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11.
A detailed barotropic, baroclinic and combined barotropic-baroclinic stability analysis has been carried out with mean monsoon
zonal currents over western India, eastern India and S.E. Asia. The lower and middle tropospheric zonal wind profiles over
western India are barotropically unstable. The structure and growth rate of these modes agree well with the observed features
of the midtropospheric cyclones. Similar profiles over eastern India and S.E. Asia, however, are barotropically stable. This
is attributed to weak horizontal shear, inherent to these profiles. The upper tropospheric profiles, on the other hand, are
barotropically unstable throughout the whole region. The features of these unstable modes agree with those of observed easterly
waves. The baroclinic and combined barotropic-baroclinic stability analyses show that the baroclinic effects are not important
in tropics.
Though the barotropic instability of the mean zonal current seems to be res ponsible for the initial growth of the mid-tropospheric
cyclones, neither barotropic nor baroclinic instability of the mean zonal current seem to explain the observed features of
the monsoon depressions. 相似文献
12.
While the important role of land–ocean contrast (LOC) in the mean atmospheric circulation is well-known, an intriguing question remains as to whether LOC can also significantly influence the anomaly circulation. This question is particularly important in the tropics, where a large part of the variabilities is known to be due to convective internal dynamics, which in turn can be significantly affected by LOC. In the present work, we investigate this question using a model of convectively driven anomaly circulation in the tropics. Emphasizing the lower tropospheric flow, we adopt a model describing the horizontal dynamics of the first baroclinic mode on an equatorial β-plane, in the presence of moist feedbacks. We introduce LOC in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. Land surface dryness is taken into account in the moisture budget through the control of evaporative flux. A constant non-latent heating term is used over land in order to represent radiative and sensible heating effects. First, a control run is performed, numerically, without any LOC using random initial perturbations. The gravest mode that emerges from the control run, which is a wave-2 feature with a period around 20 days, is then used as the initial field for the model runs with LOC. The results show that LOC can significantly influence even the tropical variabilities. A latitudinal LOC, with a land mass in the northern hemisphere (north of 10°N), tends to shift the region of maximum precipitation slightly north of the equator with accompanying steeper gradients near the land–ocean boundary. The implications of this result for our understanding of Asian summer monsoon conditions are discussed. When LOC is only in the longitudinal direction, the dominant wave structure that emerges from the model run has wavenumber one and a period of about 35 days, very similar to the observed 30–60 day oscillation. In our final experiment, which is nearer to the realistic land–ocean configuration in the tropics, it is found that both latitudinal and longitudinal effects of LOC are important aspects of the tropical anomaly circulation. It is suggested that some of the patterns in the precipitation distribution, observed in the tropics and simulated using general circulation models are results of convectively induced internal dynamics, modulated by LOC. 相似文献
13.
Praveen Gupta Amit Kumar Dubey Nandita Goswami Raghvendra Pratap Singh Prakash Chauhan 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):614-625
In the absence of many gauging stations in the major and mighty river systems, there is a need for satellite-based observations to estimate temporal variations in the river water storage and associated water management. In this study, SARAL/AltiKa application for setting up hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) and river flow simulations over Tapi River India has been discussed. Waveform data of 40 Hz from Ka band altimeter has been used for water levels retrieval in the Tapi river. SARAL/AltiKa retrieved water levels were converted to discharge in the upstream location (track-926) using the rating curve available for the nearby gauging site and using linear spatial interpolation technique. Steady state simulations were done for various flow conditions in the upstream. Validation of river flow model was done in the downstream location (track-367) by comparing simulated and altimeter retrieved water levels (RMSE 0.67 m). Validated model was used to develop rating curve between water levels and simulated discharge for the downstream location which enables to monitor discharge variations from satellite platform in the absence of in situ observations. It has been demonstrated that SARAL/AltiKa data has potential for river flow monitoring and modeling which will feed for flood disaster forecasting, management and planning. 相似文献
14.
15.
