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1.
Aaron P. Potito Craig A. Woodward Michelle McKeown David W. Beilman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,52(4):385-404
Ireland provides a unique setting for the study of past climates, as its climate is dominated by westerly airflow from the North Atlantic and readily responsive to changes in North Atlantic circulation patterns. Although there has been substantial research on Ireland’s past environments, quantitative palaeolimnological research, especially chironomid-based research, has been lacking. In order to further develop chironomid-based palaeolimnological investigations, a calibration set was constructed to determine the dominant environmental controls on modern chironomids in western Ireland. Chironomid subfossils were collected from surface sediments of 50 lakes. The lakes were characterised with 36 environmental variables, including physical attributes, lake water characteristics, lake sediment characteristics and land cover within each catchment. In this exploratory study, no specific environmental variable was targeted and lakes were chosen to span gradients of latitude, elevation, depth and trophic status. Redundancy analysis showed that six environmental variables—mean July air temperature, lake depth, dissolved organic carbon, and percentage catchment land cover of agriculture, peat bog and scrubland—captured a large and statistically significant portion of the variance in the chironomid data. July temperature and agricultural land cover were the most dominant environmental variables, with July temperature proving the most suitable for inference model development. A classical weighted-averaging model was developed to estimate July air temperature, with a coefficient of determination (r jack 2 ) of 0.60 and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.57 °C. Results suggest that summer temperature is the dominant influence on chironomid distribution across a wide variety of lake types, and the relatively small RMSEP should allow for more accurate reconstructions of Ireland’s relatively subdued Holocene temperature fluctuations. 相似文献
2.
A.F. Lotter P.G. Appleby R. Bindler J.A. Dearing J.-A. Grytnes W. Hofmann C. Kamenik A. Lami D.M. Livingstone C. Ohlendorf N. Rose M. Sturm 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,28(1):111-127
Sediment cores spanning the last two centuries were taken in Hagelseewli, a high-elevation lake in the Swiss Alps. Contiguous 0.5 cm samples were analysed for biological remains, including diatoms, chironomids, cladocera, chrysophyte cysts, and fossil pigments. In addition, sedimentological and geochemical variables such as loss-on-ignition, total carbon, nitrogen, sulphur, grain-size and magnetic mineralogy were determined. The results of these analyses were compared to a long instrumental air temperature record that was adapted to the elevation of Hagelseewli by applying mean monthly lapse rates.During much of the time, the lake is in the shadow of a high cliff to the south, so that the lake is ice-covered during much of the year and thus decoupled from climatic forcing. Lake biology is therefore influenced more by the duration of ice-cover than by direct temperature effects during the short open-water season. Long periods of ice-cover result in anoxic water conditions and dissolution of authigenic calcites, leading to carbonate-free sediments.The diversity of chironomid and cladoceran assemblages is extremely low, whereas that of diatom and chrysophyte cyst assemblages is much higher. Weak correlations were observed between the diatom and chrysophyte cyst assemblages on the one hand and summer or autumn air temperatures on the other, but the proportion of variance explained is low, so that air temperature alone cannot account for the degree of variation observed in the paleolimnological record.Analyses of mineral magnetic parameters, spheroidal carbonaceous particles and lead suggest that atmospheric pollution has had a significant effect on the sediments of Hagelseewli, but little effect on the water quality as reflected in the lake biota. 相似文献
3.
The relationship between surface-sediment cladoceran and chironomid communities to lake depth was analysed in 53 lakes distributed across timberline in northern Fennoscandia using multivariate statistical approaches. The study sites are small and bathymerically simple, with water depth ranging from 0.85-27.0 m (mean 6.36 m). Maximum lake depth was the most important factor in explaining the cladoceran distributions and the second most important factor in explaining the chironomid distributions in these subarctic lakes, as assessed on the basis of a series of constrained RDAs, Monte Carlo permutation tests, and variance partitioning. Quantitative inference models for maximum lake depth were created for both groups of animals. Well-performing calibration functions for predicting lake depth were obtained in each case using linear partial least squares (PLS) regression and calibration, weighted averaging (WA) with an 'inverse' deshrinking regression, and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). Quantitative reconstructions of lake level fluctuations should be possible from cladoceran and chironomid core data with a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP), as estimated by jack-knifing, of about 1.6-3.0 m. 相似文献
4.
