indicated by existence of vulnerable areas with bad water quality and vice versa. 相似文献
14.
变异条件下内蒙古呼包平原地下水演化趋势 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
重点探讨气候变异对内蒙古呼包平原地下水资源、地下水流场和动态的影响。在介绍呼包平原水文地质条件的基础上,运用地下水模型软件PMWIN 5.1建立了研究区双层地下水流模型,并根据1998年地下水动态观测和统测资料对模型进行识别。通过对近51 a降水量的分析,确定将连续出现的2个特枯年作为地下水的变异条件,运用地下水模型对变异条件下地下水状态进行模拟,结果表明：2年间对地下水的严重超采,使地下水亏空量达75 296.34 万m3,潜水和承压含水层的地下水位大幅度下降,潜水位最大下降4 m左右,承压水位最大下降17 m左右;漏斗中心主要集中在开采量大的呼和浩特和包头市区。 相似文献
15.
为了给吉林省白城市地下水资源合理开发利用提供科学依据,运用地下水模拟技术对白城市地下水位变化趋势进行预测。首先在分析研究区水文地质条件的基础上建立水文地质概念模型,将含水系统概化为潜水含水层、越流层和承压含水层,并确定了系统的边界条件。运用地下水模型软件(GMS)对研究区地下水流进行了模拟和预测,预测结果表明在扩大开采的情况下,潜水含水层水位总体下降约1~2 m;随着开采量的增加和时间的增长,含水层在洮儿河扇形地、洮南、研究区东北部、镇赉、大安南部等地相继出现疏干现象,最大降幅达5~6 m。承压含水层在大安南部、镇赉北部等地水位下降较大,但是流场整体降幅不大,总体降幅在0.5 m以内。最后提出了地下水合理开发利用建议。 相似文献
16.
Water sustainability model for estimation of groundwater availability in Kemuning district,Riau-Indonesia 
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下载免费PDF全文 Muhammad Juandi 《地下水科学与工程》2020,8(1):20-29
There are rising interests in the utility of groundwater in various aspects,which is capable of triggering problematic issues.The excessive exploitation for anthropologic uses,without regards to aquifer capacity,will decreases the water table as well as capacity of groundwater in the aquifer.This research was aimed to provide aquifer model of underground water by consideration of various environmental factors,with the propensity of being modeled,in an attempt to predict groundwater conditions in subsequent years.The purpose of this research was to forecast water requirements,availability,as well as three-dimensional model of groundwater depth in Kemuning,Indragiri Hilir Regency-Indonesia between 2015 and 2022.Furthermore,various environmental factors,from aquifer profiles to anthropologic demand,are taken into account in the evaluated model,including water requirements,encompassing recharge and aquifer parameters,which consists of storativity and transmissivity.From anthropologic side are domestic requirements,trade,public facilities,agriculture,and livestock.The results show that groundwater availability in Kemuning is to be safe condition,and average difference is 1.06×108 m3/yr.The coefficient of storativity and transmissivity are 16.514 m2/day and 9897.26 m2/day,respectively,while the average depth was recorded as 2.8965 m to 10.4927 m. 相似文献
17.
This paper describes the implementation of process-based models reflecting relative groundwater nitrate vulnerability of the
shallow alluvial Lower Savinja Valley (LSV) aquifer in Slovenia. A spatially explicit identification of the potentially vulnerable
priority areas within groundwater bodies at risk from a chemical point of view is being required for cost-effective measures
and monitoring planning. The shallow LSV unconfined aquifer system consists of high-permeable Holocene and middle- to low-permeable
Pleistocene gravel and sand, with a maximum thickness of about 30 m, mainly covered by shallow eutric fluvisoils or variously
deep eutric cambisoil. The hydrogeological parameters, e.g. the depth to the groundwater, hydrological role of the topographic
slope, etc. usually used in different point count schemes are, in the case of the lowland aquifer and shallow groundwater,
spatially very uniform with low variability. Furthermore, the parametric point count methods are generally not able to illustrate
and analyze important physical processes, and validation of the results is difficult and expensive. Instead of a parametric
point count scheme, we experimentally used the Arc-WofE extension for weights-of-evidence (WofE) modelling. All measurement
locations with a concentration higher than the value of 20 mg NO3
− per litre of groundwater have been considered as training points (173), and the three process-based models generalized output
layers of groundwater recharge (GROWA), nitrate leached from the soil profile (SWAT) and groundwater flow velocity (FEFLOW),
served as evidential themes. The technique is based on the Bayesian idea of phenomena occurrences probability before (prior
probability) and after consideration of any evidential themes (posterior probability), which were measured by positive and
negative weights as an indication of the association between a phenomena and a prediction pattern. The response theme values
describe the relative probability that a 100 × 100 m spatial unit will have a groundwater nitrate concentration higher than
the training points’ limit values with regard to prior probability value. The lowest probability of groundwater nitrate occurrence
is in the parts of the LSV aquifer, which are known as anoxic condition areas with very likely denitrification processes.
