首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 281 毫秒
1.
Chun-Hung Wu  Su-Chin Chen   《Geomorphology》2009,112(3-4):190-204
This work provides a landslide susceptibility assessment model for rainfall-induced landslides in Central Taiwan based on the analytical hierarchy process method. The model considers rainfall and six site factors, including slope, geology, vegetation, soil moisture, road development and historical landslides. The rainfall factor consists of 10-day antecedent rainfall and total rainfall during a rainfall event. Landslide susceptibility values are calculated for both before and after the beginning of a rainfall event. The 175 landslide cases with detailed field surveys are used to determine a landslide-susceptibility threshold value of 9.0. When a landslide susceptibility assessment value exceeds the threshold value, slope failure is likely to occur. Three zones with different landslide susceptibility levels (below, slightly above, and far above the threshold) are identified. The 9149 landslides caused by Typhoon Toraji in Central Taiwan are utilized to validate the study's result. Approximately, 0.2%, 0.4% and 15.3% of the typhoon-caused landslides are located in the three landslide susceptibility zones, respectively. Three villages with 6.6%, 0.4% and 4.9% of the landslides respectively are used to validate the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility map and analyze the main causes of landslides. The landslide susceptibility assessment model can be used to evaluate susceptibility relative to accumulated rainfall, and is useful as an early warning and landslide monitoring tool.  相似文献   

2.
Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m3/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is −1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTLI) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITLI) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.  相似文献   

3.
Landslides are frequent natural disasters in mountainous regions, particularly in the Himalayas in India during the southwest monsoon season. Although scientific study of landslides has been in progress for years, no significant achievement has been made to preclude landsliding and allay disasters. This research was undertaken to understand the areal distribution of landslides based on geological formations and geomorphological processes, and to provide more precise information regarding slope instability and mechanisms of failure. After completing a landslide inventory, prepared through field investigation and satellite image analysis, 493 landslides, comprising 131 investigated in the field and 362 identified from satellite imagery, were identified and mapped. The areal distribution of these landslides shows that sites more prone to landsliding have moderate to steep slopes, the lithology of the Lesser Himalayan formations, and excavations for road corridors. Landslide susceptibility zones were delineated for the area using the weight-of-evidence method on the basis of the frequency and distribution of landslides. Weights of selected variables were computed on the basis of severity of triggering factors. The accuracy of landslide susceptibility zones, calculated statistically (R2 = .93), suggests high accuracy of the model for predicting landsliding in the area.  相似文献   

4.
Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  
Measuring some 2400 km in length, the Himalaya accommodate millions of people in northern India and Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and parts of other Asian nations. Every year, especially during monsoon rains, landslides and related natural events in these mountains cause tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. In the context of the Himalaya, however, the rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation are not well understood. This paper describes regional aspects of rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Himalaya. Some 677 landslides occurring from 1951 to 2006 were studied to analyze rainfall thresholds. Out of the 677 landslides, however, only 193 associated with rainfall data were analyzed to yield a threshold relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and landslide initiation. The threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering rainfall events is I = 73.90D− 0.79 (I = rainfall intensity in mm h− 1 and D = duration in hours), revealing that when the daily precipitation exceeds 144 mm, the risk of landslides on Himalayan mountain slopes is high. Normalized rainfall intensity–duration relationships and landslide initiation thresholds were established from the data after normalizing rainfall-intensity data with respect to mean annual precipitation (MAP) as an index in which NI = 1.10D− 0.59 (NI = normalized intensity in h− 1). Finally, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was also investigated by considering daily rainfall during failure and the cumulative rainfall to discover at what point antecedent rainfall plays an important role in Himalayan landslide processes. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized so they can be used in landslide warning systems in the Nepal Himalaya.  相似文献   

5.
This study assesses the influence of development on landslide occurrences in a rapidly developing area, Kota Kinabalu in Sabah Malaysia, across three assessment years (1978, 1994 and 2010). Two development indicators, land use and road density, were used to measure the influence of development on landslide occurrence. Land use was classified into four categories (barren, forest, developed and other), and road density was classified into low (< 50 m/40 000 m2), moderate (50–150 m/40 000 m2) and high (> 150 m/40 000 m2). Landslide density analysis was used to calculate the concentration of landslide for the different land use and road density categories. The number of landslides in developed areas increased from 19 landslides/100 km2 in 1978, to 29 landslides/100 km2 in 1994 and to 50 landslides/100 km2 in 2010, mirroring an increase in land use for development purposes from 8 per cent in 1978 to 27 per cent in 2010. Landslide density also gradually increased in the high road density class from 10 landslides/100 km2 in 1978, to 30 landslides/100 km2 in 1994 and 62 landslides/100 km2 in 2010. These results show that road construction activities influence landslide occurrences.  相似文献   

