共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Seasonal prediction of East Asia(EA) summer rainfall, especially with a longer-lead time, is in great demand, but still very challenging. The present study aims to make long-lead prediction of EA subtropical frontal rainfall(SFR) during early summer(May-June mean, MJ) by considering Arctic sea ice(ASI) variability as a new potential predictor. A MJ SFR index(SFRI), the leading principle component of the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis applied to the MJ precipitation anomaly over EA, is defined as the predictand. Analysis of 38-year observations(1979-2016) revealed three physically consequential predictors. A stronger SFRI is preceded by dipolar ASI anomaly in the previous autumn, a sea level pressure(SLP) dipole in the Eurasian continent, and a sea surface temperature anomaly tripole pattern in the tropical Pacific in the previous winter. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Okhotsk High, lower local SLP over EA, and a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high. These factors are controlling circulation features for a positive SFRI. A physical-empirical model was established to predict SFRI by combining the three predictors. Hindcasting was performed for the 1979-2016 period, which showed a hindcast prediction skill that was, unexpectedly, substantially higher than that of a four-dynamical models' ensemble prediction for the 1979-2010 period(0.72 versus 0.47). Note that ASI variation is a new predictor compared with signals originating from the tropics to mid-latitudes. The long-lead hindcast skill was notably lower without the ASI signals included, implying the high practical value of ASI variation in terms of long-lead seasonal prediction of MJ EA rainfall. 相似文献
2.
The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations. 相似文献
3.
Nazzareno Diodato Gianni Bellocchi Francesco Fiorillo Gerardo Ventafridda 《山地科学学报》2017,14(9):1791-1800
Groundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action. Accurate estimates of groundwater discharge may be valuable in improving decision support systems of hydrogeological resource exploitation. The present study performs a forecast for groundwater discharge in Aquifer?s Cervialto Mountains(southern Italy). A time series starting in 1883 was the basis for longterm predictions. An Ensemble Discharge Prediction(EDis P) was applied, and the progress of the discharge ensemble forecast was inferred with the aid of an Exponential Smoothing(ES) model initialized at different annual times. EDisP-ES hindcast model experiments were tested, and discharge plume-patterns forecast was assessed with horizon placed in the year 2044. A 46-year cycle pattern was identified by comparing simulations and observations, which is essential for the forecasting purpose. ED is P-ES performed an ensemble mean path for the coming decades that indicates a discharge regime within ± 1 standard deviation around the mean value of 4.1 m~3 s~(-1). These fluctuations are comparable with those observed in the period 1961-1980 and further back, with changepoints detectable around the years 2025 and 2035. Temporary drought conditions are expected after the year 2030. 相似文献
4.
It is well known that Tropical cyclone(TC) activities over the Pacific are affected by El Nino events. In most studies El Nino phenomena have been separated into east Pacific warming(EPW) and central Pacific warming(CPW) based on the location of maximum SST anomaly. Since these two kinds of El Nino have different impacts on Pacific tropical cyclone activities, this study investigates different features of TC activities and the genesis potential index(GPI) during EPW years and CPW years. Four contrib- uting factors, i.e., the low-level absolute vorticity, the relative humidity, the potential intensity and the vertical wind shear, are exam- ined to determine which factors are most important in causing the anomalous TC activities. Our results show that during EPW years in July–August(JA0), TC activities are more frequent with stronger intensity over the Western North Pacific(WNP) and Eastern North Pacific(ENP). The maximum anomaly center of TC activities then drifts eastward significantly in September–October(SO0). However, centers of anomalous TC activity barely change from JA0 to SO0 during CPW years. In January–February–March(JFM1) of the decaying years of warming events, TC frequency and intensity both have positive anomaly over the South Pacific. The anoma- lies in EPW years have larger amplitude and wider spatial distribution than those in CPW years. These anomalous activities of TC are associated with GPI anomaly and the key factors affecting GPI anomaly for each ocean basin are quite different. 相似文献
5.
