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1.
耕地撂荒研究进展与展望 总被引：35，自引：5，他引：35
20世纪后半叶以来许多发达国家发生明显的耕地撂荒现象,并逐渐演变为全球性土地利用现象,深刻地改变了广大农村地区土地景观.本文以"土地利用变化--驱动机制--环境效应--政策响应"的框架系统梳理耕地撂荒主要研究进展.研究表明:① 全球耕地撂荒仍主要发生在欧美发达国家,但发展程度的区域差异很大;② 社会经济要素变化是耕地撂荒最主要驱动力,务农机会成本上升等原因引起的耕地边际化是撂荒发生的根本原因,而劳动力析出是造成耕地撂荒的直接原因;③ 耕地撂荒与否,撂荒程度以及撂荒地空间分布受村镇,农户,地块三个尺度的自然条件,劳动力特征,农业生产条件和区域社会经济条件等多方面因素的综合影响;④ 生态环境效应是当前撂荒效应研究的焦点,但该效应是以积极还是消极为主仍存争议;⑤ 增加农业补贴是当前减缓耕地撂荒的主要措施,但并非唯一和最合理的措施.未来,快速城镇化进程将促使中国耕地撂荒现象愈演愈烈,所以当前研究有待加强,本文认为应加强大范围耕地撂荒信息提取和监测,撂荒趋势预测和风险评估,社会经济效应评估及政策设计等方面研究. 相似文献
2.
弃耕是一个全球性问题,被认为是土地利用变化研究中最重要的研究领域之一。明确撂荒耕地驱动因素对于提高农村地区耕地资源利用效率、保障国家粮食安全具有至关重要的作用。本文采用定性比较分析法(QCA)对赣州市49个村庄的耕地撂荒影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:(1)耕地撂荒是多因素共同作用的结果,其中农业机械化水平低是赣州耕地撂荒发生的必要条件,对耕地撂荒具有重要影响。(2)导致耕地撂荒现象的路径不具有唯一性,研究区有5个导致耕地撂荒现象产生的组合。它们分别是组合A1(交通便利、农业生产设施完善、农业机械化水平低、土地流转程度低、无政策扶持产业相结合),组合A2(农业生产设施完善、农业机械化水平低、土地流转程度低、农业劳动力充足、无政策支持产业相结合),组合A3(交通便利、农业生产设施完善、农业机械化水平低、农业劳动力充足、无政策支持产业相结合),组合A4(交通便利、农业机械化水平低、土地流转程度低、农业劳动力充足、政策扶持产业相结合),组合A5(交通不便、农业生产设施完善、农业机械化水平低、土地流转程度高、农业劳动力充足、政策扶持产业相结合)。(3)在耕地撂荒现象的条件组合中,核心条件与辅助条件共同对耕地撂荒产生影响。最后,本文提出了相应的政策建议,以期能更深层次地揭示耕地撂荒的机理,为政策制定者正确决策提供全新的思路和方法,进而促进耕地的有效利用。 相似文献
3.
Global understanding of farmland abandonment: A review and prospects 总被引：11，自引：3，他引：8
Since the 1950s, noteworthy farmland abandonment has been occurring in many developed countries and some developing countries. This global land use phenomenon has fundamentally altered extensive rural landscapes. A review of global farmland abandonment under the headings of “land use change–driving mechanisms–impacts and consequences–policy responses” found the following: (1) Farmland abandonment has occurred primarily in developed countries in Europe and North America, but the extent of abandonment has varied significantly. (2) Changing socio-economic factors were the primary driving forces for the farmland abandonment. And land marginalization was the fundamental cause, which was due to the drastic increase of farming opportunity cost, while the direct factor for abandonment was the shrink of agricultural labor forces. (3) Whether to abandon, to what extent and its spatial distributions were finally dependent on integrated effect from the physical conditions, laborer attributes, farming and regional socio-economic conditions at the village, household and parcel scales. With the exception of Eastern Europe, farmland abandonment was more likely to occur in mountainous and hilly areas, due to their unfavorable farming conditions. (4) A study of farmland abandonment should focus on its ecological and environmental effects, while which is more positive or more negative are still in dispute. (5) Increasing agricultural subsidies will be conductive to slowing the rate of farmland abandonment, but this is not the only measure that needs to be implemented.Due to China’s rapid urbanization, there is a high probability that the rate of abandonment will increase in the near future. However, very little research has focused on this rapid land-use trend in China, and, as a result, there is an inadequate understanding of the dynamic mechanisms and consequences of this phenomenon. This paper concludes by suggesting some future directions for further research in China. These directions include monitoring regional and national abandonment dynamics, analyzing trends, assessing the risks and socio-economic effects of farmland abandonment, and informing policy making. 相似文献
4.
