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1.
In this paper, sparse data problem in neural network and geostatistical modeling for ore-grade estimation was addressed in the Nome offshore placer gold deposit. The problem of sparse data arises because of the random data division into training, validation, and test subsets during ore-grade modeling. In this regard, the possibility of generating statistically dissimilar data subsets by random data division was also explored through a simulation exercise. A combined approach of data segmentation and application of a Kohonen network then was used to solve the data division problem. Two neural networks and five kriging models were applied for grade modeling. The neural network was trained using an early stopping method. Performance evaluation of the models was carried out on the test data set. The study results indicated that all the models that were investigated in this study performed almost equally. It was also revealed that by using the secondary variable watertable depth the neural network and the kriging models slightly improved their prediction precision. Further, the overall R 2 of the models was poor as a result of high nugget (noisy) component in ore-grade variation.  相似文献   

2.
The Mw 7.6 October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake triggered several thousand landslides throughout the Himalaya of northern Pakistan and India. These were concentrated in six different geomorphic–geologic–anthropogenic settings. A spatial database, which included 2252 landslides, was developed and analyzed using ASTER satellite imagery and geographical information system (GIS) technology. A multi-criterion evaluation was applied to determine the significance of event-controlling parameters in triggering the landslides. The parameters included lithology, faults, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, land cover, rivers and roads. The results showed four classes of landslide susceptibility. Furthermore, they indicated that lithology had the strongest influence on landsliding, particularly when the rock is highly fractured, such as in shale, slate, clastic sediments, and limestone and dolomite. Moreover, the proximity of the landslides to faults, rivers, and roads was also an important factor in helping to initiate failures. In addition, landslides occurred particularly in moderate elevations on south facing slopes. Shrub land, grassland, and also agricultural land were highly susceptible to failures, while forested slopes had few landslides. One-third of the study area was highly or very highly susceptible to future landsliding and requires immediate mitigation action. The rest of the region had a low or moderate susceptibility to landsliding and remains relatively stable. This study supports the view that (1) earthquake-triggered landslides are concentrated in specific zones associated with event-controlling parameters; and (2) in the western Himalaya deforestation and road construction contributed significantly to landsliding during and shortly after earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
Steep terrain and high a frequency of tropical rainstorms make landslide occurrence on natural terrain a common phenomenon in Hong Kong. This paper reports on the use of a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) database, compiled primarily from existing digital maps and aerial photographs, to describe the physical characteristics of landslides and the statistical relations of landslide frequency with the physical parameters contributing to the initiation of landslides on Lantau Island in Hong Kong. The horizontal travel length and the angle of reach, defined as the angle of the line connecting the head of the landslide source to the distal margin of the displaced mass, are used to describe runout behavior of landslide mass. For all landslides studied, the horizontal travel length of landslide mass ranges from 5 to 785 m, with a mean value of 43 m, and the average angle of reach is 27.7°. This GIS database is then used to obtain a logistic multiple regression model for predicting slope instability. It is indicated that slope gradient, lithology, elevation, slope aspect, and land-use are statistically significant in predicting slope instability, while slope morphology and proximity to drainage lines are not important and thus excluded from the model. This model is then imported back into the GIS to produce a map of predicted slope instability. The results of this study demonstrate that slope instability can be effectively modeled by using GIS technology and logistic multiple regression analysis.  相似文献   

4.
Using a combination of geophysical and geotechnical data from Storfjorden Trough Mouth Fan off southern Svalbard, we investigate the hydrogeology of the continental margin and how this is affected by Quaternary glacial advances and retreats over the continental shelf. The geotechnical results show that plumites, deposited during the deglaciation, have high porosities, permeabilities and compressibilities with respect to glacigenic debris flows and tills. These results together with margin stratigraphic models obtained from seismic reflection data were used as input for numerical finite element models to understand focusing of interstitial fluids on glaciated continental margins. The modelled evolution of the Storfjorden TMF shows that tills formed on the shelf following the onset of glacial sedimentation (ca. 1.5 Ma) acted as aquitards and therefore played a significant role in decreasing the vertical fluid flow towards the sea floor and diverting it towards the slope. The model shows that high overpressure ratios (up to λ ca. 0.6) developed below the shelf edge and on the middle slope. A more detailed model for the last 220 kyrs accounting for ice loading during glacial maxima shows that the formation of these aquitards on the shelf focused fluid flow towards the most permeable plumite sediments on the slope. The less permeable glacigenic debris flows that were deposited during glacial maxima on the slope hinder fluid evacuation from plumites allowing high overpressure ratios (up to λ ca. 0.7) to develop in the shallowest plumite layers. These high overpressures likely persist to the Present and are a critical precondition for submarine slope failure.  相似文献   