6.
Terrain attributes such as slope gradient and slope shape, computed from a gridded digital elevation model (DEM), are important input data for landslide susceptibility mapping. Errors in DEM can cause uncertainty in terrain attributes and thus influence landslide susceptibility mapping. Monte Carlo simulations have been used in this article to compare uncertainties due to DEM error in two representative landslide susceptibility mapping approaches: a recently developed expert knowledge and fuzzy logic-based approach to landslide susceptibility mapping (efLandslides), and a logistic regression approach that is representative of multivariate statistical approaches to landslide susceptibility mapping. The study area is located in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, China, and includes two adjacent areas with similar environmental conditions – one for efLandslides model development (approximately 250 km2) and the other for model extrapolation (approximately 4600 km2). Sequential Gaussian simulation was used to simulate DEM error fields at 25-m resolution with different magnitudes and spatial autocorrelation levels. Nine sets of simulations were generated. Each set included 100 realizations derived from a DEM error field specified by possible combinations of three standard deviation values (1, 7.5, and 15 m) for error magnitude and three range values (0, 60, and 120 m) for spatial autocorrelation. The overall uncertainties of both efLandslides and the logistic regression approach attributable to each model-simulated DEM error were evaluated based on a map of standard deviations of landslide susceptibility realizations. The uncertainty assessment showed that the overall uncertainty in efLandslides was less sensitive to DEM error than that in the logistic regression approach and that the overall uncertainties in both efLandslides and the logistic regression approach for the model-extrapolation area were generally lower than in the model-development area used in this study. Boxplots were produced by associating an independent validation set of 205 observed landslides in the model-extrapolation area with the resulting landslide susceptibility realizations. These boxplots showed that for all simulations, efLandslides produced more reasonable results than logistic regression.  相似文献   

7.
Three hundred and sixty three landslides in three watersheds that totaled 382 km2 were identified from air photographs, beginning at a date that preceded logging to the present. The three watersheds all lie on Vancouver Island; however, they have different precipitation regimes, topography, and amounts logged. Landslide areas in the watersheds varied in size from 200 m2 to more than 1 ha. Nearly 80% of the landslides were debris slides; 15% were debris flows, and the remainder primarily rock falls. Following logging, the number of landslides increased substantially in all watersheds although the amount of increase was variable: approximately 11, 3, and 16 times in Macktush Creek, Artlish River, and Nahwitti River, respectively. Other analyses of changes in landslide density also produced highly variable results, with the number of landslides increasing between 2.4 and 24 times. Further, 2–12 times more landslides reached streams following logging activities. Densities for landslides impacting streams increased for the period of record from 1.5 to 10 times following logging activities. The densities were substantially greater where only landslides that reached streams since development began in a watershed were considered. Roads had the greatest spatial impact in the watersheds (compared to their total area), with frequencies determined to have increased by 27, 12, and 94 times for Macktush, Artlish, and Nahwitti, respectively. The results highlight the relative impact of roads and their role in slope stability.  相似文献   

8.
Chinese historic documents recorded that on June 1, 1786, a strong M=7.75 earthquake occurred in the Kangding-Luding area, Sichuan, southwestern China, resulting in a large landslide that fell into the Dadu River. As a result, a landslide dam blocked the river. Ten days later, the sudden breaching of the dam resulted in catastrophic downstream flooding. Historic records document over 100,000 deaths by the flood. This may be the most disastrous event ever caused by landslide dam failures in the world. Although a lot of work has been carried out to determine the location, magnitude and intensity of the 1786 earthquake, relatively little is known about the occurrence and nature of the landslide dam. In this paper, the dam was reconstructed using historic documents and geomorphic evidence. It was found that the landslide dam was about 70 m high, and it created a lake with a water volume of about 50×106 m3 and an area of about 1.7 km2. The landslide dam breached suddenly due to a major aftershock on June 10, 1786. The peak discharge at the dam breach was estimated using regression equations and a physically based predictive equation. The possibility of a future failure of the landslide seems high, particularly due to inherent seismic risk, and detailed geotechnical investigations are strongly recommended for evaluating the current stability of the landslide.  相似文献   