Effectiveness of farmland transfer in alleviating farmland abandonment in mountain regions 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Farmland abandonment is a type of land use change in the mountain region, and this change is under rapid development. Whether farmland transfer can prevent this process and promote the effective allocation of land resources or not is a question worth studying and discussion. With the help of the previous research findings, the objective of this paper was to find out the role of farmland transfer on preventing farmland abandonment, by using the methods of multiple view with two factors, and single factor correlation analysis. The results showed that: (1) At village level, a significant negative correlation between farmland transfer and farmland abandonment existed in the study site, with R2 = 0.7584. This correlation of farmland with high grade farming conditions presented more outstandingly. The fitted curve for the farmland at Level I had the largest R2 at 0.288, while that for the farmland at Level IV had the smallest R2 at 0.103. Which indicated that farmland transfer could prevent the abandonment of farmland with high grade farming conditions? (2) At plot level, the abandonment rate of farmland with high grade farming conditions was significantly lower than that of farmland with poor grade farming conditions. It was the lowest at 10.49% for the farmland with Level I farming conditions, whereas the farmland with Level I farming conditions was 26.21%. Abandoned farmland was mainly contributed by farmland with Level IV farming conditions in the study site. (3) At village level, the role of farming conditions on farmland abandonment was insignificant. The univariate correlation analysis revealed that the abandonment ratio was negatively correlated with the proportions of farmland at Levels I and II and their accumulated proportion; however, their R2 were small at 0.194, 0.258, and 0.275, respectively. The abandonment of farmland with high farming conditions still existed. The abandonment ratios of farmland at Levels I and II were high at 9.96% and 10.60%, respectively. This presented that farmland transfer on behalf of the land rental market was still not developed. (4) However, the village possessed the high rate of farmland transfer, and its rate of farmland abandonment with high grade farming conditions was all lower. When the transfer ratios of farmland were over 20%, the abandonment ratios of farmland at Levels I and II were 6.47% and 6.92%, respectively. Farmland abandonment was still controlled by the improvement of land rental market. And the functions of land rental market optimizing the utilization of farmland resources have been presented to a certain degree. (5) To further improve the marketing degree of land rental, the probability of farmland abandonment could be reduced. Especially, their function to farmland with high grade farming conditions was very obvious, and could avoid the waste of farmland resources with high grade farming conditions. 相似文献
5.
《地理学报(英文版)》2016,(2)
Farmland abandonment is a type of land use change in the mountain region,and this change is under rapid development. Whether farmland transfer can prevent this process and promote the effective allocation of land resources or not is a question worth studying and discussion. With the help of the previous research findings,the objective of this paper was to find out the role of farmland transfer on preventing farmland abandonment,by using the methods of multiple view with two factors,and single factor correlation analysis. The results showed that:(1) At village level,a significant negative correlation between farmland transfer and farmland abandonment existed in the study site,with R2 = 0.7584. This correlation of farmland with high grade farming conditions presented more outstandingly. The fitted curve for the farmland at Level I had the largest R2 at 0.288,while that for the farmland at Level IV had the smallest R2 at 0.103. Which indicated that farmland transfer could prevent the abandonment of farmland with high grade farming conditions?(2) At plot level,the abandonment rate of farmland with high grade farming conditions was significantly lower than that of farmland with poor grade farming conditions. It was the lowest at 10.49% for the farmland with Level I farming conditions,whereas the farmland with Level I farming conditions was 26.21%. Abandoned farmland was mainly contributed by farmland with Level IV farming conditions in the study site.(3) At village level,the role of farming conditions on farmland abandonment was insignificant. The univariate correlation analysis revealed that the abandonment ratio was negatively correlated with the proportions of farmland at Levels I and II and their accumulated proportion; however,their R2 were small at 0.194,0.258,and 0.275,respectively. The abandonment of farmland with high farming conditions still existed. The abandonment ratios of farmland at Levels I and II were high at 9.96% and 10.60%,respectively. This presented that farmland transfer on behalf of the land rental market was still not developed.(4) However,the village possessed the high rate of farmland transfer,and its rate of farmland abandonment with high grade farming conditions was all lower. When the transfer ratios of farmland were over 20%,the abandonment ratios of farmland at Levels I and II were 6.47% and 6.92%,respectively. Farmland abandonment was still controlled by the improvement of land rental market. And the functions of land rental market optimizing the utilization of farmland resources have been presented to a certain degree.(5) To further improve the marketing degree of land rental,the probability of farmland abandonment could be reduced. Especially,their function to farmland with high grade farming conditions was very obvious,and could avoid the waste of farmland resources with high grade farming conditions. 相似文献
6.