Lakes regulate the water and heat exchange between the ground and the atmosphere on different temporal and spatial scales. However, studies of the lake effect in the high-altitude Tibetan Plateau(TP) rarely have been performed until recently, and little attention has been paid to modelling of frozen lakes. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF v. 3.6.1) is employed to conduct three numerical experiments in the Ngoring Lake Basin(the original experiment, an experiment with a tuned model, and a no-lake experiment) to investigate the influences of parameter optimization on the lake simulation and of the high-altitude lake on the regional climate. After the lake depth, the roughness lengths, and initial surface temperature are corrected in the model, the simulation of the air temperature is distinctly improved. In the experiment using a tuned model, the simulated sensible-heat flux(H) is clearly improved, especially during periods of ice melting(from late spring to early summer) and freezing(late fall). The improvement of latent-heat flux(LE) is mainly manifested by the sharp increase in the correlation coefficient between simulation and observation, whereas the improvement in the average value is small. The optimization of initial surface temperature shows the most prominent effect in the first year and distinctly weakens after a freezing period. After the lakes become grassland in the model, the daytime temperature clearly increases during the freezing and melting periods; but the nocturnal cooling appears in other stages, especially from September to October. The annual mean H increases by 6.4 times in the regions of the Ngoring Lake and the Gyaring Lake, and the LE declines by 56.2%. The sum of H and LE increases from 71.2 W/m2(with lake) to 84.6 W/m2(no lake). For the entire simulation region, the sum of H and LE also increases slightly. After the lakes are removed, the air temperature increases significantly from June to September over the area corresponding to the two lakes, and an abnormal convergence field appears; at the same time, the precipitation clearly increases over the two lakes and surrounding areas. 相似文献
5.
Chironomid-based palaeotemperature estimates for northeast Finland during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
S. Engels S. J. P. Bohncke J. A. A. Bos S. J. Brooks O. Heiri K. F. Helmens 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,40(1):49-61
Quantitative palaeotemperature estimates for the earlier part of Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS-) 3 are inferred from subfossil
chironomid remains. The high-latitudinal study site of Sokli, northeast Finland, provides for a unique lacustrine deposit
covering the earlier part of OIS-3, and the chironomid remains found in the sediments show that a shallow lake with a diverse
fauna was present at the study site throughout the record. Using a Norwegian calibration data set as a modern analogue, mean
July air temperatures are reconstructed. The chironomid-inferred July air temperatures are surprisingly high, reaching values
similar to the current temperature at the study site. Other proxies that were applied to the sediments included the analysis
of botanical and zoological macro-remains, and our results concur with temperature estimates derived from climate indicator
taxa. Summer temperatures for interstadial conditions, reconstructed with climate models, are as high as our proxy-based palaeotemperatures. 相似文献
6.
MODIS-based estimation of air temperature of the Tibetan Plateau 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The immense and towering Tibetan Plateau acts as a heating source and, thus, deeply shapes the climate of the Eurasian continent and even the whole world. However, due to the scarcity of meteorological observation stations and very limited climatic data, little is quantitatively known about the heating effect and temperature pattern of the Tibetan Plateau. This paper collected time series of MODIS land surface temperature （LST） data, together with meteorological data of 137 stations and ASTER GDEM data for 2001-2007, to estimate and map the spatial distribution of monthly mean air temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring areas. Time series analysis and both ordinary linear regression （OLS） and geographical weighted regression （GWR） of monthly mean air temperature （Ta） with monthly mean land surface temperature （Ts） were conducted. Regression analysis shows that recorded Ta is rather closely related to Ts, and that the GWR estimation with MODIS Ts and altitude as independent variables, has a much better result with adjusted R 2 〉 0.91 and RMSE = 1.13-1.53℃ than OLS estimation. For more than 80% of the stations, the Ta thus retrieved from Ts has residuals lower than 2℃. Analysis of the spatio-temporal pattern of retrieved Ta data showed that the mean temperature in July （the warmest month） at altitudes of 4500 m can reach 10℃. This may help explain why the highest timberline in the Northern Hemisphere is on the Tibetan Plateau. 相似文献
7.