9.
在对金沙江流域内的部分大型水电站工程区内的滑坡分析基础上,以两个滑坡为例,针对水电站工程区讨论了单体滑坡的风险评价方法。选取滑坡稳定性,规模和可能造成的涌浪高度3个指标进行危险性评价;并且定性地将大坝的易损性确定为高、中、低三个等级。在此基础上,对研究区的牛滚函滑坡和东岳庙滑坡进行了危险性分析和易损性评价,得出这两个单体滑坡的风险分析结果：牛滚函滑坡为低度风险,东岳庙滑坡为中度风险。研究成果为水电站工程区滑坡减灾防灾与风险管理提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

10.
During the last decade, slope failures were reported in a 500 km2 study area in the Geba–Werei catchment, northern Ethiopia, a region where landslides were not considered an important hazard before. Field observations, however, revealed that many of the failures were actually reactivations of old deep-seated landslides after land use changes. Therefore, this study was conducted (1) to explore the importance of environmental factors controlling landslide occurrence and (2) to estimate future landslide susceptibility. A landslide inventory map of the study area derived from aerial photograph interpretation and field checks shows the location of 57 landslides and six zones with multiple landslides, mainly complex slides and debris flows. In total 14.8% of the area is affected by an old landslide. For the landslide susceptibility modelling, weights of evidence (WofE), was applied and five different models were produced. After comparison of the models and spatial validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Kappa values, a model combining data on elevation, hillslope gradient, aspect, geology and distance to faults was selected. This model confirmed our hypothesis that deep-seated landslides are located on hillslopes with a moderate slope gradient (i.e. 5°–13°). The depletion areas are expected on and along the border of plateaus where weathered basalts rich in smectite clays are found, and the landslide debris is expected to accumulate on the Amba Aradam sandstone and upper Antalo limestone. As future landslides are believed to occur on inherently unstable hillslopes similar to those where deep-seated landslides occurred, the classified landslide susceptibility map allows delineating zones where human interventions decreasing slope stability might cause slope failures. The results obtained demonstrate that the applied methodology could be used in similar areas where information on the location of landslides is essential for present-day hazard analysis.  相似文献   

11.
A comparison of landslide rates following helicopter and conventional, cable-based, clear-cut logging was carried out using results from two independent terrain attribute studies in the Eldred and Lois River watersheds in the Southwest Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Landslides initiating from directly within a road prism were excluded from the study in order to focus the comparison on landslides related primarily to conventional versus helicopter yarding methods. A landslide rate of 0.02 landslides/ha was observed in 162 terrain polygons logged by helicopter 8 years prior to this study. Landslide rates in 38 gullied polygons were 0.06 landslides/ha. No landslides were observed in 124 open-slope polygons. Over a similar 8-year average period, 0.03 landslides/ha were observed in 142 cable-yarded terrain polygons; 0.06 and 0.02 landslides/ha occurred in gullied and open-slope polygons, respectively. t-Tests indicate that total landslide rates are not significantly different following helicopter and conventional logging; however, a dichotomy exists between gullied and open-slope terrain polygons. Landslide rates are not significantly different in gullied terrain but are significantly higher on open-slopes following conventional cable logging. Consequently, landslides appear to have a greater potential to occur in open-slope terrain following conventional logging, but differences in gullied polygons are less likely. Increased post-logging landslide rates in conventionally logged, open slopes are more likely the result of undetected road-related drainage changes than differences between helicopter and conventional yarding-related ground disturbance.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT

The size and spatial distribution of loess slides are important for estimating the yield of eroded materials and determining the landslide risk. While previous studies have investigated landslide size distributions, the spatial distribution pattern of landslides at different spatial scales is poorly understood. The results indicate that the loess slide distribution exhibits a power-law scaling across a range of the size distribution. The mean landslide size and size distribution in the different geomorphic types are different. The double Pareto and inverse gamma functions can coincide well with the empirical probability distribution of the loess slide areas and can quantitatively reveal the rollover location, maximum probability, and scaling exponents. The frequency of loess slides increases with mean monthly precipitation. Moreover, point distance analysis showed that > 80% of landslides are located < 3 km from other loess slides. We found that the loess slides at the two study sites (Zhidan and Luochuan County) in northern Shaanxi Province, China show a significant clustered distribution. Furthermore, analysis results of the correlated fractal dimension show that the landslides exhibit a dispersed distribution at smaller spatial scales and a clustered distribution at larger spatial scales.  相似文献   

