Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述     

岳天祥  范泽孟  史文娇  赵娜 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(4):743-750

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。  相似文献   

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA     

Wang Shuangxu  Zhang Xi  Zhang Sixin  Xue Fuping 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(Z1)

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…  相似文献   

Evolutionary Processes in Low-Mass Binary Systems     

Peter P. Eggleton  Ludmila Kisseleva-Eggleton 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,296(1-4):327-336

We consider the evolution of certain low-mass binaries, incorporating models of (a) internal evolution, (b) tidal friction, (c) dynamo activity driven by an elementary α,Ω dynamo, (d) stellar wind driven by the activity, and (e) magnetic braking as a consequence of wind and poloidal dynamo-generated magnetic field. In some circumstances the stellar wind is found to remove mass on a nuclear timescale, as is necessary to explain some observed systems. We can hope that various uncertainties in the model may be clarified by a careful comparison of the models with such observed quantities as rotation periods. These are modified by processes (a), (b) and (e). Assuming that stellar evolution is slow, rotation rate should in some circumstances represent a balance between magnetic braking trying to slow the star down and tidal friction trying to spin it up. Preliminary attempts are promising, but indicate that some fine tuning is necessary. When there is a third body present, in an orbit which is inclined but not necessarily of short period, the eccentricity of a close binary can be strongly modified by ‘Kozai cycles’. We show that this may complicate attempts to account for spin rates of stars in close binaries.  相似文献   

隧道工程地质评价的内容和方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈新建  孙琳  李新星  孙巧银 《地球科学与环境学报》2004,26(1):41-45

结合工程隧道实际,首先阐述了隧道工程的基本地质环境和工程地质条件,然后针对隧道工程可能出现的不良地质现象和可采取的工程措施,从大气降水、围岩稳定、围岩压力、洞口稳定、隧道比选等角度探讨隧道工程地质评价的主要方法和一般内容,进行隧道工程地质评价,为隧道施工、支护提供了依据.  相似文献   

昆仑山8.1级地震前中国大陆的构造应变背景   总被引：10，自引：4，他引：6  

杨少敏  王琪 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(3):61-65

利用“网络工程”1998～2001年累积的1181个测站的GPS重复观测资料，采用双三次样条函数模型建立中国大陆水平运动模型速度场，用大地坐标在椭球面上计算各类应变场，详细分析了2001年昆仑山8．1级地震前中国大陆水平构造应变场空间分布特征。各类构造应变场的最高值都出现在喜马拉雅构造带与昆仑山地块内(地震断裂带南侧)，鲜水河—安宁河断裂带次之。分析表明，昆仑山8．1级地震正好发生在张性面膨胀应变率的高值区，第一、第二和最大剪应变率高值区边缘的突变区和最大、最小主应变率的高值区。  相似文献   

Consistent distances from Baade–Wesselink analyses of Cepheids and RR Lyraes     

Géza Kovács 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,342(4):L58-L62

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The Roche Limit     

I. P. Williams 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2003,87(1-2):13-25

The role of tides in deforming and possibly disrupting a secondary body orbiting about a primary body has been known for a considerable time. This was first inspired by the observations of ocean tides on Earth and then seen as playing an important role in the formation and evolution of the Earth–Moon system. Finally, in the beginning of the 20th century it was generally thought to have a significant role in the formation of the solar system through the tidal disruption of the Sun. Here, an overview of the historical developments of the ideas concerned with tidal disruption of a secondary body that can lead to mass loss is given. Some discussion of possible extensions to consider more realistic situations where the secondary body may not be moving on a circular orbit and may not rotate so as to maintain the phase-on configuration to the primary body is also given.  相似文献   

Seasonal variations in prey selection by estuarine black-headed gulls (Larus ridibundus)     

D.J. Curtis  C.G. Galbraith  J.C. Smyth  D.B.A. Thompson 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,21(1):75-90

The number of black-headed gulls (Larus ridibundus) in the Clyde Estuary is large. In summer the average density has reached 1350 gulls km^?2 and in winter 180 gulls km^?2. This paper compares prey selection and feeding efficiency in gulls during summer and winter on tidal flats, and considers how seasonal differences may be adaptations to cope with seasonal changes in prey availability.Gross and net rates of energy intake were highest in summer because gulls captured more of the polychaete N. diversicolor than the amphipod C. volutator. In winter, gulls selected for C. volutator and therefore an energetically less profitable diet. Throughout the year gulls selected more C. volutator relative to N. diversicolor than expected on energetic grounds and so apparently did not maximize potential net rate of energy intake.Gulls used three techniques to capture prey and made most intensive use of the ‘crouch’ technique. Crouching gulls attained a much higher net rate of energy intake than ‘upright’ or ‘paddling’ gulls.A log-linear model showed that (a) season, water depth and gull density determined feeding technique and (b) feeding technique and season independently determined foraging success and prey selection. Thus gull density and water depth acted on prey selection through imposed variations in feeding technique.Reasons for gulls selecting energetically unprofitable C. volutator and for the use of several distinct feeding techniques are discussed.  相似文献   

Tidal effects on temperature front in the Yellow Sea   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Ma Jian  Qiao Fangli  Xia Changshui  Yang Yongzeng 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2004,22(3):314-321

Temperature front (TF) is one of the important features in the Yellow Sea, which forms in spring, thrives in summer, and fades in autumn as thermocline declines. TF intensity ⋎S _T ⋎ is defined to describe the distribution of TF. Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled model, temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea was simulated with and without tidal effects. Along 36°N, distribution of TF from the simulated results are compared with the observations, and a quantitative analysis is introduced to evaluate the tidal effects on the forming and maintaining processes of the TF. Tidal mixing and the circulation structure adapting to it are the main causes of the TF. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).  相似文献