Long-term change of sea surface temperature (SST) in the China Seas from 1900 to 2006 is examined based on two different observation datasets (HadISST1 and HadSST3). Similar to the Atlantic, SST in the China Seas has been well observed dur-ing the past 107 years. A comparison between the reconstructed (HadISST1) and un-interpolated (HadSST3) datasets shows that the SST warming trends from both datasets are consistent with each other in most of the China Seas. The warming trends are stronger in winter than in summer, with a maximum rate of SST increase exceeding 2.7℃ (100 year)-1 in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait during winter based on HadISST1. However, the SST from both datasets experienced a sudden decrease after 1999 in the China Seas. The estimated trend from HadISST1 is stronger than that from HadSST3 in the East China Sea and the east of Taiwan Island, where the difference in the linear SST warming trends are as large as about 1℃ (100 year)-1 when using respectively HadISST1 and HadSST3 datasets. When compared to the linear winter warming trend of the land surface air temperature (1.6℃ (100 year)-1), HadSST3 shows a more reasonable trend of less than 2.1℃ (100 year)-1 than HadISST1’s trend of larger than 2.7℃ (100 year)-1 at the mouth of the Yangtze River. The results also indicate large uncertainties in the estimate of SST warming patterns. 相似文献
6.
The distributions of particulate and dissolved dimethylsulfoxide(DMSOp, DMSOd) were studied for the first time in the surface water of the South China Sea(SCS) in January 2010. The concentrations of DMSOp ranged from 2.6 to 56.8 nmol L~(-1) with an average of 11.1 ± 2.2 nmol L~(-1), and those of DMSOd ranged from 11.8 to 335.1 nmol L~(-1) with an average of 50.0 ± 16.5 nmol L~(-1). DMSOd dominated over both dimethylsulfide(DMS) and dissolved dimethylsulfoniopropionate(DMSPd) by 1–3 orders of magnitude and represented the major dissolved dimethyl sulfur pool. In addition, DMSOp/chlorophyll-a ratios varied from 2.7 to 180.7 mmol g~(-1) with an average of 30.5 ± 9.6 mmol g~(-1). DMSOd concentrations displayed a significant negative relationship with sea surface temperature(SST) and sea surfaces salinity(SSS) in the whole study area. The distribution of DMSOd in the coastal waters was obviously influenced by the Pearl River discharge, with high concentrations appearing around the river mouth. In the offshore waters, a significant correlation was observed between the DMSOp and DMSOd concentrations, suggesting that DMSOd was mainly from the diffusion of intracellular DMSO rather than from the photochemical and biological oxidation of DMS. 相似文献
7.
This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific (NWP) during the year of decaying El Niño. Observation data and the Fast Ocean-Atmosphere coupled Model 1.5 were used to investigate the triggering conditions under which the remote influence is formed between the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the North Indian Ocean and the Anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone (ANWPA). Our research show that it is only when there is a contributory background wind field over the Indian Ocean, i.e., when the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) reaches its peak, that the warmer SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean incites significant easterly wind anomalies in the lower atmosphere of the Indo-West tropical Pacific. This then produces the remote influence on the ANWPA. Therefore, the SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean might interfere with the prediction of the East Asia Summer Monsoon in the year of decaying El Niño. Both the sustaining effect of local negative SST anomalies in the NWP, and the remote effect of positive SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean on the ANWPA, should be considered in further research. 相似文献
8.
Changes in sea surface temperature(SST), seawater oxygen isotope(δ 18 O sw), and local salinity proxy(δ 18 O sw-ss) in the past 155 ka were studied using a sediment core(MD06-3052) from the northern edge of the western Pacifi c Warm Pool(WPWP), within the fl ow path of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current. Our records reveal a lead-lag relationship between paired Mg/Ca-SST and δ 18 O during Termination II and the last interglacial period. Similarity in SST between our site and the Antarctic temperature proxy and in CO 2 profi le showed a close connection between the WPWP and the Antarctic. Values of δ 18 O sw exhibited very similar variations to those of mean ocean δ 18 O sw, owing to the past sea-level changes on glacial-interglacial timescale. Calculated values of δ 18 O sw-ss refl ect a more saline condition during high local summer insolation(SI) periods. Such correspondence between δ 18 O sw-ss and local SI in the WPWP may refl ect complex interaction between ENSO and monsoon, which was stimulated by changes in solar irradiance and their infl uence on the local hydrologic cycle. This then caused a striking reorganization of atmospheric circulation over the WPWP. 相似文献
9.
