ECMWF集合预报在安徽大别山区降水预报中的检验     

武英娇  杨浩  钱仙桃  曹晋娟  李冰 《湖北气象》2019,38(1)

利用2015年6月1日至8月31日ECMWF集合预报系统(EPS)51个成员的降水预报结果,基于安徽省大别山区12个代表站点1～3 d的逐12 h降水观测资料,采用TS评分、箱须图、泰勒图等方法,研究ECMWF集合预报降水结果在安徽省大别山区降水分级预报中的应用效果。主要结论如下:ECMWF集合降水预报中,08时起报的24 h降水量和20时起报的48 h降水量可参考性较大;降水分级检验中,晴雨预报正确率在70%以上,小雨和中雨的空报率较高,对大雨以上量级的预报能力相对较差;大型降水过程中,暴雨以上量级的预报需关注不同预报时效下降水量预报的变化趋势,个别成员对极端降水的表现也值得关注。  相似文献   

库岸公路竖向变形控制研究     

朱江林  张林洪  彭邵勇  李冰  胡乐文 《中国煤炭地质》2018,(1)

库岸路基边坡随水位变化发生沉降或隆起,产生不均匀竖向变形,从而使库岸公路出现局部沉陷、向下滑移,路面开裂等病害,必须采取合理的加固处治措施。采用有限元软件GEO-STUDIO中的SIGMA/W模块,以冷清公路库岸边坡为原型,建立计算用饱和-非饱和土岸坡的概化模型,并考虑渗流场-应力场耦合,分析库岸路基边坡在库水作用下锚加固和桩加固前后竖向变形(隆起或沉降)的变化。分析表明:未加固情况下,随着库水位升高和在正常蓄水位运行,坡体及其路面隆起,库水位降低坡体及其路面在先前变形的基础上发生沉降变形。在桩加固的情况下,沉降或隆起变形均比未加固情况的沉降或隆起变形小很多。在锚加固区域及其上部坡体,隆起或沉降变形也较未加固情况小很多。桩加固或锚加固后均使路面各点的垂直位移最大值和均值减小,垂直位移随水位变化率减小,路面相近点之间的隆起或沉降位移差减小。  相似文献   

预处理方法对重庆地区考古遗址粒度分析结果的影响     

李华勇  张雯清  罗传秀  李冰  邹后曦  梁志姣 《热带地理》2023,43(1):115-124

选取重庆石牛寺和大石洞考古遗址剖面,对比不同预处理方法对粒度测试结果的影响。研究表明：1)加蒸馏水浸泡或0.05 mol/L的(NaPO₃)₆分散剂,并用超声波震荡,分散效果均不明显,主要粒度参数与无预处理实验结果接近,表明物理性预处理方法既不能去除碳酸盐、有机质等杂质,也不能使样品中潜在的胶结团粒分散开。2)加H₂O₂可有效除去地层样品中的有机碎屑物,达到提纯无机颗粒物的目的。该方法预处理后,石牛寺考古遗址沉积物平均中值粒径最小,黏土体积分数最高,相比无预处理测试结果,砂体积分数降低50%左右,且在整个剖面中表现非常稳定;但对于大石洞遗址某些碳酸盐胶结物含量丰富的样品而言,该预处理方法作用有限。3)加10%稀HCl预处理后,石牛寺遗址样品中值粒径有所增大,砂体积分数基本持平,黏土体积分数显著降低,大石洞遗址黏土和砂体积分数同步减少,揭示黏土矿物可能在酸性环境下发生絮凝,从而导致体积分数减少。4)对于碳酸盐胶结物含量较低的环境考古样品,只需加H₂O₂除去有...  相似文献   

旧石器时代至商周时期贵州遗址空间分布及其自然环境背景(英文)     

李开封  朱诚  姜逢清  李冰  王鑫浩  曹波  赵小帆 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,24(3):526-538