1960 年以来青藏高原气温变化研究进展 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
青藏高原是中国最大、世界海拔最高的高原,它对全球气候系统存在显著影响.本文对青藏高原自1960年以来的气温变化特征及其影响因素的研究进行了概述与总结.近50 年来,青藏高原气温明显上升,经历了一个冷期和一个暖期,气温在20 世纪80 年代发生突变,整体呈现前低后高波动上升的趋势;最低气温和最高气温呈不对称的线性增温趋势,最低气温的上升速率要比最高气温快得多;而极端事件频率、强度也有所变化,其中低温事件大大减少,高温事件则明显增加;各类界限温度的积温以及持续日数等生物温度指标也都显著增加.在空间分布上,青藏高原气温呈现出整体一致增暖,并且有西高东低、南北反相的变化形态.影响青藏高原气温变化的因素有很多,主要包括天文因素、高原内部气象要素以及外部环流影响等. 相似文献
8.
The development of chironomid-based air temperature inference models in high latitude regions often relies on limited spatial coverage of meteorological data and/or on punctual measurements of water temperature at the time of sampling. The use of simple linear regression to relate air temperature and latitude was until recently the best method to characterize the air temperature gradient along a latitudinal gradient. However, recent studies have used high-resolution gridded climate data to develop new chironomid-based air temperature inference models. This innovative approach has, however, never been further analyzed to test its reliability. This study presents a method using ArcGIS® to extract air temperatures from a high-resolution global gridded climate data set (New et al. 2002) and to incorporate these new data in a variety of chironomid-based air temperature inference models to test their performance. Results suggest that this method is reliable and produces better estimates of air temperature and will be helpful in the development of further quantitative air temperature inference models in remote areas. 相似文献
9.
基于MODIS数据的青藏高原气温与增温效应估算 总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10
利用2001-2007 年MODIS地表温度数据、137 个气象观测台站数据和ASTERGDEM数据, 采用普通线性回归分析方法(OLS)及地理加权回归分析方法(GWR), 研究了高原月均地表温度与气温的相关关系, 最终选择精度较高的GWR分析方法, 建立了高原气温与地表温度、海拔高度的回归模型。各月气温GWR回归模型的决定系数(Adjusted R2) 都达到了0.91 以上(0.91~0.95), 标准误差(RMSE) 介于1.16~1.58℃;约70%以上的台站各月残差介于-1.5~1.5℃之间, 80%以上的台站的残差介于-2~2℃之间。根据该模型, 估算了青藏高原气温, 并在此基础上, 将高原及周边地区7 月份月均气温转换到4500 m和5000 m海拔高度上, 对比分析高原内部相对于外围地区的增温效应。研究结果表明:(1) 利用GWR方法, 结合地面台站的观测数据和MODIS Ts、DEM等, 对高原气温估算的精度高于以往普通回归分析模型估算的精度(RMSE=2~3℃), 精度可以提高到1.58℃;(2) 高原夏半年海拔5000 m左右的高山区气温能达到0℃以上, 尤其是7 月份, 海拔4000~5500 m的高山区的气温仍能达到10℃左右, 为山地森林的发育提供了温度条件, 使高原成为北半球林线分布最高的地方;(3) 高原的增温效应非常突出, 初步估算, 在相同的海拔高度上高原内部气温要比外围地区高6~10℃。 相似文献
10.
本文使用南极长城湾 1 987年 3月至 1 988年 2月连续观测资料 (每小时观测一次 ) ,对该海湾底层海水温度的季节变化特征进行了分析研究 相似文献
11.