10.
The eastern fall cohort of the neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, has been commercially exploited by the Chinese squid jigging fleet in the central North Pacific Ocean since the late 1990s. To understand and identify their optimal habitat, we have developed a habitat suitability index (HSI) model using two potential important environmental variables - sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) - and fishery data from the main fishing ground (165°-180°E) during June and July of 1999-2003. A geometric mean model (GMM), minimum model (MM) and arithmetic weighted model (AWM) with different weights were compared and the best HSI model was selected using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). The performance of the developed HSI model was evaluated using fishery data for 2004. This study suggests that the highest catch per unit effort (CPUE) and fishing effort are closely related to SST and SSHA. The best SST- and SSHA-based suitability index (SI) regression models were SISST-based = 0.7SIeffort-SST + 0.3 SICPUE-SST, and SISSHA-based = 0.5SIeffort-SSHA + 0.5SICPUE-SSHA, respectively, showing that fishing effort is more important than CPUE in the estimation of SI. The best HSI model was the AWM, defined as HSI=0.3SISST-based+ 0.7SISSHA-based, indicating that SSHA is more important than SST in estimating the HSI of squid. In 2004, monthly HSI values greater than 0.6 coincided with the distribution of productive fishing ground and high CPUE in June and July, suggesting that the models perform well. The proposed model provides an important tool in our efforts to develop forecasting capacity of squid spatial dynamics. 相似文献
11.
By analyzing the variability of global SST(sea surface temperature) anomalies,we propose a unified Ni o index using the surface thermal centroid anomaly of the region along the Pacific equator embraced by the 0.7°C contour line of the standard deviation of the SST anomalies and try to unify the traditional Ni o regions into a single entity.The unified Ni o region covers almost all of the traditional Ni o regions.The anomaly time series of the averaged SST over this region are closely correlated to historical Ni o indices.The anomaly time series of the zonal and meridional thermal centroid have close correlation with historical TNI(Trans-Ni o index) indices,showing differences among El Ni o(La Ni a) events.The meridional centroid anomaly suggests that areas of maximum temperature anomaly are moving meridionally(although slightly) with synchronous zonal movement.The zonal centroid anomalies of the unified Ni o region are found helpful in the classification of the Eastern Pacific(EP)/Central Pacific(CP) types of El Ni o events.More importantly,the zonal centroid anomaly shows that warm areas might move during a single warming/cooling phase.All the current Ni o indices can be well represented by a simple linear combination of unified Ni o indices,which suggests that the thermal anomaly(SSTA) and thermal centroid location anomaly of the unified Ni o region would yield a more complete image of each El Ni o/ La Ni a event. 相似文献
12.
XU Jianpeng ZHANG Quanqi QI Jie and WANG ZhigangLaboratory of Genetics Breeding College of Marine Life Science Ocean University of China Qingdao P. R. China 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2007,6(2):153-160
Tissue expression and stock variation of isozymes of stone flounder (Kareius bicoloratus) were analyzed with horizontal starch gel electrophoresis. For the fourteen enzymes assayed, 31 loci were recorded. The results indicated that all the isozymes ex- amined were obviously tissue-specific. The expressions of SOD*, GDH*, G3PDH-2* and ADH-2* were detected only in liver, SDH-1*, MDH-1* and ADH-1* only in muscle, and LDH-B* and LDH-C* only in eyes. In comparison, MDH-2*, GPI-3* and SDH-2* were detected in all tissues examined. Other loci examined were detected in a variety of tissues. Muscle and liver were se- lected to detect the isozyme variation of the two geographic stocks of Qingdao and Weihai, Shandong Province, China. The percent- ages of polymorphic loci (P0.99) were 29.17% and 25.00%, the observed heterozygosities (H0) were 0.028 ± 0.014 and 0.040 ± 0.019, and the expected heterozygosities (He) were 0.039 ± 0.017 and 0.052 ± 0.022 in Qingdao and Weihai stock, respectively. The coeffi- cient of gene differentiation (Fst) and genetic distance (D) between the two stocks was 0.012 and 0.0011, respectively, indicating that the genetic differentiation is low between them. Compared with other species of Pleuronectiformes, both the percentage of polymor- phic loci and the mean heterozygosity of K. bicoloratus were at a middle level. 相似文献
13.