Based on a recent communication by the present authors the question of energy dissipation in magnetohydrodynamical waves in an inflating background in general relativity is examined. It is found that the expanding background introduces a sort of dragging force on the propagating wave such that, unlike the Newtonian case, energy gets dissipated as it progresses. This loss in energy having no special-relativistic analogue is, however, not mechanical in nature as in case of an elastic wave. It is also found that the energy loss is model dependent and also depends on the number of dimensions. 相似文献
16.
T. M. Lenton R. Marsh A. R. Price D. J. Lunt Y. Aksenov J. D. Annan T. Cooper-Chadwick S. J. Cox N. R. Edwards S. Goswami J. C. Hargreaves P. P. Harris Z. Jiao V. N. Livina A. J. Payne I. C. Rutt J. G. Shepherd P. J. Valdes G. Williams M. S. Williamson A. Yool 《Climate Dynamics》2007,29(6):591-613
We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework to undertake a systematic search for bi-stability
of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) for different surface grids and resolutions of 3-D ocean (GOLDSTEIN) under a 3-D
dynamical atmosphere model (IGCM). A total of 407,000 years were simulated over a three month period using Grid computing.
We find bi-stability of the THC despite significant, quasi-periodic variability in its strength driven by variability in the
dynamical atmosphere. The position and width of the hysteresis loop depends on the choice of surface grid (longitude-latitude
or equal area), but is less sensitive to changes in ocean resolution. For the same ocean resolution, the region of bi-stability
is broader with the IGCM than with a simple energy-moisture balance atmosphere model (EMBM). Feedbacks involving both ocean
and atmospheric dynamics are found to promote THC bi-stability. THC switch-off leads to increased import of freshwater at
the southern boundary of the Atlantic associated with meridional overturning circulation. This is counteracted by decreased
freshwater import associated with gyre and diffusive transports. However, these are localised such that the density gradient
between North and South is reduced tending to maintain the THC off state. THC switch-off can also generate net atmospheric
freshwater input to the Atlantic that tends to maintain the off state. The ocean feedbacks are present in all resolutions,
across most of the bi-stable region, whereas the atmosphere feedback is strongest in the longitude–latitude grid and around
the transition where the THC off state is disappearing. Here the net oceanic freshwater import due to the overturning mode
weakens, promoting THC switch-on, but the atmosphere counteracts this by increasing net freshwater input. This increases the
extent of THC bi-stability in this version of the model.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
17.
Saibal Gupta Aditi Das Sudipta Goswami Ananda Modak Suman Mondal 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2010,75(1):313-322
Inverted metamorphism in the Himalayas is closely associated with the Main Central Thrust (MCT). In the western Himalayas,
the Main Central Thrust conventionally separates high grade metamorphic rocks of the Higher Himalayan Crystalline Sequence
(HHCS) from unmetamorphosed rocks of the Inner sedimentary Belt. In the eastern Himalayas, the Inner sedimentary Belt is absent,
and the HHCS and meta-sedimentary Lesser Himalayan Sequence (LHS) apparently form a continuous Barrovian metamorphic sequence,
leading to confusion about the precise location of the MCT. In this study, it is demonstrated that migmatitic gneisses of
the sillimanite zone in the higher structural levels of the HHCS are multiply deformed, with two phases of penetrative fabric
formation (S1HHCS and S2HHCS) followed by third folding event associated with a spaced, NW-SE trending, north-east dipping foliation (S3HHCS). The underlying LHS schists (kyanite zone and lower) are also multiply deformed, with the bedding S0 being isoclinally folded (F1LHS), and subsequently refolded (F2LHS and F3LHS). The contact zone between the HHCS and LHS is characterized by ductile, top-to-the southwest shearing and stabilization
of a pervasive foliation that is consistently oriented NW-SE and dips northeast. This foliation is parallel to the S3HHCS foliation in the HHCS, and the S2LHS in the LHS. Early lineations in the HHCS and LHS also show different dispersions across the contact shear zone, implying
that pre-thrusting orientations of the two units were distinct. The contact shear zone is therefore interpreted to be a plane
of structural discordance, shows a shear sense consistent with thrust movement and is associated with mineral growth during
Barrovian metamorphism. It may well be considered to represent the MCT in this region. 相似文献
18.
Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
S. Abhilash A. K. Sahai N. Borah R. Chattopadhyay S. Joseph S. Sharmila S. De B. N. Goswami Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2801-2815
An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead. 相似文献
19.
S. Pattnaik S. Abhilash S. De A. K. Sahai R. Phani B. N. Goswami 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(2):341-365
This study investigates the influence of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) and Relax Arakawa Schubert (RAS) cumulus parameterization schemes on coupled Climate Forecast System version.1 (CFS-1, T62L64) retrospective forecasts over Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective. The forecast data sets comprise 45 days of model integrations based on 31 different initial conditions at pentad intervals starting from 1 May to 28 September for the years 2001 to 2007. It is found that mean climatological features of Indian summer monsoon months (JJAS) are reasonably simulated by both the versions (i.e. SAS and RAS) of the model; however strong cross equatorial flow and excess stratiform rainfall are noted in RAS compared to SAS. Both the versions of the model overestimated apparent heat source and moisture sink compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The prognosis evaluation of daily forecast climatology reveals robust systematic warming (moistening) in RAS and cooling (drying) biases in SAS particularly at the middle and upper troposphere of the model respectively. Using error energy/variance and root mean square error methodology it is also established that major contribution to the model total error is coming from the systematic component of the model error. It is also found that the forecast error growth of temperature in RAS is less than that of SAS; however, the scenario is reversed for moisture errors, although the difference of moisture errors between these two forecasts is not very large compared to that of temperature errors. Broadly, it is found that both the versions of the model are underestimating (overestimating) the rainfall area and amount over the Indian land region (and neighborhood oceanic region). The rainfall forecast results at pentad interval exhibited that, SAS and RAS have good prediction skills over the Indian monsoon core zone and Arabian Sea. There is less excess rainfall particularly over oceanic region in RAS up to 30 days of forecast duration compared to SAS. It is also evident that systematic errors in the coverage area of excess rainfall over the eastern foothills of the Himalayas remains unchanged irrespective of cumulus parameterization and initial conditions. It is revealed that due to stronger moisture transport in RAS there is a robust amplification of moist static energy facilitating intense convective instability within the model and boosting the moisture supply from surface to the upper levels through convergence. Concurrently, moisture detrainment from cloud to environment at multiple levels from the spectrum of clouds in the RAS, leads to a large accumulation of moisture in the middle and upper troposphere of the model. This abundant moisture leads to large scale condensational heating through a simple cloud microphysics scheme. This intense upper level heating contributes to the warm bias and considerably increases in stratiform rainfall in RAS compared to SAS. In a nutshell, concerted and sustained support of moisture supply from the bottom as well as from the top in RAS is the crucial factor for having a warm temperature bias in RAS. 相似文献
20.
A statistical analysis of the contemporary (1954-1975) solar flare particle events has been made for the parametersF (integrated, proton fluence in cm-2 in an event with kinetic energy above 10 MeV) andR
0 (the characteristic rigidity). These data are compared with the long-term averaged values determined from stable- and radio-nuclide
measurements of lunar samples. The analysis shows that the ancient solar flare proton spectrum was harder (higher R0 values) compared to that observed in contemporary flares. A similar analysis can not be made for the mean long-term averaged
flux (ˉJ, cm-2 S-1), since the contemporary averages suffer from an uncertainty due to the statistics of a single event. However, the average
flux estimates for time durations 〈T〉 exceeding 103 yr, are free from such uncertainties. The long-term averaged ˉJ values obtained over different time scales (104 - 106 yr) suggest a possible periodic variation in solar flare activity, with enhanced flux level during the last 105 yr. The available data rule out the occurrence of giant flares, with proton fluence exceeding 1015 cm-2 during the last million years. 相似文献