5.
This study presents scenario models for historical variations of climate and slope stability. A model for historical annual patterns of temperature and rainfall was established on the basis of seasonal proxies. A process-based, spatio-temporal model for groundwater variations and slope stability was developed using the GIS environment of the software PCRaster. We applied the slope stability model to study the effects of the different climate scenarios on slope stability for three different hillslopes in the area around Bonn (Germany). The findings indicate three climatic phases with different annual temperature and precipitation patterns over the historic period. The modeling results show that a climatic scenario representing unstable conditions of a transition from the more humid Little Ice Age to dryer recent climate produces the highest slope instabilities. The intensity of this impact, however, varies with the sensitivity of the geomorphic system, i.e. local landforms and lithology, and cannot be generally related to the stability of a specific hillslope. More unstable areas are not necessarily more sensitive to climatic changes: the location of permeable layers (prone to groundwater rise) in relation to sensitive layers (lower strength) and higher gradients (higher stress) influences the sensitivity of a site with respect to climate changes. The presented method is capable of modeling landscape sensitivity to climate change with respect to groundwater-controlled landslides.  相似文献   

6.
Rainfall-triggered regolith landslides constitute a dominant erosional process in New Zealand hill country. Conversion of forest to pasture about 150 years ago decreased the size of event required to trigger slope failure resulting in greater landslide activity. Recent research indicates that shallow landslides then cause progressive regolith stripping with redeposition at the slope base. The exposed bedrock is less permeable than the pre-existing regolith cover and the redeposited soil has a higher unit weight. Hence, alterations in both hydrological and geotechnical conditions result, changing the triggering thresholds for further failure. In this paper three phases of regolith stripping are investigated using a process-based model, to define variations in both the triggering storms as well as the failure mechanisms under these altered hydrological and geotechnical conditions. Over time, as the regolith is stripped progressively upslope, the threshold for slope failure also changes such that the landscape becomes more stable. However, there is a varying sensitivity to storm type for each of the three phases, which adds complexity to the relationship between regolith stripping and slope failure. Model results suggest different hydrological conditions for slope instability, depending on the degree of stripping and redeposition, adding further complexity. Future advances in process-based modelling are required for detailed investigation of temporal changes in landscape susceptibility to slope failure, and uncertainty in both model parameterisation as well as process representation should be emphasised when applying such models to the long term.  相似文献   

7.
The Quaternary to late Pliocene sedimentary succession along the margin of the South Caspian Basin contains numerous kilometre‐scale submarine slope failures, which were sourced along the basin slope and from the inclined flanks of contemporaneous anticlines. This study uses three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection data to visualise the internal structure of 27 mass transport deposits and catalogues the syndepositional structures contained within them. These are used to interpret emplacement processes occurring during submarine slope failure. The deposits consist of three linked structural domains: extensional, translational and compressive, each containing characteristic structures. Novel features are present within the mass transport deposits: (1) a diverging retrogression of the headwall scarp; (2) the absence of a conventional headwall scarp around growth stratal pinch outs; (3) restraining bends in the lateral margin; (4) a downslope increase in the throw of thrust faults. The results of this study shed light on the deformation that occurred during submarine slope failure, and highlight an important geological process in the evolution of the South Caspian Basin margin.  相似文献   

8.
The highways circumnavigating Viti Levu play a pivotal role in Fiji's socioeconomic development, and are a crucial link to transport aid during disasters. Slope failures triggered by heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones have led to considerable damage and fatalities along Viti Levu's main roads in the past. Knowledge of slope instability mechanisms is key for the successful identification and management of slope failure hazards, however, there is a paucity of such information for Fiji's main roads. Severe Tropical Cyclone (STC) Winston was the strongest cyclone on record to make landfall in Fiji and affected the Fiji Islands from the early hours of 20 February until 3 am, 21 February, 2016. We present a field reconnaissance examining the characteristics and mechanisms of slope failures induced by STC Winston along a 35 km stretch of the northern part of the Viti Levu's ring road, “Kings Road”. Approximately 61 distinct shallow, small‐scale slope failures were identified most of which were of a complex type and included earth and debris slides (planar and rotational) with a minor flow component. The trigger for the slope failures was the ~258 mm of rainfall in 24 hours after 30‐days of antecedent rainfall totalling 482 mm. This caused rapid increases in porewater pressures, especially at the contact of residual soils and the underlying weathered basement rock. Evidence of recurring slips along Kings Road indicates that contemporary slope instability is likely caused by elevated porewater pressure during high intensity rainfall events in clay‐dominated soils.  相似文献   