青藏高原为全球气候变化最为敏感的区域之一,探讨该地区土壤水分变化对近地面气温的影响将为青藏高原水汽循环研究及该地区对周边气候与环境的影响研究提供重要理论支撑。利用NCEP-CFSR数据集,基于土壤水分对近地面气温的影响机理,揭示了青藏高原不同季节、不同植被分区下土壤水分时空分异规律、土壤水分与蒸发率的响应与耦合状态及土壤水分通过蒸散发过程对近地面气温的影响。结果表明：① 不同季节下青藏高原土壤水分空间分布基本一致,除西北地区和喜马拉雅山脉外,整体呈现由东南向西北递减趋势,青藏高原地区存在干旱区变湿,湿润区变干的空间特征;② 青藏高原大部分区域土壤水分处于干湿过渡状态,其中青藏高原南部和东南部地区全年处于干湿过渡状态,而柴达木盆地几乎全年处于干旱状态;③ 近地面气温对土壤水分的响应在冬季最弱,在夏季最强且空间差异较小,其中在冬、春、夏季为负反馈,另外不同植被覆盖区近地面气温对土壤水分的敏感性差异很大。此项研究对于进一步探讨青藏高原地区陆气耦合状态及变化环境下的区域水汽循环及其效应具有重要理论意义。 相似文献
12.
Peter Roseacute;n Roland Hall Tom Korsman Ingemar Renberg 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2000,24(2):109-123
The relationships between diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) in surface sediments of lakes and summer air temperature, pH and total organic carbon concentration (TOC) were explored along a steep climatic gradient in northern Sweden to provide a tool to infer past climate conditions from sediment cores. The study sites are in an area with low human impact and range from boreal forest to alpine tundra. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) constrained to mean July air temperature and pH clearly showed that diatom community composition was different between lakes situated in conifer-, mountain birch- and alpine-vegetation zones. As a consequence, diatoms and multivariate ordination methods can be used to infer past changes in treeline position and dominant forest type. Quantitative inference models were developed to estimate mean July air temperature, pH and TOC from sedimentary diatom assemblages using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. Relationships between diatoms and mean July air temperature were independent of lake-water pH, TOC, alkalinity and maximum depth. The results demonstrated that diatoms in lake sediments can provide useful and independent quantitative information for estimating past changes in mean July air temperature (R2
jack = 0.62, RMSEP = 0.86 °C; R2 and root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) based on jack-knifing), pH (R2
jack = 0.61, RMSEP = 0.30) and TOC (R2
jack = 0.49, RMSEP = 1.33 mg l-1). The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between diatom community composition and mean July air temperature, but the relationships to pH and TOC are also discussed. 相似文献
13.
青藏高原春季植被变化特征及其对夏季气温的影响 总被引：9，自引：6，他引：3
分析1982~2001年NDVI和青藏高原地区台站气温资料,得到结论:近20年来春季高原植被总体呈明显的增加趋势,其中以高原北部、西北部和南部日喀则附近地区的植被增加最明显。高原NDVI与季节同期和滞后的气温以正相关为主。春季NDVI与滞后0~3季气温都表现为正相关,尤以高原春季NDVI与夏季气温的相关更为显著。高原春季NDVI如果处于异常偏小(或偏大) 状态,同时高原的北部和中西部是较明显的NDVI负距平(或正距平)分布时,则高原地区夏季气温具有整体上(或大部分地区)偏低(或偏高)的倾向,平均气温和最高气温在高原西部和北部表现明显,对最低气温的影响的关键区位于高原的中南部和东南部。 相似文献
14.
中国西北近50 a来气温变化特征的进一步研究 总被引：42，自引：14，他引：28
利用国家气象信息中心最新整编的西北地区135站1960—2005年逐月资料,通过对该地区温度变化特征的分析,在前人研究成果的基础上,进一步揭示出了近50 a来西北地区气温变化的一些新特征: ①西北地区的年和各季节均表现为一致的增温趋势,但陕西南部在夏季出现降温的趋势。冬季和秋季,从塔里木盆地西侧到河套地区,在35°—40°N的带状区域内是增温趋势最强的区域。西北区域整体年平均气温的变化幅度达0.37℃/10a,冬季增温可达0.56℃/10a。无论是年或四季平均的增温率,西北地区都比全国平均的要高。②西北地区冬季和年的平均气温在20世纪80年代中期以后开始表现为明显上升趋势;但春季、夏季和秋季均到了20世纪90年代中期以后,才开始出现气温明显上升的趋势。③西北地区年气温异常首先表现为全区一致的变化型,然后依次为南北相反变化型和陕南气温变化与其他地区不同的独特性。且整体一致型变化近50 a来呈加强态势,而陕南与西北其他地区气温非同步变化的趋势在逐渐缩小。④西北地区近50 a来年气温可分为南疆-高原区、北疆区、西北东部区3个主要空间异常气候区。且从长期倾向来看,南疆-高原区和北疆区有明显的上升变化倾向,西北东部区则表现为波动式的上升趋势。 相似文献
15.