13.
《自然地理学》2013,34(6):501-516
Active landslides are evident throughout Bridger-Teton National Forest (BTNF), and northwestern Wyoming has one of the highest landslide densities in the country. Land use changes and increased demands for infrastructure challenge BTNF personnel to better understand landslide processes in order to make informed land management decisions. Despite recent population growth in the region, research on landslide phenomena is lacking. In this study, soil and geomorphic properties related to landslide occurrence were studied at 18 landslides in the BTNF. Landslides were categorized as active or inactive based on geomorphic features. Landslide soil characteristics including texture, shrink-swell potential, clay mineralogy, and horizonation were compared on active and inactive landslides. The results indicate that soil characteristics related to the degree of soil formation are different on active and inactive landslides. Soil characteristics such as plasticity, shrink-swell potential, and clay mineralogy influence slope stability and were distinctly different on active and inactive landslides, especially in C horizons. This study shows that soil characteristics and slope geomorphic properties may be useful for assessing landslide frequency. Our results support a hypothesis that landslide occurrence in the BTNF is related to weathering of soil and unconsolidated material, which affects clay mineralogy.  相似文献   

14.
Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale   总被引：32，自引：9，他引：32  
We propose a probabilistic model to determine landslide hazard at the basin scale. The model predicts where landslides will occur, how frequently they will occur, and how large they will be. We test the model in the Staffora River basin, in the northern Apennines, Italy. For the study area, we prepare a multi-temporal inventory map through the interpretation of multiple sets of aerial photographs taken between 1955 and 1999. We partition the basin into 2243 geo-morpho-hydrological units, and obtain the probability of spatial occurrence of landslides by discriminant analysis of thematic variables, including morphological, lithological, structural and land use. For each mapping unit, we obtain the landslide recurrence by dividing the total number of landslide events inventoried in the unit by the time span of the investigated period. Assuming that landslide recurrence will remain the same in the future, and adopting a Poisson probability model, we determine the exceedance probability of having one or more landslides in each mapping unit, for different periods. We obtain the probability of landslide size by analysing the frequency–area statistics of landslides, obtained from the multi-temporal inventory map. Assuming independence, we obtain a quantitative estimate of landslide hazard for each mapping unit as the joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence and of landslide spatial occurrence.  相似文献   

15.
Sedimentary impacts from landslides in the Tachia River Basin, Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Chien-Yuan Chen   《Geomorphology》2009,105(3-4):355-365
A case study of coseismic landslides and post-seismic sedimentary impacts of landslides due to rainfall events was conducted in the Tachia River basin, Taichung County, central Taiwan. About 3000 coseismic landslides occurred in the basin during the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999. The deposits from these landslides provided material for numerous debris flows induced by subsequent rainfall events. The estimated 4.1 × 107 m3 of landslide debris produced in the upland area caused sediment deposition in riverbeds, and flash floods inundated downstream areas with sediment during torrential rains. The landslide frequency-size distributions for the coseismic landslides and the subsequent rainfall-induced landslides were analyzed to determine the sediment budgets of the post-seismic geomorphic response in the landslide-dominated basin. Both the coseismic and the rainfall-induced landslides show a power–law frequency-size distribution with a rollover. It was found that the rainfall-induced landslide magnitude was smaller than the coseismic one, and that both have comparable negative scaling exponents in cumulative form, of about − 2.0 for larger landslides (> 10− 2 km2). This may be attributed to ongoing movement or reactivation of old landslides, and a natural stabilisation of small landslides between 10− 4 and 10− 2 km2. It is proposed that the characteristics of geological formations and rainfall as well as changes in landslide area are reflected in the power–law distribution.  相似文献   

16.
Páramos are neotropical alpine grasslands located in the northern Andes of South America. Although they cover important headwater regions, little is known about the hydro-geomorphic characteristics of páramo river systems, which are increasingly being impacted by human use and climate change. The objective of this research is to characterize the geomorphology of the Ningar River, Ecuador, an Amazonian headwater river that drains a 22.7 km2 páramo sub-basin, by (1) classifying the geomorphology based on common geomorphic classifications, (2) deriving downstream hydraulic geometry relationships, and (3) performing a global comparison with mountain river systems. Common geomorphic field surveying techniques were used to acquire the necessary data. Results suggest that the Ningar River has similar form-function characteristics as other known mountain headwater streams and corresponds to commonly known stream classification systems, but displays more of an alluvial character than might be expected for montane headwater streams as a result of a convexity in the stream’s longitudinal profile. Additionally, preliminary analyses suggest that other páramo headwater streams may exhibit similar characteristics; thus, the findings of this research are important for future management and protection of these valuable headwater ecosystems.  相似文献   