中国山区耕地利用边际化表现及其机理 总被引：19，自引：4，他引：15
耕地利用边际化是当前中国山区土地利用主要变化趋势。利用《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》资料,本文首先分析2003年以来农业劳动力价格快速上涨的背景下,中国农业生产成本的结构变化以及农户的响应,并对比平原和山区农户对劳动力成本上升的响应方式及程度的差异,发现平原地区能够通过大规模的农业机械替代减少劳动投入,进而有效减少劳动力价格上升所带来的影响,而山区因地形条件限制,劳动生产率提升相对缓慢,并与平原地区的差距不断扩大,导致农业劳动力成本占比不断上涨。随着劳动力成本的快速上涨,中国山区耕地边际化特征明显,以玉米为代表的种植业净利润在2013年普遍降至零以下。2000年以来,中国山区土地利用和植被变化表现为耕地面积减少、森林面积增加、NDVI指数增强,而且在省级层次上,山区县范围NDVI变化率与耕地和森林面积变化率分别具有很强的负相关（r = -0.70）和正相关（r = 0.91）,证实了中国山区耕地当前边际化的发展态势。基于以上分析,本文最后对务农机会成本上升、农业劳动力快速析出背景下的山区耕地利用边际化机理进行了总结。这一研究有助于深入认识山区耕地撂荒和森林转型的发展过程。 相似文献
7.
山区耕地边际化特征及其动因与政策含义 总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9
利用SPOT-5 影像、1：1 万地形图、退耕还林和森林工程图、社会经济统计等数据,分析了重庆市石柱县耕地边际化的特征和发生原因。结果发现：① 10 年间研究区耕地边际化率16.18%,主要分布于七曜山的北部高山区和南部中山区,而且伴随农村劳动力的非农化和留守劳动力的老龄化,边际化在很大程度上还会加剧。② 海拔、地块相对村庄的分布半径和道路连接度对耕地边际化的发生影响较大。边际化率随海拔升高而增加,特别是≥1000 m集中边际化的60.88%,在坡度和地块相对村庄的分布半径上也有类似规律。③ 劳均耕地面积和务农劳均年龄是影响耕地边际化的主要因素,耕地流转和微型农机台数是从适度规模经营、提高劳动生产率上影响耕地边际化。④“比较劣势主导边际化”分布最广,占总边际化的55.32%,其次是“区位主导边际化”,占33.80%。⑤“地形主导边际化”实施类似退耕还林继续扩大的“顺边际化”政策,“区位主导边际化”从合理安排新居点、完善农村道路体系上实施“反边际化”,“比较劣势主导边际化”从提高适度规模经营、微型机械化程度上开展“反边际化”。 相似文献
8.
丘陵山区梯田撂荒现象频发,成为政府农业部门和学术界关注的热点问题。然而,鲜有研究关注劳动力转移差异对农户梯田撂荒行为的影响。基于此,本文以湘闽赣三省梯田区为研究区域,结合实地调研的1438份农户数据,运用Probit和Tobit模型,从劳动力转移差异的视角,分析劳动力非农转移的数量、距离和质量差异对农户梯田撂荒决策和撂荒规模的影响。结果表明：(1)农户家庭劳动力非农就业的数量、就业距离和就业质量均对农户的梯田撂荒决策和撂荒规模具有显著的促进作用;(2)随着非农转移程度的加深,丘陵山区农户梯田撂荒的规模也会扩大;(3)劳动力转移距离和转移质量能够强化劳动力转移数量对农户撂荒决策的影响。为缓解因劳动力非农转移造成的梯田撂荒现象,要重视农业服务外包和机械化在山区的劳动替代作用,积极推进梯田宜机化改造,完善耕地流转市场,鼓励农户流转梯田。 相似文献
9.