9.
A subsurface evacuation model for submarine slope failure   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Analysis of three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection data from the Norwegian continental margin provides an insight into an unusual, buried submarine slope failure, which occurred adjacent to the later Holocene-age Storegga Slide. The identified failure, informally named the 'South Vøring Slide' (SVS), occurs in fine-grained hemipelagic and contourite sediments on a slope of 0.5°, and is characterised by a deformed seismic facies unit consisting of closely spaced pyramidal blocks and ridges bound by small normal faults striking perpendicular to the slope. The SVS contrasts with other previously described submarine slope failures in that it cannot be explained by a retrogressive model. The defining characteristic is the high relative volume loss. The area affected by sliding has thinned by some 40%, seen in combination with very modest extension in the translation direction, with line length balancing yielding an extension value of only 4.5%. The volume loss is explained by the mobilisation of an approximately 40 m thick interval at the lower part of the unit and its removal from beneath a thin overburden, which subsequently underwent extensional fragmentation. Evidence for the mobilisation of a thick fine-grained interval in the development of a submarine slope failure from a continental margin setting may have implications for the origins of other large-scale slope failures on the Norwegian margin and other glacially influenced margins worldwide.  相似文献   

10.
A combination of geomorphological, seismic reflection and geotechnical data constrains this study of sediment erosion and deposition at the toe of the Cascadia accretionary prism. We conducted a series of ALVIN dives in a region south of Astoria Canyon to examine the interrelationship of fluid flow and slope failure in a series of headless submarine canyons. Elevated head gradients at the inflection point of canyons have been inferred to assist in localized failures that feed sediment into a closed slope basin. Measured head gradients are an order of magnitude too low to cause seepage-induced slope failure alone; we therefore propose transient slope failure mechanisms. Intercanyon slopes are uniformly unscarred and smooth, although consolidation tests indicate that up to several metres of material may have been removed. A sheet-like failure would remove sediment uniformly, preserving the observed smooth intercanyon slope. Earthquake-induced liquefaction is a likely trigger for this type of sheet failure as the slope is too steep and short for sediment flow to organize itself into channels. Bathymetric and seismic reflection data suggest sediment in a trench slope basin between the second and third ridges from the prism's deformation is derived locally. A comparison of the amounts of material removed from the slopes and that in the basin shows that the amount of material removed from the slopes may slightly exceed the amount of material in the basin, implying that a small amount of sediment has escaped the basin, perhaps when the second ridge was too low to form a sufficient dam, or through a gap in the second ridge to the south. Regardless, almost 80% of the material shed off the slopes around the basin is deposited locally, whereas the remaining 20% is redeposited on the incoming section and will be re-accreted.
  相似文献   

11.
Understanding the complexity of urban expansion requires an analysis of the factors influencing the spatial and temporal processes of rural–urban land conversion. This study aims at building a statistical land conversion model to assist in understanding land use change patterns. Specifically, GIS coupled with a logistic regression model and exponential smoothing techniques is used for exploring the effects of various factors on land use change. These factors include population density, slope, proximity to roads, and surrounding land use, and their influence on land use change is studied for generating a predictive model. Methods to reduce spatial autocorrelation in a logistic regression framework are also discussed. Primarily, an optimal sampling scheme that can eliminate spatial autocorrelation while maintaining adequate samples to allow the model to achieve the comparable accuracy as the spatial autoregressive model is developed. Since many of the previous studies on modeling the spatial complexity of urban growth ignored temporal complexity, a modified exponential smoothing technique is employed to produce a smoothed model from a series of bi‐temporal models obtained from different time periods. The proposed model is validated using the multi‐temporal land use data in New Castle County, DE, USA. It is demonstrated that our approach provides an effective option for multi‐temporal land use change modeling and the modeling results help interpret the land use change patterns.  相似文献   

12.
资源环境模型库管理系统研究进展   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
资源环境模型库管理系统是资源环境研究中的关键问题之一。建立资源环境模型库管理 系统通常有两种途径。一种途径是采用模型管理技术, 其主要方法包括数据式模型管理、结构化 模型管理、面向对象的模型管理和基于知识的模型管理, 这种方式的优势是可以有效地管理资源 环境模型, 但对空间数据处理的功能较弱, 需要编写大量的程序代码。另一种途径是在GIS 中管 理模型, 如ArcGIS 中的ModelBuilder, 这种方式的优点是可以充分利用GIS 的空间数据处理能 力, 但对复杂模型的支持较差。根据以上两种方式的特点, 本文提出了一种面向对象的资源环境 模型管理框架, 把模型抽象为模型类与模型实例, 采用面向对象方法表达模型, 通过构建资源环 境模型引擎处理空间数据和模型数学方程; 利用模型库和数据库, 可以实现模型的有效管理和模 型重用。  相似文献   

