Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea     

P. Sebastio  C. Guedes Soares 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(3-4):576-584

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation of forces and geometry of a net cage in uniform flow   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Lader  P.F. Enerhaug  B. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2005,30(1):79-84

A scale model of a flexible circular net with different weights attached to the bottom was tested in a flume tank. Global forces and net deformation were measured for different steady current velocities. Three different sizes of bottom weights were used in the tests. The results from these tests are presented and discussed with the emphasis on the dependency between the forces and the geometry. Comparison is also made to empirical based formulas for calculation of drag and lift forces on net structures. Findings show that i) the forces on, and deformation of a flexible net structure are mutually highly dependent on each other; ii) estimates of global forces on a flexible net structure calculated using simple drag formulas derived from stiff net panel experiments give large errors when compared to experimental measurements; iii) numerical models taking into account the dependency between force and deformation should be used to obtain accurate estimates of forces on flexible net structures; and iv) the forces on a flexible net structure are dependent on Reynolds number, and their dependency are similar to that of a regular cylinder.  相似文献   

The dynamic behaviour of a river-dominated tidal inlet, River Murray, Australia     

B. Shuttleworth  A. Woidt  T. Paparella  S. Herbig  D. Walker   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,64(4):131

Australia's largest river, the River Murray, discharges to the southern ocean through a coastal lagoon and river-dominated tidal inlet. Increased water extractions upstream for irrigation have led to significantly reduced flows at the mouth and, as a result, the area is undergoing rapid change, particularly with regard to the rate at which sediment is being transported into the lagoon. Based on detailed and accurate bathymetric surveys it has been possible to estimate that the rate of lagoon in-filling is of the order of 100,000 m³ per year for the period June 2000 to May 2003, although the actual rate shows significant year to year variability. Dredging of the lagoon commenced in 2000 in an attempt to reverse the trend.In an effort to understand the behaviour of the inlet a one-dimensional numerical model of the inlet has been developed. The model extends the original of van de Kreeke by including a dynamic inlet throat area based on predicted river flows and a sediment transport module to predict the resulting net sediment transport. Comparisons with water level data collected on both the ocean and lagoon sides of the mouth have shown that the model is able to predict the attenuation and lag of the tidal signal reasonably well. The sediment transport model was based on predicted sediment concentrations in the surf zone and was found to predict the rate of sediment in-filling to an acceptable level of accuracy. It is envisaged that the model will be a useful management tool, especially since it is possible to manipulate river discharges to the mouth.  相似文献   

Impact of urban stormwater runoff on estuarine environmental quality     

Hueiwang Anna C. Jeng  Andrew J. Englande  Reda M. Bakeer  Henry B. Bradford 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,63(4):513-526

Urban stormwater runoff could contribute to the deterioration of water quality of a receiving water body. In this research, field studies and laboratory experiments were conducted to assess the microbial contamination resulting from urban stormwater runoff into the Lake Pontchartrain estuary. Fecal coliform, Escherichia coli and enterococci were used as indicator organisms. The specific objectives of the research were to examine the distribution of the indicator organisms in different environmental elements (water column, suspended particles and sediment) and to further investigate the mechanisms related to their fate. Results of the research indicated satisfactory water quality at the study sites during dry weather periods. However, a significant increase was observed in the concentrations of the indicator organisms in the water columns and sediment at specific study sites following a given stormwater event. Three to seven days were needed for the elevated indicator organisms to return back to their background levels in the water column and sediment, respectively. The mechanism of sedimentation contributed to a reduction in the microbial concentration in the water column, as the indicator organisms were found to attach to the suspended particles in the stormwater. The percentage of fecal coliform, E. coli and enterococci attached to the suspended particles was found to be within the range of 9.8–27.5%, 21.8–30.4%, and 8.4–11.5% of the total indicator organisms in the stormwater loaded into the estuary, respectively. About 75–80% of the total indicator organisms remained free-floating for some distance in the water column before dying off.  相似文献   

