Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Deliang CHEN  Christine ACHBERGER  Jouni R¨AIS¨ANEN  Cecilia HELLSTR¨OM 《大气科学进展》2006,23(1):54-60

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.  相似文献   

The presolar grain inventory of fine‐grained chondrule rims in the Mighei‐type (CM) chondrites     

Jan Leitner  Knut Metzler  Christian Vollmer  Christine Floss  Pierre Haenecour  Jnos Kodolnyi  Dennis Harries  Peter Hoppe 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2020,55(6):1176-1206

We investigated the inventory of presolar silicate, oxide, and silicon carbide (SiC) grains of fine‐grained chondrule rims in six Mighei‐type (CM) carbonaceous chondrites (Banten, Jbilet Winselwan, Maribo, Murchison, Murray and Yamato 791198), and the CM‐related carbonaceous chondrite Sutter's Mill. Sixteen O‐anomalous grains (nine silicates, six oxides) were detected, corresponding to a combined matrix‐normalized abundance of ~18 ppm, together with 21 presolar SiC grains (~42 ppm). Twelve of the O‐rich grains are enriched in ¹⁷O, and could originate from low‐mass asymptotic giant branch stars. One grain is enriched in ¹⁷O and significantly depleted in ¹⁸O, indicative of additional cool bottom processing or hot bottom burning in its stellar parent, and three grains are of likely core‐collapse supernova origin showing enhanced ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios relative to the solar system ratio. We find a presolar silicate/oxide ratio of 1.5, significantly lower than the ratios typically observed for chondritic meteorites. This may indicate a higher degree of aqueous alteration in the studied meteorites, or hint at a heterogeneous distribution of presolar silicates and oxides in the solar nebula. Nevertheless, the low O‐anomalous grain abundance is consistent with aqueous alteration occurring in the protosolar nebula and/or on the respective parent bodies. Six O‐rich presolar grains were studied by Auger Electron Spectroscopy, revealing two Fe‐rich silicates, one forsterite‐like Mg‐rich silicate, two Al‐oxides with spinel‐like compositions, and one Fe‐(Mg‐)oxide. Scanning electron and transmission electron microscopic investigation of a relatively large silicate grain (490 nm × 735 nm) revealed that it was crystalline åkermanite (Ca₂Mg[Si₂O₇]) or a an åkermanite‐diopside (MgCaSi₂O₆) intergrowth.  相似文献   

黄河入海口径流量和输沙量对黄河三角洲生态环境的影响   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

袁祖贵  楚泽涵  杨玉珍 《古地理学报》2006,8(1):125-130

20世纪后期黄河入海口的径流量减少和多次断流。这对流域下游地区的经济发展、尤其是农业产生明显影响。特别应注意的是,与径流量减少的同时,输沙量也明显减少,致使20世纪90年代以来入海口造陆面积锐减,在1996年和1997年甚至造陆停滞、出现海侵。黄河入海口的径流量、输沙量减少可能引发的一系列生态环境问题中,造陆面积的减少和海水的侵入可能关系到黄河三角洲的经济发展前途,近期则危及胜利油田的安全,应引起有关部门的关注。文中还探讨了用地球物理测井方法检测生态环境的变化。  相似文献   

Sponge and coral zooxanthellae in heat and light: preliminary results of photochemical efficiency monitored with pulse amplitude modulated fluorometry     

Christine H. L. Schönberg  Ryota Suwa  Michio Hidaka  & William Kok Weng Loh 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(2):247-258

  相似文献   

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褚永海  李建成  金涛勇  汪海洪 《大地测量与地球动力学》2009,29(3):104-108

????13??T/P???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Ubari-Murzuq????????????????????????????????????????′????????????????????????С?????Ku???κ?C???ι?????????????????????????????Ｐ???????仯??????  相似文献   

Dynamic stress concentration of an elliptical cavity in a semi-elliptical hill under SH-waves     

Qi Hui  Chu Fuqing  Guo Jing 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2021,20(2):347-359