耕地撂荒研究进展及启示 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本文运用文献计量方法对1992-2019年在Web of Science数据库中发表的耕地撂荒领域的910篇文献进行总量和关键词分析,并根据关键词领域从耕地撂荒监测与制图、驱动力与影响因素、效应评估与权衡三个方面进行主题综述。研究发现:(1)目前撂荒耕地的提取与制图渠道以农户调研与遥感技术为主,结合空间信息的NDVI时间序列撂荒地提取方法具有较高精度;(2)从作用程度、来源、属性三个维度对耕地撂荒的驱动力和影响因素进行归纳,发现耕地边际化是耕地撂荒的根本驱动力,劳动力析出是耕地撂荒的直接驱动力,社会经济因素是主要驱动力;(3)耕地撂荒的环境效应具有空间异质性,时空差异、景观环境、气候、耕种、地形特征均会对耕地撂荒的环境效应起决定作用;耕地撂荒效应权衡主要集中在生态系统服务功能和价值领域,但相关空间背景的作用往往被忽略。在系统梳理现有文献的基础上,本文从开展全国层面的撂荒耕地调查、开展多尺度的撂荒驱动力研究、结合国情开展撂荒效应权衡研究等方面对未来耕地撂荒研究进行展望。 相似文献
10.
以湖北省武汉、孝感的832个农户为例,运用Bivariate Probit模型分析不同类型功能区农地经营权流转市场状况及影响农户流转决策的关键因素,探寻促进流转市场建设的差别化激励措施。结果表明:(1)重点开发区、农产品主产区农地流转市场活跃度与生态功能区相比具有比较优势,调研农户农地流转率依次为50.73%,70.50%,28.94%。(2)农地流转市场活跃度较高区域租金水平及非农就业率对农地流转起主导作用,农民生计转型依赖于收入水平能否满足家庭需求;活跃度较低区域家庭收入水平对农地流转起主导作用,农户流转意识相对薄弱。(3)重点开发区受无收入成员比重、非农就业率及规划管制影响显著,农地转出市场活跃;农产品主产区受男性劳动力比例、就业率及收入水平影响显著,小农经营模式短期内难以改变;生态功能区受劳动力人均耕地面积、非农就业率及收入水平共同作用,适宜发展生态农业。 相似文献
11.
黑河中游地区耕地景观演变及社会经济驱动力分析 总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4
选取1987~2010年的土地利用数据,运用变化轨迹分析方法以及景观指数表征黑河中游地区耕地景观的演变过程,采用偏最小二乘回归模型分析耕地景观演变的驱动力。结果表明：从耕地的变化轨迹来看,研究期间耕地的扩张是黑河中游地区耕地景观演变的主要趋势;从空间上来看,扩张型耕地和缩减型耕地分布趋向集中,主要集中在稳定型耕地边缘,同时耕地扩张的方向趋向河流;从驱动因素分析来看,总人口、城市化、产业发展、机电井数等是促使耕地景观演变的主要社会经济驱动因素,但是各个驱动因素的驱动作用均有差异。 相似文献
12.
重庆市山区农户耕地转入特征及其影响因素 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
耕地流转有利于缓解耕地撂荒和闲置问题,促进土地规模化经营,但已有山区的研究侧重耕地转出,且未深入分析农户耕地转入的特征.本文运用重庆市“两翼”地区12 个典型村的1015 份农户调查问卷,从地块尺度详细分析了农户耕地转入的特征,并通过Tobit 模型,定量分析了农户转入耕地面积的影响因素.结果表明:①农户多无偿转入耕地,但仍主要转入质量好、坡度小、离家近的地块;因受地形影响,转入地块又多为旱地,且难灌溉、面积小,并存在“去粮化”和粗放化经营.②农户特征方面,转入耕地的农户多为普通农户,经营耕地规模小、效益低,且地块细碎化程度高.③影响因素方面,农业劳动力比例、农业收入、农具数量和耕作面积对农户转入耕地面积有显著正向影响,而户主年龄、地块平均面积和地区哑变量则武隆县有显著负向影响. 相似文献
13.