Reconstructing air temperature at eleven remote alpine and arctic lakes in Europe from 1781 to 1997 AD 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Pristine and sensitive environments, such as remote alpine and arctic lakes, are particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. However, these remote environments do not have sufficiently long instrumental climate records to support studies on contemporary climate change. The issue of the scarcity of instrumental climate data at remote regions is addressed by reconstructing monthly mean air temperatures from 1781 to 1997 AD at eleven remote alpine and arctic lakes in Europe, as part of the MOuntain LAke Research (MOLAR) project. Stepwise multiple regression is applied to establish linear transfer functions of temperatures between each of eleven upland records and twenty homogenised long lowland records. Twelve monthly transfer functions are obtained for each lake. The skill of these transfer functions is found to range typically between 60 and 99%. The lower skill values generally correspond to winter months. The temperature reconstructions obtained using the transfer functions need to be corrected with vertical temperature gradients. Air-temperature lapse rates were obtained for each lake region by spatial interpolation of radiosonde air-temperature data (1990–1997). The resulting reconstructions at each lake were checked using air-temperature data (1996–1997) from automatic weather stations installed at the lakes during the MOLAR project. We estimate the typical reconstruction errors to be about 1.3 °C for low-sun months and about 0.98 °C for high-sun months. Trend analyses on the reconstructed annual mean air temperatures at the lakes show two distinct types of trends for the 19th and 20th centuries. During the period 1801–1900, the western European lakes show no significant trend whereas annual mean air temperatures at the eastern European lakes decrease significantly. The period 1901–1997 presents a warming trend at all but the Fennoscandian lakes. Our results are in good agreement with previous studies on the spatial distribution and magnitude of temperature change in Europe. Principal component analysis performed on the reconstructed annual mean air temperature reveals two different regimes of trends for the past two centuries. It also allows a regional clustering of the inter-annual variability of air temperature at the lakes to be identified. 相似文献
16.
B. Lang A. S. Medeiros A. Worsley A. Bedford S. J. Brooks 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2018,59(4):397-410
Reliable estimates of Holocene temperatures are important for understanding past climate dynamics, the response of biota to climate change, and validating climate models. Chironomids in lake sediment cores are used widely to quantify past summer temperatures, for which high-latitude and/or high-altitude lakes, remote from human influence, are usually considered appropriate. Temperature inferences from lowland lakes are likely influenced by other variables, specifically eutrophication and industrial pollution, but their reliability has never been tested. We used a Norwegian chironomid-based transfer function (r 2 = 0.91; RMSEP = 1.01 °C) to infer mean July air temperature over the last 200 years, using chironomid assemblages in a core collected from a polluted, nutrient-enriched lake at Speke Hall, Liverpool, England. The chironomid-inferred temperatures correlate significantly with the local instrumental temperature record and follow long-term national temperature trends. These results show that chironomids can be used to produce reliable estimates of past mean July air temperature, even when other variables have also influenced the composition of the chironomid community. These findings underline the value of chironomids as sensitive and reliable quantitative proxies for summer temperature. 相似文献
17.
A suite of surface sediment samples from three Icelandic lakes was analysed for subfossil chironomid head capsules, and a
quantitative July air temperature inference model was applied to the data to investigate whether there was significant variability
among samples taken from a lake. Ordination and simple regression methods were used to analyse the relationships between environmental
and sedimentological variables and the chironomid assemblages and inferred temperature data. Substrate was the most important
influence on the chironomid assemblages and inferred temperatures, while water depth at the sampling location had no relationship
with the chironomid-inferred temperatures. Within-lake variability of the chironomid assemblages and their inferred temperatures,
however, were not significant statistically, suggesting that in lakes of western and northwest Iceland within-lake sampling
location has no effect on the data obtained, and therefore on training set samples. 相似文献
18.