17.
Seven landslide dams of old seismic origin in southeastern Sicily (Italy)   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
This paper focuses on origin, morphology and evolution of seven landslide dams in southeastern Sicily. These landforms are part of a set of 146 landslides recently recognised in this area, which was hitherto considered to have little or no slope instability. Southeastern Sicily consists of a plateau (the Hyblaean Mountains) incised by canyons and surrounded by lower lands. It is underlain mostly by subhorizontal, moderately to well-lithified carbonate rocks. Relief is low.Several lines of evidence justify the assumption of a seismic trigger for the landslides in this area: (1) the geo-climatic environment is not favourable to landsliding, (2) low-angle basal shear surfaces are very frequent, (3) landslide distribution is consistent with the known magnitude–distance relationships for earthquake-induced landslides, (4) historical documents testify to earthquake-triggered slope instability and (5) a specific landslide can be exactly dated.The phenomena illustrated here include six rock slides (one with a debris-flow component) and one rock fall. Slip surfaces are mostly non-circular. Landslide volume ranges from about 50×103 to 34×106 m3.With reference to the Costa and Schuster [Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 100 (1988) 1054] classification of landslide dams, five cases belong to type II (spanning the entire valley), and two to type IV (failures from both valley sides, with frontal or side contact between failed masses). With reference to Crozier and Pillans [Catena 18 (1991) 471] classification of landslide lakes, all cases show a main valley lake while tributary valley, back and supra lakes are sporadically present. One damming is attributable to the 1693 earthquake with certainty; another damming, to the same earthquake with high probability. Three dams were reincised, one breached or reincised, one is slightly reincised and two more or less intact; correspondingly, five silting up deposits were reincised, one is being reincised at present and two are still under formation.  相似文献   

18.
Monitoring and assessment of landslide hazard is an important task for decision making and policy planning in the landslide area. Massive landslides, caused by the catastrophic Chi‐Chi earthquake in 1999, occurred in Central Taiwan, especially at Chiufenershan area in Nantou county. This study proposed two useful indicators coupled with the Self‐organizing map (SOM) neural network and the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) technique to quickly extract accurate post‐quake landslides from multi‐temporal Système Probatoire de l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) images. A GIS‐based system was developed to simplify and integrate the procedures such as image pre‐processing, the SOM training, the PROMETHEE calculation, landslide extraction and accuracy assessment. The evaluated result shows that the landslide area soon after the earthquake is 209.50 ha (Kappa coefficient 96.88%). Over seven years of vegetation recovery, the denudation area has declined to 112.64 ha (Kappa coefficient 90.64%). Most earthquake‐induced landslides could be restored by natural vegetation succession. The developed system is a useful decision‐making tool for landslide area planning.  相似文献   

19.
We present results of two studies on the (1) potential wood load in steep headwater streams and (2) properties of large wood (LW) transported in mountain rivers during the large August 2005 flood event in Switzerland. Ten headwater reaches of 1000 m length were surveyed in different regions of Switzerland. The potential wood load was estimated for in-channel deadwood, and possible driving factors were explored. Correlations were found with dead wood volume on hillslopes and mean channel width. We established size distributions of LW pieces and identified probable recruitment processes. Four reaches were resurveyed after an exceptionally severe flood in August 2005, showing limited LW transport in channels but considerable wood input by mass wasting processes. In addition, characteristics of deposits of LW along mountain rivers affected by the 2005 flood were investigated. Diameter and length distribution of transported and deposited pieces were comparable to those of LW from steep headwater streams, yet with considerably fewer long pieces in the deposits of mountain rivers. Most LW pieces were fresh wood, indicating that the portion of in-channel deadwood transported during the 2005 flood was limited. Findings of the study contribute to a better understanding of LW dynamics in Alpine mountain streams.  相似文献   

20.
Landslide susceptibility zonation in the Rio Mendoza Valley, Argentina   总被引：3，自引：4，他引：3  
A qualitative landslide susceptibility zonation map (scale 1:100,000) of a sector of the Río Mendoza Valley was prepared by overlapping thematic maps of conditioning factors. The main parameters affecting the distribution of landslides in the area were ranked according to slope instability. Geomorphological surveys and field observations enabled identification of 300 historical or prehistoric landslides. A landslide inventory was developed classifying the processes involved in slope instability, and analysing the degree of activity. The two most influential factors in decreasing slope stability were lithology and slope angle.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号