北京耕地流失的时空动态与调控途径研究 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10
在国际学术前沿土地变化科学的概念框架下, 耕地非农化及其调控机制研究成为核心问 题之一。研究中国快速城市化地区耕地非农化的驱动力及其调控机制, 不仅是现实的迫切需求, 也可在国际相关学术领域做出独特贡献。以北京为案例进行研究发现: 1996~2004 年北京土地利 用变化中, 大多数地类转换都与耕地直接有关, 耕地流失是北京土地利用变化的核心问题; 城镇 扩展主要占用耕地, 且耕地生产力高的平原地区因建设占用而流失的耕地量大; 远郊山区耕地被 建设占用的压力相对较小, 但被生态用地占用的压力相对较大; 人口增长、经济发展、政府行为与 决策是北京等经济快速发展地区耕地流失的重要驱动因素, 解决途径关键在于寻求耕地保护与 耕地非农利用之间的平衡点、积极发挥土地管理政策的调控作用。 相似文献
14.
文章试图分析海峡两岸在1952－1998年农地的数量变化趋势，并从经济政策的角度解释这种变化的原因。研究表明，由于不同的宏观经济政策，特别是工业化的不同路径，导致了两岸农地数量变化的速率呈相反的运动趋势，台湾的农地数量减少的速率随经济发展水平的提高由慢转快，而大陆农地数量的减少速率则由快转慢；在全球化背景下，台湾放松农地管制，释放农地有一定的合理性，但足够的农地数量对于大陆仍很重要。作者就大陆的经济发展与农地保护问题提出了建议。 相似文献
15.
基于CiteSpace软件国内外撂荒地研究进展与述评 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于Web of Science(WOS)和CNKI数据库中以撂荒地为研究主题的文献数据,借助CiteSpace软件对国内外撂荒地研究学科、作者、内容、热点、进程进行梳理,进而对撂荒地成因、机制、影响进行分析。了解国内外撂荒地研究历程和研究现状,并总结遏制土地撂荒的具体措施和办法,期待为中国撂荒地研究提供指引。结果表明：① 国内外学者对撂荒耕地的关注不尽相同,国外学者多研究撂荒地的形成机制,国内学者则侧重揭示耕地撂荒现象。农用地撂荒是国外的研究热点,撂荒政策、模型模拟和遥感技术运用是国内的研究热点。② 国内外撂荒地研究的发展历程有所差别,各阶段呈现出不同的研究特征。③ 撂荒地研究中国内外学者在成因、机制、影响、举措等方面有共识。建议学者采用地理空间大数据、流数据、遥感影像数据等,对撂荒地的时空模拟、趋势推演、风险评估等开展研究;探寻不同资源禀赋和社会经济背景下撂荒的驱动和演变规律,总结演化过程;提出自然-社会-经济等科学化、系统化的研究方法,丰富研究内容和成果;并开展村镇级小尺度案例研究,为理论深化和方法创新提供支撑,进而为小尺度区域的撂荒地生态修复与治理提供理论支撑和案例借鉴。 相似文献
16.
Farmland resources in mountainous areas are important for regional food security and ecological security. Studies concerning changes in farmland use in mountainous areas are of considerable significance in China. Here, we analyzed marginalization characteristics of farmland in Renhuai city from 2005 to 2011 and driving factors using land information systems, surveys of farmer households and statistical data. Our results indicate that from 2005 to 2011, 3095.76 hm2 of farmland was converted to forest land and natural reserve, accounting for 5.45% of the total farmland area. This suggests significant marginalization of farmland. Marginalization of farmland in mountainous areas was affected by topography, labor forces and effectiveness of land management. Farmland with a greater slope gradient was more likely to be abandoned; among marginalized land in Renhuai, a slope greater than 15° accounted for 62.26%. A high non-agricultural employment rate of rural labor force and annual income per capita of farmer households in mountainous areas were consistent with high speed farmland marginalization. Low land management benefits were the key reason for farmland marginalization. Although farmland marginalization was advantageous for eco-environment protection and sustainable development in mountainous areas, it resulted in inefficient land resource utilization. A win-win model for the exploitation and utilization of sloping farmland should be explored for production development and environmental protection. 相似文献
17.