13.
《自然地理学》2013,34(3):216-247
  相似文献   

14.
Posterior probabilities of occurrence for Zn-Pb Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) mineralization were calculated based on evidence maps derived from regional geology, Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, a digital elevation model and aeromagnetic data sets in the Borden Basin of northern Baffin Island, Canada. The vector representation of geological contacts and fault traces were refined according to their characteristics identified in Landsat-TM, RADARSAT-1, DEM, slope, aspect, and shaded relief data layers. Within the study area, there is an association between the occurrence of MVT mineralization and proximity to the contact of platformal carbonates and shale units of the adjacent geological formation. A spatial association also tends to exist between mineralization and proximity to E-W and NW-SE trending faults. The relationships of known MVT occurrences with the geological features were investigated by spatial statistical techniques to generate evidence maps. Supervised classification and filtering were applied to Landsat-TM data to divide the Society Cliffs Formation into major stratigraphic subunits. Because iron oxides have been observed at some of the MVT occurrences within the Borden Basin, Landsat-TM data band ratio (3/1) was calculated to highlight the potential presence of iron-oxides as another evidence map. Processed Landsat-TM data and other derived geological evidence maps provided useful indicators for identifying areas of potential MVT mineralization. Weights of evidence and logistic regression were used independently to integrate and generate posterior probability maps showing areas of potential mineralization based on all derived evidence maps. Results indicate that in spite of the lack of important data sets such as stream or lake sediment geochemistry, Landsat-TM data and regional geological data can be useful for MVT mineral-potential mapping.  相似文献   

15.
A 3-D finite element model (Feflow) has been used for regional groundwater flow modelling of Upper Chaj Doab in Indus Basin, Pakistan. The thematic layers of soils, landuse, hydrology, infrastructure and climate were developed using Geographic Information System (GIS). The numerical groundwater flow model is developed to configure the groundwater equipotential surface, hydraulic head gradient and estimation of the groundwater budget of the aquifer. Integration of GIS with groundwater modelling and satellite remote sensing capabilities has provided an efficient way of analysing and monitoring groundwater status and its associated land conditions. The Arcview GIS software is used as additive tool to develop supportive data for numerical groundwater modelling, integration and presentation of image processing and modelling results.
The groundwater behaviour of the regional model shows a gradual decline in watertable from year 1999 onward. The persistent dry condition and high withdrawal rates play an influential role in lowering down the groundwater levels. Different scenarios were developed to study the impact of extreme climatic conditions (drought/flood) and variable groundwater abstraction on the regional groundwater system. The results of the study provide useful information regarding the behaviour of aquifer in order to organize management schemes on local and regional basis to monitor future groundwater development in the area.  相似文献   

16.
GIS空间动态模型组件的设计与实现   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
组件重用技术为GIS与空间模型的集成提供了新的解决方案。该文设计的空间动态模型的GIS组件 -Dy namicGC ,它在传统GIS数据模型的基础上 ,增加了表达空间动态系统的过程和关系 (流 )的数据模型和对象接口 ,为GIS环境下创建复杂动态过程模型提供了新的工具和解决方案。该组件基于微软组件对象模型 (COM/DCOM)实现 ,充分考虑了互操作性、模型建模语言以及模型系统的可获取性需求 ,由一系列支持动态数据计算的OLE自动化对象集组成 ,可支持VB、Dephi、VisualC 等通用开发环境 ,也支持VBA、VBSCRIPT、JAVASCRIPT等脚本语言环境。使用VBA创建了经典的“生命游戏”的元胞自动机模型的实现 ,作为该组件创建动态过程模型的应用实例。  相似文献   

17.
Slope failures cause billions of dollars of damage annually and put human lives at risk. This study employed field measurements and observations to provide the framework for laboratory simulations to investigate the effects of environmental characteristics on slope stability in the highly fractured bedrock region of the Boston Mountains, northwest Arkansas. Field measurements, to determine characteristics and possible controls of 10 shallow slope failures along an interstate highway, revealed that slope failures occurred within a relatively narrow range of slope angles (17–36°) and in loamy soils. Based on field observations, flume experiments were conducted to investigate the relationships between soil texture, slope angle, bedrock fractures, soil compaction, and slope instability. Time to failure differed (p < 0.05) among treatment combinations. Generally, slopes composed of loam were more stable than slopes composed of sand. Time to failure decreased more on slopes of 15–20° than on slopes of 20–25°. Flume slopes with sod cover never failed. This study provided a methodology for using field analyses of slope failures to guide laboratory experiments and demonstrated that complex interactions among environmental factors work to stabilize or compromise steep (>20°) slopes.  相似文献   