This study presents an analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of 230 archaeological sites in Guizhou Province, Southwest China for three selected time periods from the Paleolithic Age to the Shang-Zhou Dynasties. The relationship between archaeological sites distribution and environmental changes is also discussed based on paleo-environmental proxies of δ18O and δ13C recorded in stalagmites from Southwest China. The results show that: in the Paleolithic Age(260–10 ka BP), archaeological sites were concentrated in the central, northwestern and southwestern parts of Guizhou, where the high-altitudinal karst landforms with many natural caves suitable for human habitation are developed. In the Neolithic Age(10–3.6 ka BP), most of human settlements were concentrated in the central, northwestern and southwestern parts, while, a fewer sites were found on river terraces in the southern and eastern parts, and the intermontane basins in the central and western Guizhou. During the Shang-Zhou Dynasties(3.6–2.2 ka BP), the sites were mainly distributed in the intermontane basins and on river terraces, which were suitable for primitive aerial farming. The analysis of paleo-environmental proxies of δ18O and δ13C since 260 ka BP suggested that climate fluctuations had little impact on human settlements in this study area. The distinct physical environment, especially the spatial patterns of karst landforms and arable land played an important role in the archaeological sites distribution of Guizhou.  相似文献   

全新世浙江地区气候变化对史前文化的影响(英文)     

吴立  朱诚  郑朝贵  马春梅  王鑫浩  李枫  李冰  李开封 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,(4)

The temporal-spatial distribution features of prehistoric cultures since the Holocene in Zhejiang region were comparatively analyzed based on GIS spatial analysis. Results show that the prehistoric cultures expanded gradually in this region before 4000 cal. a BP. The notable expansions occurred twice, one in the Majiabang-Hemudu cultural period, the other in the Liangzhu cultural period. Meanwhile, the prehistoric cultures were disseminated from west to east coast along river valleys. After 4000 cal. a BP, as represented by the Maqiao Culture, the distributed area of each prehistoric culture contracted. This is obviously due to the termination of spreading trends to east coast, which was simultaneously accompanied by two different modes of production and economic transitions in the north and south Zhejiang region respectively. The distribution of prehistoric cultures was closely related with Holocene sea-level fluctuations, especially on the banks of Hangzhou Bay, where the distribution changes of prehistoric cultural sites were greatly affected by sea-level changes, with the closest relationships between them. After 7000 cal. a BP, the process of lowered sea-level and regression-epeirogenesis provided wider terrestrial living spaces for prehistoric inhabitants. Based on the comparative analyses of the changes of prehistoric cultures and the environmental evolution information recorded in the Qianmutian subalpine peat of Mt. Tianmu and muddy area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea, it is indicated that the changes of prehistoric cultures were synchronized with environmental changes in Zhejiang region. Before 4000 cal. a BP, the eastward expansion of prehistoric cultures in Zhejiang occurred under the background of the Holocene Optimum, and was the expansion and extension under the joint influences of agricultural civilization and maritime civilization. However, after 4000 cal. a BP, the geographical contraction of prehistoric cultures in Zhejiang occurred under the back-ground of dry-cold climate trend and deterioration of coastal marine environment. It is evidenced from the above fact that the development, expansion and contraction of prehistoric cultures are positively correlated to environmental change. The change of the climatic environment is just the underlying reason for these changes and transitions of production modes and economic forms. Therefore, the climatic environment is the dominant factor of prehistoric culture vicissitudes in Zhejiang region, which has exerted great influence on distribution, dissemination, expansion and transmutation of the culture.  相似文献   

湿地定义研究进展   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

殷书柏  李冰  沈方 《湿地科学》2014,(4)

基于对湿地定义的概述,分析了各种湿地定义存在的主要问题及其根源,从湿地的发生学因素与诊断特征、"正常情况"与"非正常情况"、湿地定义的多样性、定义问题与边界问题的关系等方面,对湿地定义研究中的共识进行了剖析。分析结果表明,湿地土壤和湿地植被不是所有湿地个体共同的诊断特征,只有湿地水文特征是区分湿地与非湿地的本质特征;对湿地水文阈值的研究,至今还没有找到科学的理论和方法;湿地的客观外延是"正常情况下"的湿地外延与"非正常情况下"湿地特殊外延之和,目前所有湿地定义的外延与湿地的客观外延都不是全同关系,因而所有的湿地定义都是存在问题的;湿地定义研究中所有问题的根源都在于理论基础薄弱。基于逻辑学关于概念的外延确定与内涵确定的理论和方法,认为只有在构建湿地外延确定与内涵确定的理论、方法和科学性评价标准的基础上,才能科学地定义湿地;在明确湿地客观外延的基础上,将湿地内涵的概括具体化为对"要素—指标—阈值"的逐级概括,从而指出湿地定义研究的主体内容和方向。随着对湿地水文、土壤和植被特征研究的深入,湿地边界阈值会越来越明确,统一的、科学的湿地定义必将出现。  相似文献   