14.
The relationships between the neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartrami, and the relative ocean environmental factors are analyzed. The environmental factors collected are sea surface temperature
(SST), chlorophyll concentration (Chl-a) and sea surface height (SSH) from NASA, as well as the yields of neon flying squid in the North Pacific Ocean. The results
show that the favorable temperature for neon flying squid living is 10°C–22°C and the favorite temperature is between 15°C–17°C.
The Chl-a concentration is 0.1–0.6 mg/m3. When Chl-a concentration changes to 0.12–0.14 mg/m3, the probability of forming fishing ground becomes very high. In most fishing grounds,
the SSH is higher than the mean SSH. The generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the correlations between
neon flying squid and ocean environmental factors. Every year, squids migrate northward from June to August and return southward
during October–November, and the characteristics of the both migrations are very different. When squids migrate to the north,
most relationships between the yields and SST are positive. The relationships are negative when squids move to southward.
The relationships between the yields and Chl-a concentrations are negative from June to October, and insignificant in November. There is no obvious correlation between
the catches of squid and longitude, but good with latitude.
Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2003AA607030); National
Key Technology Research and Development Program (No. 2006BAD09A05) 相似文献
15.
Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant. 相似文献
16.
????????????????????????????e???-???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????仯??Χ?-45×10-5ms-2??45×10-5ms-2????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????о??????????-????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Ms5.1???????????????????????????????????????????????? 相似文献
17.
Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed(WS) and significant wave height(SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988–2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform(CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III(WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988–2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s~(-1)yr~(-1) and 1.52 cm yr~(-1), respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Ni?o and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region. 相似文献
18.
Version 4(v4) of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature(ERSST) dataset is compared with its precedent, the widely used version 3b(v3b). The essential upgrades applied to v4 lead to remarkable differences in the characteristics of the sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly(SSTa) in both the temporal and spatial domains. First, the largest discrepancy of the global mean SSTa values around the 1940 s is due to ship-observation corrections made to reconcile observations from buckets and engine intake thermometers. Second, differences in global and regional mean SSTa values between v4 and v3b exhibit a downward trend(around-0.032℃ per decade) before the 1940s, an upward trend(around 0.014℃ per decade) during the period of 1950–2015, interdecadal oscillation with one peak around the 1980s, and two troughs during the 1960s and 2000s, respectively. This does not derive from treatments of the polar or the other data-void regions, since the difference of the SSTa does not share the common features. Third, the spatial pattern of the ENSO-related variability of v4 exhibits a wider but weaker cold tongue in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean compared with that of v3b, which could be attributed to differences in gap-filling assumptions since the latter features satellite observations whereas the former features in situ ones. This intercomparison confirms that the structural uncertainty arising from underlying assumptions on the treatment of diverse SST observations even in the same SST product family is the main source of significant SST differences in the temporal domain. Why this uncertainty introduces artificial decadal oscillations remains unknown. 相似文献
19.
Estimate of global sea-air CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux with sea-state-dependent parameterization
Although the annual global sea-air CO2 flux has been estimated extensively with various wind-dependent-k parameterizations, uncertainty still exists in the estimates. The sea-state-dependent-k parameterization is expected to improve the uncertainty existing in these estimates. In the present study, the annual global
sea-air CO2 flux is estimated with the sea-state-dependent-k parameterization proposed by Woolf (2005), using NOAA/NCEP reanalysis wind speed and hindcast wave data from 1998 to 2006,
and a new estimate, −2.18 Gt C year−1, is obtained, which is comparable with previous estimates with biochemical methods. It is interesting to note that the averaged
value of previous estimates with various wind-dependent-k parameterizations is almost identical to that of previous estimates with biochemical methods by various authors, and that
the new estimate is quite consistent with these averaged estimates. 相似文献
20.
????IGS????120??E???1999??2009??IONEX?????????????????????TEC?????????????С?????鷽??????????????????????????????????????TEC?????????????2009???TEC?????????????顣????????????????????????????????????TEC??仯?????????????????????Ч?????????????????????????????TEC?????????????????4.441 0??2.915 1 TECU??????????????23.26%??10.78%????????????????????????0.712 2??0.785 9?? 相似文献