Environmental controls on modern chironomid faunas from NW Iceland and implications for reconstructing climate change 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Reconstructing climate change quantitatively over millennial timescales is crucial for understanding the processes that affect
the climate system. One of the best methods for producing high resolution, low error, quantitative summer air temperature
reconstructions is through chironomid analyses. We analysed over 50 lakes from NW and W Iceland covering a range of environmental
gradients in order to test whether the distribution of the Icelandic chironomid fauna was driven by summer temperature, or
whether other environmental factors were more dominant. A range of analyses showed the main environmental controls on chironomid
communities to be substrate (identified through loss-on-ignition and carbon content) and mean July air temperature, although
other factors such as lake depth and lake area were also important. The nature of the Icelandic landscape, with numerous volcanic
centres (many of which are covered by ice caps) that produce large quantities of ash, means that relative lake carbon content
and summer air temperature do not co-vary, as they often do in other chironomid datasets within the Arctic as well as more
temperate environments. As the chironomid–environment relationships are thus different in Iceland compared to other chironomid
training sets, we suggest that using an Icelandic model is most appropriate for reconstructing past environmental change from
fossil Icelandic datasets. Analogue matching of Icelandic fossil chironomid datasets with the Icelandic training set and another
European chironomid training set support this assertion. Analyses of a range of chironomid-inferred temperature transfer functions
suggest the best to be a two component WA-PLS model with r
2
jack = 0.66 and RMSEP = 1.095°C. Using this model, chironomid-inferred temperature reconstructions of early Holocene Icelandic
sequences show the magnitude of temperature change compared to contemporary temperatures to be similar to other NW European
chironomid sequences, suggesting that the predictive power of the model is good. 相似文献
19.
随着全球变暖和社会经济发展,中国湖泊富营养化情况时有发生,迫切需要对中国湖泊的浮游植物生物量进行有效监测。本文选择了中国756个面积超过10 km2的湖泊进行研究,基于Google Earth Engine（GEE）云端运算平台,反演2003—2018年间叶绿素a（chl-a）浓度数据,以此来分析研究各个湖泊的营养状态及其时空变化,探索了中国五大湖区内湖泊各季节与年均chl-a浓度时空分布特征与气象、社会经济及湖泊特征等影响因素之间的关系。结果表明： ① 中国湖泊的营养状态变化具有明显的季节性与地域性,研究时段内处于中营养状态的湖泊约占90%,春季时大多数位于东部平原湖区与东北平原与山区湖区的湖泊表现为贫营养状态,而青藏高原湖区与云贵高原湖区的湖泊在春季多呈现富营养状态。由各个湖泊年均chl-a浓度变化可以看出中国约82%的湖泊年均chl-a浓度的变化率小于0.5,呈现出轻微变化,18%的湖泊chl-a浓度呈现剧烈变化趋势。② 温度和降水对湖表chl-a浓度影响较大,超过70%湖泊的chl-a浓度与其表面温度和降水存在正相关性,其中大部分分布在中国北部与东部。缓冲区人口和草地占比、湖泊海拔和湖泊地理位置也对湖泊浮游植物生物量具有一定影响。 相似文献
20.
阿拉善高原近45 a来气温变化特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
采用1961—2005年阿拉善高原8个测站的温度资料,分析了夏季和冬季的最高/最低日平均气温,以及不同界限温度日数、生长季日数、积温等气象要素的特征与变化趋势。结果表明,近45 a来,阿拉善高原夏季、冬季的最高和最低日平均气温均呈波动上升趋势,冬季最高日平均气温升幅最大,夏季最低日平均气温升幅最小;气温序列线性增温率大致呈现由东南向西北递增的趋势,巴彦浩特单站增温率与阿拉善西北部相当。日平均温度高于30 ℃的炎热日数在近年来增幅较大;日平均温度在20~30 ℃之间的温暖日数和0 ℃~-10 ℃之间的寒冷日数变化不大;低于-10 ℃的严寒日数大幅减少。生长季日数变化不大,生长季积温均有上升趋势。 相似文献