航空重力减振系统振动测试与分析     

屈进红  周锡华  李冰  王志博  乔扬 《物探与化探》2012,36(6):960-965

航空重力系统测量中,飞机发动机及机载环境引起的高频扰动将会严重影响航空重力系统的测量结果,而航空重力减振系统是有效解决高频振动的主要途径.因此,航空重力减振系统的减振效果,模态参数(固有频率、阻尼比和模态振型)是减振系统结构设计、评价的重要依据.笔者针对航空重力减振系统进行了多项振动试验,结果表明其固有频率避开了飞机发动机的周期振动频率,并且测点1在100 ～ 500 Hz高频中振动传递率在-18 ～-38dB,减振效果显著.  相似文献   

香格里拉卓玛铜铅锌多金属矿特征与资源潜力     

李冰  张世权  胡清华  颜寻 《云南地质》2012,(3):331-334

大脉状产出的卓玛铜铅锌矿,成矿母岩为印支期侵位于图姆沟组的石英闪长玢岩、石英二长斑岩构成的复式岩体。岩体由中心向外,具环状面型的"斑岩型"蚀变特征,矿化与硅化—绢云母化蚀变有关。由中心到外围,由深到浅,形成深部斑岩钼(铜)矿→中部矽卡岩铜矿→外围脉状铜铅锌矿的成矿系列特征,目前发现的矿体仅是斑岩型矿床分带中上部的大脉型矿体部分,深部具有寻找斑岩-矽卡岩型铜(钼)矿体潜力。  相似文献   

西准噶尔晚古生代花岗岩类侵入体(40)~Ar/(39)~Ar热年代学     

李江瑜  陈宣华  丁伟翠  王志宏  陈文  李冰  黄鹏辉 《大地构造与成矿学》2016,(2):386-404

西准噶尔成矿带夹持在天山断裂与额尔齐斯断裂之间,是中亚成矿域西部的核心区域之一,广泛发育晚古生代深成岩浆活动、走滑断裂构造和斑岩铜矿、造山型金矿成矿作用。本文在西准噶尔成矿带包古图岩体、康德岩体、加曼岩体、库鲁木苏岩体、别鲁阿嘎希岩体、哈图岩体、阿克巴斯套岩体、庙尔沟岩体、克拉玛依岩体及红山岩体采集12个样品,通过黑云母和钾长石(40)~Ar/(39)~Ar阶段升温测年,给出了该地区(40)~Ar/(39)~Ar冷却年龄。其中,黑云母(40)~Ar/(39)~Ar年龄处在326~302 Ma范围内,钾长石(40)~Ar/(39)~Ar年龄为297~264 Ma,反映了西准噶尔地区晚石炭世-中二叠世的区域中温冷却历史。结合前人报道的锆石U-Pb、角闪石(40)~Ar/(39)~Ar、辉钼矿Re-Os、磷灰石裂变径迹等年龄数据,构建了西准噶尔成矿带晚古生代岩浆侵入,成矿作用与构造抬升,以及晚中生代剥露过程的整个热历史;并与区域左行走滑断裂活动的时间进行了对比,讨论了(40)~Ar/(39)~Ar冷却年龄的构造意义。  相似文献   

欧洲TOPO-EUROPE地球科学探测计划     

李冰  陈宣华  董树文 《地球学报》2016,37(S1):58-74

探测地球的内部结构和组成是地质学家和地球物理学家的共同目标。欧洲TOPO-EUROPE计划是一个多学科协作的研究项目, 旨在解决欧洲大陆的地球深部与地表过程之间的相互关系及作用。该计划结合数据交互建模研究, 重点针对岩石圈记忆和新构造运动, 板块边界和板内变形的力学机制, 异常沉降和隆起的动力学机制, 以及与地表过程和地形演变间的相互联系。在TOPO-EUROPE天然实验区选取涵盖广泛地球动力学背景的研究区域, 通过地质学、地球物理学、大地测量学和地质工程学等多学科联合, 监测、成像、重建和建模技术等多方法的综合研究, 来恢复欧洲大陆陆内造山带和板内区域的深部结构及地表形态的四维演化。  相似文献