The cross-validation of the dissolved oxygen and dissolved nitrate response theme confirmed the accuracy of the groundwater
nitrate prediction. The WofE model results very clearly indicate regional groundwater nitrate distribution and enable spatial
prediction of the probability for increased groundwater nitrate concentration in order to plan the groundwater nitrate reduction
measures and optimize the programme for monitoring the effects of these measures. 相似文献
18.
Accurate and reliable prediction of shallow groundwater level is a critical component in water resources management. Two nonlinear models, WA–ANN method based on discrete wavelet transform (WA) and artificial neural network (ANN) and integrated time series (ITS) model, were developed to predict groundwater level fluctuations of a shallow coastal aquifer (Fujian Province, China). The two models were testified with the monitored groundwater level from 2000 to 2011. Two representative wells are selected with different locations within the study area. The error criteria were estimated using the coefficient of determination (R 2), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E), and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The best model was determined based on the RMSE of prediction using independent test data set. The WA–ANN models were found to provide more accurate monthly average groundwater level forecasts compared to the ITS models. The results of the study indicate the potential of WA–ANN models in forecasting groundwater levels. It is recommended that additional studies explore this proposed method, which can be used in turn to facilitate the development and implementation of more effective and sustainable groundwater management strategies. 相似文献
19.
This study evaluates the alternative conceptual models for groundwater modelling. A true model was created with a synthetic alluvial fan-plain hydrogeological framework. Various alternative conceptual models were evaluated for groundwater flow simulations. The first alternative model is a single aquifer layer model; the second alternative model is a 3-layer aquifer model; and the third model is a 5-layer model consisting of 3 aquifers separated by 2 aquitards. All models could fit very well to the observations with optimized values of hydraulic conductivities. However, the single aquifer layer model can only compute water balance components with good accuracy. The 3-layer aquifer model can be used for water balance computation and groundwater head simulation with small errors. The 5-layer model is capable of simulating water budget, groundwater head distribution and travel times with high accuracy. Multi-model analysis found only the 3rd alternative model superior. 相似文献
20.
Sensitivity Analysis of a Combined Groundwater Flow and Solute Transport Model Using Local-Grid Refinement: A Case Study 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Combining groundwater flow models with solute transport models represents a common challenge in groundwater resources assessments and contaminant transport modeling. Groundwater flow models are usually constructed at somewhat larger scales (involving a coarser discretization) to include natural boundary conditions. They are commonly calibrated using observed groundwater levels and flows (if available). The groundwater solute transport models may be constructed at a smaller scale with finer discretization than the flow models in order to accurately delineate the solute source and the modeled target, to capture any heterogeneity that may affect contaminant migration, and to minimize numerical dispersion while still maintaining a reasonable computing time. The solution that is explored here is based on defining a finer grid subdomain within a larger coarser domain. The local-grid refinement (LGR) implemented in the Modular 3D finite-difference ground-water flow model (MODFLOW) code has such a provision to simulate groundwater flow in two nested grids: a higher-resolution sub-grid within a coarse grid. Under the premise that the interface between both models was well defined, a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was performed whereby the effect of a parameter perturbation in a coarser-grid model on transport predictions using a higher-resolution grid was quantified. This approach was tested for a groundwater flow and solute transport analysis in support of a safety evaluation of the future Belgian near-surface radioactive waste disposal facility. Our reference coarse-grid groundwater flow model was coupled with a smaller fine sub-grid model in two different ways. While the reference flow model was calibrated using observed groundwater levels at a scale commensurate with that of the coarse-grid model, the fine sub-grid model was used to run a solute transport simulation quantifying concentrations in a hypothetical well nearby the disposal facility. When LGR coupling was compared to a one-way coupling, LGR was found to provide a smoother flow solution resulting in a more CPU-efficient transport solution. Parameter sensitivities performed with the groundwater flow model resulted in sensitivities at the head observation locations. These sensitivities identified the recharge as the most sensitive parameter, with the hydraulic conductivity of the upper aquifer as the second most sensitive parameter in regard to calculated groundwater heads. Based on one-percent sensitivity maps, the spatial distribution of the observations with the highest sensitivities is slightly different for the upper aquifer hydraulic conductivity than for recharge. Sensitivity analyses were further performed to assess the prediction scaled sensitivities for hypothetical contaminant concentrations using the combined groundwater flow and solute transport models. Including all pertinent parameters into the sensitivity analysis identified the hydraulic conductivity of the upper aquifer as the most sensitive parameter with regard to the prediction of contaminant concentrations. 相似文献