18.
M. Ruff  K. Czurda   《Geomorphology》2008,94(3-4):314
The aim of the study is landslide hazard assessment carried out on a working scale of 1:25 000. The study area within the Northern Calcareous Alps was geologically and geotechnically mapped in order to identify causes and mechanisms of active mass movements. The field surveys were digitised by a Geographical Information System and divided into data layers. The geological units were classified according to their geotechnical properties. All layers were converted into grids and spatially analysed together with a Digital Elevation Model. Comparing the layers with the inventory of active landslides, the prevailing factors leading to sliding movements were identified. Because of the complex tectonic setting and the small number of active landslides, a statistical method of hazard assessment was not applicable. Using the heuristic approach of an index method, the data layers of geotechnical class, bedding conditions, tectonic layouts, slope angles, slope orientations, vegetation and erosion were analysed. The susceptibility of each layer has been evaluated with help of bivariate statistics. The layers have been weighted with indices due to their importance iteratively and were combined into a landslide susceptibility map.  相似文献   

19.
Mass wasting evidence is common along the margins of the Columbia River Basalts. I identified, mapped, dated, and assessed the environment of nearly 160 discrete slope failures (excluding rockfall) along the margins of the Columbia River Basalts in the Swauk watershed of central Washington. Rotational slides, translational slides, flows, and complex slide-flows were identified via topographic map, airphoto, and field analysis. Geographic information systems analysis revealed that these features cover 38% of the watershed. Translational slides are the most numerous of the slope failures, whereas complex slide-flows cover the most area. I placed each slope failure into a relative age category (active, inactive-young, inactive mature, and inactive-old) based on the characteristics of the main scarp, lateral flanks, internal morphology, vegetation cover, and toe relationships. Most Swauk watershed slope failures are inactive-mature. Organic sediments from an inactive-mature sag pond formed ～6880 14C yr BP, whereas inactive-young sediments dated at ～5930 14C yr BP. Inactive slope failures are often associated with steep slopes, inclined beds, incompetent geologic units, or streamcuts. Streamcuts, roadcuts, or clearcuts typically accompany active slope failures. Rain-on-snow events and associated mass wasting in winter 1996 provide a plausible trigger analog for inactive mass wasting. Rockfall deposits cover ～29% of the watershed, range from inactive to active in age, and occur atop pre-existing slope failures in well-jointed Columbia River Basalts. Mass wasting has played a key role in shaping the topographic and hydrologic patterns of the watershed. [Key words: mass wasting, watershed, Washington state, Columbia River Basalts, rain-onsnow.]  相似文献   

20.
During the last decade, slope failures were reported in a 500 km2 study area in the Geba–Werei catchment, northern Ethiopia, a region where landslides were not considered an important hazard before. Field observations, however, revealed that many of the failures were actually reactivations of old deep-seated landslides after land use changes. Therefore, this study was conducted (1) to explore the importance of environmental factors controlling landslide occurrence and (2) to estimate future landslide susceptibility. A landslide inventory map of the study area derived from aerial photograph interpretation and field checks shows the location of 57 landslides and six zones with multiple landslides, mainly complex slides and debris flows. In total 14.8% of the area is affected by an old landslide. For the landslide susceptibility modelling, weights of evidence (WofE), was applied and five different models were produced. After comparison of the models and spatial validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Kappa values, a model combining data on elevation, hillslope gradient, aspect, geology and distance to faults was selected. This model confirmed our hypothesis that deep-seated landslides are located on hillslopes with a moderate slope gradient (i.e. 5°–13°). The depletion areas are expected on and along the border of plateaus where weathered basalts rich in smectite clays are found, and the landslide debris is expected to accumulate on the Amba Aradam sandstone and upper Antalo limestone. As future landslides are believed to occur on inherently unstable hillslopes similar to those where deep-seated landslides occurred, the classified landslide susceptibility map allows delineating zones where human interventions decreasing slope stability might cause slope failures. The results obtained demonstrate that the applied methodology could be used in similar areas where information on the location of landslides is essential for present-day hazard analysis.  相似文献   

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