The method of wave-function expansion in elliptical coordinates,elliptical cosine half-range expansion and Mathieu function were applied to obtain an exact analytical solution of the dynamic stress concentration factor(DSCF)around an elliptical cavity in a shallow,semi-elliptical hill.An infinite system of simultaneous linear equations for solving this problem was established by substituting the wave expression obtained by the Mathieu function including the standing wave expression of elliptical lining given herein into the boundary condition obtained by the region-matching method.The finite equations system with unknown coefficients obtained by truncation were solved numerically,and the results in the case of an ellipse degenerating into a circle were compared with previous results to verify the accuracy of the method.The effects of different aspect ratios,incident wave angles and aperture ratios on the dynamic stress concentration around the elliptical cavity were described.Some numerical results,when the elliptical hill was changed into a circular one,were analyzed and compared in detail.In engineering,this model can be regarded as a semi-cylindrical hill with an elliptical cylindrical unlined tunnel under the action of SH waves,and the results are significant in aseismic design.  相似文献   

长江品崇明东滩盐沼前缘地带悬浮泥沙横向通量的潮周期变化     

王初  贺宝根  周乃晟  许世远 《海洋学报》2009,31(1)

对长江口崇明东滩盐沼边缘及邻近光滩处的水深、流速和悬沙含量的潮周期变化过程进行了现场实测,并对横向悬沙通量进行了计算和分析.研究结果表明,在平静天气条件下光滩和盐沼上的流速过程有明显差异,植被缓流作用在落潮期更为显著,流速在涨潮由光滩向盐沼不断增大.与涨潮流速优势相对应,涨潮期平均悬沙含量是落潮期的1.8倍.横向悬沙通量以向岸输移为主,悬沙总通量与潮次内最大水深的四次方呈显著正相关.在平静天气条件下潮汐作用控制着盐沼前缘地带泥沙输移水平,盐沼滩面保持稳定淤积,前缘光滩淤积速率高于盐沼处的,盐沼逐渐向海延伸.在大风天气条件下潮次内的流速和悬沙含量水平提高了数倍,悬沙输移量大增,净输移仍以向岸方向为主,在盐沼上部和前缘光滩均可能在短期内发生大量淤积.  相似文献   

Impact of 4DVAR assimilation of rainfall data on the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems in a mei-yu heavy rainfall event   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

储可宽  谈哲敏 《大气科学进展》2007,24(2):281-300

The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model （MM5） and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation （4DVAR） system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales.
Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance.  相似文献   

Sr₂CoO_4-δ薄膜中的自旋玻璃态的磁性质研究     

储海峰  李洁  李绍  黎松林  王佳  高艳丽  邓辉  王宁  张玉  吴玉林  郑东宁 《海洋学报》2010,32(9):6585-6592

用脉冲激光沉积方法(PLD)在铝酸镧衬底上制备了c取向的高氧空位含量的锶钴氧薄膜.X射线衍射分析表明薄膜单一取向且没有明显杂相.原位的高气压反射式高能电子衍射仪(RHEED)监测显示,薄膜为层状生长.通过对薄膜磁化强度随温度、磁场及时间的变化曲线进行测量,发现零场冷曲线上可能存在两个特征温度:T_f和T_a.T_f为对应玻璃态的冻结温度而T_a对应少量的不缺  相似文献   

Coherent spectroscopy of a strongly driven triple quantum dot molecule     

解研  段素青  楚卫东  杨宁 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(11)

Based on a calculation model, we study the interference phenomena of serially coupled V-type and Λ-type triple quantum dots (CTQDs) driven simultaneously by a strong driving field and a weak probe field. Strongly depending on the configuration of the three-level CTQD, the probe absorption spectra, which are shown in the tunneling current, exhibit various quantum coherence properties. In the case where the two pairs of transitions of the CTQD have a small eigenfrequency difference Δω, the double-coupling effect of the driving field results in two Autler-Townes doublets and one weak Mollow triplet in one spectrum. With the value of Δω increasing, only one Autler-Townes splitting remains due to the single-coupling of the field. We also find that the effect of spontaneous emission of phonons may lead to an obvious background current, which can be used to distinguish which transition is driven by the driving field in experiment. The interesting quantum property of a CTQD revealed in our results suggests its potential applications in quantum modulators and quantum logic devices.  相似文献