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基于神经网络的南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼渔场预报   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼是我国远洋渔业的重点捕捞对象;对南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼进行准确的渔场预报;可以提高捕捞效率;提高渔业的生产能力。本研究根据1993-2010年南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼的延绳钓生产数据以及海洋卫星遥感数据(海水表面温度;SST;海面高度;SSH)和ENSO(El Niño-Southern Oscillation)指标;采用DPS(data processing system)数据处理系统中的BP人工神经网络模型;以渔获产量(单位时间的渔获尾数)和单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE;Catch per unit of effort)分别作为中心渔场的表征因子;并作为BP模型的输出因子;以月、经度、纬度、SST、SSH和ENSO指标等作为输入因子;分别构建4-3-1;5-4-1;5-3-1;6-5-1;6-4-1;6-3-1等BP模型结构;比较渔场预报模型优劣。研究结果表明;以CPUE作为输出因子的BP人工神经网络结构总体上较优;其中以6-4-1模型结构为最优;相对误差只有0.006 41。研究认为;以CPUE为输出因子的6-4-1结构的人工神经网络模型;能够准确预报南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼的渔场位置。  相似文献   
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An important task of natural resource management is deciding amongst alternative policy options, including how interventions will affect the dynamics of resource exploitation. Yet predicting the behaviour of natural resource users in complex, changeable systems presents a significant challenge for managers. Scenario planning, which involves thinking creatively about how a socio-ecological system might develop under a set of possible futures, was used to explore uncertainties in the future of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery. This exercise stimulated thinking on how key social, economic and environmental conditions that influence fleet behaviour may change in the future, and how these changes might affect the dynamics of fishing effort. Three storylines were explored: an increase in marine protection, growing consumer preference for sustainable seafood, and depletion of tuna stocks. Comparing across several possible future scenarios, a number of critical aspects of fleet behaviour were identified that should be important considerations for fishery managers, but which are currently poorly understood. These included a switch in fishing practices, reallocation of effort in space, investment in new vessels and exit from the fishery. Recommendations for future management interventions in the Indian Ocean were offered, along with suggestions for research needed to reduce management uncertainty.  相似文献   
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Muscle samples were collected from 69 specimens identified as Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) (Temminck and Schlegel, 1844) in the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) between 1990 and 2000. Identifications before 1996 were based on body size and colour of the caudal keel; later identifications were mostly based on the shape of abdominal cavity. The tissue samples were tested with a diagnostic mitochondrial DNA marker that distinguishes southern bluefin Thunnus maccoyii (Castelnau, 1872) and Pacific bluefin tuna T. orientalis; 59 specimens were confirmed as T. orientalis and 10 as T. maccoyii. Specimens recorded as Pacific bluefin tuna by the shape of the abdominal cavity were correctly identified as T. orientalis, and this character can be used to identify large specimens landed on tuna vessels. Some specimens recorded as Pacific bluefin tuna on the basis of colour and size were T. maccoyii; and early records of T. orientalis in New Zealand waters, based on these characters, are unreliable. Unusual colour patterns were reported in some specimens of T. orientalis but not T. maccoyii. The Pacific bluefin tuna T. orientalis accounted for less than 0.3% of the bluefin tuna catch in the New Zealand EEZ during the 1990s.  相似文献   
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The modern fishery stock assessment could be conducted by various models, such as Stock Synthesis model with high data requirement and complicated model structure, and the basic surplus production model, which fails to incorporate individual growth, maturity, and fishery selectivity, etc. In this study, the Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment (JABBA) Select which is relatively balanced between complex and simple models, was used to conduct stock assessment for yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the Atlantic Ocean. Its population dynamics was evaluated, considering the influence of selectivity patterns and different catch per unit effort (CPUE) indices on the stock assessment results. The model with three joint longline standardized CPUE indices and logistic selectivity pattern performed well, without significant retrospective pattern. The results indicated that the stock is not overfished and not subject to overfishing in 2018. Sensitivity analyses indicated that stock assessment results are robust to natural mortality but sensitive to steepness of the stock-recruitment relationship and fishing selectivity. High steepness was revealed to be more appropriate for this stock, while the fishing selectivity has greater influence to the assessment results than life history parameters. Overall, JABBA-Select is suitable for the stock assessment of Atlantic yellowfin tuna with different selectivity patterns, and the assumptions of natural mortality and selectivity pattern should be improved to reduce uncertainties.  相似文献   
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长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnusalalunga)是主要的经济性金枪鱼鱼种之一,其空间分布与环境因子存在着密切联系。利用2012—2019年印度洋长鳍金枪鱼生产数据和海洋环境数据,包括海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、叶绿素浓度(chlorophyll a, chl a)和海表面盐度(sea surface salinity, SSS)构建印度洋长鳍金枪鱼时空分布神经网络模型。以空间(经度,纬度)、环境因子(SST, chl a, SSS)为解释变量,局部渔获量为因变量,变化隐含层节点数,构建了18个BP空间分布模型,并采用10×10交叉验证模型稳定性,以均方误差(meansquareerror,MSE)、平均相对方差(averagerelativevariance,ARV)以及拟合优度(R~2)作为不同模型精度与稳定性的评判标准,最终选取5-18-1(隐含层节点18)模型为最佳模型,其平均MSE值为0.02232,平均ARV值为0.511。利用最优模型预测结果与同期实际捕捞产量进行叠加对比发现两者具有一致性。环境因子敏感性分析表明海表温度显著影响印度洋长鳍金枪鱼渔场分布,其贡献率达到0.2。印度洋长鳍金枪鱼高精度BP神经网络时空分布模型为其资源的可持续开发与动态管理提供了一种新思路。  相似文献   
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This study estimates consumer demand for eco-friendly labeled canned tuna products in two distinct US marketing channels, conventional and natural supermarkets, to evaluate market-based incentives for conservation measures that affect fishing costs and retail prices. Using retail scanner data, this paper finds that US consumer demand for canned tuna varies depending on the species of tuna, what gear type was used, whether the can is sold in natural food or conventional supermarkets, and whether canned product is or is not certified as eco-friendly. The paper's main conclusions are that retail price premiums for eco-friendly products face upper limits due to consumer responses to higher prices, and are most effective when coupled with: (1) inelastic own-price elasticity of demand; (2) price premium signals that are transmitted from retail markets to raw material producers; and (3) limited retail consumption substitution possibilities with lower-priced conventional products that help maintain price premiums and that otherwise create conservation disincentives by increasing conventional supply. Results from this paper not only have unique implications for various forms of international tuna fisheries policy that incorporates or anticipates change in market behavior, but also could serve as a scientific reference to clarify the trade disputes.  相似文献   
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