不同类型农户撂荒及其影响因素研究——以重庆市12 个典型村为例 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
近年来,耕地撂荒因与耕地流失及粮食安全紧密联系而备受关注。反映撂荒现状并揭示其影响因素,有利于政府制定科学的政策、规划和计划。现有的研究多将农户作为一个整体,较少考虑到不同类型农户撂荒的差异。以重庆市12 个典型村为例,在农户类型划分的基础上,分析不同类型农户撂荒的差异,运用多元线性回归模型定量分析不同类型农户撂荒的影响因素。研究表明：① 不同类型农户撂荒的差异主要体现在撂荒户数比重、户均撂荒面积、撂荒面积占承包地面积比重随耕作半径的变化情况、撂荒地现状及不同时间段撂荒面积;② 野生动物影响和人均耕地面积是影响不同类型农户撂荒的共同原因。此外,影响基本型农户的因素包括户主外出经历、耕作半径和房屋离集镇距离;影响自然资产型农户的因素包括农业劳动力比重、户主外出经历、地块平均面积和耕地收益;影响人力资产型农户的因素包括家庭人口、非农收入、耕地转出面积和耕作半径。 相似文献
18.
河南省耕地利用效益时空分异及驱动因素研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
耕地利用效益变化与驱动因素分析对于合理利用耕地、实现耕地资源的可持续利用及利用效益的最大化都具有重要意义。通过建立测度耕地利用效益的指标体系和模型,分析了河南省耕地利用效益的时空变化及驱动因素。结果表明,河南省耕地利用经济效益和社会效益增长较快,生态环境效益保持稳定。耕地利用经济效益和社会效益的提高主要因为农业生产投入,生态环境效益的改善源于农村教育、卫生和社会保障投资。当前耕地利用主要是追求经济效益和社会效益,农业生态环境效益没有得到明显改善。 相似文献
19.
以武汉市蔡甸区为例，结合多源、多时段的村级农地流转数据，采用探索性空间分析和多元线性回归分析方法，揭示大城市近郊农地流转的时空特征及影响因素。研究发现：① 流转规模呈跨越式增长，经历快速增长和短期减速增长两个阶段，流转速度受土地政策影响较大；农地流转的空间分布由随机转向集聚，高高集聚区由主干道沿线转移至以农业为主的平原街镇，低低集聚区由不显著到集中于城镇化水平较高的街镇；② 控制自然、区位、社会经济等因素后，发现流转主体、流转用途对农地流转具有显著影响。建议清楚把握农地流转时空演化特征，合理选择流转主体和流转用途，以优化大城市近郊的人地关系，促进城乡统筹和乡村振兴。 相似文献
20.
中国县域耕地与农业劳动力变化的时空耦合关系 总被引：17，自引：3，他引：14
利用1996 年、2000 年和2005 年中国县域耕地与农业劳动力数据,基于GIS 技术和模型方法,分析了县域耕地面积与农业劳动力变化态势及其时空耦合特征。研究表明：① 县域耕地面积和农业劳动力变化均呈先增后减态势。1996-2000 年,耕地总量、劳动力数量分别增长2.70%和1.40%;2000-2005 年,耕地总量、劳动力数量分别减少1.51%和8.18%。②“胡焕庸线”是刻画中国耕地和劳动力变化格局的重要分界线。沿此线带状区域内因退耕还林造成耕地快速减少,而农业劳动力转移滞后;其西北部区域耕地快速增加,农业劳动力也在增长;其东南部区域耕地明显减少,而农业劳动力减少速度更快,二者呈现协调态势。③ 耕地非农化进程中县域劳动力转移效率呈下降趋势。1996-2000 年和2000-2005 年,全国分别有447 个和505 个县域的耕地减少和劳动力转移呈良性变化,90%的县域劳耕弹性系数(LFEC) 的中位数分别为4.58 和2.97。④ 基于SOM自组织特征映射神经网络聚类方法,可将1996-2005 年中国县域耕地与劳动力变化的耦合特征划分为9大类型区。多情景模拟分析表明,2005-2015年的LFEC趋势值为2.55。 相似文献