Native aluminium (spherules and particles) in the Central Indian Basin sediments: Implications on the occurrence of hydrothermal events     

Sridhar D. Iyer  M.B.L. Mascarenhas-Pereira  B. Nagender Nath 《Marine Geology》2007,240(1-4):177-184

We have sampled particles of native aluminium (Al°) in two sediment cores from the Central Indian Basin (CIB). The cores are geographically separated but are located at the base of two seamounts. The native Al° particles occurring as grains and spherules, have an average Al content of  95% and are associated with volcanogenic–hydrothermal material. Morphologically and compositionally, the specimens are similar to those reported from the East Pacific Rise. After ruling out several processes for the presence of the native Al°, we hypothesize that during progressive melting of magma, a basaltic magma is produced which has high contents of reductants such as methane and hydrogen, and a low oxygen fugacity. During the upward migration of such magma, reduction to metallic aluminium and the formation of native Al° particles takes place.  相似文献   

Path following control system for a tanker ship model     

Lúcia Moreira  Thor I. Fossen  C. Guedes Soares   《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(14-15):2074-2085

A two-dimensional path following control system for autonomous marine surface vessels is presented. The guidance system is obtained through a way-point guidance scheme based on line-of-sight projection algorithm and the speed controller is achieved through state feedback linearization. A new approach concerning the calculation of a dynamic line-of-sight vector norm is presented which main idea is to improve the speed of the convergence of the vehicle to the desired path. The results obtained are compared with the traditional line-of-sight scheme. It is intended that the complete system will be tested and implemented in a model of the “Esso Osaka” tanker. The results of simulations are presented here showing the effectiveness of the system aiming in to be robust enough to perform tests either in tanks or lakes.  相似文献   

An unsteady wave driver for narrowbanded waves: modeling nearshore circulation driven by wave groups     

Andrew B. Kennedy  James T. Kirby   《Coastal Engineering》2003,48(4):257-275

In this paper, we derive an unsteady refraction–diffraction model for narrowbanded water waves for use in computing coupled wave–current motion in the nearshore. The end result is a variable coefficient, nonlinear Schrödinger-type wave driver (describing the envelope of narrow-banded incident waves) coupled to forced nonlinear shallow water equations (describing steady or unsteady mean flows driven by the short-wave field). Comparisons with experimental data show that good accuracy can be obtained for cases of nonbreaking wave transformation. Numerical simulations show that the interaction of wave groups with longshore topographic nonuniformities generates strong edge wave resonances, providing a generating mechanism for low-order edge waves.  相似文献   

Time domain modelling of the transient asymmetric flooding of Ro-Ro ships   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

T. A. Santos  I. E. Winkle  C. Guedes Soares   《Ocean Engineering》2002,29(6):1428-688

This work aims at contributing to improve knowledge on transient asymmetric flooding through theoretical and experimental research. First, a time domain theoretical model of ship motions and flooding is described. Results from experimental work are presented evidencing that transient asymmetric flooding may cause the capsizing of a Ro-Ro shaped barge. The theoretical model is used to predict the capsize of the Ro-Ro shaped barge. Reasonable agreement between experimental and theoretical results was found. Finally, a review of the European Gateway accident is given and the theoretical model is applied to the study of this type of accident. The conclusion is that this theoretical model, together with an accurate modelling of the flooding of machinery compartments, reproduces successfully the capsizing of the European Gateway due to transient asymmetric flooding. Therefore, the internal arrangement of Ro-Ro ships should be carefully studied at the design stage in order to avoid this phenomenon.  相似文献   

Body weight, sexual maturity, and spinal deformity in strains and families of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) at two years of age at different locations along the Norwegian coast     

Kolstad  K.; Thorland  I.; Refstie  T.; Gjerde  B. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(2):246-252

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Seasonal variation in trawl codend selection of northern North Sea haddock   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ozbilgin  H.; Ferro  R.S.T.; Robertson  J.H.B.; Holtrop  G.; Kynoch  R.J. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(4):737-748

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